Daily Papers

The work focuses on gathering high-fidelity and low-fidelity numerical simulations data using Nektar++ (Solver based on Applied Mathematics) and XFOIL respectively. The utilization of the higher polynomial distribution in calculating the Coefficient of lift and drag has demonstrated superior accuracy and precision. Further, Co-kriging Data fusion and Adaptive sampling technique has been used to obtain the precise data predictions for the lift and drag within the confined domain without conducting the costly simulations on HPC clusters. This creates a methodology to quantifying uncertainty in computational fluid dynamics by minimizing the required number of samples. To minimize the reliability on high-fidelity numerical simulations in Uncertainty Quantification, a multi-fidelity strategy has been adopted. The effectiveness of the multi-fidelity deep neural network model has been validated through the approximation of benchmark functions across 1-, 32-, and 100-dimensional, encompassing both linear and nonlinear correlations. The surrogate modelling results showed that multi-fidelity deep neural network model has shown excellent approximation capabilities for the test functions and multi-fidelity deep neural network method has outperformed Co-kriging in effectiveness. In addition to that, multi-fidelity deep neural network model is utilized for the simulation of aleatory uncertainty propagation in 1-, 32-, and 100 dimensional function test, considering both uniform and Gaussian distributions for input uncertainties. The results have shown that multi-fidelity deep neural network model has efficiently predicted the probability density distributions of quantities of interest as well as the statistical moments with precision and accuracy. The Co-Kriging model has exhibited limitations when addressing 32-Dimension problems due to the limitation of memory capacity for storage and manipulation.

Machine learning has emerged as a powerful solution to the modern challenges in accelerator physics. However, the limited availability of beam time, the computational cost of simulations, and the high-dimensionality of optimisation problems pose significant challenges in generating the required data for training state-of-the-art machine learning models. In this work, we introduce Cheetah, a PyTorch-based high-speed differentiable linear-beam dynamics code. Cheetah enables the fast collection of large data sets by reducing computation times by multiple orders of magnitude and facilitates efficient gradient-based optimisation for accelerator tuning and system identification. This positions Cheetah as a user-friendly, readily extensible tool that integrates seamlessly with widely adopted machine learning tools. We showcase the utility of Cheetah through five examples, including reinforcement learning training, gradient-based beamline tuning, gradient-based system identification, physics-informed Bayesian optimisation priors, and modular neural network surrogate modelling of space charge effects. The use of such a high-speed differentiable simulation code will simplify the development of machine learning-based methods for particle accelerators and fast-track their integration into everyday operations of accelerator facilities.

Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) leverages large language models (LLMs) combined with external contexts to enhance the accuracy and reliability of generated responses. However, reliably attributing generated content to specific context segments, context attribution, remains challenging due to the computationally intensive nature of current methods, which often require extensive fine-tuning or human annotation. In this work, we introduce a novel Jensen-Shannon Divergence driven method to Attribute Response to Context (ARC-JSD), enabling efficient and accurate identification of essential context sentences without additional fine-tuning or surrogate modelling. Evaluations on a wide range of RAG benchmarks, such as TyDi QA, Hotpot QA, and Musique, using instruction-tuned LLMs in different scales demonstrate superior accuracy and significant computational efficiency improvements compared to the previous surrogate-based method. Furthermore, our mechanistic analysis reveals specific attention heads and multilayer perceptron (MLP) layers responsible for context attribution, providing valuable insights into the internal workings of RAG models.

The striking fractal geometry of strange attractors underscores the generative nature of chaos: like probability distributions, chaotic systems can be repeatedly measured to produce arbitrarily-detailed information about the underlying attractor. Chaotic systems thus pose a unique challenge to modern statistical learning techniques, while retaining quantifiable mathematical properties that make them controllable and interpretable as benchmarks. Here, we present a growing database currently comprising 131 known chaotic dynamical systems spanning fields such as astrophysics, climatology, and biochemistry. Each system is paired with precomputed multivariate and univariate time series. Our dataset has comparable scale to existing static time series databases; however, our systems can be re-integrated to produce additional datasets of arbitrary length and granularity. Our dataset is annotated with known mathematical properties of each system, and we perform feature analysis to broadly categorize the diverse dynamics present across the collection. Chaotic systems inherently challenge forecasting models, and across extensive benchmarks we correlate forecasting performance with the degree of chaos present. We also exploit the unique generative properties of our dataset in several proof-of-concept experiments: surrogate transfer learning to improve time series classification, importance sampling to accelerate model training, and benchmarking symbolic regression algorithms.

Lattices are architected metamaterials whose properties strongly depend on their geometrical design. The analogy between lattices and graphs enables the use of graph neural networks (GNNs) as a faster surrogate model compared to traditional methods such as finite element modelling. In this work, we generate a big dataset of structure-property relationships for strut-based lattices. The dataset is made available to the community which can fuel the development of methods anchored in physical principles for the fitting of fourth-order tensors. In addition, we present a higher-order GNN model trained on this dataset. The key features of the model are (i) SE(3) equivariance, and (ii) consistency with the thermodynamic law of conservation of energy. We compare the model to non-equivariant models based on a number of error metrics and demonstrate its benefits in terms of predictive performance and reduced training requirements. Finally, we demonstrate an example application of the model to an architected material design task. The methods which we developed are applicable to fourth-order tensors beyond elasticity such as piezo-optical tensor etc.

Some stars are known to explode at the end of their lives, called supernovae (SNe). The substantial amount of matter and energy that SNe release provides significant feedback to star formation and gas dynamics in a galaxy. SNe release a substantial amount of matter and energy to the interstellar medium, resulting in significant feedback to star formation and gas dynamics in a galaxy. While such feedback has a crucial role in galaxy formation and evolution, in simulations of galaxy formation, it has only been implemented using simple {\it sub-grid models} instead of numerically solving the evolution of gas elements around SNe in detail due to a lack of resolution. We develop a method combining machine learning and Gibbs sampling to predict how a supernova (SN) affects the surrounding gas. The fidelity of our model in the thermal energy and momentum distribution outperforms the low-resolution SN simulations. Our method can replace the SN sub-grid models and help properly simulate un-resolved SN feedback in galaxy formation simulations. We find that employing our new approach reduces the necessary computational cost to sim 1 percent compared to directly resolving SN feedback.

Generative AI models have made significant progress in automating the creation of 3D shapes, which has the potential to transform car design. In engineering design and optimization, evaluating engineering metrics is crucial. To make generative models performance-aware and enable them to create high-performing designs, surrogate modeling of these metrics is necessary. However, the currently used representations of three-dimensional (3D) shapes either require extensive computational resources to learn or suffer from significant information loss, which impairs their effectiveness in surrogate modeling. To address this issue, we propose a new two-dimensional (2D) representation of 3D shapes. We develop a surrogate drag model based on this representation to verify its effectiveness in predicting 3D car drag. We construct a diverse dataset of 9,070 high-quality 3D car meshes labeled by drag coefficients computed from computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations to train our model. Our experiments demonstrate that our model can accurately and efficiently evaluate drag coefficients with an R^2 value above 0.84 for various car categories. Moreover, the proposed representation method can be generalized to many other product categories beyond cars. Our model is implemented using deep neural networks, making it compatible with recent AI image generation tools (such as Stable Diffusion) and a significant step towards the automatic generation of drag-optimized car designs. We have made the dataset and code publicly available at https://decode.mit.edu/projects/dragprediction/.

Transformer has shown state-of-the-art performance on various applications and has recently emerged as a promising tool for surrogate modeling of partial differential equations (PDEs). Despite the introduction of linear-complexity variant, applying attention to a large number of grid points can result in instability and is still expensive to compute. In this work, we propose Factorized Transformer(FactFormer), which is based on an axial factorized kernel integral. Concretely, we introduce a learnable projection operator that decomposes the input function into multiple sub-functions with one-dimensional domain. These sub-functions are then evaluated and used to compute the instance-based kernel with an axial factorized scheme. We showcase that the proposed model is able to simulate 2D Kolmogorov flow on a 256 by 256 grid and 3D smoke buoyancy on a 64 by 64 by 64 grid with good accuracy and efficiency. In addition, we find out that with the factorization scheme, the attention matrices enjoy a more compact spectrum than full softmax-free attention matrices.

Surrogate models are necessary to optimize meaningful quantities in physical dynamics as their recursive numerical resolutions are often prohibitively expensive. It is mainly the case for fluid dynamics and the resolution of Navier-Stokes equations. However, despite the fast-growing field of data-driven models for physical systems, reference datasets representing real-world phenomena are lacking. In this work, we develop AirfRANS, a dataset for studying the two-dimensional incompressible steady-state Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes equations over airfoils at a subsonic regime and for different angles of attacks. We also introduce metrics on the stress forces at the surface of geometries and visualization of boundary layers to assess the capabilities of models to accurately predict the meaningful information of the problem. Finally, we propose deep learning baselines on four machine learning tasks to study AirfRANS under different constraints for generalization considerations: big and scarce data regime, Reynolds number, and angle of attack extrapolation.

This paper introduces a novel surrogate modeling framework for aerodynamic applications based on Neural Fields. The proposed approach, MARIO (Modulated Aerodynamic Resolution Invariant Operator), addresses non parametric geometric variability through an efficient shape encoding mechanism and exploits the discretization-invariant nature of Neural Fields. It enables training on significantly downsampled meshes, while maintaining consistent accuracy during full-resolution inference. These properties allow for efficient modeling of diverse flow conditions, while reducing computational cost and memory requirements compared to traditional CFD solvers and existing surrogate methods. The framework is validated on two complementary datasets that reflect industrial constraints. First, the AirfRANS dataset consists in a two-dimensional airfoil benchmark with non-parametric shape variations. Performance evaluation of MARIO on this case demonstrates an order of magnitude improvement in prediction accuracy over existing methods across velocity, pressure, and turbulent viscosity fields, while accurately capturing boundary layer phenomena and aerodynamic coefficients. Second, the NASA Common Research Model features three-dimensional pressure distributions on a full aircraft surface mesh, with parametric control surface deflections. This configuration confirms MARIO's accuracy and scalability. Benchmarking against state-of-the-art methods demonstrates that Neural Field surrogates can provide rapid and accurate aerodynamic predictions under the computational and data limitations characteristic of industrial applications.

A recent trend in explainable AI research has focused on surrogate modeling, where neural networks are approximated as simpler ML algorithms such as kernel machines. A second trend has been to utilize kernel functions in various explain-by-example or data attribution tasks. In this work, we combine these two trends to analyze approximate empirical neural tangent kernels (eNTK) for data attribution. Approximation is critical for eNTK analysis due to the high computational cost to compute the eNTK. We define new approximate eNTK and perform novel analysis on how well the resulting kernel machine surrogate models correlate with the underlying neural network. We introduce two new random projection variants of approximate eNTK which allow users to tune the time and memory complexity of their calculation. We conclude that kernel machines using approximate neural tangent kernel as the kernel function are effective surrogate models, with the introduced trace NTK the most consistent performer. Open source software allowing users to efficiently calculate kernel functions in the PyTorch framework is available (https://github.com/pnnl/projection\_ntk).

Numerical simulations in climate, chemistry, or astrophysics are computationally too expensive for uncertainty quantification or parameter-exploration at high-resolution. Reduced-order or surrogate models are multiple orders of magnitude faster, but traditional surrogates are inflexible or inaccurate and pure machine learning (ML)-based surrogates too data-hungry. We propose a hybrid, flexible surrogate model that exploits known physics for simulating large-scale dynamics and limits learning to the hard-to-model term, which is called parametrization or closure and captures the effect of fine- onto large-scale dynamics. Leveraging neural operators, we are the first to learn grid-independent, non-local, and flexible parametrizations. Our multiscale neural operator is motivated by a rich literature in multiscale modeling, has quasilinear runtime complexity, is more accurate or flexible than state-of-the-art parametrizations and demonstrated on the chaotic equation multiscale Lorenz96.

Bayesian optimisation is a popular, surrogate model-based approach for optimising expensive black-box functions. Given a surrogate model, the next location to expensively evaluate is chosen via maximisation of a cheap-to-query acquisition function. We present an epsilon-greedy procedure for Bayesian optimisation in batch settings in which the black-box function can be evaluated multiple times in parallel. Our epsilon-shotgun algorithm leverages the model's prediction, uncertainty, and the approximated rate of change of the landscape to determine the spread of batch solutions to be distributed around a putative location. The initial target location is selected either in an exploitative fashion on the mean prediction, or -- with probability epsilon -- from elsewhere in the design space. This results in locations that are more densely sampled in regions where the function is changing rapidly and in locations predicted to be good (i.e close to predicted optima), with more scattered samples in regions where the function is flatter and/or of poorer quality. We empirically evaluate the epsilon-shotgun methods on a range of synthetic functions and two real-world problems, finding that they perform at least as well as state-of-the-art batch methods and in many cases exceed their performance.

Recent advances in neural surrogate modeling offer the potential for transformative innovations in applications such as automotive aerodynamics. Yet, industrial-scale problems often involve volumetric meshes with cell counts reaching the 100 millions, presenting major scalability challenges. Complex geometries further complicate modeling through intricate surface-volume interactions, while quantities such as vorticity are highly nonlinear and must satisfy strict divergence-free constraints. To address these requirements, we introduce AB-UPT as a novel modeling scheme for building neural surrogates for CFD simulations. AB-UPT is designed to: (i) decouple geometry encoding and prediction tasks via multi-branch operators; (ii) enable scalability to high-resolution outputs via neural simulation in a low-dimensional latent space, coupled with anchored neural field decoders to predict high-fidelity outputs; (iii) enforce physics consistency by a novel divergence-free formulation. We show that AB-UPT yields state-of-the-art predictive accuracy of surface and volume fields on automotive CFD simulations ranging from 33 thousand up to 150 million mesh cells. Furthermore, our anchored neural field architecture enables the enforcement of hard physical constraints on the physics predictions without degradation in performance, exemplified by modeling divergence-free vorticity fields. Notably, the proposed models can be trained on a single GPU in less than a day and predict industry-standard surface and volume fields within seconds. Additionally, we show that the flexible design of our method enables neural simulation from a CAD geometry alone, omitting the need for costly CFD meshing procedures.

The existence of a plethora of language models makes the problem of selecting the best one for a custom task challenging. Most state-of-the-art methods leverage transformer-based models (e.g., BERT) or their variants. Training such models and exploring their hyperparameter space, however, is computationally expensive. Prior work proposes several neural architecture search (NAS) methods that employ performance predictors (e.g., surrogate models) to address this issue; however, analysis has been limited to homogeneous models that use fixed dimensionality throughout the network. This leads to sub-optimal architectures. To address this limitation, we propose a suite of heterogeneous and flexible models, namely FlexiBERT, that have varied encoder layers with a diverse set of possible operations and different hidden dimensions. For better-posed surrogate modeling in this expanded design space, we propose a new graph-similarity-based embedding scheme. We also propose a novel NAS policy, called BOSHNAS, that leverages this new scheme, Bayesian modeling, and second-order optimization, to quickly train and use a neural surrogate model to converge to the optimal architecture. A comprehensive set of experiments shows that the proposed policy, when applied to the FlexiBERT design space, pushes the performance frontier upwards compared to traditional models. FlexiBERT-Mini, one of our proposed models, has 3% fewer parameters than BERT-Mini and achieves 8.9% higher GLUE score. A FlexiBERT model with equivalent performance as the best homogeneous model achieves 2.6x smaller size. FlexiBERT-Large, another proposed model, achieves state-of-the-art results, outperforming the baseline models by at least 5.7% on the GLUE benchmark.

MATSim (Multi-Agent Transport Simulation Toolkit) is an open source large-scale agent-based transportation planning project applied to various areas like road transport, public transport, freight transport, regional evacuation, etc. BEAM (Behavior, Energy, Autonomy, and Mobility) framework extends MATSim to enable powerful and scalable analysis of urban transportation systems. The agents from the BEAM simulation exhibit 'mode choice' behavior based on multinomial logit model. In our study, we consider eight mode choices viz. bike, car, walk, ride hail, driving to transit, walking to transit, ride hail to transit, and ride hail pooling. The 'alternative specific constants' for each mode choice are critical hyperparameters in a configuration file related to a particular scenario under experimentation. We use the 'Urbansim-10k' BEAM scenario (with 10,000 population size) for all our experiments. Since these hyperparameters affect the simulation in complex ways, manual calibration methods are time consuming. We present a parallel Bayesian optimization method with early stopping rule to achieve fast convergence for the given multi-in-multi-out problem to its optimal configurations. Our model is based on an open source HpBandSter package. This approach combines hierarchy of several 1D Kernel Density Estimators (KDE) with a cheap evaluator (Hyperband, a single multidimensional KDE). Our model has also incorporated extrapolation based early stopping rule. With our model, we could achieve a 25% L1 norm for a large-scale BEAM simulation in fully autonomous manner. To the best of our knowledge, our work is the first of its kind applied to large-scale multi-agent transportation simulations. This work can be useful for surrogate modeling of scenarios with very large populations.

Generative machine learning methods, such as diffusion models and flow matching, have shown great potential in modeling complex system behaviors and building efficient surrogate models. However, these methods typically learn the underlying physics implicitly from data. We propose Physics-Based Flow Matching (PBFM), a novel generative framework that explicitly embeds physical constraints, both PDE residuals and algebraic relations, into the flow matching objective. We also introduce temporal unrolling at training time that improves the accuracy of the final, noise-free sample prediction. Our method jointly minimizes the flow matching loss and the physics-based residual loss without requiring hyperparameter tuning of their relative weights. Additionally, we analyze the role of the minimum noise level, sigma_{min}, in the context of physical constraints and evaluate a stochastic sampling strategy that helps to reduce physical residuals. Through extensive benchmarks on three representative PDE problems, we show that our approach yields up to an 8times more accurate physical residuals compared to FM, while clearly outperforming existing algorithms in terms of distributional accuracy. PBFM thus provides a principled and efficient framework for surrogate modeling, uncertainty quantification, and accelerated simulation in physics and engineering applications.

Transformer neural operators have recently become an effective approach for surrogate modeling of systems governed by partial differential equations (PDEs). In this paper, we introduce a modified implicit factorized transformer (IFactFormer-m) model which replaces the original chained factorized attention with parallel factorized attention. The IFactFormer-m model successfully performs long-term predictions for turbulent channel flow, whereas the original IFactFormer (IFactFormer-o), Fourier neural operator (FNO), and implicit Fourier neural operator (IFNO) exhibit a poor performance. Turbulent channel flows are simulated by direct numerical simulation using fine grids at friction Reynolds numbers Re_{tau}approx 180,395,590, and filtered to coarse grids for training neural operator. The neural operator takes the current flow field as input and predicts the flow field at the next time step, and long-term prediction is achieved in the posterior through an autoregressive approach. The results show that IFactFormer-m, compared to other neural operators and the traditional large eddy simulation (LES) methods including dynamic Smagorinsky model (DSM) and the wall-adapted local eddy-viscosity (WALE) model, reduces prediction errors in the short term, and achieves stable and accurate long-term prediction of various statistical properties and flow structures, including the energy spectrum, mean streamwise velocity, root mean square (rms) values of fluctuating velocities, Reynolds shear stress, and spatial structures of instantaneous velocity. Moreover, the trained IFactFormer-m is much faster than traditional LES methods. By analyzing the attention kernels, we elucidate the reasons why IFactFormer-m converges faster and achieves a stable and accurate long-term prediction compared to IFactFormer-o. Code and data are available at: https://github.com/huiyu-2002/IFactFormer-m.

