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Nov 13

LaDCast: A Latent Diffusion Model for Medium-Range Ensemble Weather Forecasting

Accurate probabilistic weather forecasting demands both high accuracy and efficient uncertainty quantification, challenges that overburden both ensemble numerical weather prediction (NWP) and recent machine-learning methods. We introduce LaDCast, the first global latent-diffusion framework for medium-range ensemble forecasting, which generates hourly ensemble forecasts entirely in a learned latent space. An autoencoder compresses high-dimensional ERA5 reanalysis fields into a compact representation, and a transformer-based diffusion model produces sequential latent updates with arbitrary hour initialization. The model incorporates Geometric Rotary Position Embedding (GeoRoPE) to account for the Earth's spherical geometry, a dual-stream attention mechanism for efficient conditioning, and sinusoidal temporal embeddings to capture seasonal patterns. LaDCast achieves deterministic and probabilistic skill close to that of the European Centre for Medium-Range Forecast IFS-ENS, without any explicit perturbations. Notably, LaDCast demonstrates superior performance in tracking rare extreme events such as cyclones, capturing their trajectories more accurately than established models. By operating in latent space, LaDCast reduces storage and compute by orders of magnitude, demonstrating a practical path toward forecasting at kilometer-scale resolution in real time. We open-source our code and models and provide the training and evaluation pipelines at: https://github.com/tonyzyl/ladcast.

  • 2 authors
·
Jun 10

FuXi-S2S: A machine learning model that outperforms conventional global subseasonal forecast models

Skillful subseasonal forecasts are crucial for various sectors of society but pose a grand scientific challenge. Recently, machine learning based weather forecasting models outperform the most successful numerical weather predictions generated by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), but have not yet surpassed conventional models at subseasonal timescales. This paper introduces FuXi Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (FuXi-S2S), a machine learning model that provides global daily mean forecasts up to 42 days, encompassing five upper-air atmospheric variables at 13 pressure levels and 11 surface variables. FuXi-S2S, trained on 72 years of daily statistics from ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis data, outperforms the ECMWF's state-of-the-art Subseasonal-to-Seasonal model in ensemble mean and ensemble forecasts for total precipitation and outgoing longwave radiation, notably enhancing global precipitation forecast. The improved performance of FuXi-S2S can be primarily attributed to its superior capability to capture forecast uncertainty and accurately predict the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), extending the skillful MJO prediction from 30 days to 36 days. Moreover, FuXi-S2S not only captures realistic teleconnections associated with the MJO, but also emerges as a valuable tool for discovering precursor signals, offering researchers insights and potentially establishing a new paradigm in Earth system science research.

  • 11 authors
·
Dec 15, 2023

SEEDS: Emulation of Weather Forecast Ensembles with Diffusion Models

Probabilistic forecasting is crucial to decision-making under uncertainty about future weather. The dominant approach is to use an ensemble of forecasts to represent and quantify uncertainty in operational numerical weather prediction. However, generating ensembles is computationally costly. In this paper, we propose to generate ensemble forecasts at scale by leveraging recent advances in generative artificial intelligence. Our approach learns a data-driven probabilistic diffusion model from the 5-member ensemble GEFS reforecast dataset. The model can then be sampled efficiently to produce realistic weather forecasts, conditioned on a few members of the operational GEFS forecasting system. The generated ensembles have similar predictive skill as the full GEFS 31-member ensemble, evaluated against ERA5 reanalysis, and emulate well the statistics of large physics-based ensembles. We also apply the same methodology to developing a diffusion model for generative post-processing: the model directly learns to correct biases present in the emulated forecasting system by leveraging reanalysis data as labels during training. Ensembles from this generative post-processing model show greater reliability and accuracy, particularly in extreme event classification. In general, they are more reliable and forecast the probability of extreme weather more accurately than the GEFS operational ensemble. Our models achieve these results at less than 1/10th of the computational cost incurred by the operational GEFS system.

  • 5 authors
·
Jun 24, 2023

CanadaFireSat: Toward high-resolution wildfire forecasting with multiple modalities

