id
stringlengths 5
7
| title
stringlengths 1
301
| text
stringlengths 1
41.8k
⌀ | created_utc
float64 1.21B
1.75B
| created_datetime
stringdate 2008-04-17 15:45:49
2025-07-03 20:13:46
| author
stringlengths 3
20
| score
int64 0
139k
| num_comments
int64 0
66.2k
| upvote_ratio
float64 0
1
| flair
stringclasses 894
values | permalink
stringlengths 27
93
| url
stringlengths 17
473
| subreddit
stringclasses 22
values | company
stringclasses 505
values |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1lidh6b
|
$KO, $PEP and the new Texas health labels
|
Today I saw that Texas are making companies like $KO and $PEP put health warnings on their beverage and sweets, as well as Mars' M&Ms (which is rather irrelevant, since Mars is private).
Basically, they've been given until 2027 to remove 40 substances - including bleached flour and artificial dyes.
What hit me was that High Fructose Corn Syrup did not make the warnings list. This wasn't because it was healthy - HCFS was formerly banned by the EU and UK but came off the list in 2017 (probs because of healthy lobbying by Big Sugar (21.3m euros at the last count, not because the EU 'finally saw the light).
But what also hit me is the warnings in Texas WILL be followed by the same in 49 other states (in my view), because states don't want to be seen as encouraging people to eat like s\*\*t, and they are worried about RFKJ and his mad campaign to make everyone better again.
So then what about the shares in $KO and $PEP? With this stuff AS WELL as worries in the Middle East, it is a definitely worrying trend for me. Or am I simply worrying for worry's sake, bearing in mind the stock's still up 10% YTD and people will always go to their crappy products for comfort food in times like this.
| 1,750,675,833
|
2025-06-23 10:50:33
|
Nearby_Valuable_5467
| 10
| 7
| 0.78
| null |
/r/stocks/comments/1lidh6b/ko_pep_and_the_new_texas_health_labels/
|
https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1lidh6b/ko_pep_and_the_new_texas_health_labels/
|
stocks
|
3m
|
1jkjhwe
|
Basic Stock Analysis Guide for Beginners
|
**Yo! Made this for some buddies and thought i'd share. if you have more suggestions feel free to comment them!**
**This document is meant for someone who wants to be able to pick their own stocks but gets intimidated by the financial statements. Of course, there is always the possibility to analyze a company deeper, but this should be used to help the user skim through a company’s financials to see if the stock is worth looking into further.**
I usually start by going through the stocks that are within 15% of their 52wk high. Help’s you find companies that already have momentum going for them, and if it is a microcap, it could just be the beginning. Once I pick the stock, I take a peek at the state of their chart, if it isn’t abysmal, I would then move on to a brief run through of their financials.
**Basic Analysis & Key financial terms and ratios to understand:**
**1st: Income Statement**
When I’m evaluating a stock, the first thing I look at is **revenue growth**. This is an easy way to see if the company is actually expanding. If revenue growth is strong, like over 20% quarter-over-quarter, it’s a sign the company could be gaining momentum. Even better if the growth % is growing too, for example, 15% -> 25% -> 40%, this means the company is scaling and doing so efficiently.
After revenue, I look at the **gross margin**, which tells me how efficiently the company produces its goods or services. Gross margin is calculated as:
(Revenue - Cost of Goods Sold (COGS) / Revenue) x 100
It essentially shows how much money is left from each dollar of revenue after covering the direct costs of production. Gross margin is useful when comparing to competitors and also just understanding if their manufacturing costs etc, are getting cheaper over time. If it is increasing then that is a green flag.
From there, I check **operating expenses**, which include costs like R&D, marketing, salaries, and administrative expenses. These costs are not tied directly to production but are basically the cost of running the business. I want to see if operating expenses are increasing at a *slower* rate than revenue, as this would mean the company is scaling efficiently. On the flip side, if expenses are rising faster than revenue, it could hint at inefficiencies or poor cost management.
Next, I take a quick look at the **interest expense.** This is the amount the company is paying to service its debt. While I’ll do a deeper dive into debt when I analyze the balance sheet, it’s helpful to glance at this number here to see if debt costs are eating into profitability. It is also useful to judge in comparison to the cash number, you can take the company’s cash and divide it by the periods interest expense to see how many periods (quarters or years, depending on the financials) the company could cover its interest payments with the cash it currently has.
Finally, I look at **EBITDA**, which stands for Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization. This metric strips out certain non-operational or non-cash expenses (shit that’s listed as an expense on the financials but don’t actually reduce the company’s cash position) to give a clearer picture of the company’s operating performance. Here’s why it’s important:
Interest: Excluded because financing costs vary depending on how the company is funded.
Taxes: Excluded because tax rates can differ significantly between regions or periods.
Depreciation and Amortization: These are non-cash expenses (accounting for the wear and tear
of assets), so they don’t affect actual cash flow.
Basically, by focusing on EBITDA, you can see how profitable the company’s core operations are, without being distracted by financing or accounting decisions. And once again here I’d be looking if it is growing and how quickly.
**2nd: Balance Sheet**
After the income statement, I move on to the balance sheet. This is where I check how tight the company is running and whether they have enough financial stability to support their operations.
The first thing I look at is their **cash** position. I want to know how much cash they have on hand.
Then, I look at **liquidity**, which tells me if the company can handle its short-term obligations. To figure this out, I check the current ratio. This is calculated by dividing current assets (things like cash, receivables, and inventory) by current liabilities (like short-term debt and accounts payable). The balance sheet will have a line for both Current Assets and Current Liabilities, I basically just eye ball them and check if they are at least even. If the ratio is above 1, it means they have enough assets to cover their liabilities. Ideally, I like to see something closer to 1.5 or higher for a bit of a cushion. If the ratio is too low, it could mean they might struggle to meet their debt obligations.
Next, I look at their **debt** levels. It’s not just about how much debt they have but whether it’s increasing or decreasing. A company taking on a lot of debt without growing revenue or profitability to match could be a red flag. I also keep an eye on their ability to manage the debt. This is an important thing to check because debt can be deceiving as it could look like high growth on the surface except that growth is fueled by borrowed money, which isn’t sustainable if the company can’t generate enough cash flow to pay it back. If revenue or profitability doesn’t keep pace with the growing debt, it can quickly become a problem, especially if interest payments start eating into their earnings. As mentioned, I either wanna see the debt decreasing, or at least growing slower then revenue.
Finally, I check **shares outstanding**. This shows me if the company has been issuing a lot of new shares. If the number of shares outstanding is growing rapidly, it can dilute existing shareholders, which isn’t great. It’s a sign they might be relying too much on raising money from investors instead of generating cash through their business. For me, stable or slowly growing shares are much better.
**3rd: Cash Flow Statement**
The cash flow statement is something I’ll dig into more if I’m doing a deeper analysis, but when I’m just skimming, there are two key things I’ll check: capital expenditures and free cash flow.
**Capital expenditures** (CapEx) are what the company is spending on big investments, like equipment, property, or technology. These are necessary for growth, but if they’re spending too much on CapEx without the cash flow to back it up, it could become an issue. It’s something I’ll glance at just to get a sense of how much they’re reinvesting into the business.
The other thing I’ll look at is **free cash flow** (FCF). This is basically the cash a company has left over after paying for operating expenses and capital expenditures.
Free cash flow is important because it shows how much actual cash the company is generating that can be used for things like paying down debt, returning money to shareholders, or funding growth. If free cash flow is growing consistently, that’s a great sign the business is healthy and has flexibility. On the flip side, if it’s negative or shrinking, it might mean they’re burning through cash faster than they’re making it.
**Burn Rate**
The burn rate is an important metric for companies that aren’t yet profitable, especially junior mining companies. It shows how much cash a company is spending each month to keep its operations running. To calculate it, you take the company’s total cash and divide it by their average monthly operating expenses.
Here’s how you can quickly estimate it:
Take the operating expenses from the last two quarters (you can find this on the income statement).
Add those together and divide by six to get an average monthly expense.
For example, if a junior mining company has $5 million in cash and its operating expenses for the last two quarters add up to $3 million, the average monthly expense would be:
3M / 6 = 500k
5M cash / 500k = 10 months
This means the company can operate for 10 months before running out of cash.