Bayesian optimization (BO) is a powerful approach for optimizing complex and expensive-to-evaluate black-box functions. Its importance is underscored in many applications, notably including hyperparameter tuning, but its efficacy depends on efficiently balancing exploration and exploitation. While there has been substantial progress in BO methods, striking this balance remains a delicate process. In this light, we present LLAMBO, a novel approach that integrates the capabilities of Large Language Models (LLM) within BO. At a high level, we frame the BO problem in natural language, enabling LLMs to iteratively propose and evaluate promising solutions conditioned on historical evaluations. More specifically, we explore how combining contextual understanding, few-shot learning proficiency, and domain knowledge of LLMs can improve model-based BO. Our findings illustrate that LLAMBO is effective at zero-shot warmstarting, and enhances surrogate modeling and candidate sampling, especially in the early stages of search when observations are sparse. Our approach is performed in context and does not require LLM finetuning. Additionally, it is modular by design, allowing individual components to be integrated into existing BO frameworks, or function cohesively as an end-to-end method. We empirically validate LLAMBO's efficacy on the problem of hyperparameter tuning, highlighting strong empirical performance across a range of diverse benchmarks, proprietary, and synthetic tasks.

We introduce PDE-Transformer, an improved transformer-based architecture for surrogate modeling of physics simulations on regular grids. We combine recent architectural improvements of diffusion transformers with adjustments specific for large-scale simulations to yield a more scalable and versatile general-purpose transformer architecture, which can be used as the backbone for building large-scale foundation models in physical sciences. We demonstrate that our proposed architecture outperforms state-of-the-art transformer architectures for computer vision on a large dataset of 16 different types of PDEs. We propose to embed different physical channels individually as spatio-temporal tokens, which interact via channel-wise self-attention. This helps to maintain a consistent information density of tokens when learning multiple types of PDEs simultaneously. We demonstrate that our pre-trained models achieve improved performance on several challenging downstream tasks compared to training from scratch and also beat other foundation model architectures for physics simulations.

Approximating nonlinear differential equations using a neural network provides a robust and efficient tool for various scientific computing tasks, including real-time predictions, inverse problems, optimal controls, and surrogate modeling. Previous works have focused on embedding dynamical systems into networks through two approaches: learning a single solution operator (i.e., the mapping from input parametrized functions to solutions) or learning the governing system of equations (i.e., the constitutive model relative to the state variables). Both of these approaches yield different representations for the same underlying data or function. Additionally, observing that families of differential equations often share key characteristics, we seek one network representation across a wide range of equations. Our method, called Predicting Operators and Symbolic Expressions (PROSE), learns maps from multimodal inputs to multimodal outputs, capable of generating both numerical predictions and mathematical equations. By using a transformer structure and a feature fusion approach, our network can simultaneously embed sets of solution operators for various parametric differential equations using a single trained network. Detailed experiments demonstrate that the network benefits from its multimodal nature, resulting in improved prediction accuracy and better generalization. The network is shown to be able to handle noise in the data and errors in the symbolic representation, including noisy numerical values, model misspecification, and erroneous addition or deletion of terms. PROSE provides a new neural network framework for differential equations which allows for more flexibility and generality in learning operators and governing equations from data.

In recent years, applying deep learning to solve physics problems has attracted much attention. Data-driven deep learning methods produce fast numerical operators that can learn approximate solutions to the whole system of partial differential equations (i.e., surrogate modeling). Although these neural networks may have lower accuracy than traditional numerical methods, they, once trained, are orders of magnitude faster at inference. Hence, one crucial feature is that these operators can generalize to unseen PDE parameters without expensive re-training.In this paper, we construct CFDBench, a benchmark tailored for evaluating the generalization ability of neural operators after training in computational fluid dynamics (CFD) problems. It features four classic CFD problems: lid-driven cavity flow, laminar boundary layer flow in circular tubes, dam flows through the steps, and periodic Karman vortex street. The data contains a total of 302K frames of velocity and pressure fields, involving 739 cases with different operating condition parameters, generated with numerical methods. We evaluate the effectiveness of popular neural operators including feed-forward networks, DeepONet, FNO, U-Net, etc. on CFDBnech by predicting flows with non-periodic boundary conditions, fluid properties, and flow domain shapes that are not seen during training. Appropriate modifications were made to apply popular deep neural networks to CFDBench and enable the accommodation of more changing inputs. Empirical results on CFDBench show many baseline models have errors as high as 300% in some problems, and severe error accumulation when performing autoregressive inference. CFDBench facilitates a more comprehensive comparison between different neural operators for CFD compared to existing benchmarks.

Deep neural networks (DNNs) have been shown to outperform traditional machine learning algorithms in a broad variety of application domains due to their effectiveness in modeling complex problems and handling high-dimensional datasets. Many real-life datasets, however, are of increasingly high dimensionality, where a large number of features may be irrelevant for both supervised and unsupervised learning tasks. The inclusion of such features would not only introduce unwanted noise but also increase computational complexity. Furthermore, due to high non-linearity and dependency among a large number of features, DNN models tend to be unavoidably opaque and perceived as black-box methods because of their not well-understood internal functioning. Their algorithmic complexity is often simply beyond the capacities of humans to understand the interplay among myriads of hyperparameters. A well-interpretable model can identify statistically significant features and explain the way they affect the model's outcome. In this paper, we propose an efficient method to improve the interpretability of black-box models for classification tasks in the case of high-dimensional datasets. First, we train a black-box model on a high-dimensional dataset to learn the embeddings on which the classification is performed. To decompose the inner working principles of the black-box model and to identify top-k important features, we employ different probing and perturbing techniques. We then approximate the behavior of the black-box model by means of an interpretable surrogate model on the top-k feature space. Finally, we derive decision rules and local explanations from the surrogate model to explain individual decisions. Our approach outperforms state-of-the-art methods like TabNet and XGboost when tested on different datasets with varying dimensionality between 50 and 20,000 w.r.t metrics and explainability.

Bayesian optimization is a highly efficient approach to optimizing objective functions which are expensive to query. These objectives are typically represented by Gaussian process (GP) surrogate models which are easy to optimize and support exact inference. While standard GP surrogates have been well-established in Bayesian optimization, Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) have recently become practical function approximators, with many benefits over standard GPs such as the ability to naturally handle non-stationarity and learn representations for high-dimensional data. In this paper, we study BNNs as alternatives to standard GP surrogates for optimization. We consider a variety of approximate inference procedures for finite-width BNNs, including high-quality Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, low-cost stochastic MCMC, and heuristics such as deep ensembles. We also consider infinite-width BNNs and partially stochastic models such as deep kernel learning. We evaluate this collection of surrogate models on diverse problems with varying dimensionality, number of objectives, non-stationarity, and discrete and continuous inputs. We find: (i) the ranking of methods is highly problem dependent, suggesting the need for tailored inductive biases; (ii) HMC is the most successful approximate inference procedure for fully stochastic BNNs; (iii) full stochasticity may be unnecessary as deep kernel learning is relatively competitive; (iv) infinite-width BNNs are particularly promising, especially in high dimensions.

In an industrial group like Safran, numerical simulations of physical phenomena are integral to most design processes. At Safran's corporate research center, we enhance these processes by developing fast and reliable surrogate models for various physics. We focus here on two technologies developed in recent years. The first is a physical reduced-order modeling method for non-linear structural mechanics and thermal analysis, used for calculating the lifespan of high-pressure turbine blades and performing heat analysis of high-pressure compressors. The second technology involves learning physics simulations with non-parameterized geometrical variability using classical machine learning tools, such as Gaussian process regression. Finally, we present our contributions to the open-source and open-data community.

The aim of this study is to develop surrogate models for quick, accurate prediction of thrust forces generated through flapping fin propulsion for given operating conditions and fin geometries. Different network architectures and configurations are explored to model the training data separately for the lead fin and rear fin of a tandem fin setup. We progressively improve the data representation of the input parameter space for model predictions. The models are tested on three unseen fin geometries and the predictions validated with computational fluid dynamics (CFD) data. Finally, the orders of magnitude gains in computational performance of these surrogate models, compared to experimental and CFD runs, vs their tradeoff with accuracy is discussed within the context of this tandem fin configuration.

We propose a new uncertainty estimator for gradient-free optimisation of black-box simulators using deep generative surrogate models. Optimisation of these simulators is especially challenging for stochastic simulators and higher dimensions. To address these issues, we utilise a deep generative surrogate approach to model the black box response for the entire parameter space. We then leverage this knowledge to estimate the proposed uncertainty based on the Wasserstein distance - the Wasserstein uncertainty. This approach is employed in a posterior agnostic gradient-free optimisation algorithm that minimises regret over the entire parameter space. A series of tests were conducted to demonstrate that our method is more robust to the shape of both the black box function and the stochastic response of the black box than state-of-the-art methods, such as efficient global optimisation with a deep Gaussian process surrogate.

In computer-aided engineering design, the goal of a designer is to find an optimal design on a given requirement using the numerical simulator in loop with an optimization method. In this design optimization process, a good design optimization process is one that can reduce the time from inception to design. In this work, we take a class of design problem, that is computationally cheap to evaluate but has high dimensional design space. In such cases, traditional surrogate-based optimization does not offer any benefits. In this work, we propose an alternative way to use ML model to surrogate the design process that formulates the search problem as an inverse problem and can save time by finding the optimal design or at least a good initial seed design for optimization. By using this trained surrogate model with the traditional optimization method, we can get the best of both worlds. We call this as Surrogate Assisted Optimization (SAO)- a hybrid approach by mixing ML surrogate with the traditional optimization method. Empirical evaluations of propeller design problems show that a better efficient design can be found in fewer evaluations using SAO.

Scientific Machine Learning (SciML) is concerned with the development of learned emulators of physical systems governed by partial differential equations (PDE). In application domains such as weather forecasting, molecular dynamics, and inverse design, ML-based surrogate models are increasingly used to augment or replace inefficient and often non-differentiable numerical simulation algorithms. While a number of ML-based methods for approximating the solutions of PDEs have been proposed in recent years, they typically do not adapt to the parameters of the PDEs, making it difficult to generalize to PDE parameters not seen during training. We propose a Channel Attention mechanism guided by PDE Parameter Embeddings (CAPE) component for neural surrogate models and a simple yet effective curriculum learning strategy. The CAPE module can be combined with neural PDE solvers allowing them to adapt to unseen PDE parameters. The curriculum learning strategy provides a seamless transition between teacher-forcing and fully auto-regressive training. We compare CAPE in conjunction with the curriculum learning strategy using a popular PDE benchmark and obtain consistent and significant improvements over the baseline models. The experiments also show several advantages of CAPE, such as its increased ability to generalize to unseen PDE parameters without large increases inference time and parameter count.

Offline optimization has recently emerged as an increasingly popular approach to mitigate the prohibitively expensive cost of online experimentation. The key idea is to learn a surrogate of the black-box function that underlines the target experiment using a static (offline) dataset of its previous input-output queries. Such an approach is, however, fraught with an out-of-distribution issue where the learned surrogate becomes inaccurate outside the offline data regimes. To mitigate this, existing offline optimizers have proposed numerous conditioning techniques to prevent the learned surrogate from being too erratic. Nonetheless, such conditioning strategies are often specific to particular surrogate or search models, which might not generalize to a different model choice. This motivates us to develop a model-agnostic approach instead, which incorporates a notion of model sharpness into the training loss of the surrogate as a regularizer. Our approach is supported by a new theoretical analysis demonstrating that reducing surrogate sharpness on the offline dataset provably reduces its generalized sharpness on unseen data. Our analysis extends existing theories from bounding generalized prediction loss (on unseen data) with loss sharpness to bounding the worst-case generalized surrogate sharpness with its empirical estimate on training data, providing a new perspective on sharpness regularization. Our extensive experimentation on a diverse range of optimization tasks also shows that reducing surrogate sharpness often leads to significant improvement, marking (up to) a noticeable 9.6% performance boost. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/cuong-dm/IGNITE

Machine learning based surrogate models offer researchers powerful tools for accelerating simulation-based workflows. However, as standard datasets in this space often cover small classes of physical behavior, it can be difficult to evaluate the efficacy of new approaches. To address this gap, we introduce the Well: a large-scale collection of datasets containing numerical simulations of a wide variety of spatiotemporal physical systems. The Well draws from domain experts and numerical software developers to provide 15TB of data across 16 datasets covering diverse domains such as biological systems, fluid dynamics, acoustic scattering, as well as magneto-hydrodynamic simulations of extra-galactic fluids or supernova explosions. These datasets can be used individually or as part of a broader benchmark suite. To facilitate usage of the Well, we provide a unified PyTorch interface for training and evaluating models. We demonstrate the function of this library by introducing example baselines that highlight the new challenges posed by the complex dynamics of the Well. The code and data is available at https://github.com/PolymathicAI/the_well.

Recent years have seen a surge in deep learning approaches to accelerate numerical solvers, which provide faithful but computationally intensive simulations of the physical world. These deep surrogates are generally trained in a supervised manner from limited amounts of data slowly generated by the same solver they intend to accelerate. We propose an open-source framework that enables the online training of these models from a large ensemble run of simulations. It leverages multiple levels of parallelism to generate rich datasets. The framework avoids I/O bottlenecks and storage issues by directly streaming the generated data. A training reservoir mitigates the inherent bias of streaming while maximizing GPU throughput. Experiment on training a fully connected network as a surrogate for the heat equation shows the proposed approach enables training on 8TB of data in 2 hours with an accuracy improved by 47% and a batch throughput multiplied by 13 compared to a traditional offline procedure.

Offline optimization is an important task in numerous material engineering domains where online experimentation to collect data is too expensive and needs to be replaced by an in silico maximization of a surrogate of the black-box function. Although such a surrogate can be learned from offline data, its prediction might not be reliable outside the offline data regime, which happens when the surrogate has narrow prediction margin and is (therefore) sensitive to small perturbations of its parameterization. This raises the following questions: (1) how to regulate the sensitivity of a surrogate model; and (2) whether conditioning an offline optimizer with such less sensitive surrogate will lead to better optimization performance. To address these questions, we develop an optimizable sensitivity measurement for the surrogate model, which then inspires a sensitivity-informed regularizer that is applicable to a wide range of offline optimizers. This development is both orthogonal and synergistic to prior research on offline optimization, which is demonstrated in our extensive experiment benchmark.

Advancements in high-computing devices increase the necessity for improved and new understanding and development of smart manufacturing factories. Discrete-event models with simulators have been shown to be critical to architect, designing, building, and operating the manufacturing of semiconductor chips. The diffusion, implantation, and lithography machines have intricate processes due to their feedforward and feedback connectivity. The dataset collected from simulations of the factory models holds the promise of generating valuable machine-learning models. As surrogate data-based models, their executions are highly efficient compared to the physics-based counterpart models. For the development of surrogate models, it is beneficial to have publicly available benchmark simulation models that are grounded in factory models that have concise structures and accurate behaviors. Hence, in this research, a dataset is devised and constructed based on a benchmark model of an Intel semiconductor fabrication factory. The model is formalized using the Parallel Discrete-Event System Specification and executed using the DEVS-Suite simulator. The time series dataset is constructed using discrete-event time trajectories. This dataset is further analyzed and used to develop baseline univariate and multivariate machine learning models. The dataset can also be utilized in the machine learning community for behavioral analysis based on formalized and scalable component-based discrete-event models and simulations.

Machine learning-based surrogate models have emerged as a powerful tool to accelerate simulation-driven scientific workflows. However, their widespread adoption is hindered by the lack of large-scale, diverse, and standardized datasets tailored to physics-based simulations. While existing initiatives provide valuable contributions, many are limited in scope-focusing on specific physics domains, relying on fragmented tooling, or adhering to overly simplistic datamodels that restrict generalization. To address these limitations, we introduce PLAID (Physics-Learning AI Datamodel), a flexible and extensible framework for representing and sharing datasets of physics simulations. PLAID defines a unified standard for describing simulation data and is accompanied by a library for creating, reading, and manipulating complex datasets across a wide range of physical use cases (gitlab.com/drti/plaid). We release six carefully crafted datasets under the PLAID standard, covering structural mechanics and computational fluid dynamics, and provide baseline benchmarks using representative learning methods. Benchmarking tools are made available on Hugging Face, enabling direct participation by the community and contribution to ongoing evaluation efforts (huggingface.co/PLAIDcompetitions).

Many state-of-the-art hyperparameter optimization (HPO) algorithms rely on model-based optimizers that learn surrogate models of the target function to guide the search. Gaussian processes are the de facto surrogate model due to their ability to capture uncertainty but they make strong assumptions about the observation noise, which might not be warranted in practice. In this work, we propose to leverage conformalized quantile regression which makes minimal assumptions about the observation noise and, as a result, models the target function in a more realistic and robust fashion which translates to quicker HPO convergence on empirical benchmarks. To apply our method in a multi-fidelity setting, we propose a simple, yet effective, technique that aggregates observed results across different resource levels and outperforms conventional methods across many empirical tasks.

Gravitational-wave approximants are essential for gravitational-wave astronomy, allowing the coverage binary black hole parameter space for inference or match filtering without costly numerical relativity (NR) simulations, but generally trading some accuracy for computational efficiency. To reduce this trade-off, NR surrogate models can be constructed using interpolation within NR waveform space. We present a 2-stage training approach for neural network-based NR surrogate models. Initially trained on approximant-generated waveforms and then fine-tuned with NR data, these dual-stage artificial neural surrogate (DANSur) models offer rapid and competitively accurate waveform generation, generating millions in under 20ms on a GPU while keeping mean mismatches with NR around 10^{-4}. Implemented in the bilby framework, we show they can be used for parameter estimation tasks.

To plan and optimize energy storage demands that account for Li-ion battery aging dynamics, techniques need to be developed to diagnose battery internal states accurately and rapidly. This study seeks to reduce the computational resources needed to determine a battery's internal states by replacing physics-based Li-ion battery models -- such as the single-particle model (SPM) and the pseudo-2D (P2D) model -- with a physics-informed neural network (PINN) surrogate. The surrogate model makes high-throughput techniques, such as Bayesian calibration, tractable to determine battery internal parameters from voltage responses. This manuscript is the first of a two-part series that introduces PINN surrogates of Li-ion battery models for parameter inference (i.e., state-of-health diagnostics). In this first part, a method is presented for constructing a PINN surrogate of the SPM. A multi-fidelity hierarchical training, where several neural nets are trained with multiple physics-loss fidelities is shown to significantly improve the surrogate accuracy when only training on the governing equation residuals. The implementation is made available in a companion repository (https://github.com/NREL/pinnstripes). The techniques used to develop a PINN surrogate of the SPM are extended in Part II for the PINN surrogate for the P2D battery model, and explore the Bayesian calibration capabilities of both surrogates.

The spatiotemporal resolution of Partial Differential Equations (PDEs) plays important roles in the mathematical description of the world's physical phenomena. In general, scientists and engineers solve PDEs numerically by the use of computationally demanding solvers. Recently, deep learning algorithms have emerged as a viable alternative for obtaining fast solutions for PDEs. Models are usually trained on synthetic data generated by solvers, stored on disk and read back for training. This paper advocates that relying on a traditional static dataset to train these models does not allow the full benefit of the solver to be used as a data generator. It proposes an open source online training framework for deep surrogate models. The framework implements several levels of parallelism focused on simultaneously generating numerical simulations and training deep neural networks. This approach suppresses the I/O and storage bottleneck associated with disk-loaded datasets, and opens the way to training on significantly larger datasets. Experiments compare the offline and online training of four surrogate models, including state-of-the-art architectures. Results indicate that exposing deep surrogate models to more dataset diversity, up to hundreds of GB, can increase model generalization capabilities. Fully connected neural networks, Fourier Neural Operator (FNO), and Message Passing PDE Solver prediction accuracy is improved by 68%, 16% and 7%, respectively.