Canada experienced in 2023 one of the most severe wildfire seasons in recent history, causing damage across ecosystems, destroying communities, and emitting large quantities of CO2. This extreme wildfire season is symptomatic of a climate-change-induced increase in the length and severity of the fire season that affects the boreal ecosystem. Therefore, it is critical to empower wildfire management in boreal communities with better mitigation solutions. Wildfire probability maps represent an important tool for understanding the likelihood of wildfire occurrence and the potential severity of future wildfires. The massive increase in the availability of Earth observation data has enabled the development of deep learning-based wildfire forecasting models, aiming at providing precise wildfire probability maps at different spatial and temporal scales. A main limitation of such methods is their reliance on coarse-resolution environmental drivers and satellite products, leading to wildfire occurrence prediction of reduced resolution, typically around sim 0.1{\deg}. This paper presents a benchmark dataset: CanadaFireSat, and baseline methods for high-resolution: 100 m wildfire forecasting across Canada, leveraging multi-modal data from high-resolution multi-spectral satellite images (Sentinel-2 L1C), mid-resolution satellite products (MODIS), and environmental factors (ERA5 reanalysis data). Our experiments consider two major deep learning architectures. We observe that using multi-modal temporal inputs outperforms single-modal temporal inputs across all metrics, achieving a peak performance of 60.3% in F1 score for the 2023 wildfire season, a season never seen during model training. This demonstrates the potential of multi-modal deep learning models for wildfire forecasting at high-resolution and continental scale.

  • 4 authors
·
Jun 10

Using Explainable AI and Transfer Learning to understand and predict the maintenance of Atlantic blocking with limited observational data

Blocking events are an important cause of extreme weather, especially long-lasting blocking events that trap weather systems in place. The duration of blocking events is, however, underestimated in climate models. Explainable Artificial Intelligence are a class of data analysis methods that can help identify physical causes of prolonged blocking events and diagnose model deficiencies. We demonstrate this approach on an idealized quasigeostrophic model developed by Marshall and Molteni (1993). We train a convolutional neural network (CNN), and subsequently, build a sparse predictive model for the persistence of Atlantic blocking, conditioned on an initial high-pressure anomaly. Shapley Additive ExPlanation (SHAP) analysis reveals that high-pressure anomalies in the American Southeast and North Atlantic, separated by a trough over Atlantic Canada, contribute significantly to prediction of sustained blocking events in the Atlantic region. This agrees with previous work that identified precursors in the same regions via wave train analysis. When we apply the same CNN to blockings in the ERA5 atmospheric reanalysis, there is insufficient data to accurately predict persistent blocks. We partially overcome this limitation by pre-training the CNN on the plentiful data of the Marshall-Molteni model, and then using Transfer Learning to achieve better predictions than direct training. SHAP analysis before and after transfer learning allows a comparison between the predictive features in the reanalysis and the quasigeostrophic model, quantifying dynamical biases in the idealized model. This work demonstrates the potential for machine learning methods to extract meaningful precursors of extreme weather events and achieve better prediction using limited observational data.

  • 5 authors
·
Apr 12, 2024

Video Compression for Spatiotemporal Earth System Data

Large-scale Earth system datasets, from high-resolution remote sensing imagery to spatiotemporal climate model outputs, exhibit characteristics analogous to those of standard videos. Their inherent spatial, temporal, and spectral redundancies can thus be readily exploited by established video compression techniques. Here, we present xarrayvideo, a Python library for compressing multichannel spatiotemporal datasets by encoding them as videos. Our approach achieves compression ratios of up to 250x while maintaining high fidelity by leveraging standard, well-optimized video codecs through ffmpeg. We demonstrate the library's effectiveness on four real-world multichannel spatiotemporal datasets: DynamicEarthNet (very high resolution Planet images), DeepExtremeCubes (high resolution Sentinel-2 images), ERA5 (weather reanalysis data), and the SimpleS2 dataset (high resolution multichannel Sentinel-2 images), achieving Peak Signal-to-Noise Ratios (PSNRs) of 55.86, 40.60, 46.58, and 43.23 dB at 0.1 bits per pixel per band (bpppb) and 65.91, 54.28, 62.90, and 55.04 dB at 1 bpppb. We are redistributing two of these datasets, DeepExtremeCubes (2.3 Tb) and DynamicEarthNet (525 Gb), in the machine-learning-ready and cloud-ready TACO format through HuggingFace at significantly reduced sizes (270 Gb and 8.5 Gb, respectively) without compromising quality (PSNR 55.77-56.65 and 60.15). No performance loss is observed when the compressed versions of these datasets are used in their respective deep learning-based downstream tasks (next step reflectance prediction and landcover segmentation). In conclusion, xarrayvideo presents an efficient solution for handling the rapidly growing size of Earth observation datasets, making advanced compression techniques accessible and practical to the Earth science community. The library is available for use at https://github.com/IPL-UV/xarrayvideo

  • 3 authors
·
Jun 24

Pangu-Weather: A 3D High-Resolution Model for Fast and Accurate Global Weather Forecast