If the burn rate is low (e.g., under 6 months), it’s worth checking whether the company has plans to raise more capital soon.
**Past example**
TSSI, first started talking about it at $1.46. It is now $17+. Here is what I had for company highlights when I first posted about it:
*“Company Highlights*
*Revenue grew 142% from $6.6M in Q1 2023 to $15.9M in Q1 2024, driven by procurement services growth.*
*Turned a Q1 2023 operating loss of $665K into a $253K profit in Q1 2024.*
*Positioned to capitalize on rising demand for AI computing solutions, increasing production capacity.*
*Adjusted EBITDA rose by 209%, from a $436K loss to a $475K gain. Gross profit increased by 61%, highlighting improved financial health.”*
* So, first, clear strong growth in revenue and Ebitda.
* “ *Turned a Q1 2023 operating loss of $665K into a $253K profit in Q1 2024.”* I love investing in company’s that just became profitable, especially a scalable tech company like this one.
* TSSI provides data center services, so this was basically playing the Ai hype in the safest way. Instead of directly investing in high-risk Ai companies that are probably far from profitability and have a 1% of sticking around in the long term, why not invest in the infrastructure that will be powering the Ai revolution.
Basically saw a company that was growing a shit ton, was a part of a strong narrative, and just turned profitable. Sometimes it is just as easy as that.
Btw, I am aware could likely be much better or more in-depth but it is meant for beginners who just want to be able to somewhat understand what to look for when looking at fins.
| 1,743,015,252
|
2025-03-26 18:54:12
|
LadsoStocks
| 66
| 3
| 0.93
|
Advice
|
/r/stocks/comments/1jkjhwe/basic_stock_analysis_guide_for_beginners/
|
https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1jkjhwe/basic_stock_analysis_guide_for_beginners/
|
stocks
|
3m
|
1jiqe9p
|
These are the stocks on my watchlist (03/24) - Minor Market Bounce due to (some) held back tariffs
|
This is a daily watchlist for short-term trading: I might trade all/none of the stocks listed, and even stocks not listed! I am targeting potentially good candidates for short-term trading; I have no opinion on them as investments. The potential of the stock moving today is what makes it interesting, everything else is secondary.
News: [US Treasuries Fall on Signs That Trump Will Dilute April Tariffs](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-24/us-treasuries-fall-on-signs-that-trump-will-dilute-april-tariffs)
This has resulted in a market bounce and overall means that markets will likely NOT be as impacted by tariffs as they were expecting.
The tariff game Trump is playing reminds me of that scene from the office: "You have no idea the physical toll three vasectomies have on a person! Snip Snap! Snip Snap! Snip Snap!" -Michael Scott.
Anyway back to the watchlist.
[**TSLA (Tesla)**](https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=TSLA&p=d)\- Seen a significant bounce in TSLA due to the news of the lessened (supposedly) future tariffs—interested in seeing if we can break above $260 at open; otherwise, not interested and likely still will be negatively biased. This might actually be reacting a little positively due to BYD's blowout earnings. BYD reported $107B annual revenue for the year and are close to TSLA's profit! Mainly concerned in the long run about margin compression due to pricing cuts, increased competition in the EV space, macro headwinds, and of course, Elon making fork sculptures in the White House but no one appreciating them.
[**MSTR (MicroStrategy)**](https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=MSTR&p=d)\- MicroStrategy buys 6,911 more of the underlying, now holds over 506k, currently at 2x premium. Nothing too interesting to note beyond the typical upwards move from whenever MSTR announces a buy of the underlying. We've bounced slightly off the lows, but worth noting that the underlying is also rose from news that Trump might use his gold holdings to buy more. I always keep in mind MSTR's heavy dependence on underlying performance, regulatory scrutiny, and volatility, of course. Related tickers to watch on this are RIOT and COIN/HOOD.
[**LUNR (Intuitive Machines)**](https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=LUNR&p=d)\- Reported strong Q4 and FY24 results. Q4 revenue of $54.7M (+80% YoY) and FY24 revenue of $228.0M (nearly 3x YoY).
Backlog reached $328.3M (+22% YoY), with **projected positive run-rate Adj. EBITDA by year-end**. Overall backlog seemed to be the second most important factor, signifies that there is future revenue and they are far more financially stable than anticipated and even profitable by year end! I have a very small position long. Going to bail if we break below $7 but overall I think there are many tailwinds that can help LUNR. **L**UNR's main risks are execution risk tied to lunar missions (beginning of this month saw the stock fall close to 50% in a single day), contract delays, reliance on government funding, and high R&D intensity with limited margin buffer/no defined return. Also watching RKLB on this.
[**AZEK (The AZEK Company)**](https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=AZEK&p=d)\- James Hardie to acquire AZEK in a cash/stock deal valued at $8.75B (including debt). AZEK holders to receive $26.45 cash + 1.034 JHX shares, totaling \~$53/share (as of premarket prices)**.** These hybrid stock/cash acquisitions can fluctuate in price because of how the acquirer pays with their own stock. Typical M&A risks apply such as integration risk, housing market softness, FX exposure (James Hardie also trades in Australia IIRC), regulatory risk, etc.
**Earnings:** [**OKLO**](https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=OKLO&p=d)
| 1,742,822,143
|
2025-03-24 13:15:43
|
WinningWatchlist
| 36
| 14
| 0.73
| null |
/r/stocks/comments/1jiqe9p/these_are_the_stocks_on_my_watchlist_0324_minor/
|
https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1jiqe9p/these_are_the_stocks_on_my_watchlist_0324_minor/
|
stocks
|
3m
|
1jb3ph1
|
These are the stocks on my watchlist (03/14) - Market Recovery Hopes
|
This is a daily watchlist for short-term trading: I might trade all/none of the stocks listed, and even stocks not listed!
I am targeting potentially good candidates for short-term trading; I have no opinion on them as investments.
The potential of the stock moving today is what makes it interesting, everything else is secondary.
We'll see if we can hold the recovery today.
News: [Gold Breaks Through 3 000 As Trump Turbocharges Record Rally](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-14/gold-breaks-through-3-000-as-trump-turbocharges-record-rally)
[**GLD (SPDR Gold)**](https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=GLD&p=d)**,** [**VXX (VIX Futures ETN)**](https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=VXX&p=d)**,** [**NUGT (Gold Miners Bull 2X)**](https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=NUGT&p=d)
Gold prices have surged to a record high, surpassing $3,000 per ounce for the first time, driven by trade tensions/uncertainty. This is somewhat similar to my VXX/VIX play from a few days ago, essentially a short volatility trade. Again, still short VXX because I think we've peaked (for now) in terms of volatility. VXX makes bigger moves in vol trades compared to gold so I prefer it for vol shorts. The rise in gold prices shows how it still remains the hedge over the Coin, which essentially trades in-line with the market because it's still speculative. Overall trade tensions die down, Trump announces tariffs are over, the typical tariff business.
**Related Tickers:** SLV/ All other gold mining stocks
[**RBRK (Rubrik Inc)**](https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=RBRK&p=d)
Reported a narrower-than-expected fourth-quarter loss and revenue that topped expectations. Company lost -$0.18 vs -$0.39 exp. Revenue rose 47% to $258.1M vs $233.1M expected. Overall a hell of a bounce (and earnings for the stock), not too interested in going long after the earnings announcement but if we spike up I'm interested in fading the move. Cloud data/data security earnings, this company typically moves on revenue outlook (especially because it's still in its early stages).
[**PTON (Peloton Interactive)**](https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=PTON&p=d)
Canaccord Genuity upgraded Peloton to a 'Buy' rating with a price target of $10, stating, "Peloton is the clear leader in the connected fitness industry, which it invested in early on and built a 6M loyal member base that has a high-margin recurring revenue stream... Peloton is at the turning point in its journey where there is meaningful upside potential from current levels." I think this catalyst is dumb and I usually don't think about price target calls (like with Reddit earlier this week) but this HAS moved the stock. Overall interested to see if we make an additional upmove after the open. The connected fitness industry is undergoing a transformation, with companies focusing on subscription-based models to drive recurring revenue. Overall the catalyst might end up falling flat completely, as some PT calls do.