Bayesian optimization is an approach to optimizing objective functions that take a long time (minutes or hours) to evaluate. It is best-suited for optimization over continuous domains of less than 20 dimensions, and tolerates stochastic noise in function evaluations. It builds a surrogate for the objective and quantifies the uncertainty in that surrogate using a Bayesian machine learning technique, Gaussian process regression, and then uses an acquisition function defined from this surrogate to decide where to sample. In this tutorial, we describe how Bayesian optimization works, including Gaussian process regression and three common acquisition functions: expected improvement, entropy search, and knowledge gradient. We then discuss more advanced techniques, including running multiple function evaluations in parallel, multi-fidelity and multi-information source optimization, expensive-to-evaluate constraints, random environmental conditions, multi-task Bayesian optimization, and the inclusion of derivative information. We conclude with a discussion of Bayesian optimization software and future research directions in the field. Within our tutorial material we provide a generalization of expected improvement to noisy evaluations, beyond the noise-free setting where it is more commonly applied. This generalization is justified by a formal decision-theoretic argument, standing in contrast to previous ad hoc modifications.

The lack of freely available standardized datasets represents an aggravating factor during the development and testing the performance of novel computational techniques in exposure assessment and dosimetry research. This hinders progress as researchers are required to generate numerical data (field, power and temperature distribution) anew using simulation software for each exposure scenario. Other than being time consuming, this approach is highly susceptible to errors that occur during the configuration of the electromagnetic model. To address this issue, in this paper, the limited available data on the incident power density and resultant maximum temperature rise on the skin surface considering various steady-state exposure scenarios at 10-90 GHz have been statistically modeled. The synthetic data have been sampled from the fitted statistical multivariate distribution with respect to predetermined dosimetric constraints. We thus present a comprehensive and open-source dataset compiled of the high-fidelity numerical data considering various exposures to a realistic source. Furthermore, different surrogate models for predicting maximum temperature rise on the skin surface were fitted based on the synthetic dataset. All surrogate models were tested on the originally available data where satisfactory predictive performance has been demonstrated. A simple technique of combining quadratic polynomial and tensor-product spline surrogates, each operating on its own cluster of data, has achieved the lowest mean absolute error of 0.058 {\deg}C. Therefore, overall experimental results indicate the validity of the proposed synthetic dataset.

Neural surrogates for partial differential equations (PDEs) have become popular due to their potential to quickly simulate physics. With a few exceptions, neural surrogates generally treat the forward evolution of time-dependent PDEs as a black box by directly predicting the next state. While this is a natural and easy framework for applying neural surrogates, it can be an over-simplified and rigid framework for predicting physics. In this work, we propose an alternative framework in which neural solvers predict the temporal derivative and an ODE integrator forwards the solution in time, which has little overhead and is broadly applicable across model architectures and PDEs. We find that by simply changing the training target and introducing numerical integration during inference, neural surrogates can gain accuracy and stability. Predicting temporal derivatives also allows models to not be constrained to a specific temporal discretization, allowing for flexible time-stepping during inference or training on higher-resolution PDE data. Lastly, we investigate why this new framework can be beneficial and in what situations does it work well.

We introduced a novel method to solve Bayesian inverse problems governed by PDE equations with a hybrid two-level MCMC where we took advantage of the AI surrogate model speed and the accuracy of numerical models. We show theoretically the potential to solve Bayesian inverse problems accurately with only a small number of numerical samples when the AI surrogate model error is small. Several numerical experiment results are included which demonstrates the advantage of the hybrid method.

This paper studies the black-box optimization task which aims to find the maxima of a black-box function using a static set of its observed input-output pairs. This is often achieved via learning and optimizing a surrogate function with that offline data. Alternatively, it can also be framed as an inverse modeling task that maps a desired performance to potential input candidates that achieve it. Both approaches are constrained by the limited amount of offline data. To mitigate this limitation, we introduce a new perspective that casts offline optimization as a distributional translation task. This is formulated as learning a probabilistic bridge transforming an implicit distribution of low-value inputs (i.e., offline data) into another distribution of high-value inputs (i.e., solution candidates). Such probabilistic bridge can be learned using low- and high-value inputs sampled from synthetic functions that resemble the target function. These synthetic functions are constructed as the mean posterior of multiple Gaussian processes fitted with different parameterizations on the offline data, alleviating the data bottleneck. The proposed approach is evaluated on an extensive benchmark comprising most recent methods, demonstrating significant improvement and establishing a new state-of-the-art performance. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/cuong-dm/ROOT.

Simulations of turbulent flows in 3D are one of the most expensive simulations in computational fluid dynamics (CFD). Many works have been written on surrogate models to replace numerical solvers for fluid flows with faster, learned, autoregressive models. However, the intricacies of turbulence in three dimensions necessitate training these models with very small time steps, while generating realistic flow states requires either long roll-outs with many steps and significant error accumulation or starting from a known, realistic flow state - something we aimed to avoid in the first place. Instead, we propose to approach turbulent flow simulation as a generative task directly learning the manifold of all possible turbulent flow states without relying on any initial flow state. For our experiments, we introduce a challenging 3D turbulence dataset of high-resolution flows and detailed vortex structures caused by various objects and derive two novel sample evaluation metrics for turbulent flows. On this dataset, we show that our generative model captures the distribution of turbulent flows caused by unseen objects and generates high-quality, realistic samples amenable for downstream applications without access to any initial state.

Resided at the intersection of multi-fidelity optimization (MFO) and Bayesian optimization (BO), MF BO has found a niche in solving expensive engineering design optimization problems, thanks to its advantages in incorporating physical and mathematical understandings of the problems, saving resources, addressing exploitation-exploration trade-off, considering uncertainty, and processing parallel computing. The increasing number of works dedicated to MF BO suggests the need for a comprehensive review of this advanced optimization technique. In this paper, we survey recent developments of two essential ingredients of MF BO: Gaussian process (GP) based MF surrogates and acquisition functions. We first categorize the existing MF modeling methods and MFO strategies to locate MF BO in a large family of surrogate-based optimization and MFO algorithms. We then exploit the common properties shared between the methods from each ingredient of MF BO to describe important GP-based MF surrogate models and review various acquisition functions. By doing so, we expect to provide a structured understanding of MF BO. Finally, we attempt to reveal important aspects that require further research for applications of MF BO in solving intricate yet important design optimization problems, including constrained optimization, high-dimensional optimization, optimization under uncertainty, and multi-objective optimization.

Genome-wide association study (GWAS) tests single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) markers across the genome to localize the underlying causal variant of a trait. Because causal variants are seldom observed directly, a surrogate model based on genotyped markers are widely considered. Although many methods estimating the parameters of the surrogate model have been proposed, the connection between the surrogate model and the true causal model is yet investigated. In this work, we establish the connection between the surrogate model and the true causal model. The connection shows that population structure is accounted in GWAS by modelling the variant of interest and not the trait. Such observation explains how environmental confounding can be partially corrected using genetic covariates and why the previously claimed connection between PC correction and linear mixed models is incorrect.

Neural architecture search (NAS) faces a challenge in balancing the exploration of expressive, broad search spaces that enable architectural innovation with the need for efficient evaluation of architectures to effectively search such spaces. We investigate surrogate model training for improving search in highly expressive NAS search spaces based on context-free grammars. We show that i) surrogate models trained either using zero-cost-proxy metrics and neural graph features (GRAF) or by fine-tuning an off-the-shelf LM have high predictive power for the performance of architectures both within and across datasets, ii) these surrogates can be used to filter out bad architectures when searching on novel datasets, thereby significantly speeding up search and achieving better final performances, and iii) the surrogates can be further used directly as the search objective for huge speed-ups.

Multiscale problems are ubiquitous in physics. Numerical simulations of such problems by solving partial differential equations (PDEs) at high resolution are computationally too expensive for many-query scenarios, e.g., uncertainty quantification, remeshing applications, topology optimization, and so forth. This limitation has motivated the application of data-driven surrogate models, where the microscale computations are substituted with a surrogate, usually acting as a black-box mapping between macroscale quantities. These models offer significant speedups but struggle with incorporating microscale physical constraints, such as the balance of linear momentum and constitutive models. In this contribution, we propose Equilibrium Neural Operator (EquiNO) as a complementary physics-informed PDE surrogate for predicting microscale physics and compare it with variational physics-informed neural and operator networks. Our framework, applicable to the so-called multiscale FE^{,2}, computations, introduces the FE-OL approach by integrating the finite element (FE) method with operator learning (OL). We apply the proposed FE-OL approach to quasi-static problems of solid mechanics. The results demonstrate that FE-OL can yield accurate solutions even when confronted with a restricted dataset during model development. Our results show that EquiNO achieves speedup factors exceeding 8000-fold compared to traditional methods and offers an optimal balance between data-driven and physics-based strategies.

With the increasing computational costs associated with deep learning, automated hyperparameter optimization methods, strongly relying on black-box Bayesian optimization (BO), face limitations. Freeze-thaw BO offers a promising grey-box alternative, strategically allocating scarce resources incrementally to different configurations. However, the frequent surrogate model updates inherent to this approach pose challenges for existing methods, requiring retraining or fine-tuning their neural network surrogates online, introducing overhead, instability, and hyper-hyperparameters. In this work, we propose FT-PFN, a novel surrogate for Freeze-thaw style BO. FT-PFN is a prior-data fitted network (PFN) that leverages the transformers' in-context learning ability to efficiently and reliably do Bayesian learning curve extrapolation in a single forward pass. Our empirical analysis across three benchmark suites shows that the predictions made by FT-PFN are more accurate and 10-100 times faster than those of the deep Gaussian process and deep ensemble surrogates used in previous work. Furthermore, we show that, when combined with our novel acquisition mechanism (MFPI-random), the resulting in-context freeze-thaw BO method (ifBO), yields new state-of-the-art performance in the same three families of deep learning HPO benchmarks considered in prior work.

How areas of land are allocated for different uses, such as forests, urban areas, and agriculture, has a large effect on the terrestrial carbon balance, and therefore climate change. Based on available historical data on land-use changes and a simulation of the associated carbon emissions and removals, a surrogate model can be learned that makes it possible to evaluate the different options available to decision-makers efficiently. An evolutionary search process can then be used to discover effective land-use policies for specific locations. Such a system was built on the Project Resilience platform and evaluated with the Land-Use Harmonization dataset LUH2 and the bookkeeping model BLUE. It generates Pareto fronts that trade off carbon impact and amount of land-use change customized to different locations, thus providing a proof-of-concept tool that is potentially useful for land-use planning.

Given a sample of size N, it is often useful to select a subsample of smaller size n<N to be used for statistical estimation or learning. Such a data selection step is useful to reduce the requirements of data labeling and the computational complexity of learning. We assume to be given N unlabeled samples {{boldsymbol x}_i}_{ile N}, and to be given access to a `surrogate model' that can predict labels y_i better than random guessing. Our goal is to select a subset of the samples, to be denoted by {{boldsymbol x}_i}_{iin G}, of size |G|=n<N. We then acquire labels for this set and we use them to train a model via regularized empirical risk minimization. By using a mixture of numerical experiments on real and synthetic data, and mathematical derivations under low- and high- dimensional asymptotics, we show that: (i)~Data selection can be very effective, in particular beating training on the full sample in some cases; (ii)~Certain popular choices in data selection methods (e.g. unbiased reweighted subsampling, or influence function-based subsampling) can be substantially suboptimal.

We propose constrained causal Bayesian optimization (cCBO), an approach for finding interventions in a known causal graph that optimize a target variable under some constraints. cCBO first reduces the search space by exploiting the graph structure and, if available, an observational dataset; and then solves the restricted optimization problem by modelling target and constraint quantities using Gaussian processes and by sequentially selecting interventions via a constrained expected improvement acquisition function. We propose different surrogate models that enable to integrate observational and interventional data while capturing correlation among effects with increasing levels of sophistication. We evaluate cCBO on artificial and real-world causal graphs showing successful trade off between fast convergence and percentage of feasible interventions.

An established way to improve the transferability of black-box evasion attacks is to craft the adversarial examples on an ensemble-based surrogate to increase diversity. We argue that transferability is fundamentally related to uncertainty. Based on a state-of-the-art Bayesian Deep Learning technique, we propose a new method to efficiently build a surrogate by sampling approximately from the posterior distribution of neural network weights, which represents the belief about the value of each parameter. Our extensive experiments on ImageNet, CIFAR-10 and MNIST show that our approach improves the success rates of four state-of-the-art attacks significantly (up to 83.2 percentage points), in both intra-architecture and inter-architecture transferability. On ImageNet, our approach can reach 94% of success rate while reducing training computations from 11.6 to 2.4 exaflops, compared to an ensemble of independently trained DNNs. Our vanilla surrogate achieves 87.5% of the time higher transferability than three test-time techniques designed for this purpose. Our work demonstrates that the way to train a surrogate has been overlooked, although it is an important element of transfer-based attacks. We are, therefore, the first to review the effectiveness of several training methods in increasing transferability. We provide new directions to better understand the transferability phenomenon and offer a simple but strong baseline for future work.

Bayesian optimisation (BO) uses probabilistic surrogate models - usually Gaussian processes (GPs) - for the optimisation of expensive black-box functions. At each BO iteration, the GP hyperparameters are fit to previously-evaluated data by maximising the marginal likelihood. However, this fails to account for uncertainty in the hyperparameters themselves, leading to overconfident model predictions. This uncertainty can be accounted for by taking the Bayesian approach of marginalising out the model hyperparameters. We investigate whether a fully-Bayesian treatment of the Gaussian process hyperparameters in BO (FBBO) leads to improved optimisation performance. Since an analytic approach is intractable, we compare FBBO using three approximate inference schemes to the maximum likelihood approach, using the Expected Improvement (EI) and Upper Confidence Bound (UCB) acquisition functions paired with ARD and isotropic Matern kernels, across 15 well-known benchmark problems for 4 observational noise settings. FBBO using EI with an ARD kernel leads to the best performance in the noise-free setting, with much less difference between combinations of BO components when the noise is increased. FBBO leads to over-exploration with UCB, but is not detrimental with EI. Therefore, we recommend that FBBO using EI with an ARD kernel as the default choice for BO.

Current neural architecture search (NAS) strategies focus only on finding a single, good, architecture. They offer little insight into why a specific network is performing well, or how we should modify the architecture if we want further improvements. We propose a Bayesian optimisation (BO) approach for NAS that combines the Weisfeiler-Lehman graph kernel with a Gaussian process surrogate. Our method optimises the architecture in a highly data-efficient manner: it is capable of capturing the topological structures of the architectures and is scalable to large graphs, thus making the high-dimensional and graph-like search spaces amenable to BO. More importantly, our method affords interpretability by discovering useful network features and their corresponding impact on the network performance. Indeed, we demonstrate empirically that our surrogate model is capable of identifying useful motifs which can guide the generation of new architectures. We finally show that our method outperforms existing NAS approaches to achieve the state of the art on both closed- and open-domain search spaces.

Bayesian parameter inference is useful to improve Li-ion battery diagnostics and can help formulate battery aging models. However, it is computationally intensive and cannot be easily repeated for multiple cycles, multiple operating conditions, or multiple replicate cells. To reduce the computational cost of Bayesian calibration, numerical solvers for physics-based models can be replaced with faster surrogates. A physics-informed neural network (PINN) is developed as a surrogate for the pseudo-2D (P2D) battery model calibration. For the P2D surrogate, additional training regularization was needed as compared to the PINN single-particle model (SPM) developed in Part I. Both the PINN SPM and P2D surrogate models are exercised for parameter inference and compared to data obtained from a direct numerical solution of the governing equations. A parameter inference study highlights the ability to use these PINNs to calibrate scaling parameters for the cathode Li diffusion and the anode exchange current density. By realizing computational speed-ups of 2250x for the P2D model, as compared to using standard integrating methods, the PINN surrogates enable rapid state-of-health diagnostics. In the low-data availability scenario, the testing error was estimated to 2mV for the SPM surrogate and 10mV for the P2D surrogate which could be mitigated with additional data.

In computational social science (CSS), researchers analyze documents to explain social and political phenomena. In most scenarios, CSS researchers first obtain labels for documents and then explain labels using interpretable regression analyses in the second step. One increasingly common way to annotate documents cheaply at scale is through large language models (LLMs). However, like other scalable ways of producing annotations, such surrogate labels are often imperfect and biased. We present a new algorithm for using imperfect annotation surrogates for downstream statistical analyses while guaranteeing statistical properties -- like asymptotic unbiasedness and proper uncertainty quantification -- which are fundamental to CSS research. We show that direct use of surrogate labels in downstream statistical analyses leads to substantial bias and invalid confidence intervals, even with high surrogate accuracy of 80-90%. To address this, we build on debiased machine learning to propose the design-based supervised learning (DSL) estimator. DSL employs a doubly-robust procedure to combine surrogate labels with a smaller number of high-quality, gold-standard labels. Our approach guarantees valid inference for downstream statistical analyses, even when surrogates are arbitrarily biased and without requiring stringent assumptions, by controlling the probability of sampling documents for gold-standard labeling. Both our theoretical analysis and experimental results show that DSL provides valid statistical inference while achieving root mean squared errors comparable to existing alternatives that focus only on prediction without inferential guarantees.

Neural networks excel as function approximators, but their complexity often obscures the types of functions they learn, making it difficult to explain their behavior. To address this, the linearity score lambda(f) is introduced, a simple and interpretable diagnostic that quantifies how well a regression network's output can be mimicked by a linear model. Defined as the R^2 value between the network's predictions and those of a trained linear surrogate, lambda(f) measures linear decodability: the extent to which the network's behavior aligns with a structurally simple model. This framework is evaluated on both synthetic and real-world datasets, using dataset-specific networks and surrogates. High lambda(f) scores reliably indicate alignment with the network's outputs; however, they do not guarantee accuracy with respect to the ground truth. These results highlight the risk of using surrogate fidelity as a proxy for model understanding, especially in high-stakes regression tasks.

Expensive multi-objective optimization problems (EMOPs) are common in real-world scenarios where evaluating objective functions is costly and involves extensive computations or physical experiments. Current Pareto set learning methods for such problems often rely on surrogate models like Gaussian processes to approximate the objective functions. These surrogate models can become fragmented, resulting in numerous small uncertain regions between explored solutions. When using acquisition functions such as the Lower Confidence Bound (LCB), these uncertain regions can turn into pseudo-local optima, complicating the search for globally optimal solutions. To address these challenges, we propose a novel approach called SVH-PSL, which integrates Stein Variational Gradient Descent (SVGD) with Hypernetworks for efficient Pareto set learning. Our method addresses the issues of fragmented surrogate models and pseudo-local optima by collectively moving particles in a manner that smooths out the solution space. The particles interact with each other through a kernel function, which helps maintain diversity and encourages the exploration of underexplored regions. This kernel-based interaction prevents particles from clustering around pseudo-local optima and promotes convergence towards globally optimal solutions. Our approach aims to establish robust relationships between trade-off reference vectors and their corresponding true Pareto solutions, overcoming the limitations of existing methods. Through extensive experiments across both synthetic and real-world MOO benchmarks, we demonstrate that SVH-PSL significantly improves the quality of the learned Pareto set, offering a promising solution for expensive multi-objective optimization problems.