In this paper, we present Pangu-Weather, a deep learning based system for fast and accurate global weather forecast. For this purpose, we establish a data-driven environment by downloading 43 years of hourly global weather data from the 5th generation of ECMWF reanalysis (ERA5) data and train a few deep neural networks with about 256 million parameters in total. The spatial resolution of forecast is 0.25^circtimes0.25^circ, comparable to the ECMWF Integrated Forecast Systems (IFS). More importantly, for the first time, an AI-based method outperforms state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction (NWP) methods in terms of accuracy (latitude-weighted RMSE and ACC) of all factors (e.g., geopotential, specific humidity, wind speed, temperature, etc.) and in all time ranges (from one hour to one week). There are two key strategies to improve the prediction accuracy: (i) designing a 3D Earth Specific Transformer (3DEST) architecture that formulates the height (pressure level) information into cubic data, and (ii) applying a hierarchical temporal aggregation algorithm to alleviate cumulative forecast errors. In deterministic forecast, Pangu-Weather shows great advantages for short to medium-range forecast (i.e., forecast time ranges from one hour to one week). Pangu-Weather supports a wide range of downstream forecast scenarios, including extreme weather forecast (e.g., tropical cyclone tracking) and large-member ensemble forecast in real-time. Pangu-Weather not only ends the debate on whether AI-based methods can surpass conventional NWP methods, but also reveals novel directions for improving deep learning weather forecast systems.

  • 6 authors
·
Nov 3, 2022

The rise of data-driven weather forecasting

Data-driven modeling based on machine learning (ML) is showing enormous potential for weather forecasting. Rapid progress has been made with impressive results for some applications. The uptake of ML methods could be a game-changer for the incremental progress in traditional numerical weather prediction (NWP) known as the 'quiet revolution' of weather forecasting. The computational cost of running a forecast with standard NWP systems greatly hinders the improvements that can be made from increasing model resolution and ensemble sizes. An emerging new generation of ML models, developed using high-quality reanalysis datasets like ERA5 for training, allow forecasts that require much lower computational costs and that are highly-competitive in terms of accuracy. Here, we compare for the first time ML-generated forecasts with standard NWP-based forecasts in an operational-like context, initialized from the same initial conditions. Focusing on deterministic forecasts, we apply common forecast verification tools to assess to what extent a data-driven forecast produced with one of the recently developed ML models (PanguWeather) matches the quality and attributes of a forecast from one of the leading global NWP systems (the ECMWF IFS). The results are very promising, with comparable skill for both global metrics and extreme events, when verified against both the operational analysis and synoptic observations. Increasing forecast smoothness and bias drift with forecast lead time are identified as current drawbacks of ML-based forecasts. A new NWP paradigm is emerging relying on inference from ML models and state-of-the-art analysis and reanalysis datasets for forecast initialization and model training.

  • 17 authors
·
Jul 19, 2023

Feature Re-Embedding: Towards Foundation Model-Level Performance in Computational Pathology

Multiple instance learning (MIL) is the most widely used framework in computational pathology, encompassing sub-typing, diagnosis, prognosis, and more. However, the existing MIL paradigm typically requires an offline instance feature extractor, such as a pre-trained ResNet or a foundation model. This approach lacks the capability for feature fine-tuning within the specific downstream tasks, limiting its adaptability and performance. To address this issue, we propose a Re-embedded Regional Transformer (R^2T) for re-embedding the instance features online, which captures fine-grained local features and establishes connections across different regions. Unlike existing works that focus on pre-training powerful feature extractor or designing sophisticated instance aggregator, R^2T is tailored to re-embed instance features online. It serves as a portable module that can seamlessly integrate into mainstream MIL models. Extensive experimental results on common computational pathology tasks validate that: 1) feature re-embedding improves the performance of MIL models based on ResNet-50 features to the level of foundation model features, and further enhances the performance of foundation model features; 2) the R^2T can introduce more significant performance improvements to various MIL models; 3) R^2T-MIL, as an R^2T-enhanced AB-MIL, outperforms other latest methods by a large margin.The code is available at: https://github.com/DearCaat/RRT-MIL.

  • 6 authors
·
Feb 27, 2024

ERAGent: Enhancing Retrieval-Augmented Language Models with Improved Accuracy, Efficiency, and Personalization

Retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) for language models significantly improves language understanding systems. The basic retrieval-then-read pipeline of response generation has evolved into a more extended process due to the integration of various components, sometimes even forming loop structures. Despite its advancements in improving response accuracy, challenges like poor retrieval quality for complex questions that require the search of multifaceted semantic information, inefficiencies in knowledge re-retrieval during long-term serving, and lack of personalized responses persist. Motivated by transcending these limitations, we introduce ERAGent, a cutting-edge framework that embodies an advancement in the RAG area. Our contribution is the introduction of the synergistically operated module: Enhanced Question Rewriter and Knowledge Filter, for better retrieval quality. Retrieval Trigger is incorporated to curtail extraneous external knowledge retrieval without sacrificing response quality. ERAGent also personalizes responses by incorporating a learned user profile. The efficiency and personalization characteristics of ERAGent are supported by the Experiential Learner module which makes the AI assistant being capable of expanding its knowledge and modeling user profile incrementally. Rigorous evaluations across six datasets and three question-answering tasks prove ERAGent's superior accuracy, efficiency, and personalization, emphasizing its potential to advance the RAG field and its applicability in practical systems.