[**DOCU (DocuSign)**](https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=DOCU&p=d)
Reported Q4 earnings of $0.86 vs $0.84. exp, revenue of $776.3M. Interested in seeing if we continue in the upmove today, otherwise not that interested. We're NEVER going to see COVID highs again (seriously, look at the 5 year chart of DOCU) and I don't like this as a long-term investment. Watching both $80 and $85 levels.
| 1,741,958,329
|
2025-03-14 13:18:49
|
WinningWatchlist
| 3
| 5
| 0.56
| null |
/r/stocks/comments/1jb3ph1/these_are_the_stocks_on_my_watchlist_0314_market/
|
https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1jb3ph1/these_are_the_stocks_on_my_watchlist_0314_market/
|
stocks
|
3m
|
1j8qi84
|
These are the stocks on my watchlist (03/11)
|
This is a daily watchlist for short-term trading: I might trade all/none of the stocks listed, and even stocks not listed! I am targeting potentially good candidates for short-term trading; I have no opinion on them as investments. The potential of the stock moving today is what makes it interesting, everything else is secondary.
We had a hell of a selloff yesterday. I see today as an attempt to recover, not too interested in going short on the market today unless we break new lows. Trying out a new layout today.
News: [ Citi Downgrades US Stocks While Wall Street Set to Pause Selloff](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-11/citi-cuts-us-stocks-raises-china-on-pause-in-us-exceptionalism-m83svz54)
[**TSLA (Tesla)**](https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=TSLA&p=d)**/**[**NVDA (NVIDIA)**](https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=NVDA&p=d)**/**[**RDDT (Reddit)**](https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=RDDT&p=d)**/**[**SPY (SPDR S&P 500 ETF)**](https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=SPY&p=d)
Saw these move mainly due to recession fears and the entire market panicking, MASSIVE move yesterday.
Yesterday, mainly traded TSLA on the overnight exchanges. It had the largest move and got down to around $212. Overall a lot of negative sentiment ranging from boycotts and Elon controversies. Not too interested in trading TSLA today again. I'm interested in NVDA if we break below 100 but again I think that we'll mainly see a small bounce today rather than breaking new lows. As for RDDT, we're 50% down from highs! Interesting swing candidate but will see how today goes. To me these are the standout stocks yesterday to trade due to recession fears. I don't really see a way out for TSLA regarding the boycotts. We've also seen a decently large move in the VIX (VXX) and we're close to above 60- I'm interested in shorting if we're above $60 but doubt we'll hit that today.
[**ASAN (Asana)**](https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=ASAN&p=d)
CEO/co-founder, Dustin Moskovitz announced retirement. The company reported Q4 revenues of $188.3M, a 10% YoY increase, and issued a revenue outlook for fiscal 2026 below expectations (resulting in the drop).
That drop was close to 25%, mainly because Dustin owns close to 54% of the company, which signals a LOT of uncertainty and lack of faith in the company. Overall outlook is decently disappointing, and I'm mainly interested in it if we break $11.50 and very interested in buying $10.
**Ticker:** [**AAL (American Airlines)**](https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=AAL&p=d)
AAL projected a higher-than-expected Q1 loss and revised its revenue outlook downward, attributing the weaker forecast to softness in the domestic leisure segment. This is probably amplified by fears of flying, mainly due to people being terrified of all the plane accidents that have happened in 2025. Recession fears also lead to people cutting their vacations/discretionary spending and saving money, so things may get worse. Overall we're seeing a slight recovery in the premarket but still watching to see how this trades. To me airlines are one of the bigger leading signals of economic uncertainty so will continue watching. Other tickers that have moved on this are DAL, UAL, LUV.
| 1,741,699,031
|
2025-03-11 13:17:11
|
WinningWatchlist
| 0
| 4
| 0.41
| null |
/r/stocks/comments/1j8qi84/these_are_the_stocks_on_my_watchlist_0311/
|
https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1j8qi84/these_are_the_stocks_on_my_watchlist_0311/
|
stocks
|
3m
|
1i7kch9
|
What stocks are potentially going to be good for dividends.
|
The stocks I own for dividends right now, I been holding on to chase (JPM) for about 4 years now and it's been good. 2nd one is 3M (MMM) I got it during the beginning of January of 2024 and it's also been good. Last one I own is Ares Capital (ARCC) I just got this one in the beginning of this year 2025 and this one is doing good too. All of these have dividends so I wanna make it as a side income. Any recommendations?
| 1,737,575,935
|
2025-01-22 19:58:55
|
YoRobby246
| 0
| 34
| 0.36
|
Rule 3: Low Effort
|
/r/stocks/comments/1i7kch9/what_stocks_are_potentially_going_to_be_good_for/
|
https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1i7kch9/what_stocks_are_potentially_going_to_be_good_for/
|
stocks
|
3m
|
1i6ij9n
|
XPEL: Analyzing Growth Potential in the Automotive Market
|
Here’s my condensed analysis of XPEL: FYI: I focus on uncovering companies with strong growth potential and sharing my insights.
**Note:** All hyperlinks will lead you to direct source material
**Disclaimer:** I **DO NOT** own shares of XPEL at the time of writing
I would love to hear from the community and have a in-depth conversation from ya'll. Thank you & enjoy!
# Macro Overview:
**Electric Vehicle Growth**
The U.S. EV market is projected to show annual growth of 10.54% from 2025-2029, resulting in a market value of $156.3 billion by 2029 [according to Statista.](https://www.statista.com/outlook/mmo/electric-vehicles/united-states) Unit sales alone are projected to reach 2.32 million units by 2029 as well. Consumers now have significantly more choices when shopping for an electric vehicle. They can choose from offerings by [Tesla](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/), [Ford](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/F/), [GM](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GM/), [Honda](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/HMC/), Hyundai, and many others.
EV's often have unique aesthetic and maintenance needs that typically have high-quality protective films and coatings. The growth in consumer adoption of EV's coincides with Xpel products, particularly on the impact in the aftermarket. EV owners value vehicle preservation. This creates a growing market share for XPEL'S products. These products also include heat-reducing window films that indirectly enhance battery performance.
**Aging Vehicles**
The average car or truck on the road in the U.S in 2024, was more than 12.6 years old, a new record according to [S&P Global](https://www.spglobal.com/mobility/en/research-analysis/fuel-for-thought-average-age-vehicles-2024.html#:~:text=Vehicles%20on%20the%20road%20are,by%20two%20months%20over%202023.). Consumers now choose to keep cars longer than they used to. This is largely because of the increases in new vehicle prices. As these older vehicles age, the demand for general maintenance and preservation are more-likely to rise.
Car price increases have climbed for four consecutive months, according to [Kelley Blue Book data](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/after-4-straight-months-price-increases-new-car-now-costs-nearly-50000). As of December 2024, the average price of a new vehicle was $49,740, the second-highest level ever recorded. Economic uncertainty and higher costs can discourage new purchases. This situation favors repairs and maintenance of existing vehicles as the fleet continues to get older before replacement.
**Technological advancements**
[Self-healing films](https://www.xpel.com/products/paint-protection-film/ultimate-plus?srsltid=AfmBOopjFd4lU0Io05gEI-r8EsK9Z7gIDE7DRjI1mI7yEhQAFqPDeofN) from XPEL and competitors [3M](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MMM/), [Eastman Performance Films](https://www.eastman.com/en/who-we-are/locations/fieldale-va-usa), and [STEK Automotive](https://www.stekautomotive.com/) were released much earlier. They have recently gained traction as consumers want paint protection film to protect their vehicles. Self-healing films use polymer capable of automatically repairing minor scratches and abrasions when exposed to heat. As vehicles on the road become increasingly older, the demand for reduced effort in maintaining a vehicle's exterior will increase. Vehicle owners will likely seek easier maintenance solutions with minimal effort that repel against water, dirt, and scratches more easily. Consumers and manufacturers are increasingly adopting self-healing films. People who want to protect their older vehicles find XPEL appealing. It is also chosen to keep luxury cars in pristine condition.
