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SubscribeShort-term Volatility Estimation for High Frequency Trades using Gaussian processes (GPs)
The fundamental theorem behind financial markets is that stock prices are intrinsically complex and stochastic. One of the complexities is the volatility associated with stock prices. Volatility is a tendency for prices to change unexpectedly [1]. Price volatility is often detrimental to the return economics, and thus, investors should factor it in whenever making investment decisions, choices, and temporal or permanent moves. It is, therefore, crucial to make necessary and regular short and long-term stock price volatility forecasts for the safety and economics of investors returns. These forecasts should be accurate and not misleading. Different models and methods, such as ARCH GARCH models, have been intuitively implemented to make such forecasts. However, such traditional means fail to capture the short-term volatility forecasts effectively. This paper, therefore, investigates and implements a combination of numeric and probabilistic models for short-term volatility and return forecasting for high-frequency trades. The essence is that one-day-ahead volatility forecasts were made with Gaussian Processes (GPs) applied to the outputs of a Numerical market prediction (NMP) model. Firstly, the stock price data from NMP was corrected by a GP. Since it is not easy to set price limits in a market due to its free nature and randomness, a Censored GP was used to model the relationship between the corrected stock prices and returns. Forecasting errors were evaluated using the implied and estimated data.
QuantAgent: Price-Driven Multi-Agent LLMs for High-Frequency Trading
Recent advances in Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated impressive capabilities in financial reasoning and market understanding. Multi-agent LLM frameworks such as TradingAgent and FINMEM augment these models to long-horizon investment tasks, leveraging fundamental and sentiment-based inputs for strategic decision-making. However, such systems are ill-suited for the high-speed, precision-critical demands of High-Frequency Trading (HFT). HFT requires rapid, risk-aware decisions based on structured, short-horizon signals, including technical indicators, chart patterns, and trend-based features, distinct from the long-term semantic reasoning typical of traditional financial LLM applications. To this end, we introduce QuantAgent, the first multi-agent LLM framework explicitly designed for high-frequency algorithmic trading. The system decomposes trading into four specialized agents, Indicator, Pattern, Trend, and Risk, each equipped with domain-specific tools and structured reasoning capabilities to capture distinct aspects of market dynamics over short temporal windows. In zero-shot evaluations across ten financial instruments, including Bitcoin and Nasdaq futures, QuantAgent demonstrates superior performance in both predictive accuracy and cumulative return over 4-hour trading intervals, outperforming strong neural and rule-based baselines. Our findings suggest that combining structured financial priors with language-native reasoning unlocks new potential for traceable, real-time decision systems in high-frequency financial markets.
TRADES: Generating Realistic Market Simulations with Diffusion Models
Financial markets are complex systems characterized by high statistical noise, nonlinearity, and constant evolution. Thus, modeling them is extremely hard. We address the task of generating realistic and responsive Limit Order Book (LOB) market simulations, which are fundamental for calibrating and testing trading strategies, performing market impact experiments, and generating synthetic market data. Previous works lack realism, usefulness, and responsiveness of the generated simulations. To bridge this gap, we propose a novel TRAnsformer-based Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Engine for LOB Simulations (TRADES). TRADES generates realistic order flows conditioned on the state of the market, leveraging a transformer-based architecture that captures the temporal and spatial characteristics of high-frequency market data. There is a notable absence of quantitative metrics for evaluating generative market simulation models in the literature. To tackle this problem, we adapt the predictive score, a metric measured as an MAE, by training a stock price predictive model on synthetic data and testing it on real data. We compare TRADES with previous works on two stocks, reporting an x3.27 and x3.47 improvement over SoTA according to the predictive score, demonstrating that we generate useful synthetic market data for financial downstream tasks. We assess TRADES's market simulation realism and responsiveness, showing that it effectively learns the conditional data distribution and successfully reacts to an experimental agent, giving sprout to possible calibrations and evaluations of trading strategies and market impact experiments. We developed DeepMarket, the first open-source Python framework for market simulation with deep learning. Our repository includes a synthetic LOB dataset composed of TRADES's generates simulations. We release the code at github.com/LeonardoBerti00/DeepMarket.
Frequency-domain multiplexing of SNSPDs with tunable superconducting resonators
This work culminates in a demonstration of an alternative Frequency Domain Multiplexing (FDM) scheme for Superconducting Nanowire Single-Photon Detectors (SNSPDs) using the Kinetic inductance Parametric UP-converter (KPUP) made out of NbTiN. There are multiple multiplexing architectures for SNSPDs that are already in use, but FDM could prove superior in applications where the operational bias currents are very low, especially for mid- and far-infrared SNSPDs. Previous FDM schemes integrated the SNSPD within the resonator, while in this work we use an external resonator, which gives more flexibility to optimize the SNSPD architecture. The KPUP is a DC-biased superconducting resonator in which a nanowire is used as its inductive element to enable sensitivity to current perturbations. When coupled to an SNSPD, the KPUP can be used to read out current pulses on the few μA scale. The KPUP is made out of NbTiN, which has high non-linear kinetic inductance for increased sensitivity at higher current bias and high operating temperature. Meanwhile, the SNSPD is made from WSi, which is a popular material for broadband SNSPDs. To read out the KPUP and SNSPD array, a software-defined radio platform and a graphics processing unit are used. Frequency Domain Multiplexed SNSPDs have applications in astronomy, remote sensing, exoplanet science, dark matter detection, and quantum sensing.