We consider minimizing functions for which it is expensive to compute the (possibly stochastic) gradient. Such functions are prevalent in reinforcement learning, imitation learning and adversarial training. Our target optimization framework uses the (expensive) gradient computation to construct surrogate functions in a target space (e.g. the logits output by a linear model for classification) that can be minimized efficiently. This allows for multiple parameter updates to the model, amortizing the cost of gradient computation. In the full-batch setting, we prove that our surrogate is a global upper-bound on the loss, and can be (locally) minimized using a black-box optimization algorithm. We prove that the resulting majorization-minimization algorithm ensures convergence to a stationary point of the loss. Next, we instantiate our framework in the stochastic setting and propose the SSO algorithm, which can be viewed as projected stochastic gradient descent in the target space. This connection enables us to prove theoretical guarantees for SSO when minimizing convex functions. Our framework allows the use of standard stochastic optimization algorithms to construct surrogates which can be minimized by any deterministic optimization method. To evaluate our framework, we consider a suite of supervised learning and imitation learning problems. Our experiments indicate the benefits of target optimization and the effectiveness of SSO.

The assessment of safety performance plays a pivotal role in the development and deployment of connected and automated vehicles (CAVs). A common approach involves designing testing scenarios based on prior knowledge of CAVs (e.g., surrogate models), conducting tests in these scenarios, and subsequently evaluating CAVs' safety performances. However, substantial differences between CAVs and the prior knowledge can significantly diminish the evaluation efficiency. In response to this issue, existing studies predominantly concentrate on the adaptive design of testing scenarios during the CAV testing process. Yet, these methods have limitations in their applicability to high-dimensional scenarios. To overcome this challenge, we develop an adaptive testing environment that bolsters evaluation robustness by incorporating multiple surrogate models and optimizing the combination coefficients of these surrogate models to enhance evaluation efficiency. We formulate the optimization problem as a regression task utilizing quadratic programming. To efficiently obtain the regression target via reinforcement learning, we propose the dense reinforcement learning method and devise a new adaptive policy with high sample efficiency. Essentially, our approach centers on learning the values of critical scenes displaying substantial surrogate-to-real gaps. The effectiveness of our method is validated in high-dimensional overtaking scenarios, demonstrating that our approach achieves notable evaluation efficiency.

This paper presents a methodology to learn surrogate models of steady state fluid dynamics simulations on meshed domains, based on Implicit Neural Representations (INRs). The proposed models can be applied directly to unstructured domains for different flow conditions, handle non-parametric 3D geometric variations, and generalize to unseen shapes at test time. The coordinate-based formulation naturally leads to robustness with respect to discretization, allowing an excellent trade-off between computational cost (memory footprint and training time) and accuracy. The method is demonstrated on two industrially relevant applications: a RANS dataset of the two-dimensional compressible flow over a transonic airfoil and a dataset of the surface pressure distribution over 3D wings, including shape, inflow condition, and control surface deflection variations. On the considered test cases, our approach achieves a more than three times lower test error and significantly improves generalization error on unseen geometries compared to state-of-the-art Graph Neural Network architectures. Remarkably, the method can perform inference five order of magnitude faster than the high fidelity solver on the RANS transonic airfoil dataset. Code is available at https://gitlab.isae-supaero.fr/gi.catalani/aero-nepf

Clinical trials or studies oftentimes require long-term and/or costly follow-up of participants to evaluate a novel treatment/drug/vaccine. There has been increasing interest in the past few decades in using short-term surrogate outcomes as a replacement of the primary outcome i.e., in using the surrogate outcome, which can potentially be observed sooner, to make inference about the treatment effect on the long-term primary outcome. Very few of the available statistical methods to evaluate a surrogate are applicable to settings where both the surrogate and the primary outcome are time-to-event outcomes subject to censoring. Methods that can handle this setting tend to require parametric assumptions or be limited to assessing only the restricted mean survival time. In this paper, we propose a non-parametric approach to evaluate a censored surrogate outcome, such as time to progression, when the primary outcome is also a censored time-to-event outcome, such as time to death, and the treatment effect of interest is the difference in overall survival. Specifically, we define the proportion of the treatment effect on the primary outcome that is explained (PTE) by the censored surrogate outcome in this context, and estimate this proportion by defining and deriving an optimal transformation of the surrogate information. Our approach provides the added advantage of relaxed assumptions to guarantee that the true PTE is within (0,1), along with being model-free. Finite sample performance of our estimators are illustrated via extensive simulation studies and a real data application examining progression-free survival as a surrogate for overall survival for patients with metastatic colorectal cancer.

Neural surrogates and operator networks for solving partial differential equation (PDE) problems have attracted significant research interest in recent years. However, most existing approaches are limited in their ability to generalize solutions across varying non-parametric geometric domains. In this work, we address this challenge in the context of Polyethylene Terephthalate (PET) bottle buckling analysis, a representative packaging design problem conventionally solved using computationally expensive finite element analysis (FEA). We introduce a hybrid DeepONet-Transolver framework that simultaneously predicts nodal displacement fields and the time evolution of reaction forces during top load compression. Our methodology is evaluated on two families of bottle geometries parameterized by two and four design variables. Training data is generated using nonlinear FEA simulations in Abaqus for 254 unique designs per family. The proposed framework achieves mean relative L^{2} errors of 2.5-13% for displacement fields and approximately 2.4% for time-dependent reaction forces for the four-parameter bottle family. Point-wise error analyses further show absolute displacement errors on the order of 10^{-4}-10^{-3}, with the largest discrepancies confined to localized geometric regions. Importantly, the model accurately captures key physical phenomena, such as buckling behavior, across diverse bottle geometries. These results highlight the potential of our framework as a scalable and computationally efficient surrogate, particularly for multi-task predictions in computational mechanics and applications requiring rapid design evaluation.

Among adversarial attacks against sequential recommender systems, model extraction attacks represent a method to attack sequential recommendation models without prior knowledge. Existing research has primarily concentrated on the adversary's execution of black-box attacks through data-free model extraction. However, a significant gap remains in the literature concerning the development of surrogate models by adversaries with access to few-shot raw data (10\% even less). That is, the challenge of how to construct a surrogate model with high functional similarity within the context of few-shot data scenarios remains an issue that requires resolution.This study addresses this gap by introducing a novel few-shot model extraction framework against sequential recommenders, which is designed to construct a superior surrogate model with the utilization of few-shot data. The proposed few-shot model extraction framework is comprised of two components: an autoregressive augmentation generation strategy and a bidirectional repair loss-facilitated model distillation procedure. Specifically, to generate synthetic data that closely approximate the distribution of raw data, autoregressive augmentation generation strategy integrates a probabilistic interaction sampler to extract inherent dependencies and a synthesis determinant signal module to characterize user behavioral patterns. Subsequently, bidirectional repair loss, which target the discrepancies between the recommendation lists, is designed as auxiliary loss to rectify erroneous predictions from surrogate models, transferring knowledge from the victim model to the surrogate model effectively. Experiments on three datasets show that the proposed few-shot model extraction framework yields superior surrogate models.

Time-dependent partial differential equations (PDEs) are ubiquitous in science and engineering. Recently, mostly due to the high computational cost of traditional solution techniques, deep neural network based surrogates have gained increased interest. The practical utility of such neural PDE solvers relies on their ability to provide accurate, stable predictions over long time horizons, which is a notoriously hard problem. In this work, we present a large-scale analysis of common temporal rollout strategies, identifying the neglect of non-dominant spatial frequency information, often associated with high frequencies in PDE solutions, as the primary pitfall limiting stable, accurate rollout performance. Based on these insights, we draw inspiration from recent advances in diffusion models to introduce PDE-Refiner; a novel model class that enables more accurate modeling of all frequency components via a multistep refinement process. We validate PDE-Refiner on challenging benchmarks of complex fluid dynamics, demonstrating stable and accurate rollouts that consistently outperform state-of-the-art models, including neural, numerical, and hybrid neural-numerical architectures. We further demonstrate that PDE-Refiner greatly enhances data efficiency, since the denoising objective implicitly induces a novel form of spectral data augmentation. Finally, PDE-Refiner's connection to diffusion models enables an accurate and efficient assessment of the model's predictive uncertainty, allowing us to estimate when the surrogate becomes inaccurate.

We propose transferability from Large Geometric Vicinity (LGV), a new technique to increase the transferability of black-box adversarial attacks. LGV starts from a pretrained surrogate model and collects multiple weight sets from a few additional training epochs with a constant and high learning rate. LGV exploits two geometric properties that we relate to transferability. First, models that belong to a wider weight optimum are better surrogates. Second, we identify a subspace able to generate an effective surrogate ensemble among this wider optimum. Through extensive experiments, we show that LGV alone outperforms all (combinations of) four established test-time transformations by 1.8 to 59.9 percentage points. Our findings shed new light on the importance of the geometry of the weight space to explain the transferability of adversarial examples.

The task of locating first order saddle points on high-dimensional surfaces describing the variation of energy as a function of atomic coordinates is an essential step for identifying the mechanism and estimating the rate of thermally activated events within the harmonic approximation of transition state theory. When combined directly with electronic structure calculations, the number of energy and atomic force evaluations needed for convergence is a primary issue. Here, we describe an efficient implementation of Gaussian process regression (GPR) acceleration of the minimum mode following method where a dimer is used to estimate the lowest eigenmode of the Hessian. A surrogate energy surface is constructed and updated after each electronic structure calculation. The method is applied to a test set of 500 molecular reactions previously generated by Hermez and coworkers [J. Chem. Theory Comput. 18, 6974 (2022)]. An order of magnitude reduction in the number of electronic structure calculations needed to reach the saddle point configurations is obtained by using the GPR compared to the dimer method. Despite the wide range in stiffness of the molecular degrees of freedom, the calculations are carried out using Cartesian coordinates and are found to require similar number of electronic structure calculations as an elaborate internal coordinate method implemented in the Sella software package. The present implementation of the GPR surrogate model in C++ is efficient enough for the wall time of the saddle point searches to be reduced in 3 out of 4 cases even though the calculations are carried out at a low Hartree-Fock level.

Bayesian optimisation is a popular approach for optimising expensive black-box functions. The next location to be evaluated is selected via maximising an acquisition function that balances exploitation and exploration. Gaussian processes, the surrogate models of choice in Bayesian optimisation, are often used with a constant prior mean function equal to the arithmetic mean of the observed function values. We show that the rate of convergence can depend sensitively on the choice of mean function. We empirically investigate 8 mean functions (constant functions equal to the arithmetic mean, minimum, median and maximum of the observed function evaluations, linear, quadratic polynomials, random forests and RBF networks), using 10 synthetic test problems and two real-world problems, and using the Expected Improvement and Upper Confidence Bound acquisition functions. We find that for design dimensions ge5 using a constant mean function equal to the worst observed quality value is consistently the best choice on the synthetic problems considered. We argue that this worst-observed-quality function promotes exploitation leading to more rapid convergence. However, for the real-world tasks the more complex mean functions capable of modelling the fitness landscape may be effective, although there is no clearly optimum choice.

We address the challenge of sound propagation simulations in 3D virtual rooms with moving sources, which have applications in virtual/augmented reality, game audio, and spatial computing. Solutions to the wave equation can describe wave phenomena such as diffraction and interference. However, simulating them using conventional numerical discretization methods with hundreds of source and receiver positions is intractable, making stimulating a sound field with moving sources impractical. To overcome this limitation, we propose using deep operator networks to approximate linear wave-equation operators. This enables the rapid prediction of sound propagation in realistic 3D acoustic scenes with moving sources, achieving millisecond-scale computations. By learning a compact surrogate model, we avoid the offline calculation and storage of impulse responses for all relevant source/listener pairs. Our experiments, including various complex scene geometries, show good agreement with reference solutions, with root mean squared errors ranging from 0.02 Pa to 0.10 Pa. Notably, our method signifies a paradigm shift as no prior machine learning approach has achieved precise predictions of complete wave fields within realistic domains. We anticipate that our findings will drive further exploration of deep neural operator methods, advancing research in immersive user experiences within virtual environments.

Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) Large Language Models (LLMs) suffer from severely sub-optimal expert pathways-our study reveals that naive expert selection learned from pretraining leaves a surprising 10-20% accuracy gap for improvement. Motivated by this observation, we develop a novel class of test-time optimization methods to re-weight or "re-mixing" the experts in different layers jointly for each test sample. Since the test sample's ground truth is unknown, we propose to optimize a surrogate objective defined by the sample's "successful neighbors" from a reference set of samples. We introduce three surrogates and algorithms based on mode-finding, kernel regression, and the average loss of similar reference samples/tasks. To reduce the cost of optimizing whole pathways, we apply our algorithms merely to the core experts' mixing weights in critical layers, which enjoy similar performance but save significant computation. This leads to "Critical-Layer, Core-Expert, Collaborative Pathway Optimization (C3PO)". We apply C3PO to two recent MoE LLMs and examine it on six widely-used benchmarks. It consistently improves the base model by 7-15% in accuracy and outperforms widely used test-time learning baselines, e.g., in-context learning and prompt/prefix tuning, by a large margin. Moreover, C3PO enables MoE LLMs with 1-3B active parameters to outperform LLMs of 7-9B parameters, hence improving MoE's advantages on efficiency. Our thorough ablation study further sheds novel insights on achieving test-time improvement on MoE.

Batch Bayesian optimisation (BO) is a successful technique for the optimisation of expensive black-box functions. Asynchronous BO can reduce wallclock time by starting a new evaluation as soon as another finishes, thus maximising resource utilisation. To maximise resource allocation, we develop a novel asynchronous BO method, AEGiS (Asynchronous epsilon-Greedy Global Search) that combines greedy search, exploiting the surrogate's mean prediction, with Thompson sampling and random selection from the approximate Pareto set describing the trade-off between exploitation (surrogate mean prediction) and exploration (surrogate posterior variance). We demonstrate empirically the efficacy of AEGiS on synthetic benchmark problems, meta-surrogate hyperparameter tuning problems and real-world problems, showing that AEGiS generally outperforms existing methods for asynchronous BO. When a single worker is available performance is no worse than BO using expected improvement.

In a model inversion (MI) attack, an adversary abuses access to a machine learning (ML) model to infer and reconstruct private training data. Remarkable progress has been made in the white-box and black-box setups, where the adversary has access to the complete model or the model's soft output respectively. However, there is very limited study in the most challenging but practically important setup: Label-only MI attacks, where the adversary only has access to the model's predicted label (hard label) without confidence scores nor any other model information. In this work, we propose LOKT, a novel approach for label-only MI attacks. Our idea is based on transfer of knowledge from the opaque target model to surrogate models. Subsequently, using these surrogate models, our approach can harness advanced white-box attacks. We propose knowledge transfer based on generative modelling, and introduce a new model, Target model-assisted ACGAN (T-ACGAN), for effective knowledge transfer. Our method casts the challenging label-only MI into the more tractable white-box setup. We provide analysis to support that surrogate models based on our approach serve as effective proxies for the target model for MI. Our experiments show that our method significantly outperforms existing SOTA Label-only MI attack by more than 15% across all MI benchmarks. Furthermore, our method compares favorably in terms of query budget. Our study highlights rising privacy threats for ML models even when minimal information (i.e., hard labels) is exposed. Our study highlights rising privacy threats for ML models even when minimal information (i.e., hard labels) is exposed. Our code, demo, models and reconstructed data are available at our project page: https://ngoc-nguyen-0.github.io/lokt/

We apply augmentations to our dataset to enhance the quality of our predictions and make our final models more resilient to noisy data and domain drifts. Yet the question remains, how are these augmentations going to perform with different hyper-parameters? In this study we evaluate the sensitivity of augmentations with regards to the model's hyper parameters along with their consistency and influence by performing a Local Surrogate (LIME) interpretation on the impact of hyper-parameters when different augmentations are applied to a machine learning model. We have utilized Linear regression coefficients for weighing each augmentation. Our research has proved that there are some augmentations which are highly sensitive to hyper-parameters and others which are more resilient and reliable.

Model merging has emerged as an effective approach to combine multiple single-task models into a multitask model. This process typically involves computing a weighted average of the model parameters without any additional training. Existing model-merging methods focus on enhancing average task accuracy. However, interference and conflicts between the objectives of different tasks can lead to trade-offs during the merging process. In real-world applications, a set of solutions with various trade-offs can be more informative, helping practitioners make decisions based on diverse preferences. In this paper, we introduce a novel and low-compute algorithm, Model Merging with Amortized Pareto Front (MAP). MAP efficiently identifies a Pareto set of scaling coefficients for merging multiple models, reflecting the trade-offs involved. It amortizes the substantial computational cost of evaluations needed to estimate the Pareto front by using quadratic approximation surrogate models derived from a pre-selected set of scaling coefficients. Experimental results on vision and natural language processing tasks demonstrate that MAP can accurately identify the Pareto front, providing practitioners with flexible solutions to balance competing task objectives. We also introduce Bayesian MAP for scenarios with a relatively low number of tasks and Nested MAP for situations with a high number of tasks, further reducing the computational cost of evaluation.

Solving the inverse problem is the key step in evaluating the capacity of a physical model to describe real phenomena. In medical image computing, it aligns with the classical theme of image-based model personalization. Traditionally, a solution to the problem is obtained by performing either sampling or variational inference based methods. Both approaches aim to identify a set of free physical model parameters that results in a simulation best matching an empirical observation. When applied to brain tumor modeling, one of the instances of image-based model personalization in medical image computing, the overarching drawback of the methods is the time complexity for finding such a set. In a clinical setting with limited time between imaging and diagnosis or even intervention, this time complexity may prove critical. As the history of quantitative science is the history of compression, we align in this paper with the historical tendency and propose a method compressing complex traditional strategies for solving an inverse problem into a simple database query task. We evaluated different ways of performing the database query task assessing the trade-off between accuracy and execution time. On the exemplary task of brain tumor growth modeling, we prove that the proposed method achieves one order speed-up compared to existing approaches for solving the inverse problem. The resulting compute time offers critical means for relying on more complex and, hence, realistic models, for integrating image preprocessing and inverse modeling even deeper, or for implementing the current model into a clinical workflow.

Policy-based reinforcement learning algorithms are widely used in various fields. Among them, mainstream policy optimization algorithms such as TRPO and PPO introduce importance sampling into policy iteration, which allows the reuse of historical data. However, this can also lead to a high variance of the surrogate objective and indirectly affects the stability and convergence of the algorithm. In this paper, we first derived an upper bound of the surrogate objective variance, which can grow quadratically with the increase of the surrogate objective. Next, we proposed the dropout technique to avoid the excessive increase of the surrogate objective variance caused by importance sampling. Then, we introduced a general reinforcement learning framework applicable to mainstream policy optimization methods, and applied the dropout technique to the PPO algorithm to obtain the D-PPO variant. Finally, we conduct comparative experiments between D-PPO and PPO algorithms in the Atari 2600 environment, and the results show that D-PPO achieved significant performance improvements compared to PPO, and effectively limited the excessive increase of the surrogate objective variance during training.

Surgical simulation offers a promising addition to conventional surgical training. However, available simulation tools lack photorealism and rely on hardcoded behaviour. Denoising Diffusion Models are a promising alternative for high-fidelity image synthesis, but existing state-of-the-art conditioning methods fall short in providing precise control or interactivity over the generated scenes. We introduce SurGrID, a Scene Graph to Image Diffusion Model, allowing for controllable surgical scene synthesis by leveraging Scene Graphs. These graphs encode a surgical scene's components' spatial and semantic information, which are then translated into an intermediate representation using our novel pre-training step that explicitly captures local and global information. Our proposed method improves the fidelity of generated images and their coherence with the graph input over the state-of-the-art. Further, we demonstrate the simulation's realism and controllability in a user assessment study involving clinical experts. Scene Graphs can be effectively used for precise and interactive conditioning of Denoising Diffusion Models for simulating surgical scenes, enabling high fidelity and interactive control over the generated content.