# Investment Thesis:
XPEL is a compelling investment with an attractive growth story in the automotive sector. It is supported by a strong brand presence, international expansion growth, and financial strength. With high expectations, investors should take notice in the premium valuation risks apparent. Long-term growth is certainly compelling but there are clear short-term headwinds including macroeconomic uncertainties that require careful monitoring.
* **Product Diversification:** XPEL is widely known for their paint protection films. These films contribute to 70% of total Q3 sales and grew by 2.7%. Still, products like their window film and ceramic coatings have outperformed with growth of 20.6%. [Non-automotive products](https://s204.q4cdn.com/619560229/files/doc_presentations/2024/11/Q3-2024-XPEL-Investor-Presentation.pdf) like home & office window films, antimicrobial film, and niche surface protection film also out-performed by 11.6%. Together, both segments contributed 30% to total sales. Impressive growth outperformance though has largely been a significant reason for overall revenue growth in recent quarters.
* **International Expansion:** U.S. sales are the largest contributor to total revenue, accounting for 57.2% of the total and reaching $64.6 million in Q3, reflecting year-over-year growth of 9.4%. Despite the reliance on U.S. sales, International sales continue to outperform. Canada is the second largest contributor at 12.8% of revenue with growth of 25.7% to $14.4 million. All international markets saw growth except for the third largest market which is China. China saw a significant decline of -11.6% to just $9.06 million. The decrease was primarily attributed to XPEL's distributor working through excess inventory levels. With only a weighting of 8% of total sales, the negative growth did not hurt overall sales significantly. While XPEL faced challenges in China as well as minor growth of 4.1% and 1.4% in Europe and the U.K, strong international performance lead to record revenue.
* **Strategic Partnerships:** XPEL has established multiple strategic partnerships to expand its market presence. Recent collaborations with brands like [Tesla](https://lp.xpel.com/tesla-window-film), [Kia](https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20241030688212/en/XPEL-Showcases-New-Products-and-Collaborations-at-SEMA-2024), exclusive [Rivian](https://s204.q4cdn.com/619560229/files/doc_news/XPEL-and-Rivian-Expand-Collaboration-With-New-PPF-and-Window-Film-Program-2024.pdf) supplier partnership, [BMW](https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20241030688212/en/XPEL-Showcases-New-Products-and-Collaborations-at-SEMA-2024), and [Team Penske](https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelharley/2024/07/10/xpel-partners-with-team-penske-to-protect-indycars-and-drivers/) have been formed. These collaborations, including with service providers like [Tint World](https://www.tintworld.com/news-media/news-and-press/industry-leaders-tint-world-and-xpel-announce-partnership/), have strengthened market presence. Brand visibility and revenue growth have also increased as a result. The Tesla partnership in particular is of major importance due to their dominance in the EV market. These recent collaborations integrate XPEL's wide array of products into solutions for high-profile vehicles and events. The partnerships with Tesla and Rivian are particularly significant. They expand their reach into the electric vehicle market that continues to rapidly grow in the U.S. and internationally.
# Risk Factors:
* **Reliance On Chinese Distribution:** [Potential tariff threats to China](https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-importers-rush-goods-china-trump-tariff-threat-looms-2025-01-15/) from a new administration will significantly impact XPEL if enacted. If new tariffs are applied, XPEL will be faced with increases in far materials leading to higher production costs. With the U.S market as the largest source of revenue at 57.2%, passing on further costs to consumers would likely reduce demand. Most importantly, reliance on one distributor could lead to supply chain constraints due to an over-reliance on one company. Price increases or delayed deliveries would harm relationships and hurt XPEL's brand.
* **The Culper Research Short Report:** On October 19, 2023, [Culper Research issued a short report](https://img1.wsimg.com/blobby/go/cc91fda7-4669-4d1b-81ce-a0b8d77f25ab/downloads/Culper_XPEL_10-19-2023.pdf?ver=1733419998410) sending XPEL's stock retreating -17.3% from $51.51 per share to $42.61. A notable accusation was XPEL's understated reliance on Tesla. [XPEL responded](https://ppfmag.com/short-seller-targets-xpel/?utm_source=chatgpt.com) by stating Tesla represented just 5% of 2023 revenue. Secondly, Culper believes XPEL is concealing a massive risk. Their primary supplier, "Entrotech, Inc", has formed a [joint venture with PPG Industries](https://news.ppg.com/press-releases/press-release-details/2023/PPG-launches-paint-films-solutions-for-automotive-and-industrial-customers/default.aspx) on May 23, 2023. Lastly, Culper's claim as seen below, would have massive repercussions for XPEL if they are correct.
* **Additional Culper Info:** The validity of Culper's claims on XPEL and others have been [called into question many times](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/827876/000166357721000030/ex99_1.htm) for self-benefiting public statements. What we do know for sure is the joint venture with PPG Industries is in fact truthful. The extent of which XPEL will become obsolete on the other is a highly questionable take. For some reason, Culper did not mention that XPEL stands out due to their DAP software. It is not because of the PPF raw material. Hence, XPEL would know exactly how much material and company their products were installed on. These allegations were made in 2023. XPEL has continued to show strong growth. The company has not skipped a beat.
# Conclusion
XPEL offers an attractive growth story in the automotive industry. This growth is supported by their strong market position and international expansion. The company also has a diverse product portfolio and strategic partnerships. A P/E ratio of 23.98 certainly wouldn't be viewed as cheap by any measures. Still, their P/E is significantly below their five-year average P/E of 41.6. Long-term growth remains compelling with the expectation of double-digit growth in the next two years.
Nonetheless, there are near-term headwinds. Sure, XPEL has displayed a history of growth, but near-term macroeconomic uncertainties regarding tariff concerns are worth monitoring. XPEL must consider how to react to such challenges since their distributor is based in China. For the reasons noted above, we still believe XPEL is a compelling BUY. It offers long-term sustainable growth, strategic partnerships, international expansion, and a strong balance sheet.
| 1,737,465,999
|
2025-01-21 13:26:39
|
Reasonable-Green-464
| 2
| 3
| 0.57
|
Company Discussion
|
/r/stocks/comments/1i6ij9n/xpel_analyzing_growth_potential_in_the_automotive/
|
https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1i6ij9n/xpel_analyzing_growth_potential_in_the_automotive/
|
stocks
|
3m
|
1hq5im5
|
Analysis of XPEL
|
**The Business:**
XPEL sells, distributes, and installs protective paint film (PPF) along with other protective coatings and care products aftermarket in the automotive, marine, and architectural window markets. Founded in 1997, listed on the NASDAQ since 2019, XPEL began as a software company designing vehicle patterns used to produce cut-to-fit protective film for the painted surfaces of automobiles. In 2007, they expanded in selling automotive surface and paint protection film products to complement their proprietary software. They currently boast the best self-repairing PPF on the market with their ULTIMATE product line and operates in 12 countries globally.
In their 2023 Annual Report, revenues were generated in the following segments:
* Surface and Paint Protection film sales represented approximately 58.0% of consolidated revenue
* Installation, Dealership and OEM Services were roughly 18%
* Automotive Window film made up 14.8%
* Architectural window film sales represented approximately 2.3%
* SaaS subscription accounted for >2%.
* The remaining revenues came from ceramic coatings, aftercare products, and other misc. items.
Automotive products make up the vast bulk of their revenue with PPF wraps being the major revenue generator. To that end, XPEL has a certified installer program that is coupled with their Design Access Platform (“DAP”), which is a SAAS platform and database consisting of over 80,000 vehicle applications. The benefits of using software for installation include increased installation efficiency and reduction of waste. They primarily operate by selling directly to independent installers and new car dealerships, which includes XPEL protection films, installation training, access to the DAP software, marketing support and lead generation. Approximately 63.2% of consolidated revenue was through this channel in 2023. Sales are global, with North American representing 67.7% of total sales and China representing 10.5%.
**The Industry:**
I'm focusing on the the global automotive wrap films market because of the bulk of XPEL's revenue coming from this segment. The size of this market was valued at USD 6.21 Billion in 2022, Estimates range from 11% up to 22% out to 2032, which includes both the selling of and installation of PPFs. Thermoplastic polyurethane (TPU) is the most popular material, which accounted for 82.74% of the market in 2023. Polyvinyl chloride (PVC) is another common material used in PPF. TPU boasts self-healing properties, which helps explain its dominance in the market.