  • 6 authors
·
May 6, 2024

ERank: Fusing Supervised Fine-Tuning and Reinforcement Learning for Effective and Efficient Text Reranking

Text reranking models are a crucial component in modern systems like Retrieval-Augmented Generation, tasked with selecting the most relevant documents prior to generation. However, current Large Language Models (LLMs) powered rerankers often face a fundamental trade-off. On one hand, Supervised Fine-Tuning based pointwise methods that frame relevance as a binary classification task lack the necessary scoring discrimination, particularly for those built on reasoning LLMs. On the other hand, approaches designed for complex reasoning often employ powerful yet inefficient listwise formulations, rendering them impractical for low latency applications. To resolve this dilemma, we introduce ERank, a highly effective and efficient pointwise reranker built from a reasoning LLM that excels across diverse relevance scenarios. We propose a novel two-stage training pipeline that begins with Supervised Fine-Tuning (SFT). In this stage, we move beyond binary labels and train the model generatively to output fine grained integer scores, which significantly enhances relevance discrimination. The model is then further refined using Reinforcement Learning (RL) with a novel, listwise derived reward. This technique instills global ranking awareness into the efficient pointwise architecture. We evaluate the ERank reranker on the BRIGHT, FollowIR, TREC DL, and BEIR benchmarks, demonstrating superior effectiveness and robustness compared to existing approaches. On the reasoning-intensive BRIGHT benchmark, our ERank-4B achieves an nDCG@10 of 38.7, while a larger 32B variant reaches a state of the art nDCG@10 of 40.2.

  • 6 authors
·
Aug 30

Agentic Context Engineering: Evolving Contexts for Self-Improving Language Models

Large language model (LLM) applications such as agents and domain-specific reasoning increasingly rely on context adaptation -- modifying inputs with instructions, strategies, or evidence, rather than weight updates. Prior approaches improve usability but often suffer from brevity bias, which drops domain insights for concise summaries, and from context collapse, where iterative rewriting erodes details over time. Building on the adaptive memory introduced by Dynamic Cheatsheet, we introduce ACE (Agentic Context Engineering), a framework that treats contexts as evolving playbooks that accumulate, refine, and organize strategies through a modular process of generation, reflection, and curation. ACE prevents collapse with structured, incremental updates that preserve detailed knowledge and scale with long-context models. Across agent and domain-specific benchmarks, ACE optimizes contexts both offline (e.g., system prompts) and online (e.g., agent memory), consistently outperforming strong baselines: +10.6% on agents and +8.6% on finance, while significantly reducing adaptation latency and rollout cost. Notably, ACE could adapt effectively without labeled supervision and instead by leveraging natural execution feedback. On the AppWorld leaderboard, ACE matches the top-ranked production-level agent on the overall average and surpasses it on the harder test-challenge split, despite using a smaller open-source model. These results show that comprehensive, evolving contexts enable scalable, efficient, and self-improving LLM systems with low overhead.

Interpret the Internal States of Recommendation Model with Sparse Autoencoder

Explainable recommendation systems are important to enhance transparency, accuracy, and fairness. Beyond result-level explanations, model-level interpretations can provide valuable insights that allow developers to optimize system designs and implement targeted improvements. However, most current approaches depend on specialized model designs, which often lack generalization capabilities. Given the various kinds of recommendation models, existing methods have limited ability to effectively interpret them. To address this issue, we propose RecSAE, an automatic, generalizable probing method for interpreting the internal states of Recommendation models with Sparse AutoEncoder. RecSAE serves as a plug-in module that does not affect original models during interpretations, while also enabling predictable modifications to their behaviors based on interpretation results. Firstly, we train an autoencoder with sparsity constraints to reconstruct internal activations of recommendation models, making the RecSAE latents more interpretable and monosemantic than the original neuron activations. Secondly, we automated the construction of concept dictionaries based on the relationship between latent activations and input item sequences. Thirdly, RecSAE validates these interpretations by predicting latent activations on new item sequences using the concept dictionary and deriving interpretation confidence scores from precision and recall. We demonstrate RecSAE's effectiveness on two datasets, identifying hundreds of highly interpretable concepts from pure ID-based models. Latent ablation studies further confirm that manipulating latent concepts produces corresponding changes in model output behavior, underscoring RecSAE's utility for both understanding and targeted tuning recommendation models. Code and data are publicly available at https://github.com/Alice1998/RecSAE.

  • 4 authors
·
Nov 9, 2024