In Federated Learning (FL) and many other distributed training frameworks, collaborators can hold their private data locally and only share the network weights trained with the local data after multiple iterations. Gradient inversion is a family of privacy attacks that recovers data from its generated gradients. Seemingly, FL can provide a degree of protection against gradient inversion attacks on weight updates, since the gradient of a single step is concealed by the accumulation of gradients over multiple local iterations. In this work, we propose a principled way to extend gradient inversion attacks to weight updates in FL, thereby better exposing weaknesses in the presumed privacy protection inherent in FL. In particular, we propose a surrogate model method based on the characteristic of two-dimensional gradient flow and low-rank property of local updates. Our method largely boosts the ability of gradient inversion attacks on weight updates containing many iterations and achieves state-of-the-art (SOTA) performance. Additionally, our method runs up to 100times faster than the SOTA baseline in the common FL scenario. Our work re-evaluates and highlights the privacy risk of sharing network weights. Our code is available at https://github.com/JunyiZhu-AI/surrogate_model_extension.

The inspiral, merger, and ringdown of Massive Black Hole Binaries (MBHBs) is one the main sources of Gravitational Waves (GWs) for the future Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA), an ESA-led mission in the implementation phase. It is expected that LISA will detect these systems throughout the entire observable universe. Robust and efficient data analysis algorithms are necessary to detect and estimate physical parameters for these systems. In this work, we explore the application of Sequential Neural Likelihood, a simulation-based inference algorithm, to detect and characterize MBHB GW signals in synthetic LISA data. We describe in detail the different elements of the method, their performance and possible alternatives that can be used to enhance the performance. Instead of sampling from the conventional likelihood function, which requires a forward simulation for each evaluation, this method constructs a surrogate likelihood that is ultimately described by a neural network trained from a dataset of simulations of the MBHB signals and noise. One important advantage of this method is that, given that the likelihood is independent of the priors, we can iteratively train models that target specific observations in a fraction of the time and computational cost that other traditional and machine learning-based strategies would require. Because of the iterative nature of the method, we are able to train models to obtain qualitatively similar posteriors with less than 2\% of the simulator calls that Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods would require. We compare these posteriors with those obtained from Markov Chain Monte Carlo techniques and discuss the differences that appear, in particular in relation with the important role that data compression has in the modular implementation of the method that we present. We also discuss different strategies to improve the performance of the algorithms.

We study the problem of classification with a reject option for a fixed predictor, applicable in natural language processing. We introduce a new problem formulation for this scenario, and an algorithm minimizing a new surrogate loss function. We provide a complete theoretical analysis of the surrogate loss function with a strong H-consistency guarantee. For evaluation, we choose the decontextualization task, and provide a manually-labelled dataset of 2mathord,000 examples. Our algorithm significantly outperforms the baselines considered, with a sim!!25% improvement in coverage when halving the error rate, which is only sim!! 3 % away from the theoretical limit.

When training deep learning models, the performance depends largely on the selected hyperparameters. However, hyperparameter optimization (HPO) is often one of the most expensive parts of model design. Classical HPO methods treat this as a black-box optimization problem. However, gray-box HPO methods, which incorporate more information about the setup, have emerged as a promising direction for more efficient optimization. For example, using intermediate loss evaluations to terminate bad selections. In this work, we propose an HPO method for neural networks using logged checkpoints of the trained weights to guide future hyperparameter selections. Our method, Forecasting Model Search (FMS), embeds weights into a Gaussian process deep kernel surrogate model, using a permutation-invariant graph metanetwork to be data-efficient with the logged network weights. To facilitate reproducibility and further research, we open-source our code at https://github.com/NVlabs/forecasting-model-search.

Alignment in large language models (LLMs) is used to enforce guidelines such as safety. Yet, alignment fails in the face of jailbreak attacks that modify inputs to induce unsafe outputs. In this paper, we present and evaluate a method to assess the robustness of LLM alignment. We observe that alignment embeds a safety classifier in the target model that is responsible for deciding between refusal and compliance. We seek to extract an approximation of this classifier, called a surrogate classifier, from the LLM. We develop an algorithm for identifying candidate classifiers from subsets of the LLM model. We evaluate the degree to which the candidate classifiers approximate the model's embedded classifier in benign (F1 score) and adversarial (using surrogates in a white-box attack) settings. Our evaluation shows that the best candidates achieve accurate agreement (an F1 score above 80%) using as little as 20% of the model architecture. Further, we find attacks mounted on the surrogate models can be transferred with high accuracy. For example, a surrogate using only 50% of the Llama 2 model achieved an attack success rate (ASR) of 70%, a substantial improvement over attacking the LLM directly, where we only observed a 22% ASR. These results show that extracting surrogate classifiers is a viable (and highly effective) means for modeling (and therein addressing) the vulnerability of aligned models to jailbreaking attacks.

Optimization problems with nonlinear cost functions and combinatorial constraints appear in many real-world applications but remain challenging to solve efficiently compared to their linear counterparts. To bridge this gap, we propose SurCo that learns linear text{Sur}rogate costs which can be used in existing text{Co}mbinatorial solvers to output good solutions to the original nonlinear combinatorial optimization problem. The surrogate costs are learned end-to-end with nonlinear loss by differentiating through the linear surrogate solver, combining the flexibility of gradient-based methods with the structure of linear combinatorial optimization. We propose three SurCo variants: SurCo-zero for individual nonlinear problems, SurCo-prior for problem distributions, and SurCo-hybrid to combine both distribution and problem-specific information. We give theoretical intuition motivating SurCo, and evaluate it empirically. Experiments show that SurCo finds better solutions faster than state-of-the-art and domain expert approaches in real-world optimization problems such as embedding table sharding, inverse photonic design, and nonlinear route planning.

As Contrastive Language-Image Pre-training (CLIP) models are increasingly adopted for diverse downstream tasks and integrated into large vision-language models (VLMs), their susceptibility to adversarial perturbations has emerged as a critical concern. In this work, we introduce X-Transfer, a novel attack method that exposes a universal adversarial vulnerability in CLIP. X-Transfer generates a Universal Adversarial Perturbation (UAP) capable of deceiving various CLIP encoders and downstream VLMs across different samples, tasks, and domains. We refer to this property as super transferability--a single perturbation achieving cross-data, cross-domain, cross-model, and cross-task adversarial transferability simultaneously. This is achieved through surrogate scaling, a key innovation of our approach. Unlike existing methods that rely on fixed surrogate models, which are computationally intensive to scale, X-Transfer employs an efficient surrogate scaling strategy that dynamically selects a small subset of suitable surrogates from a large search space. Extensive evaluations demonstrate that X-Transfer significantly outperforms previous state-of-the-art UAP methods, establishing a new benchmark for adversarial transferability across CLIP models. The code is publicly available in our https://github.com/HanxunH/XTransferBench{GitHub repository}.

Machine learning has demonstrated remarkable performance over finite datasets, yet whether the scores over the fixed benchmarks can sufficiently indicate the model's performance in the real world is still in discussion. In reality, an ideal robust model will probably behave similarly to the oracle (e.g., the human users), thus a good evaluation protocol is probably to evaluate the models' behaviors in comparison to the oracle. In this paper, we introduce a new robustness measurement that directly measures the image classification model's performance compared with a surrogate oracle (i.e., a foundation model). Besides, we design a simple method that can accomplish the evaluation beyond the scope of the benchmarks. Our method extends the image datasets with new samples that are sufficiently perturbed to be distinct from the ones in the original sets, but are still bounded within the same image-label structure the original test image represents, constrained by a foundation model pretrained with a large amount of samples. As a result, our new method will offer us a new way to evaluate the models' robustness performance, free of limitations of fixed benchmarks or constrained perturbations, although scoped by the power of the oracle. In addition to the evaluation results, we also leverage our generated data to understand the behaviors of the model and our new evaluation strategies.

Bayesian optimization (BO) has established itself as a leading strategy for efficiently optimizing expensive-to-evaluate functions. Existing BO methods mostly rely on Gaussian process (GP) surrogate models and are not applicable to (doubly-stochastic) Gaussian Cox processes, where the observation process is modulated by a latent intensity function modeled as a GP. In this paper, we propose a novel maximum a posteriori inference of Gaussian Cox processes. It leverages the Laplace approximation and change of kernel technique to transform the problem into a new reproducing kernel Hilbert space, where it becomes more tractable computationally. It enables us to obtain both a functional posterior of the latent intensity function and the covariance of the posterior, thus extending existing works that often focus on specific link functions or estimating the posterior mean. Using the result, we propose a BO framework based on the Gaussian Cox process model and further develop a Nystr\"om approximation for efficient computation. Extensive evaluations on various synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate significant improvement over state-of-the-art inference solutions for Gaussian Cox processes, as well as effective BO with a wide range of acquisition functions designed through the underlying Gaussian Cox process model.

A large-scale deep model pre-trained on massive labeled or unlabeled data transfers well to downstream tasks. Linear evaluation freezes parameters in the pre-trained model and trains a linear classifier separately, which is efficient and attractive for transfer. However, little work has investigated the classifier in linear evaluation except for the default logistic regression. Inspired by the statistical efficiency of naive Bayes, the paper revisits the classical topic on discriminative vs. generative classifiers. Theoretically, the paper considers the surrogate loss instead of the zero-one loss in analyses and generalizes the classical results from binary cases to multiclass ones. We show that, under mild assumptions, multiclass naive Bayes requires O(log n) samples to approach its asymptotic error while the corresponding multiclass logistic regression requires O(n) samples, where n is the feature dimension. To establish it, we present a multiclass H-consistency bound framework and an explicit bound for logistic loss, which are of independent interests. Simulation results on a mixture of Gaussian validate our theoretical findings. Experiments on various pre-trained deep vision models show that naive Bayes consistently converges faster as the number of data increases. Besides, naive Bayes shows promise in few-shot cases and we observe the "two regimes" phenomenon in pre-trained supervised models. Our code is available at https://github.com/ML-GSAI/Revisiting-Dis-vs-Gen-Classifiers.

We develop a novel method for carrying out model selection for Bayesian autoencoders (BAEs) by means of prior hyper-parameter optimization. Inspired by the common practice of type-II maximum likelihood optimization and its equivalence to Kullback-Leibler divergence minimization, we propose to optimize the distributional sliced-Wasserstein distance (DSWD) between the output of the autoencoder and the empirical data distribution. The advantages of this formulation are that we can estimate the DSWD based on samples and handle high-dimensional problems. We carry out posterior estimation of the BAE parameters via stochastic gradient Hamiltonian Monte Carlo and turn our BAE into a generative model by fitting a flexible Dirichlet mixture model in the latent space. Consequently, we obtain a powerful alternative to variational autoencoders, which are the preferred choice in modern applications of autoencoders for representation learning with uncertainty. We evaluate our approach qualitatively and quantitatively using a vast experimental campaign on a number of unsupervised learning tasks and show that, in small-data regimes where priors matter, our approach provides state-of-the-art results, outperforming multiple competitive baselines.

Amid mounting concern about the reliability and credibility of machine learning research, we present a principled framework for making robust and generalizable claims: the multiverse analysis. Our framework builds upon the multiverse analysis (Steegen et al., 2016) introduced in response to psychology's own reproducibility crisis. To efficiently explore high-dimensional and often continuous ML search spaces, we model the multiverse with a Gaussian Process surrogate and apply Bayesian experimental design. Our framework is designed to facilitate drawing robust scientific conclusions about model performance, and thus our approach focuses on exploration rather than conventional optimization. In the first of two case studies, we investigate disputed claims about the relative merit of adaptive optimizers. Second, we synthesize conflicting research on the effect of learning rate on the large batch training generalization gap. For the machine learning community, the multiverse analysis is a simple and effective technique for identifying robust claims, for increasing transparency, and a step toward improved reproducibility.

To balance quality and cost, various domain areas of science and engineering run simulations at multiple levels of sophistication. Multi-fidelity active learning aims to learn a direct mapping from input parameters to simulation outputs at the highest fidelity by actively acquiring data from multiple fidelity levels. However, existing approaches based on Gaussian processes are hardly scalable to high-dimensional data. Deep learning-based methods often impose a hierarchical structure in hidden representations, which only supports passing information from low-fidelity to high-fidelity. These approaches can lead to the undesirable propagation of errors from low-fidelity representations to high-fidelity ones. We propose a novel framework called Disentangled Multi-fidelity Deep Bayesian Active Learning (D-MFDAL), which learns the surrogate models conditioned on the distribution of functions at multiple fidelities. On benchmark tasks of learning deep surrogates of partial differential equations including heat equation, Poisson's equation and fluid simulations, our approach significantly outperforms state-of-the-art in prediction accuracy and sample efficiency.

Foundation models in video generation are demonstrating remarkable capabilities as potential world models for simulating the physical world. However, their application in high-stakes domains like surgery, which demand deep, specialized causal knowledge rather than general physical rules, remains a critical unexplored gap. To systematically address this challenge, we present SurgVeo, the first expert-curated benchmark for video generation model evaluation in surgery, and the Surgical Plausibility Pyramid (SPP), a novel, four-tiered framework tailored to assess model outputs from basic appearance to complex surgical strategy. On the basis of the SurgVeo benchmark, we task the advanced Veo-3 model with a zero-shot prediction task on surgical clips from laparoscopic and neurosurgical procedures. A panel of four board-certified surgeons evaluates the generated videos according to the SPP. Our results reveal a distinct "plausibility gap": while Veo-3 achieves exceptional Visual Perceptual Plausibility, it fails critically at higher levels of the SPP, including Instrument Operation Plausibility, Environment Feedback Plausibility, and Surgical Intent Plausibility. This work provides the first quantitative evidence of the chasm between visually convincing mimicry and causal understanding in surgical AI. Our findings from SurgVeo and the SPP establish a crucial foundation and roadmap for developing future models capable of navigating the complexities of specialized, real-world healthcare domains.

The analysis of parametric and non-parametric uncertainties of very large dynamical systems requires the construction of a stochastic model of said system. Linear approaches relying on random matrix theory and principal componant analysis can be used when systems undergo low-frequency vibrations. In the case of fast dynamics and wave propagation, we investigate a random generator of boundary conditions for fast submodels by using machine learning. We show that the use of non-linear techniques in machine learning and data-driven methods is highly relevant. Physics-informed neural networks is a possible choice for a data-driven method to replace linear modal analysis. An architecture that support a random component is necessary for the construction of the stochastic model of the physical system for non-parametric uncertainties, since the goal is to learn the underlying probabilistic distribution of uncertainty in the data. Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) are suited for such applications, where the Wasserstein-GAN with gradient penalty variant offers improved convergence results for our problem. The objective of our approach is to train a GAN on data from a finite element method code (Fenics) so as to extract stochastic boundary conditions for faster finite element predictions on a submodel. The submodel and the training data have both the same geometrical support. It is a zone of interest for uncertainty quantification and relevant to engineering purposes. In the exploitation phase, the framework can be viewed as a randomized and parametrized simulation generator on the submodel, which can be used as a Monte Carlo estimator.

The National Airspace System (NAS) is a complex and evolving system that enables safe and efficient aviation. Advanced air mobility concepts and new airspace entrants, such as unmanned aircraft, must integrate into the NAS without degrading overall safety or efficiency. For instance, regulations, standards, and systems are required to mitigate the risk of a midair collision between aircraft. Monte Carlo simulations have been a foundational capability for decades to develop, assess, and certify aircraft conflict avoidance systems. These are often validated through human-in-the-loop experiments and flight testing. For many aviation safety studies, manned aircraft behavior is represented using dynamic Bayesian networks. The original statistical models were developed from 2008-2013 to support safety simulations for altitudes above 500 feet Above Ground Level (AGL). However, these models were not sufficient to assess the safety of smaller UAS operations below 500 feet AGL. In response, newer models with altitude floors below 500 feet AGL have been in development since 2018. Many of the models assume that aircraft behavior is uncorrelated and not dependent on air traffic services or nearby aircraft. Our research objective was to compare the various uncorrelated models of conventional aircraft and identify how the models differ. Particularly if models of rotorcraft were sufficiently different than models of fixed-wing aircraft to require type specific models. The primary contribution is guidance on which uncorrelated models to leverage when evaluating the performance of a collision avoidance system designed for low altitude operations. We also address which models can be surrogates for noncooperative aircraft without transponders.

We consider the problem of how a teacher algorithm can enable an unknown Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) student to become good at a skill over a wide range of diverse environments. To do so, we study how a teacher algorithm can learn to generate a learning curriculum, whereby it sequentially samples parameters controlling a stochastic procedural generation of environments. Because it does not initially know the capacities of its student, a key challenge for the teacher is to discover which environments are easy, difficult or unlearnable, and in what order to propose them to maximize the efficiency of learning over the learnable ones. To achieve this, this problem is transformed into a surrogate continuous bandit problem where the teacher samples environments in order to maximize absolute learning progress of its student. We present a new algorithm modeling absolute learning progress with Gaussian mixture models (ALP-GMM). We also adapt existing algorithms and provide a complete study in the context of DRL. Using parameterized variants of the BipedalWalker environment, we study their efficiency to personalize a learning curriculum for different learners (embodiments), their robustness to the ratio of learnable/unlearnable environments, and their scalability to non-linear and high-dimensional parameter spaces. Videos and code are available at https://github.com/flowersteam/teachDeepRL.

Transferability is the property of adversarial examples to be misclassified by other models than the surrogate model for which they were crafted. Previous research has shown that early stopping the training of the surrogate model substantially increases transferability. A common hypothesis to explain this is that deep neural networks (DNNs) first learn robust features, which are more generic, thus a better surrogate. Then, at later epochs, DNNs learn non-robust features, which are more brittle, hence worst surrogate. First, we tend to refute this hypothesis, using transferability as a proxy for representation similarity. We then establish links between transferability and the exploration of the loss landscape in parameter space, focusing on sharpness, which is affected by early stopping. This leads us to evaluate surrogate models trained with seven minimizers that minimize both loss value and loss sharpness. Among them, SAM consistently outperforms early stopping by up to 28.8 percentage points. We discover that the strong SAM regularization from large flat neighborhoods tightly links to transferability. Finally, the best sharpness-aware minimizers prove competitive with other training methods and complement existing transferability techniques.

Protein fitness optimization involves finding a protein sequence that maximizes desired quantitative properties in a combinatorially large design space of possible sequences. Recent developments in steering protein generative models (e.g diffusion models, language models) offer a promising approach. However, by and large, past studies have optimized surrogate rewards and/or utilized large amounts of labeled data for steering, making it unclear how well existing methods perform and compare to each other in real-world optimization campaigns where fitness is measured by low-throughput wet-lab assays. In this study, we explore fitness optimization using small amounts (hundreds) of labeled sequence-fitness pairs and comprehensively evaluate strategies such as classifier guidance and posterior sampling for guiding generation from different discrete diffusion models of protein sequences. We also demonstrate how guidance can be integrated into adaptive sequence selection akin to Thompson sampling in Bayesian optimization, showing that plug-and-play guidance strategies offer advantages compared to alternatives such as reinforcement learning with protein language models.

Popular approaches for quantifying predictive uncertainty in deep neural networks often involve distributions over weights or multiple models, for instance via Markov Chain sampling, ensembling, or Monte Carlo dropout. These techniques usually incur overhead by having to train multiple model instances or do not produce very diverse predictions. This comprehensive and extensive survey aims to familiarize the reader with an alternative class of models based on the concept of Evidential Deep Learning: For unfamiliar data, they aim to admit "what they don't know", and fall back onto a prior belief. Furthermore, they allow uncertainty estimation in a single model and forward pass by parameterizing distributions over distributions. This survey recapitulates existing works, focusing on the implementation in a classification setting, before surveying the application of the same paradigm to regression. We also reflect on the strengths and weaknesses compared to other existing methods and provide the most fundamental derivations using a unified notation to aid future research.