**XPEL by the Numbers:**
* 23.6% CAGR on Revenue from 2021 to 2023.
* 2021 revenue growth was 63% over 2020, which skews the numbers a bit, but since 2019 revenue growth has been 18% or greater.
* EPS grew from $0.51 to $1.91 from 2019 to 2023, with the lowest YoY growth being 27%.
* Gross Margin percent has climbed into the low 40% range and has been increasing each year since 2019.
* Unlevered Free Cash Flow has climbed from $4.98m to $18.37m, 2019 to 2023.
* Long term debt, as of Q3 2024, sits under $1m. They have a Current Ratio of 4.35.
* Fiscal Year 2023 ended with ROE of 34.66%, ROA at 18.80%, and ROIC of 21.87%.
* Company boasts double digits in all three ratios since 2019.
* SG&A has grown significantly, up 4x from 2019 to Q3 2024 TTM.
* Growth in marketing strategy is management's explanation for the increase.
* They expect Q4 to be flat QoQ.
**Competitive Advantages:**
* Brand Name - Xpel has a very strong brand name in the North American PPF market. They protect their brand name through their certified installer program. Their ULTIMATE line is recognized as one of the top 2 products lines on the market; STEK being recognized as the other. XPEL's 10 year warranty shows they stand behind their product and adds another strength to the brand.
* Switching Moat (weak) - their DAP software is comprehensive. It ties in with the certified installer program. Installers complete the program, use the software, and buy the product. While not like switching from an Apple, Microsoft, or Enterprise software environment, it still represents some protection.
* Patents, Trademarks, and Copyrights - while manufacturing is done third party, XPEL holds patents on their products. With the best self repairing wrap on the market, they have some pricing power on a premium product.
**The Risks**
* XPEL competes with big names, such as 3M, Eastman Chemical Company, Saint-Gobain, STEK, SunTek, LLumar, and others. XPEL is not a direct manufacturer of their products and rely on 3rd Part Manufacturers. They could lose their competitive advantage if someone brings a better product to market.
* Their business in China is localized through one distributor. Alteration to or loss of that relationship would seriously impact their revenue and bottom line.
* If the incoming Administration starts a trade war with China, it could seriously impair XPEL's business. Both from a sales standpoint and raw material costs.
* Failure to stand by their products or an excess of warranty claims could damage their brand, top line revenue, or costs that would impact the bottom line.
* A decline in the automotive industry as a whole would materially impact XPEL in their aftermarket industry.
**The Thesis:**
XPEL is a leader in their market and will continue to be. They are well positioned to take advantage of industry growth with their low asset model, nearly no long-term debt, and brand awareness to grow market share through acquisition and organic growth.
**Valuation:**
This company is still young and in a growth phase, so I feel a DCF Model is not the best way to go.\^1 Instead I'm using a Discounted Future Earnings model. Earnings growth over the last 5 years has grown at a CAGR of 30%. I'm using 20% over the next 5 years to be more conservative. I used a discounted rate of 12.7% which is a WACC value pulled online. Ending PE Ratio of 25. Fair market value would be **$59.00/share**. Using a 30% MoS because I'm still researching gives us a Buy Price of **$41.30**.
Based on my current analysis, I have opened a small, starter position in the company.
^(1 - a simple DCF using TTM Free Cash Flow with a 20% growth rate that is halved at 5 years then halved again for a terminal rate at 10 years, with a 30% MoS, yields a buy price of $16.41.)
^(§ - reposting my thoughts from another sub)
| 1,735,615,338
|
2024-12-31 03:22:18
|
Yo_Biff
| 18
| 2
| 0.95
|
Company Analysis
|
/r/stocks/comments/1hq5im5/analysis_of_xpel/
|
https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1hq5im5/analysis_of_xpel/
|
stocks
|
3m
|
1hemiqk
|
Unusual machines post IPO financials, please explain how there’s value here…
|
Here is the [financial report](https://api.mziq.com/mzfilemanager/v2/d/dc42d320-9904-4869-bdff-a5da8e276025/5b5b951c-e05f-0d67-75ae-38e3fe4d21e0?origin=1) for unusual machines Q1 2024, which is all I can see available on their site which seems odd.
But to the point, can anyone after reading through these numbers and the included information possibly see how this company is valuable in that it’s stock has gone up close to 300% over the year?? To me it looks like they are swimming deeper and deeper in the red and with no real tangible reasoning to reverse that trend?
A 1.1M net loss in Q1 and only 3M cash on hand? No foreseeable increase in earning/cost ratio? Only $1000 in property and equipment assets? The bulk of their assets are “intangible or goodwill assets” at 18M…
I don’t really understand what I’m looking at here and why it does make sense if that’s the case. Please someone enlighten me!
| 1,734,243,228
|
2024-12-15 06:13:48
|
Yogurt_South
| 19
| 22
| 0.76
| null |
/r/stocks/comments/1hemiqk/unusual_machines_post_ipo_financials_please/
|
https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1hemiqk/unusual_machines_post_ipo_financials_please/
|
stocks
|
3m
|
1hb2ean
|
These are the stocks on my watchlist (12/10)
|
Hi! I am an ex-prop shop equity trader.
This is a daily watchlist for short-term trading: I might trade all/none of the stocks listed, and even stocks not listed! I only hold some/all MAG 7 stocks and market indices long-term. If you use Old Reddit, click “Show Images” at the top to expand the charts. Any positions stated aren’t recommendations, I’m following subreddit rules to disclose positions. I use IBKR TWS for my platform and charts.
I am targeting potentially good candidates for short-term trading; I have no opinion on them as investments. The potential of the stock moving today is what makes it interesting, everything else is secondary.
PLEASE ask specific questions and PLEASE don’t ask about earnings because I usually don’t take positions beforehand. Questions like “Thoughts on \_\_\_\_\_?” or “Why isn’t \_\_\_ on the watchlist?” or something answered already will be ignored unless you add detail and your opinion.
If you post a question and delete it after I answer it, I will block you- doing that hurts discussion. I am not answering questions if I’m still long or short a stock beyond what I update. Please avoid asking questions that can easily be Googled; our time is valuable.
**I have decided to stop posting my biases due to trolls.**
News: [Google Invests In Venture To Build Energy Parks For Data Centers](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-10/google-invests-in-venture-to-build-energy-parks-for-data-centers)
[**TSLA**](https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=TSLA&p=d) \- Broke the $400 level yesterday, TSLA Model Q is supposedly coming in first half of 2025.
[**NAMS**](https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=NAMS&p=d) \- Reveals Phase 3 Trial results for LDL Cholesterol reduction drug.
[**BA**](https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=BA&p=d) \- Stated it restarted 737 Max production last week.
[**AI**](https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=AI&p=d) \- EPS of -.06 vs -.13, revenue of $94.3M vs $91M expected. Stated it expects revenue growth to reaccelerate, but had mixed guidance.
[**ORCL**](https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=ORCL&p=d) \- Missed Estimates due to cloud competition and high expectations (overall mixed guidance)- EPS of 1.47 vs 1.48 expected, revenue of 14.06B vs 14.11B expected.
GOOG- Reveals new quantum chip.
Earnings: GME
| 1,733,839,277
|
2024-12-10 14:01:17
|
WinningWatchlist
| 50
| 41
| 0.72
| null |
/r/stocks/comments/1hb2ean/these_are_the_stocks_on_my_watchlist_1210/
|
https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1hb2ean/these_are_the_stocks_on_my_watchlist_1210/
|
stocks
|
3m
|
1ha0mia
|
Clover health investments (CLOV) why I’m buying in
|
I’m sure some of have seen this company mentioned before, but yea:
Clover Health Investments (CLOV) is a health tech company that focuses on Medicare Advantage plans, using its proprietary technology platform, Clover Assistant, to improve patient care and reduce healthcare costs. Its business model emphasizes equity in healthcare, chronic disease management, and early disease identification to enhance outcomes and control expenses.
Why CLOV is Gaining Attention:
1. Improved Financial Performance:
• In Q3 2024, CLOV reported a significant improvement in financial metrics:
• Adjusted EBITDA increased to $19.3M, up from $2.7M year-over-year.
• Insurance revenue rose 7% to $322.6M
• The company raised its full-year 2024 Adjusted EBITDA guidance to $55-65M, signaling confidence in profitability and growth
2. Technical Indicators:
• Recent trading patterns suggest a potential reversal from a downtrend. Articles mention a “hammer chart pattern,” which indicates that selling pressure (from “bears”) may be weakening, potentially giving way to buying momentum (from “bulls”)
3. Strategic Advancements:
• CLOV achieved a 4.0-star rating for its flagship PPO plan, improving competitiveness and allowing for higher reimbursement rates from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS)
Competitors and Similar Companies:
CLOV competes with other Medicare Advantage providers and health-tech-driven insurance companies like Humana (HUM), Alignment Healthcare (ALHC), and Oscar Health (OSCR).
• Humana, a larger player, has shown steady growth but operates at a different scale.
• Smaller competitors like Alignment Healthcare have also faced challenges similar to CLOV in maintaining profitability, with mixed stock performance in 2024.
Current Stock Performance:
CLOV has experienced significant volatility in 2024, with bears dominating earlier in the year. However, improved earnings, technical indicators, and bullish sentiment have made it a candidate for speculative recovery. It is still priced below many competitors, appealing to value-oriented investors
Conclusion:
Clover Health’s focus on leveraging technology for healthcare innovation and its financial turnaround make it a speculative buy for those willing to bet on its continued recovery and market positioning. However, its risks include cash flow concerns and competitive pressure. If you’re bullish on Medicare-focused tech-enabled insurers, CLOV could be worth considering while keeping an eye on market and regulatory developments.
| 1,733,715,014
|
2024-12-09 03:30:14
|
dremasterfanto
| 0
| 9
| 0.37
|
Company Discussion
|
/r/stocks/comments/1ha0mia/clover_health_investments_clov_why_im_buying_in/
|
https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1ha0mia/clover_health_investments_clov_why_im_buying_in/
|
stocks
|
3m
|
1gm6ue1
|
Lucid Q3 results came in above estimates. Beating estimated EPS, revenue, and YOY EBITDA.
|
* EPS Actual is $-0.28 vs $-0.31 expected
* Revenue: $200M vs $196.3M expected
* Adjusted EBITDA $-613.1M better than $-634.4M of Q3 2023
* $5.16 billion in cash (excluding the \~1.75 billion raised in the recent public share offering)
* Current funds secure its capital into 2026
* Produced 1,805 vehicles in Q3; on track for annual production of approximately 9,000 vehicles
* Delivered 2,781 vehicles in Q3; up 90.9% compared to Q3 2023
* Lucid Gravity order starts today with production on track to begin later this year
* Rawlinson believes that the total addressable market for Gravity is six times that of Lucid Air
[https://ir.lucidmotors.com/news-releases/news-release-details/lucid-announces-third-quarter-2024-financial-results](https://ir.lucidmotors.com/news-releases/news-release-details/lucid-announces-third-quarter-2024-financial-results)
| 1,731,029,095
|
2024-11-08 01:24:55
|
Progress_8
| 72
| 34
| 0.88
|
Company News
|
/r/stocks/comments/1gm6ue1/lucid_q3_results_came_in_above_estimates_beating/
|
https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1gm6ue1/lucid_q3_results_came_in_above_estimates_beating/
|
stocks
|
3m
|
1ghwatj
|
SoFi's current sentiments going into a very exciting week.
|
* This time is different; the sentiments for SoFi shifted to an all-time high with the stock price holding well (the curse is broken) after the best quarter performance in SoFi's history. Analysts' price Target Upgrades and an overall increase in Buy ratings over this past month despite a 40.46% increase in stock price in one month.
* CME FedWatch puts a 98.9% chance of a 25bp interest rate cut on Nov. 7th after the important PCE report and Job report this past week. SoFi's core lending business is poised to gain from rising demand for personal, student, and home loans with the lowering of Fed interest rates.
* There are 113K Options in the money as of Nov. 1st, yesterday equated to 11.3M shares. Which would significantly help lift the stock price for this coming week.
* The election this coming Tuesday would be significant for SoFi stockholders as the CEO stated which administration would be better for SoFi's business. Currently, there is an event contract for both candidates with different prices based on the odds (I am not going to be political and not going to post that amount but you can search it for your very own curiosity)
| 1,730,553,683
|
2024-11-02 13:21:23
|
Progress_8
| 85
| 30
| 0.92
|
Company Discussion
|
/r/stocks/comments/1ghwatj/sofis_current_sentiments_going_into_a_very/
|
https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1ghwatj/sofis_current_sentiments_going_into_a_very/
|
stocks
|
3m
|
1g86agq
|
Ripe for picking - (FDMT) 4D Molecular Therapeutics?
|
Their current pipeline focus "4D-150" is for treatment of Neovascular (Wet) Age-Related Macular Degeneration (AMD).
FDMT current market cap $443.30M
1. **Potential Market:**
- 20 million US citizens aged 40 and older have AMD, with 200,000 new cases added each year.
- 10-15% are Wet AMD, so 2-3 million affected.
- Current treatment involves Anti-VEGF shots into the eye every 4-12 weeks (lifelong treatment, no cure).
- Latest 4D-150 Phase 2 results show "83% overall reduction in annualized injections through 52 weeks" and "70% injection-free through 52 weeks".
- It's RNA-based, so shots will need to be repeated eventually.
- Current anti-VEGF treatment costs $13,875 to $24,000 per person annually.
- Conservative estimate: 4D-150 priced at $15,000 per shot (likely 2-3x higher as it's gene therapy), capturing 20% of 2 million market = 400,000 patients.
- **Potential annual revenue: $6 billion (400,000 * $15,000)**
- Global anti-VEGF market: $12.3 billion in 2022, estimated $13.7 billion by 2031.
- If 4D-150 captures 20% of that: $2.46 billion annually.
- **Potential market cap: $7.38 billion (3x revenue)** - a 1463% increase from current value (assuming successful Phase 3 and market entry). Assuming it will take 3-5 years for the drug to hit the market, we are looking at 300%-500% annual yield.
2. **Safety:** "Comparable to approved anti-VEGF agents", suggesting likely Phase 3 success and market entry.
3. **Competition:**
- Currently, no gene therapy drugs for AMD are on the market.
- 23 gene therapy studies for AMD are in various stages of clinical trials.
- Among these studies, only three companies are listed on NASDAQ:
- FDMT, ADVM, RGNX
- All at similar stages with comparable results (FDMT results slightly better (look at the "Reduction in Annualized Anti-VEGF Injections")).
4. **Finances:**
- FDMT has $541.95M cash, sufficient until 2030 (based on current FCF of -$87.17M)
- Competitors have 1.5-2 years of cash, likely facing dilution
- FDMT's market cap should be way higher when compared to those direct competitors (imo).
5. **Stock Performance Paradox:**
Despite consistently positive results, FDMT's stock has experienced a significant decline. Here's a breakdown of the situation:
- Since February 5th presentation which lead to a huge upward spike, FDMT has released two additional analyses of their 4D-150 drug:
- July 17 presentation
- September 18 presentation
- Both show even better numbers than the February results
**Potential Explanation for low stock price: Heavy Shorting**
- [This graph](https://i.imgur.com/xE0EjSx.jpeg) combines data from NASDAQ and StockAnalysis.com
- Between July 13-17 (after 2nd presentation release):
- Short interest dropped from 10.3M to 9.5M
- Spike in average daily share volume
- Interpretation: Short sellers likely closed positions after seeing good results, driving the price down
**Unexpected Consequence:**
- This triggered an investigation:
> "The investigation focuses on whether the Company issued false and/or misleading statements and/or failed to disclose information pertinent to investors. 4D Molecular Therapeutics released the interim results of its Phase 2 PRISM study on Intravitreal 4D-150 on July 17, 2024. Despite the Company billing the results as positive, the stock fell by more than 35.8% in afternoon trading on the same day."