We present a neural network emulator to constrain the thermal parameters of the intergalactic medium (IGM) at 5.4z6.0 using the Lyman-displaystylealpha (Lydisplaystylealpha) forest flux auto-correlation function. Our auto-differentiable JAX-based framework accelerates the surrogate model generation process using approximately 100 sparsely sampled Nyx hydrodynamical simulations with varying combinations of thermal parameters, i.e., the temperature at mean density T_{{0}}, the slope of the temperaturedisplaystyle-density relation displaystylegamma, and the mean transmission flux langle{F}{rangle}. We show that this emulator has a typical accuracy of 1.0% across the specified redshift range. Bayesian inference of the IGM thermal parameters, incorporating emulator uncertainty propagation, is further expedited using NumPyro Hamiltonian Monte Carlo. We compare both the inference results and computational cost of our framework with the traditional nearest-neighbor interpolation approach applied to the same set of mock Lyalpha flux. By examining the credibility contours of the marginalized posteriors for T_{{0}},gamma,and{langle}{F}{rangle} obtained using the emulator, the statistical reliability of measurements is established through inference on 100 realistic mock data sets of the auto-correlation function.

Perturbative availability poisons (PAPs) add small changes to images to prevent their use for model training. Current research adopts the belief that practical and effective approaches to countering PAPs do not exist. In this paper, we argue that it is time to abandon this belief. We present extensive experiments showing that 12 state-of-the-art PAP methods are vulnerable to Image Shortcut Squeezing (ISS), which is based on simple compression. For example, on average, ISS restores the CIFAR-10 model accuracy to 81.73%, surpassing the previous best preprocessing-based countermeasures by 37.97% absolute. ISS also (slightly) outperforms adversarial training and has higher generalizability to unseen perturbation norms and also higher efficiency. Our investigation reveals that the property of PAP perturbations depends on the type of surrogate model used for poison generation, and it explains why a specific ISS compression yields the best performance for a specific type of PAP perturbation. We further test stronger, adaptive poisoning, and show it falls short of being an ideal defense against ISS. Overall, our results demonstrate the importance of considering various (simple) countermeasures to ensure the meaningfulness of analysis carried out during the development of PAP methods.

High-resolution imaging is crucial for enhancing visual clarity and enabling precise computer-assisted guidance in minimally invasive surgery (MIS). Despite the increasing adoption of 4K endoscopic systems, there remains a significant gap in publicly available native 4K datasets tailored specifically for robotic-assisted MIS. We introduce SurgiSR4K, the first publicly accessible surgical imaging and video dataset captured at a native 4K resolution, representing realistic conditions of robotic-assisted procedures. SurgiSR4K comprises diverse visual scenarios including specular reflections, tool occlusions, bleeding, and soft tissue deformations, meticulously designed to reflect common challenges faced during laparoscopic and robotic surgeries. This dataset opens up possibilities for a broad range of computer vision tasks that might benefit from high resolution data, such as super resolution (SR), smoke removal, surgical instrument detection, 3D tissue reconstruction, monocular depth estimation, instance segmentation, novel view synthesis, and vision-language model (VLM) development. SurgiSR4K provides a robust foundation for advancing research in high-resolution surgical imaging and fosters the development of intelligent imaging technologies aimed at enhancing performance, safety, and usability in image-guided robotic surgeries.

Recent works show that reducing the number of layers in a convolutional neural network can enhance efficiency while maintaining the performance of the network. Existing depth compression methods remove redundant non-linear activation functions and merge the consecutive convolution layers into a single layer. However, these methods suffer from a critical drawback; the kernel size of the merged layers becomes larger, significantly undermining the latency reduction gained from reducing the depth of the network. We show that this problem can be addressed by jointly pruning convolution layers and activation functions. To this end, we propose LayerMerge, a novel depth compression method that selects which activation layers and convolution layers to remove, to achieve a desired inference speed-up while minimizing performance loss. Since the corresponding selection problem involves an exponential search space, we formulate a novel surrogate optimization problem and efficiently solve it via dynamic programming. Empirical results demonstrate that our method consistently outperforms existing depth compression and layer pruning methods on various network architectures, both on image classification and generation tasks. We release the code at https://github.com/snu-mllab/LayerMerge.

Simulating atomic-scale processes, such as protein dynamics and catalytic reactions, is crucial for advancements in biology, chemistry, and materials science. Machine learning force fields (MLFFs) have emerged as powerful tools that achieve near quantum mechanical accuracy, with promising generalization capabilities. However, their practical use is often limited by long inference times compared to classical force fields, especially when running extensive molecular dynamics (MD) simulations required for many biological applications. In this study, we introduce BoostMD, a surrogate model architecture designed to accelerate MD simulations. BoostMD leverages node features computed at previous time steps to predict energies and forces based on positional changes. This approach reduces the complexity of the learning task, allowing BoostMD to be both smaller and significantly faster than conventional MLFFs. During simulations, the computationally intensive reference MLFF is evaluated only every N steps, while the lightweight BoostMD model handles the intermediate steps at a fraction of the computational cost. Our experiments demonstrate that BoostMD achieves an eight-fold speedup compared to the reference model and generalizes to unseen dipeptides. Furthermore, we find that BoostMD accurately samples the ground-truth Boltzmann distribution when running molecular dynamics. By combining efficient feature reuse with a streamlined architecture, BoostMD offers a robust solution for conducting large-scale, long-timescale molecular simulations, making high-accuracy ML-driven modeling more accessible and practical.

We develop a data-driven deep neural operator framework to approximate multiple output states for a diesel engine and generate real-time predictions with reasonable accuracy. As emission norms become more stringent, the need for fast and accurate models that enable analysis of system behavior have become an essential requirement for system development. The fast transient processes involved in the operation of a combustion engine make it difficult to develop accurate physics-based models for such systems. As an alternative to physics based models, we develop an operator-based regression model (DeepONet) to learn the relevant output states for a mean-value gas flow engine model using the engine operating conditions as input variables. We have adopted a mean-value model as a benchmark for comparison, simulated using Simulink. The developed approach necessitates using the initial conditions of the output states to predict the accurate sequence over the temporal domain. To this end, a sequence-to-sequence approach is embedded into the proposed framework. The accuracy of the model is evaluated by comparing the prediction output to ground truth generated from Simulink model. The maximum mathcal L_2 relative error observed was approximately 6.5%. The sensitivity of the DeepONet model is evaluated under simulated noise conditions and the model shows relatively low sensitivity to noise. The uncertainty in model prediction is further assessed by using a mean ensemble approach. The worst-case error at the (mu + 2sigma) boundary was found to be 12%. The proposed framework provides the ability to predict output states in real-time and enables data-driven learning of complex input-output operator mapping. As a result, this model can be applied during initial development stages, where accurate models may not be available.

Large language models (LLMs) have shown remarkable instruction-following capabilities and achieved impressive performances in various applications. However, the performances of LLMs depend heavily on the instructions given to them, which are typically manually tuned with substantial human efforts. Recent work has used the query-efficient Bayesian optimization (BO) algorithm to automatically optimize the instructions given to black-box LLMs. However, BO usually falls short when optimizing highly sophisticated (e.g., high-dimensional) objective functions, such as the functions mapping an instruction to the performance of an LLM. This is mainly due to the limited expressive power of the Gaussian process (GP) which is used by BO as a surrogate to model the objective function. Meanwhile, it has been repeatedly shown that neural networks (NNs), especially pre-trained transformers, possess strong expressive power and can model highly complex functions. So, we adopt a neural bandit algorithm which replaces the GP in BO by an NN surrogate to optimize instructions for black-box LLMs. More importantly, the neural bandit algorithm allows us to naturally couple the NN surrogate with the hidden representation learned by a pre-trained transformer (i.e., an open-source LLM), which significantly boosts its performance. These motivate us to propose our INSTruction optimization usIng Neural bandits Coupled with Transformers (INSTINCT) algorithm. We perform instruction optimization for ChatGPT and use extensive experiments to show that INSTINCT consistently outperforms baselines in different tasks, e.g., various instruction induction tasks and the task of improving zero-shot chain-of-thought instructions. Our code is available at https://github.com/xqlin98/INSTINCT.

Learning curve extrapolation aims to predict model performance in later epochs of training, based on the performance in earlier epochs. In this work, we argue that, while the inherent uncertainty in the extrapolation of learning curves warrants a Bayesian approach, existing methods are (i) overly restrictive, and/or (ii) computationally expensive. We describe the first application of prior-data fitted neural networks (PFNs) in this context. A PFN is a transformer, pre-trained on data generated from a prior, to perform approximate Bayesian inference in a single forward pass. We propose LC-PFN, a PFN trained to extrapolate 10 million artificial right-censored learning curves generated from a parametric prior proposed in prior art using MCMC. We demonstrate that LC-PFN can approximate the posterior predictive distribution more accurately than MCMC, while being over 10 000 times faster. We also show that the same LC-PFN achieves competitive performance extrapolating a total of 20 000 real learning curves from four learning curve benchmarks (LCBench, NAS-Bench-201, Taskset, and PD1) that stem from training a wide range of model architectures (MLPs, CNNs, RNNs, and Transformers) on 53 different datasets with varying input modalities (tabular, image, text, and protein data). Finally, we investigate its potential in the context of model selection and find that a simple LC-PFN based predictive early stopping criterion obtains 2 - 6x speed-ups on 45 of these datasets, at virtually no overhead.

Shape optimization is essential in aerospace vehicle design, including reentry systems, and propulsion system components, as it directly influences aerodynamic efficiency, structural integrity, and overall mission success. Rapid and accurate prediction of external and internal flows accelerates design iterations. To this end, we develop a new variant of DeepONet, called Fusion-DeepONet as a fast surrogate model for geometry-dependent hypersonic and supersonic flow fields. We evaluated Fusion-DeepONet in learning two external hypersonic flows and a supersonic shape-dependent internal flow problem. First, we compare the performance of Fusion-DeepONet with state-of-the-art neural operators to learn inviscid hypersonic flow around semi-elliptic blunt bodies for two grid types: uniform Cartesian and irregular grids. Fusion-DeepONet provides comparable accuracy to parameter-conditioned U-Net on uniform grids while outperforming MeshGraphNet and Vanilla-DeepONet on irregular grids. Fusion-DeepONet requires significantly fewer trainable parameters than U-Net, MeshGraphNet, and FNO. For the second hypersonic problem, we set up Fusion-DeepONet to map from geometry and free stream Mach number to the temperature field around a reentry capsule traveling at hypersonic speed. This fast surrogate is then improved to predict the spatial derivative of the temperature, resulting in an accurate prediction of heat flux at the surfaces of the capsule. To enhance the accuracy of spatial derivative prediction, we introduce a derivative-enhanced loss term with the least computation overhead. For the third problem, we show that Fusion-DeepONet outperforms MeshGraphNet in learning geometry-dependent supersonic flow in a converging-diverging nozzle configuration. For all the problems, we used high-fidelity simulations with a high-order entropy-stable DGSEM solver to generate training datasets with limited samples.

When solving inverse problems, it is increasingly popular to use pre-trained diffusion models as plug-and-play priors. This framework can accommodate different forward models without re-training while preserving the generative capability of diffusion models. Despite their success in many imaging inverse problems, most existing methods rely on privileged information such as derivative, pseudo-inverse, or full knowledge about the forward model. This reliance poses a substantial limitation that restricts their use in a wide range of problems where such information is unavailable, such as in many scientific applications. To address this issue, we propose Ensemble Kalman Diffusion Guidance (EnKG) for diffusion models, a derivative-free approach that can solve inverse problems by only accessing forward model evaluations and a pre-trained diffusion model prior. We study the empirical effectiveness of our method across various inverse problems, including scientific settings such as inferring fluid flows and astronomical objects, which are highly non-linear inverse problems that often only permit black-box access to the forward model.

Molecular dynamics (MD) is a powerful technique for studying microscopic phenomena, but its computational cost has driven significant interest in the development of deep learning-based surrogate models. We introduce generative modeling of molecular trajectories as a paradigm for learning flexible multi-task surrogate models of MD from data. By conditioning on appropriately chosen frames of the trajectory, we show such generative models can be adapted to diverse tasks such as forward simulation, transition path sampling, and trajectory upsampling. By alternatively conditioning on part of the molecular system and inpainting the rest, we also demonstrate the first steps towards dynamics-conditioned molecular design. We validate the full set of these capabilities on tetrapeptide simulations and show that our model can produce reasonable ensembles of protein monomers. Altogether, our work illustrates how generative modeling can unlock value from MD data towards diverse downstream tasks that are not straightforward to address with existing methods or even MD itself. Code is available at https://github.com/bjing2016/mdgen.

Physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) are emerging as popular mesh-free solvers for partial differential equations (PDEs). Recent extensions decompose the domain, applying different PINNs to solve the equation in each subdomain and aligning the solution at the interface of the subdomains. Hence, they can further alleviate the problem complexity, reduce the computational cost, and allow parallelization. However, the performance of the multi-domain PINNs is sensitive to the choice of the interface conditions for solution alignment. While quite a few conditions have been proposed, there is no suggestion about how to select the conditions according to specific problems. To address this gap, we propose META Learning of Interface Conditions (METALIC), a simple, efficient yet powerful approach to dynamically determine the optimal interface conditions for solving a family of parametric PDEs. Specifically, we develop two contextual multi-arm bandit models. The first one applies to the entire training procedure, and online updates a Gaussian process (GP) reward surrogate that given the PDE parameters and interface conditions predicts the solution error. The second one partitions the training into two stages, one is the stochastic phase and the other deterministic phase; we update a GP surrogate for each phase to enable different condition selections at the two stages so as to further bolster the flexibility and performance. We have shown the advantage of METALIC on four bench-mark PDE families.

Recent work in scientific machine learning (SciML) has focused on incorporating partial differential equation (PDE) information into the learning process. Much of this work has focused on relatively ``easy'' PDE operators (e.g., elliptic and parabolic), with less emphasis on relatively ``hard'' PDE operators (e.g., hyperbolic). Within numerical PDEs, the latter problem class requires control of a type of volume element or conservation constraint, which is known to be challenging. Delivering on the promise of SciML requires seamlessly incorporating both types of problems into the learning process. To address this issue, we propose ProbConserv, a framework for incorporating conservation constraints into a generic SciML architecture. To do so, ProbConserv combines the integral form of a conservation law with a Bayesian update. We provide a detailed analysis of ProbConserv on learning with the Generalized Porous Medium Equation (GPME), a widely-applicable parameterized family of PDEs that illustrates the qualitative properties of both easier and harder PDEs. ProbConserv is effective for easy GPME variants, performing well with state-of-the-art competitors; and for harder GPME variants it outperforms other approaches that do not guarantee volume conservation. ProbConserv seamlessly enforces physical conservation constraints, maintains probabilistic uncertainty quantification (UQ), and deals well with shocks and heteroscedasticities. In each case, it achieves superior predictive performance on downstream tasks.

This paper addresses the difficult problem of finding an optimal neural architecture design for a given image classification task. We propose a method that aggregates two main results of the previous state-of-the-art in neural architecture search. These are, appealing to the strong sampling efficiency of a search scheme based on sequential model-based optimization (SMBO), and increasing training efficiency by sharing weights among sampled architectures. Sequential search has previously demonstrated its capabilities to find state-of-the-art neural architectures for image classification. However, its computational cost remains high, even unreachable under modest computational settings. Affording SMBO with weight-sharing alleviates this problem. On the other hand, progressive search with SMBO is inherently greedy, as it leverages a learned surrogate function to predict the validation error of neural architectures. This prediction is directly used to rank the sampled neural architectures. We propose to attenuate the greediness of the original SMBO method by relaxing the role of the surrogate function so it predicts architecture sampling probability instead. We demonstrate with experiments on the CIFAR-10 dataset that our method, denominated Efficient progressive neural architecture search (EPNAS), leads to increased search efficiency, while retaining competitiveness of found architectures.

The Combined Algorithm Selection and Hyperparameters optimization (CASH) problem is one of the fundamental problems in Automated Machine Learning (AutoML). Motivated by the success of ensemble learning, recent AutoML systems build post-hoc ensembles to output the final predictions instead of using the best single learner. However, while most CASH methods focus on searching for a single learner with the best performance, they neglect the diversity among base learners (i.e., they may suggest similar configurations to previously evaluated ones), which is also a crucial consideration when building an ensemble. To tackle this issue and further enhance the ensemble performance, we propose DivBO, a diversity-aware framework to inject explicit search of diversity into the CASH problems. In the framework, we propose to use a diversity surrogate to predict the pair-wise diversity of two unseen configurations. Furthermore, we introduce a temporary pool and a weighted acquisition function to guide the search of both performance and diversity based on Bayesian optimization. Empirical results on 15 public datasets show that DivBO achieves the best average ranks (1.82 and 1.73) on both validation and test errors among 10 compared methods, including post-hoc designs in recent AutoML systems and state-of-the-art baselines for ensemble learning on CASH problems.

Meta-Bayesian optimisation (meta-BO) aims to improve the sample efficiency of Bayesian optimisation by leveraging data from related tasks. While previous methods successfully meta-learn either a surrogate model or an acquisition function independently, joint training of both components remains an open challenge. This paper proposes the first end-to-end differentiable meta-BO framework that generalises neural processes to learn acquisition functions via transformer architectures. We enable this end-to-end framework with reinforcement learning (RL) to tackle the lack of labelled acquisition data. Early on, we notice that training transformer-based neural processes from scratch with RL is challenging due to insufficient supervision, especially when rewards are sparse. We formalise this claim with a combinatorial analysis showing that the widely used notion of regret as a reward signal exhibits a logarithmic sparsity pattern in trajectory lengths. To tackle this problem, we augment the RL objective with an auxiliary task that guides part of the architecture to learn a valid probabilistic model as an inductive bias. We demonstrate that our method achieves state-of-the-art regret results against various baselines in experiments on standard hyperparameter optimisation tasks and also outperforms others in the real-world problems of mixed-integer programming tuning, antibody design, and logic synthesis for electronic design automation.

We introduce a gradient-free framework for Bayesian Optimal Experimental Design (BOED) in sequential settings, aimed at complex systems where gradient information is unavailable. Our method combines Ensemble Kalman Inversion (EKI) for design optimization with the Affine-Invariant Langevin Dynamics (ALDI) sampler for efficient posterior sampling-both of which are derivative-free and ensemble-based. To address the computational challenges posed by nested expectations in BOED, we propose variational Gaussian and parametrized Laplace approximations that provide tractable upper and lower bounds on the Expected Information Gain (EIG). These approximations enable scalable utility estimation in high-dimensional spaces and PDE-constrained inverse problems. We demonstrate the performance of our framework through numerical experiments ranging from linear Gaussian models to PDE-based inference tasks, highlighting the method's robustness, accuracy, and efficiency in information-driven experimental design.

The goal of this article is to provide an introduction to the desirability function approach to multi-objective optimization (direct and surrogate model-based), and multi-objective hyperparameter tuning. This work is based on the paper by Kuhn (2016). It presents a `Python` implementation of Kuhn's `R` package `desirability`. The `Python` package `spotdesirability` is available as part of the `sequential parameter optimization` framework. After a brief introduction to the desirability function approach is presented, three examples are given that demonstrate how to use the desirability functions for classical optimization, surrogate-model based optimization, and hyperparameter tuning.