- In my opinion, the current situation isn't related to securities fraud, but rather reflects the inherent volatility of the biotech market. However, the mere mention of 'securities fraud' has negatively impacted the company's stock profile, leading to further declines. This has been exacerbated by repeated dissemination of this news on Accesswire since July.
Consequently, short interest has increased significantly, currently **41.39%** of the float is shorted with a 7-day cover period. This level of short interest seems **CRAZY** for a promising pre-revenue biotech stock and suggests the potential for a short squ-eeze.
While the timing is uncertain, the combination of high short interest and extended cover period indicates a likelihood of future price increases.
**TLDR**: FDMT shows strong potential in AMD treatment with better financials than competitors. Current stock price seems undervalued, possibly due to shorting. High short interest suggests potential for a squee-ze raising the current price substantially.
What are your thoughts? Am I missing any crucial points?
EDIT: I haven't started a position yet, this post is like a sanity check.
| 1,729,451,091
|
2024-10-20 19:04:51
|
yodalr
| 7
| 4
| 0.65
|
Company Analysis
|
/r/stocks/comments/1g86agq/ripe_for_picking_fdmt_4d_molecular_therapeutics/
|
https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1g86agq/ripe_for_picking_fdmt_4d_molecular_therapeutics/
|
stocks
|
3m
|
1d9hx3f
|
These are the stocks on my watchlist (6/6) (for real this time)
|
Hi! I am an ex-prop trader that trades equities.
This is a daily watchlist for trading.
I might trade all of the stocks on here, or none of them, on any given day. I might trade stocks that don't appear on here! I hold no positions in any stocks long-term but Amazon/Mag7/general broad market indices. (unless otherwise noted in these tickers). If you’re on old reddit, click “show images” at the top to see all the charts quickly.
I usually make these watchlists premarket, (or from 6:30 to 7 as time permits), but can be delayed if I'm trading the open. These aren't mean to be taken as gospel or any recommendation to buy/sell.
Many stocks I post are <$500M market cap. Most are NOT good long-term investments but are good candidates to day trade. If you have questions to ask, PLEASE ask specific ones. Questions like “Thoughts on \_\_\_\_\_? will be ignored unless you add detail to the question.
**News:** [**U.S. Clears Way for Antitrust Inquiries of Nvidia, Microsoft and OpenAI**](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/05/technology/nvidia-microsoft-openai-antitrust-doj-ftc.html)
**NVAX-** Company said it would be able to deliver a regulator-recommended vaccine against a strain of COVID-19 by September.
**NVDA-** Watching the 1250 level. Might move down today on news of antitrust inquires from the Justice Dept. and FTC.
**LULU-** Company raises full-year earnings guidance, $2.54 vs $2.38 EPS. Also authorized a $1B stock buyback.
**GME-** Interested in the $33 level today. Still short calls, will likely hedge if we get up higher and break that level. Had a super interesting conversation with a trader friend that I’ll write up when I have more time.
**FIVE-** Discount retailer, cut its sales forecast for the year. $.60 vs $.63 cents expected, net sales missed $812M vs $834.3M.
**Earnings today :** DOCU, IOT,MTN
**IPO today:** LIF (Location tracker for your kids)
| 1,717,679,778
|
2024-06-06 13:16:18
|
WinningWatchlist
| 43
| 20
| 0.75
|
Company Discussion
|
/r/stocks/comments/1d9hx3f/these_are_the_stocks_on_my_watchlist_66_for_real/
|
https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1d9hx3f/these_are_the_stocks_on_my_watchlist_66_for_real/
|
stocks
|
3m
|
1cu6nfp
|
These are the stocks on my watchlist (5/17)
|
Hi! I am an ex-prop trader that trades equities.
This is a daily watchlist for trading.
I might trade all of the stocks on here, or none of them, on any given day. I might trade stocks that don't appear on here! I hold no positions in any stocks long-term but Amazon/Mag7/general broad market indices. (unless otherwise noted in these tickers). If you’re on old reddit, click “show images” at the top to see all the charts quickly.
I usually make these watchlists premarket, (or from 6:30 to 7 as time permits), but can be delayed if I'm trading the open. These aren't mean to be taken as gospel or any recommendation to buy/sell.
Many stocks I post are <$500M market cap. Most are NOT good long-term investments but are good candidates to day trade. If you have questions to ask, PLEASE ask specific ones. Questions like “Thoughts on \_\_\_\_\_? will be ignored unless you add detail to the question.
**News:** [GameStop Extends Rout on Falling Sales, Plan to Sell Shares](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-17/gamestop-amc-shares-rise-after-two-day-7-billion-wipeout)
Again, meme stocks worth watching today, but less interested overall compared to past three days.
**GME- News above. Company filing to sell up to 45M common shares at ATM offering. Stock has plummeted premarket as a result**
**RDDT- Reported earnings and guidance (-27M vs -3M, revenue of 875M vs 1B exp. OpenAI to bring Reddit content to ChatGPT. Heaven help us.**
TTWO- Reports Q4 GAAP -$17 vs 0.07e, revenue 1.4B vs 1.34B expected.
CB- Again, from two days ago, this stock is revealed as Buffett’s newest investment.
MSFT- Planning to place newest COD on subscription service.
ASTS- Partnership with AT&T.
| 1,715,956,198
|
2024-05-17 14:29:58
|
WinningWatchlist
| 0
| 14
| 0.38
| null |
/r/stocks/comments/1cu6nfp/these_are_the_stocks_on_my_watchlist_517/
|
https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1cu6nfp/these_are_the_stocks_on_my_watchlist_517/
|
stocks
|
3m
|
1co28mz
|
Solventum Reports First Quarter 2024 Financial Results and Capital Allocation Update
|
[https://investors.solventum.com/2024-05-09-Solventum-Reports-First-Quarter-2024-Financial-Results-and-Capital-Allocation-Update](https://investors.solventum.com/2024-05-09-Solventum-Reports-First-Quarter-2024-Financial-Results-and-Capital-Allocation-Update)
* Reported sales increased 0.2% to $2.016 billion, organic sales increased 0.9%
* GAAP Earnings Per Share (EPS) of $1.37; adjusted non-GAAP EPS of $2.08
* Generated $442 million in cash from operations; Non-GAAP free cash flow of $340 million
* Reaffirms full-year 2024 guidance
Full-Year 2024 Guidance (non-GAAP)
* Organic sales growth of -2% to 0%
* Adjusted EPS of $6.10 to $6.40
* Free cash flow of $700M to $800M. According to slides below, $1,200M to $1,300M excluding CAPEX. No breakdown of whether this is all growth CAPEX or maintenance CAPEX.
Capital Allocation (mentioned on [March 19th investor day)](https://d1io3yog0oux5.cloudfront.net/_807a4b4c4d02577830ace1b6b213e95d/3m/db/3194/30840/presentation/Solventum+Investor+Day+3.19.2024_vF.pdf)
* 24 months of paying down debt before any distribution (dividend or share repurchases)
* Claims that the CAPEX will result in innovation and growth even though their 2024 could be -2% growth where their addressable market grows 6% optimistically per year
* Growth strategies: Improve WAMGR (Weighted Average Market Growth Rate), evolve commercial model, increase output of new products, M&As (differentiated & clinician-preferred solutions)
Personal Takeaways
On slide 48 They claim that paying down debt improves free cash flow by reducing interest expense but free cash flow by definition excludes interest expense. Maybe they mean free cash flow to equity?
I was waiting for earnings to decide whether to keep the shares or to divest. I'm leaning towards divesting. There's too much focus on "growth" given the amount of projections they've provided. It's a mature business yet they aren't forthcoming if CAPEX is going to be that large every year or if it's this large just for the current year. If I were to assume they won't reduce CAPEX (i.e. they will fund growth), I get a low valuation. Considering that they will take 2 years to pay off debt, this is more of a stock to HOLD than a screaming buy. The spin-off was already a massive distribution in my opinion and with 3M using the spin-off as a reason to slash its own dividend, it doesn't seem like its worth owning both SOLV and MMM anymore.