Biophysical modeling, particularly involving partial differential equations (PDEs), offers significant potential for tailoring disease treatment protocols to individual patients. However, the inverse problem-solving aspect of these models presents a substantial challenge, either due to the high computational requirements of model-based approaches or the limited robustness of deep learning (DL) methods. We propose a novel framework that leverages the unique strengths of both approaches in a synergistic manner. Our method incorporates a DL ensemble for initial parameter estimation, facilitating efficient downstream evolutionary sampling initialized with this DL-based prior. We showcase the effectiveness of integrating a rapid deep-learning algorithm with a high-precision evolution strategy in estimating brain tumor cell concentrations from magnetic resonance images. The DL-Prior plays a pivotal role, significantly constraining the effective sampling-parameter space. This reduction results in a fivefold convergence acceleration and a Dice-score of 95%

Finite Element Analysis (FEA) is a powerful but computationally intensive method for simulating physical phenomena. Recent advancements in machine learning have led to surrogate models capable of accelerating FEA. Yet there are still limitations in developing surrogates of transient FEA models that can simultaneously predict the solutions for both nodes and elements with applicability on both the 2D and 3D domains. Motivated by this research gap, this study proposes DeepFEA, a deep learning-based framework that leverages a multilayer Convolutional Long Short-Term Memory (ConvLSTM) network branching into two parallel convolutional neural networks to predict the solutions for both nodes and elements of FEA models. The proposed network is optimized using a novel adaptive learning algorithm, called Node-Element Loss Optimization (NELO). NELO minimizes the error occurring at both branches of the network enabling the prediction of solutions for transient FEA simulations. The experimental evaluation of DeepFEA is performed on three datasets in the context of structural mechanics, generated to serve as publicly available reference datasets. The results show that DeepFEA can achieve less than 3% normalized mean and root mean squared error for 2D and 3D simulation scenarios, and inference times that are two orders of magnitude faster than FEA. In contrast, relevant state-of-the-art methods face challenges with multi-dimensional output and dynamic input prediction. Furthermore, DeepFEA's robustness was demonstrated in a real-life biomedical scenario, confirming its suitability for accurate and efficient predictions of FEA simulations.

Sampling from the posterior distribution poses a major computational challenge in solving inverse problems using latent diffusion models. Common methods rely on Tweedie's first-order moments, which are known to induce a quality-limiting bias. Existing second-order approximations are impractical due to prohibitive computational costs, making standard reverse diffusion processes intractable for posterior sampling. This paper introduces Second-order Tweedie sampler from Surrogate Loss (STSL), a novel sampler that offers efficiency comparable to first-order Tweedie with a tractable reverse process using second-order approximation. Our theoretical results reveal that the second-order approximation is lower bounded by our surrogate loss that only requires O(1) compute using the trace of the Hessian, and by the lower bound we derive a new drift term to make the reverse process tractable. Our method surpasses SoTA solvers PSLD and P2L, achieving 4X and 8X reduction in neural function evaluations, respectively, while notably enhancing sampling quality on FFHQ, ImageNet, and COCO benchmarks. In addition, we show STSL extends to text-guided image editing and addresses residual distortions present from corrupted images in leading text-guided image editing methods. To our best knowledge, this is the first work to offer an efficient second-order approximation in solving inverse problems using latent diffusion and editing real-world images with corruptions.

We propose PROSE-FD, a zero-shot multimodal PDE foundational model for simultaneous prediction of heterogeneous two-dimensional physical systems related to distinct fluid dynamics settings. These systems include shallow water equations and the Navier-Stokes equations with incompressible and compressible flow, regular and complex geometries, and different buoyancy settings. This work presents a new transformer-based multi-operator learning approach that fuses symbolic information to perform operator-based data prediction, i.e. non-autoregressive. By incorporating multiple modalities in the inputs, the PDE foundation model builds in a pathway for including mathematical descriptions of the physical behavior. We pre-train our foundation model on 6 parametric families of equations collected from 13 datasets, including over 60K trajectories. Our model outperforms popular operator learning, computer vision, and multi-physics models, in benchmark forward prediction tasks. We test our architecture choices with ablation studies.

A digital twin is a virtual replica of a real-world physical phenomena that uses mathematical modeling to characterize and simulate its defining features. By constructing digital twins for disease processes, we can perform in-silico simulations that mimic patients' health conditions and counterfactual outcomes under hypothetical interventions in a virtual setting. This eliminates the need for invasive procedures or uncertain treatment decisions. In this paper, we propose a method to identify digital twin model parameters using only noninvasive patient health data. We approach the digital twin modeling as a composite inverse problem, and observe that its structure resembles pretraining and finetuning in self-supervised learning (SSL). Leveraging this, we introduce a physics-informed SSL algorithm that initially pretrains a neural network on the pretext task of solving the physical model equations. Subsequently, the model is trained to reconstruct low-dimensional health measurements from noninvasive modalities while being constrained by the physical equations learned in pretraining. We apply our method to identify digital twins of cardiac hemodynamics using noninvasive echocardiogram videos, and demonstrate its utility in unsupervised disease detection and in-silico clinical trials.

There has been increasing interest in modeling survival data using deep learning methods in medical research. In this paper, we proposed a Bayesian hierarchical deep neural networks model for modeling and prediction of survival data. Compared with previously studied methods, the new proposal can provide not only point estimate of survival probability but also quantification of the corresponding uncertainty, which can be of crucial importance in predictive modeling and subsequent decision making. The favorable statistical properties of point and uncertainty estimates were demonstrated by simulation studies and real data analysis. The Python code implementing the proposed approach was provided.

Solving a linear system Ax=b is a fundamental scientific computing primitive for which numerous solvers and preconditioners have been developed. These come with parameters whose optimal values depend on the system being solved and are often impossible or too expensive to identify; thus in practice sub-optimal heuristics are used. We consider the common setting in which many related linear systems need to be solved, e.g. during a single numerical simulation. In this scenario, can we sequentially choose parameters that attain a near-optimal overall number of iterations, without extra matrix computations? We answer in the affirmative for Successive Over-Relaxation (SOR), a standard solver whose parameter omega has a strong impact on its runtime. For this method, we prove that a bandit online learning algorithm--using only the number of iterations as feedback--can select parameters for a sequence of instances such that the overall cost approaches that of the best fixed omega as the sequence length increases. Furthermore, when given additional structural information, we show that a contextual bandit method asymptotically achieves the performance of the instance-optimal policy, which selects the best omega for each instance. Our work provides the first learning-theoretic treatment of high-precision linear system solvers and the first end-to-end guarantees for data-driven scientific computing, demonstrating theoretically the potential to speed up numerical methods using well-understood learning algorithms.

Complex, temporally evolving phenomena, from climate to brain activity, are governed by dynamical systems (DS). DS reconstruction (DSR) seeks to infer generative surrogate models of these from observed data, reproducing their long-term behavior. Existing DSR approaches require purpose-training for any new system observed, lacking the zero-shot and in-context inference capabilities known from LLMs. Here we introduce DynaMix, a novel multivariate ALRNN-based mixture-of-experts architecture pre-trained for DSR, the first DSR model able to generalize zero-shot to out-of-domain DS. Just from a provided context signal, without any re-training, DynaMix faithfully forecasts the long-term evolution of novel DS where existing time series (TS) foundation models, like Chronos, fail -- at a fraction of the number of parameters and orders of magnitude faster inference times. DynaMix outperforms TS foundation models in terms of long-term statistics, and often also short-term forecasts, even on real-world time series, like traffic or weather data, typically used for training and evaluating TS models, but not at all part of DynaMix' training corpus. We illustrate some of the failure modes of TS models for DSR problems, and conclude that models built on DS principles may bear a huge potential also for advancing the TS prediction field.

Novel architectures have recently improved generative image synthesis leading to excellent visual quality in various tasks. Much of this success is due to the scalability of these architectures and hence caused by a dramatic increase in model complexity and in the computational resources invested in training these models. Our work questions the underlying paradigm of compressing large training data into ever growing parametric representations. We rather present an orthogonal, semi-parametric approach. We complement comparably small diffusion or autoregressive models with a separate image database and a retrieval strategy. During training we retrieve a set of nearest neighbors from this external database for each training instance and condition the generative model on these informative samples. While the retrieval approach is providing the (local) content, the model is focusing on learning the composition of scenes based on this content. As demonstrated by our experiments, simply swapping the database for one with different contents transfers a trained model post-hoc to a novel domain. The evaluation shows competitive performance on tasks which the generative model has not been trained on, such as class-conditional synthesis, zero-shot stylization or text-to-image synthesis without requiring paired text-image data. With negligible memory and computational overhead for the external database and retrieval we can significantly reduce the parameter count of the generative model and still outperform the state-of-the-art.

Evasion attacks are a threat to machine learning models, where adversaries attempt to affect classifiers by injecting malicious samples. An alarming side-effect of evasion attacks is their ability to transfer among different models: this property is called transferability. Therefore, an attacker can produce adversarial samples on a custom model (surrogate) to conduct the attack on a victim's organization later. Although literature widely discusses how adversaries can transfer their attacks, their experimental settings are limited and far from reality. For instance, many experiments consider both attacker and defender sharing the same dataset, balance level (i.e., how the ground truth is distributed), and model architecture. In this work, we propose the DUMB attacker model. This framework allows analyzing if evasion attacks fail to transfer when the training conditions of surrogate and victim models differ. DUMB considers the following conditions: Dataset soUrces, Model architecture, and the Balance of the ground truth. We then propose a novel testbed to evaluate many state-of-the-art evasion attacks with DUMB; the testbed consists of three computer vision tasks with two distinct datasets each, four types of balance levels, and three model architectures. Our analysis, which generated 13K tests over 14 distinct attacks, led to numerous novel findings in the scope of transferable attacks with surrogate models. In particular, mismatches between attackers and victims in terms of dataset source, balance levels, and model architecture lead to non-negligible loss of attack performance.

Hoffmann et al. (2022) propose three methods for estimating a compute-optimal scaling law. We attempt to replicate their third estimation procedure, which involves fitting a parametric loss function to a reconstruction of data from their plots. We find that the reported estimates are inconsistent with their first two estimation methods, fail at fitting the extracted data, and report implausibly narrow confidence intervals--intervals this narrow would require over 600,000 experiments, while they likely only ran fewer than 500. In contrast, our rederivation of the scaling law using the third approach yields results that are compatible with the findings from the first two estimation procedures described by Hoffmann et al.

While complex simulations of physical systems have been widely used in engineering and scientific computing, lowering their often prohibitive computational requirements has only recently been tackled by deep learning approaches. In this paper, we present GraphSplineNets, a novel deep-learning method to speed up the forecasting of physical systems by reducing the grid size and number of iteration steps of deep surrogate models. Our method uses two differentiable orthogonal spline collocation methods to efficiently predict response at any location in time and space. Additionally, we introduce an adaptive collocation strategy in space to prioritize sampling from the most important regions. GraphSplineNets improve the accuracy-speedup tradeoff in forecasting various dynamical systems with increasing complexity, including the heat equation, damped wave propagation, Navier-Stokes equations, and real-world ocean currents in both regular and irregular domains.

We propose a new method for learning the structure of convolutional neural networks (CNNs) that is more efficient than recent state-of-the-art methods based on reinforcement learning and evolutionary algorithms. Our approach uses a sequential model-based optimization (SMBO) strategy, in which we search for structures in order of increasing complexity, while simultaneously learning a surrogate model to guide the search through structure space. Direct comparison under the same search space shows that our method is up to 5 times more efficient than the RL method of Zoph et al. (2018) in terms of number of models evaluated, and 8 times faster in terms of total compute. The structures we discover in this way achieve state of the art classification accuracies on CIFAR-10 and ImageNet.

We propose GS-LRM, a scalable large reconstruction model that can predict high-quality 3D Gaussian primitives from 2-4 posed sparse images in 0.23 seconds on single A100 GPU. Our model features a very simple transformer-based architecture; we patchify input posed images, pass the concatenated multi-view image tokens through a sequence of transformer blocks, and decode final per-pixel Gaussian parameters directly from these tokens for differentiable rendering. In contrast to previous LRMs that can only reconstruct objects, by predicting per-pixel Gaussians, GS-LRM naturally handles scenes with large variations in scale and complexity. We show that our model can work on both object and scene captures by training it on Objaverse and RealEstate10K respectively. In both scenarios, the models outperform state-of-the-art baselines by a wide margin. We also demonstrate applications of our model in downstream 3D generation tasks. Our project webpage is available at: https://sai-bi.github.io/project/gs-lrm/ .

Understanding and analyzing markets is crucial, yet analytical equilibrium solutions remain largely infeasible. Recent breakthroughs in equilibrium computation rely on zeroth-order policy gradient estimation. These approaches commonly suffer from high variance and are computationally expensive. The use of fully differentiable simulators would enable more efficient gradient estimation. However, the discrete allocation of goods in economic simulations is a non-differentiable operation. This renders the first-order Monte Carlo gradient estimator inapplicable and the learning feedback systematically misleading. We propose a novel smoothing technique that creates a surrogate market game, in which first-order methods can be applied. We provide theoretical bounds on the resulting bias which justifies solving the smoothed game instead. These bounds also allow choosing the smoothing strength a priori such that the resulting estimate has low variance. Furthermore, we validate our approach via numerous empirical experiments. Our method theoretically and empirically outperforms zeroth-order methods in approximation quality and computational efficiency.

We consider the problem of global optimization with noisy zeroth order oracles - a well-motivated problem useful for various applications ranging from hyper-parameter tuning for deep learning to new material design. Existing work relies on Gaussian processes or other non-parametric family, which suffers from the curse of dimensionality. In this paper, we propose a new algorithm GO-UCB that leverages a parametric family of functions (e.g., neural networks) instead. Under a realizable assumption and a few other mild geometric conditions, we show that GO-UCB achieves a cumulative regret of O(T) where T is the time horizon. At the core of GO-UCB is a carefully designed uncertainty set over parameters based on gradients that allows optimistic exploration. Synthetic and real-world experiments illustrate GO-UCB works better than Bayesian optimization approaches in high dimensional cases, even if the model is misspecified.

3D reconstruction of dynamic scenes is a long-standing problem in computer graphics and increasingly difficult the less information is available. Shape-from-Template (SfT) methods aim to reconstruct a template-based geometry from RGB images or video sequences, often leveraging just a single monocular camera without depth information, such as regular smartphone recordings. Unfortunately, existing reconstruction methods are either unphysical and noisy or slow in optimization. To solve this problem, we propose a novel SfT reconstruction algorithm for cloth using a pre-trained neural surrogate model that is fast to evaluate, stable, and produces smooth reconstructions due to a regularizing physics simulation. Differentiable rendering of the simulated mesh enables pixel-wise comparisons between the reconstruction and a target video sequence that can be used for a gradient-based optimization procedure to extract not only shape information but also physical parameters such as stretching, shearing, or bending stiffness of the cloth. This allows to retain a precise, stable, and smooth reconstructed geometry while reducing the runtime by a factor of 400-500 compared to phi-SfT, a state-of-the-art physics-based SfT approach.

Some classical uncertainty quantification problems require the estimation of multiple expectations. Estimating all of them accurately is crucial and can have a major impact on the analysis to perform, and standard existing Monte Carlo methods can be costly to do so. We propose here a new procedure based on importance sampling and control variates for estimating more efficiently multiple expectations with the same sample. We first show that there exists a family of optimal estimators combining both importance sampling and control variates, which however cannot be used in practice because they require the knowledge of the values of the expectations to estimate. Motivated by the form of these optimal estimators and some interesting properties, we therefore propose an adaptive algorithm. The general idea is to adaptively update the parameters of the estimators for approaching the optimal ones. We suggest then a quantitative stopping criterion that exploits the trade-off between approaching these optimal parameters and having a sufficient budget left. This left budget is then used to draw a new independent sample from the final sampling distribution, allowing to get unbiased estimators of the expectations. We show how to apply our procedure to sensitivity analysis, by estimating Sobol' indices and quantifying the impact of the input distributions. Finally, realistic test cases show the practical interest of the proposed algorithm, and its significant improvement over estimating the expectations separately.

Offline model-based optimization aims to maximize a black-box objective function with a static dataset of designs and their scores. In this paper, we focus on biological sequence design to maximize some sequence score. A recent approach employs bidirectional learning, combining a forward mapping for exploitation and a backward mapping for constraint, and it relies on the neural tangent kernel (NTK) of an infinitely wide network to build a proxy model. Though effective, the NTK cannot learn features because of its parametrization, and its use prevents the incorporation of powerful pre-trained Language Models (LMs) that can capture the rich biophysical information in millions of biological sequences. We adopt an alternative proxy model, adding a linear head to a pre-trained LM, and propose a linearization scheme. This yields a closed-form loss and also takes into account the biophysical information in the pre-trained LM. In addition, the forward mapping and the backward mapping play different roles and thus deserve different weights during sequence optimization. To achieve this, we train an auxiliary model and leverage its weak supervision signal via a bi-level optimization framework to effectively learn how to balance the two mappings. Further, by extending the framework, we develop the first learning rate adaptation module Adaptive-eta, which is compatible with all gradient-based algorithms for offline model-based optimization. Experimental results on DNA/protein sequence design tasks verify the effectiveness of our algorithm. Our code is available~https://anonymous.4open.science/r/BIB-ICLR2023-Submission/README.md{here.}

The core challenge of high-dimensional and expensive black-box optimization (BBO) is how to obtain better performance faster with little function evaluation cost. The essence of the problem is how to design an efficient optimization strategy tailored to the target task. This paper designs a powerful optimization framework to automatically learn the optimization strategies from the target or cheap surrogate task without human intervention. However, current methods are weak for this due to poor representation of optimization strategy. To achieve this, 1) drawing on the mechanism of genetic algorithm, we propose a deep neural network framework called B2Opt, which has a stronger representation of optimization strategies based on survival of the fittest; 2) B2Opt can utilize the cheap surrogate functions of the target task to guide the design of the efficient optimization strategies. Compared to the state-of-the-art BBO baselines, B2Opt can achieve multiple orders of magnitude performance improvement with less function evaluation cost. We validate our proposal on high-dimensional synthetic functions and two real-world applications. We also find that deep B2Opt performs better than shallow ones.

Semi-supervised crowd counting is an important yet challenging task. A popular approach is to iteratively generate pseudo-labels for unlabeled data and add them to the training set. The key is to use uncertainty to select reliable pseudo-labels. In this paper, we propose a novel method to calibrate model uncertainty for crowd counting. Our method takes a supervised uncertainty estimation strategy to train the model through a surrogate function. This ensures the uncertainty is well controlled throughout the training. We propose a matching-based patch-wise surrogate function to better approximate uncertainty for crowd counting tasks. The proposed method pays a sufficient amount of attention to details, while maintaining a proper granularity. Altogether our method is able to generate reliable uncertainty estimation, high quality pseudolabels, and achieve state-of-the-art performance in semisupervised crowd counting.

Triggered by the realization that AI emulators can rival the performance of traditional numerical weather prediction models running on HPC systems, there is now an increasing number of large AI models that address use cases such as forecasting, downscaling, or nowcasting. While the parallel developments in the AI literature focus on foundation models -- models that can be effectively tuned to address multiple, different use cases -- the developments on the weather and climate side largely focus on single-use cases with particular emphasis on mid-range forecasting. We close this gap by introducing Prithvi WxC, a 2.3 billion parameter foundation model developed using 160 variables from the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2). Prithvi WxC employs an encoder-decoder-based architecture, incorporating concepts from various recent transformer models to effectively capture both regional and global dependencies in the input data. The model has been designed to accommodate large token counts to model weather phenomena in different topologies at fine resolutions. Furthermore, it is trained with a mixed objective that combines the paradigms of masked reconstruction with forecasting. We test the model on a set of challenging downstream tasks namely: Autoregressive rollout forecasting, Downscaling, Gravity wave flux parameterization, and Extreme events estimation. The pretrained model with 2.3 billion parameters, along with the associated fine-tuning workflows, has been publicly released as an open-source contribution via Hugging Face.

Currently, it is hard to reap the benefits of deep learning for Bayesian methods, which allow the explicit specification of prior knowledge and accurately capture model uncertainty. We present Prior-Data Fitted Networks (PFNs). PFNs leverage large-scale machine learning techniques to approximate a large set of posteriors. The only requirement for PFNs to work is the ability to sample from a prior distribution over supervised learning tasks (or functions). Our method restates the objective of posterior approximation as a supervised classification problem with a set-valued input: it repeatedly draws a task (or function) from the prior, draws a set of data points and their labels from it, masks one of the labels and learns to make probabilistic predictions for it based on the set-valued input of the rest of the data points. Presented with a set of samples from a new supervised learning task as input, PFNs make probabilistic predictions for arbitrary other data points in a single forward propagation, having learned to approximate Bayesian inference. We demonstrate that PFNs can near-perfectly mimic Gaussian processes and also enable efficient Bayesian inference for intractable problems, with over 200-fold speedups in multiple setups compared to current methods. We obtain strong results in very diverse areas such as Gaussian process regression, Bayesian neural networks, classification for small tabular data sets, and few-shot image classification, demonstrating the generality of PFNs. Code and trained PFNs are released at https://github.com/automl/TransformersCanDoBayesianInference.

Heliophysics is central to understanding and forecasting space weather events and solar activity. Despite decades of high-resolution observations from the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO), most models remain task-specific and constrained by scarce labeled data, limiting their capacity to generalize across solar phenomena. We introduce Surya, a 366M parameter foundation model for heliophysics designed to learn general-purpose solar representations from multi-instrument SDO observations, including eight Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) channels and five Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) products. Surya employs a spatiotemporal transformer architecture with spectral gating and long--short range attention, pretrained on high-resolution solar image forecasting tasks and further optimized through autoregressive rollout tuning. Zero-shot evaluations demonstrate its ability to forecast solar dynamics and flare events, while downstream fine-tuning with parameter-efficient Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA) shows strong performance on solar wind forecasting, active region segmentation, solar flare forecasting, and EUV spectra. Surya is the first foundation model in heliophysics that uses time advancement as a pretext task on full-resolution SDO data. Its novel architecture and performance suggest that the model is able to learn the underlying physics behind solar evolution.

We address the computational challenges of solving parametric PDEs with non parametrized geometric variations and non-reducible problems, such as those involving shocks and discontinuities of variable positions. Traditional dimensionality reduction methods like POD struggle with these scenarios due to slowly decaying Kolmogorov widths. To overcome this, we propose a novel non-linear dimensionality reduction technique to reduce the required modes for representation. The non-linear reduction is obtained through a POD after applying a transformation on the fields, which we call optimal mappings, and is a solution to an optimization problem in infinite dimension. The proposed learning framework combines morphing techniques, non-linear dimensionality reduction, and Gaussian Process Regression (GPR). The problem is reformulated on a reference geometry before applying the dimensionality reduction. Our method learns both the optimal mapping, and the solution fields, using a series of GPR models, enabling efficient and accurate modeling of complex parametric PDEs with geometrical variability. The results obtained concur with current state-of-the-art models. We mainly compare our method with the winning solution of the ML4CFD NeurIPS 2024 competition.

Diffusion models (DMs) have proven to be effective in modeling high-dimensional distributions, leading to their widespread adoption for representing complex priors in Bayesian inverse problems (BIPs). However, current DM-based posterior sampling methods proposed for solving common BIPs rely on heuristic approximations to the generative process. To exploit the generative capability of DMs and avoid the usage of such approximations, we propose an ensemble-based algorithm that performs posterior sampling without the use of heuristic approximations. Our algorithm is motivated by existing works that combine DM-based methods with the sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) method. By examining how the prior evolves through the diffusion process encoded by the pre-trained score function, we derive a modified partial differential equation (PDE) governing the evolution of the corresponding posterior distribution. This PDE includes a modified diffusion term and a reweighting term, which can be simulated via stochastic weighted particle methods. Theoretically, we prove that the error between the true posterior distribution can be bounded in terms of the training error of the pre-trained score function and the number of particles in the ensemble. Empirically, we validate our algorithm on several inverse problems in imaging to show that our method gives more accurate reconstructions compared to existing DM-based methods.

Solving Bayesian inverse problems efficiently remains a significant challenge due to the complexity of posterior distributions and the computational cost of traditional sampling methods. Given a series of observations and the forward model, we want to recover the distribution of the parameters, conditioned on observed experimental data. We show, that combining Conditional Flow Mathching (CFM) with transformer-based architecture, we can efficiently sample from such kind of distribution, conditioned on variable number of observations.

When learning simulations for modeling physical phenomena in industrial designs, geometrical variabilities are of prime interest. While classical regression techniques prove effective for parameterized geometries, practical scenarios often involve the absence of shape parametrization during the inference stage, leaving us with only mesh discretizations as available data. Learning simulations from such mesh-based representations poses significant challenges, with recent advances relying heavily on deep graph neural networks to overcome the limitations of conventional machine learning approaches. Despite their promising results, graph neural networks exhibit certain drawbacks, including their dependency on extensive datasets and limitations in providing built-in predictive uncertainties or handling large meshes. In this work, we propose a machine learning method that do not rely on graph neural networks. Complex geometrical shapes and variations with fixed topology are dealt with using well-known mesh morphing onto a common support, combined with classical dimensionality reduction techniques and Gaussian processes. The proposed methodology can easily deal with large meshes without the need for explicit shape parameterization and provides crucial predictive uncertainties, which are essential for informed decision-making. In the considered numerical experiments, the proposed method is competitive with respect to existing graph neural networks, regarding training efficiency and accuracy of the predictions.

We propose a novel hierarchical Bayesian model for learning with a large (possibly infinite) number of tasks/episodes, which suits well the few-shot meta learning problem. We consider episode-wise random variables to model episode-specific target generative processes, where these local random variables are governed by a higher-level global random variate. The global variable helps memorize the important information from historic episodes while controlling how much the model needs to be adapted to new episodes in a principled Bayesian manner. Within our model framework, the prediction on a novel episode/task can be seen as a Bayesian inference problem. However, a main obstacle in learning with a large/infinite number of local random variables in online nature, is that one is not allowed to store the posterior distribution of the current local random variable for frequent future updates, typical in conventional variational inference. We need to be able to treat each local variable as a one-time iterate in the optimization. We propose a Normal-Inverse-Wishart model, for which we show that this one-time iterate optimization becomes feasible due to the approximate closed-form solutions for the local posterior distributions. The resulting algorithm is more attractive than the MAML in that it is not required to maintain computational graphs for the whole gradient optimization steps per episode. Our approach is also different from existing Bayesian meta learning methods in that unlike dealing with a single random variable for the whole episodes, our approach has a hierarchical structure that allows one-time episodic optimization, desirable for principled Bayesian learning with many/infinite tasks. The code is available at https://github.com/minyoungkim21/niwmeta.

Bayesian Optimization (BO) is a foundational strategy in the field of engineering design optimization for efficiently handling black-box functions with many constraints and expensive evaluations. This paper introduces a fast and accurate BO framework that leverages Pre-trained Transformers for Bayesian Optimization (PFN4sBO) to address constrained optimization problems in engineering. Unlike traditional BO methods that rely heavily on Gaussian Processes (GPs), our approach utilizes Prior-data Fitted Networks (PFNs), a type of pre-trained transformer, to infer constraints and optimal solutions without requiring any iterative retraining. We demonstrate the effectiveness of PFN-based BO through a comprehensive benchmark consisting of fifteen test problems, encompassing synthetic, structural, and engineering design challenges. Our findings reveal that PFN-based BO significantly outperforms Constrained Expected Improvement and Penalty-based GP methods by an order of magnitude in speed while also outperforming them in accuracy in identifying feasible, optimal solutions. This work showcases the potential of integrating machine learning with optimization techniques in solving complex engineering challenges, heralding a significant leap forward for optimization methodologies, opening up the path to using PFN-based BO to solve other challenging problems, such as enabling user-guided interactive BO, adaptive experiment design, or multi-objective design optimization. Additionally, we establish a benchmark for evaluating BO algorithms in engineering design, offering a robust platform for future research and development in the field. This benchmark framework for evaluating new BO algorithms in engineering design will be published at https://github.com/rosenyu304/BOEngineeringBenchmark.

The largest experiments in machine learning now require resources far beyond the budget of all but a few institutions. Fortunately, it has recently been shown that the results of these huge experiments can often be extrapolated from the results of a sequence of far smaller, cheaper experiments. In this work, we show that not only can the extrapolation be done based on the size of the model, but on the size of the problem as well. By conducting a sequence of experiments using AlphaZero and Hex, we show that the performance achievable with a fixed amount of compute degrades predictably as the game gets larger and harder. Along with our main result, we further show that the test-time and train-time compute available to an agent can be traded off while maintaining performance.

Bayesian optimization (BO) has contributed greatly to improving model performance by suggesting promising hyperparameter configurations iteratively based on observations from multiple training trials. However, only partial knowledge (i.e., the measured performances of trained models and their hyperparameter configurations) from previous trials is transferred. On the other hand, Self-Distillation (SD) only transfers partial knowledge learned by the task model itself. To fully leverage the various knowledge gained from all training trials, we propose the BOSS framework, which combines BO and SD. BOSS suggests promising hyperparameter configurations through BO and carefully selects pre-trained models from previous trials for SD, which are otherwise abandoned in the conventional BO process. BOSS achieves significantly better performance than both BO and SD in a wide range of tasks including general image classification, learning with noisy labels, semi-supervised learning, and medical image analysis tasks.

Inverse design refers to the problem of optimizing the input of an objective function in order to enact a target outcome. For many real-world engineering problems, the objective function takes the form of a simulator that predicts how the system state will evolve over time, and the design challenge is to optimize the initial conditions that lead to a target outcome. Recent developments in learned simulation have shown that graph neural networks (GNNs) can be used for accurate, efficient, differentiable estimation of simulator dynamics, and support high-quality design optimization with gradient- or sampling-based optimization procedures. However, optimizing designs from scratch requires many expensive model queries, and these procedures exhibit basic failures on either non-convex or high-dimensional problems.In this work, we show how denoising diffusion models (DDMs) can be used to solve inverse design problems efficiently and propose a particle sampling algorithm for further improving their efficiency. We perform experiments on a number of fluid dynamics design challenges, and find that our approach substantially reduces the number of calls to the simulator compared to standard techniques.

The acceleration in the adoption of AI-based automated decision-making systems poses a challenge for evaluating the fairness of algorithmic decisions, especially in the absence of ground truth. When designing interventions, uplift modeling is used extensively to identify candidates that are likely to benefit from treatment. However, these models remain particularly susceptible to fairness evaluation due to the lack of ground truth on the outcome measure since a candidate cannot be in both treatment and control simultaneously. In this article, we propose a framework that overcomes the missing ground truth problem by generating surrogates to serve as a proxy for counterfactual labels of uplift modeling campaigns. We then leverage the surrogate ground truth to conduct a more comprehensive binary fairness evaluation. We show how to apply the approach in a comprehensive study from a real-world marketing campaign for promotional offers and demonstrate its enhancement for fairness evaluation.

We introduce a new class of spatially stochastic physics and data informed deep latent models for parametric partial differential equations (PDEs) which operate through scalable variational neural processes. We achieve this by assigning probability measures to the spatial domain, which allows us to treat collocation grids probabilistically as random variables to be marginalised out. Adapting this spatial statistics view, we solve forward and inverse problems for parametric PDEs in a way that leads to the construction of Gaussian process models of solution fields. The implementation of these random grids poses a unique set of challenges for inverse physics informed deep learning frameworks and we propose a new architecture called Grid Invariant Convolutional Networks (GICNets) to overcome these challenges. We further show how to incorporate noisy data in a principled manner into our physics informed model to improve predictions for problems where data may be available but whose measurement location does not coincide with any fixed mesh or grid. The proposed method is tested on a nonlinear Poisson problem, Burgers equation, and Navier-Stokes equations, and we provide extensive numerical comparisons. We demonstrate significant computational advantages over current physics informed neural learning methods for parametric PDEs while improving the predictive capabilities and flexibility of these models.

Practitioners frequently aim to infer an unobserved population trajectory using sample snapshots at multiple time points. For instance, in single-cell sequencing, scientists would like to learn how gene expression evolves over time. But sequencing any cell destroys that cell. So we cannot access any cell's full trajectory, but we can access snapshot samples from many cells. Stochastic differential equations are commonly used to analyze systems with full individual-trajectory access; since here we have only sample snapshots, these methods are inapplicable. The deep learning community has recently explored using Schr\"odinger bridges (SBs) and their extensions to estimate these dynamics. However, these methods either (1) interpolate between just two time points or (2) require a single fixed reference dynamic within the SB, which is often just set to be Brownian motion. But learning piecewise from adjacent time points can fail to capture long-term dependencies. And practitioners are typically able to specify a model class for the reference dynamic but not the exact values of the parameters within it. So we propose a new method that (1) learns the unobserved trajectories from sample snapshots across multiple time points and (2) requires specification only of a class of reference dynamics, not a single fixed one. In particular, we suggest an iterative projection method inspired by Schr\"odinger bridges; we alternate between learning a piecewise SB on the unobserved trajectories and using the learned SB to refine our best guess for the dynamics within the reference class. We demonstrate the advantages of our method via a well-known simulated parametric model from ecology, simulated and real data from systems biology, and real motion-capture data.

Recent advances in generative AI have brought incredible breakthroughs in several areas, including medical imaging. These generative models have tremendous potential not only to help safely share medical data via synthetic datasets but also to perform an array of diverse applications, such as anomaly detection, image-to-image translation, denoising, and MRI reconstruction. However, due to the complexity of these models, their implementation and reproducibility can be difficult. This complexity can hinder progress, act as a use barrier, and dissuade the comparison of new methods with existing works. In this study, we present MONAI Generative Models, a freely available open-source platform that allows researchers and developers to easily train, evaluate, and deploy generative models and related applications. Our platform reproduces state-of-art studies in a standardised way involving different architectures (such as diffusion models, autoregressive transformers, and GANs), and provides pre-trained models for the community. We have implemented these models in a generalisable fashion, illustrating that their results can be extended to 2D or 3D scenarios, including medical images with different modalities (like CT, MRI, and X-Ray data) and from different anatomical areas. Finally, we adopt a modular and extensible approach, ensuring long-term maintainability and the extension of current applications for future features.

It has recently been conjectured that neural network solution sets reachable via stochastic gradient descent (SGD) are convex, considering permutation invariances (Entezari et al., 2022). This means that a linear path can connect two independent solutions with low loss, given the weights of one of the models are appropriately permuted. However, current methods to test this theory often require very wide networks to succeed. In this work, we conjecture that more generally, the SGD solution set is a "star domain" that contains a "star model" that is linearly connected to all the other solutions via paths with low loss values, modulo permutations. We propose the Starlight algorithm that finds a star model of a given learning task. We validate our claim by showing that this star model is linearly connected with other independently found solutions. As an additional benefit of our study, we demonstrate better uncertainty estimates on the Bayesian Model Averaging over the obtained star domain. Further, we demonstrate star models as potential substitutes for model ensembles. Our code is available at https://github.com/aktsonthalia/starlight.

Diffusion models have emerged as the new state-of-the-art generative model with high quality samples, with intriguing properties such as mode coverage and high flexibility. They have also been shown to be effective inverse problem solvers, acting as the prior of the distribution, while the information of the forward model can be granted at the sampling stage. Nonetheless, as the generative process remains in the same high dimensional (i.e. identical to data dimension) space, the models have not been extended to 3D inverse problems due to the extremely high memory and computational cost. In this paper, we combine the ideas from the conventional model-based iterative reconstruction with the modern diffusion models, which leads to a highly effective method for solving 3D medical image reconstruction tasks such as sparse-view tomography, limited angle tomography, compressed sensing MRI from pre-trained 2D diffusion models. In essence, we propose to augment the 2D diffusion prior with a model-based prior in the remaining direction at test time, such that one can achieve coherent reconstructions across all dimensions. Our method can be run in a single commodity GPU, and establishes the new state-of-the-art, showing that the proposed method can perform reconstructions of high fidelity and accuracy even in the most extreme cases (e.g. 2-view 3D tomography). We further reveal that the generalization capacity of the proposed method is surprisingly high, and can be used to reconstruct volumes that are entirely different from the training dataset.

We study uncertainty quantification for partial differential equations subject to domain uncertainty. We parameterize the random domain using the model recently considered by Chernov and Le (2024) as well as Harbrecht, Schmidlin, and Schwab (2024) in which the input random field is assumed to belong to a Gevrey smoothness class. This approach has the advantage of being substantially more general than models which assume a particular parametric representation of the input random field such as a Karhunen-Loeve series expansion. We consider both the Poisson equation as well as the heat equation and design randomly shifted lattice quasi-Monte Carlo (QMC) cubature rules for the computation of the expected solution under domain uncertainty. We show that these QMC rules exhibit dimension-independent, essentially linear cubature convergence rates in this framework. In addition, we complete the error analysis by taking into account the approximation errors incurred by dimension truncation of the random input field and finite element discretization. Numerical experiments are presented to confirm the theoretical rates.

Statistical shape modeling (SSM) enables population-based quantitative analysis of anatomical shapes, informing clinical diagnosis. Deep learning approaches predict correspondence-based SSM directly from unsegmented 3D images but require calibrated uncertainty quantification, motivating Bayesian formulations. Variational information bottleneck DeepSSM (VIB-DeepSSM) is an effective, principled framework for predicting probabilistic shapes of anatomy from images with aleatoric uncertainty quantification. However, VIB is only half-Bayesian and lacks epistemic uncertainty inference. We derive a fully Bayesian VIB formulation and demonstrate the efficacy of two scalable implementation approaches: concrete dropout and batch ensemble. Additionally, we introduce a novel combination of the two that further enhances uncertainty calibration via multimodal marginalization. Experiments on synthetic shapes and left atrium data demonstrate that the fully Bayesian VIB network predicts SSM from images with improved uncertainty reasoning without sacrificing accuracy.

Multimodal magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) constitutes the first line of investigation for clinicians in the care of brain tumors, providing crucial insights for surgery planning, treatment monitoring, and biomarker identification. Pre-training on large datasets have been shown to help models learn transferable representations and adapt with minimal labeled data. This behavior is especially valuable in medical imaging, where annotations are often scarce. However, applying this paradigm to multimodal medical data introduces a challenge: most existing approaches assume that all imaging modalities are available during both pre-training and fine-tuning. In practice, missing modalities often occur due to acquisition issues, specialist unavailability, or specific experimental designs on small in-house datasets. Consequently, a common approach involves training a separate model for each desired modality combination, making the process both resource-intensive and impractical for clinical use. Therefore, we introduce BM-MAE, a masked image modeling pre-training strategy tailored for multimodal MRI data. The same pre-trained model seamlessly adapts to any combination of available modalities, extracting rich representations that capture both intra- and inter-modal information. This allows fine-tuning on any subset of modalities without requiring architectural changes, while still benefiting from a model pre-trained on the full set of modalities. Extensive experiments show that the proposed pre-training strategy outperforms or remains competitive with baselines that require separate pre-training for each modality subset, while substantially surpassing training from scratch on several downstream tasks. Additionally, it can quickly and efficiently reconstruct missing modalities, highlighting its practical value. Code and trained models are available at: https://github.com/Lucas-rbnt/BM-MAE