Thoughts?
| 1,715,274,256
|
2024-05-09 17:04:16
|
Elibroftw
| 7
| 1
| 0.65
|
Company News
|
/r/stocks/comments/1co28mz/solventum_reports_first_quarter_2024_financial/
|
https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1co28mz/solventum_reports_first_quarter_2024_financial/
|
stocks
|
3m
|
1b5st7x
|
SMCI - My BEAR case
|
I have been hearing a lot of buzz around SMCI lately and there is a lot of chatter about it being put into the S&P at the next rebalance (snapshot date is this upcoming Friday, 08 March 2024 and implement date is the following Friday after close I believe.)
​
I am going to make my bear case for this stock by not looking at fundamentals at all and only using basic rebalance principles. Since the vast majority of Americans have their money passively flowing into these broad indices and not caring about the specific underlying stocks anyways, I think it is only fitting to remove fundamental company analysis entirely.
​
As it stands, SMCI is trading at $905.48 and has a market cap of $50.65 billion USD.
Currently, SMCI is trading in the Russell 2000 (RUT). It is the highest cap stock in the RUT by about 3x. This disparity is why I believe that joining the S&P 500 is a death sentence to the stock price, and the downwards pressure and volatility will happen extremely quickly once it is added. I will explain why.
The majority of investors nowadays invest their money passively through retirement accounts/401k's or just are told that their money is safer if you put it into ETFs. This results in a MASSIVE amount of inflow into a basket of stocks without much/any DD discerning the individual stocks in the basket. As for market cap weighted indices/ETFs, the percentage of that index is based on the market cap of the stock.
If I put $1,000 into the RUT, as it currently stands, $1.62 of that will be towards SMCI, while the next highest stock, MSTR, will receive $0.51. As SMCI increases in market cap, even more of the inflow into the RUT will get pumped passively into SMCI. This is a self-perpetuating cycle of inflow into the highest capped stock(s) in the index.
Now onto the S&P 500. I am going to compare SMCI to 3M, which has a market cap of $50.77 billion and is currently sitting in the S&P 500. 3M is weighted to 0.12% of the entire S&P, meaning it receives approximately 0.12% of the inflow. If SMCI enters into the S&P, I expect it to receive about the same, 0.12% inflow. Now looking at the daily volume of SPY (S&P ETF) vs IWM (RUT ETF), there is about 5.5x the flow of SPY vs. IWM, meaning SPY gets 5.5x more money going through it daily.
Doing some quick math off this, SMCI is currently sitting at an inflow of 1.62%(IWM) and will turn into 0.12%(SPY). Turning the units of SPY into IWM, we multiply the 0.12 by 5.5, so 0.12%(SPY)\*5.5(SPY)/(IWM) nets us 0.65%(IWM).
The ratio of inflow into SMCI immediately after it enters the S&P will be 0.65/1.62\*100 = 40% of what it is currently getting while outperforming in the RUT.
This tells me that the inflow into SMCI is going to take a 60% decline overnight as soon as it gets put into the S&P. Obviously there are other factors and the RUT is not the only ETF or fund trading SMCI right now, but the underlying argument still stands that the inflow is going to be GREATLY reduced instantaneously, likely causing a massive shock to the stock price.
This same calculation can be used on other over or underperforming stocks in their indices if they are set to jump from one index to another.
​
Feel free to argue me on this one if you disagree with me!
| 1,709,501,816
|
2024-03-03 21:36:56
|
TheUltimator5
| 27
| 33
| 0.7
|
ETFs
|
/r/stocks/comments/1b5st7x/smci_my_bear_case/
|
https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1b5st7x/smci_my_bear_case/
|
stocks
|
3m
|
1b1gven
|
Thoughts on 3M spinoff Solventum on stock price and dividend?
|
A recent announcement states the 3M will spinoff its healthcare unit Solventum on Apr 1, 2024. At this time there is no indication of how it will effect MMM stock price or dividend. What is a reasonable expectation of the impact of this divestiture on MMM price and dividend?
https://news.3m.com/2024-02-21-3M-Announces-Filing-of-Form-10-Registration-Statement-for-Planned-Spin-Off-of-Health-Care-Business-as-Solventum
| 1,709,053,252
|
2024-02-27 17:00:52
|
LunacyNow
| 9
| 14
| 0.8
|
Company Discussion
|
/r/stocks/comments/1b1gven/thoughts_on_3m_spinoff_solventum_on_stock_price/
|
https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1b1gven/thoughts_on_3m_spinoff_solventum_on_stock_price/
|
stocks
|
3m
|
1axkz6l
|
3M Spinoff Company in the works set for April 1st.
|
3M Co.’s health care spinoff, Solventum Corp., will launch April 1.
More details emerged Wednesday with a public securities filing from the Maplewood-based manufacturer about the new company made up of what is currently 3M's health care businesses. Solventum will have more than 20,000 employees. As of now, Solventum will be based at 3M's headquarters in Maplewood.
3M (NYSE: MMM) notes in the filing that separating the two companies brings benefits, such as the ability to tailor their investment decisions to drive growth, allowing management to focus on strengthening core businesses, improving operational agility and better accessing capital by creating distinct investment profiles that appeal to different investors.
LINK: https://l.smartnews.com/p-jGucE/MapD5d
| 1,708,643,747
|
2024-02-22 23:15:47
|
superbilliam
| 115
| 29
| 0.95
|
Company News
|
/r/stocks/comments/1axkz6l/3m_spinoff_company_in_the_works_set_for_april_1st/
|
https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1axkz6l/3m_spinoff_company_in_the_works_set_for_april_1st/
|
stocks
|
3m
|
18wpmid
|
Pagaya financials headed into 2024
|
I recently have had my eyes on PGY and started a small position that I will likely be increasing after Q4 earnings are released. Q3 saw record network volume of 2.1B, record revenue of 211.8M and record adjust EBIDTA of 28.3M. They also raised full year 2023 guidance on all metrics and have been partnering with some promising names ( Exeter , Sofi & a top 5 bank in the US ) Kathy woods also started acquiring Pagaya recently. I am expecting that it’s use of AI in determining credible applicants will only grow as AI infiltrates all sectors slowly but surely. Would love to hear your feedback / opinions on this company. Happy New Years to everyone !!
| 1,704,202,696
|
2024-01-02 13:38:16
|
Daleyman13
| 14
| 4
| 0.82
| null |
/r/stocks/comments/18wpmid/pagaya_financials_headed_into_2024/
|
https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/18wpmid/pagaya_financials_headed_into_2024/
|
stocks
|
3m
|
18dy44d
|
$CAVA – DECEMBER SHORT PLAY (Potential Crash and/or Death Spiral)
|
Below is my personal thesis based on my own research. And I do research… all the time… perhaps too much.
**1. OVERVIEW & CATALYST**
CAVA Group, Inc. (CAVA) owns and operates a chain of around 280 Mediterranean restaurants. The company offers salads, dips, spreads, toppings, and dressings. It sells its products through whole food markets and grocery stores. The company also provides online food ordering services. Cava Group, Inc. was founded in 2006 and is based in Washington, DC.
The company had a successful IPO in mid-June of 2023. Shares opened at $42 apiece on the NYSE, nearly double the IPO price of $22. Cava sold about 14.4 million shares in the offering, raising around $318 million.
However, the IPO Lockup Period Expiration is happening next week (12/12/2023), where a huge amount of insider shares will become available to trade on a thinly (recently averaging 1-1.3M shares/day) traded stock. Year-end tax benefits or not, no one wants to hold the bag as many early investors are likely to realize a relatively quick profit (initial pre-IPO shares were sold for $19-$20/share or cheaper).
Every time I was involved in situations where the individual/institutional investors would have to “HODL” their shares/coins, it never worked, not even once. Everything gets dumped the second it becomes possible.
As more investors try to realize their profits and there are minimal number of buyers, the stock might enter a free fall for a while. Also, other institutions would want to come in at a much lower level, so they will not interfere for a while. Eventually the stock will find its floor, but I expect it to be at much lower price point, possibly at $8-$12 range. I specifically chosen the Jan 19th puts to give this play some “breathing” room.
**2. VALUATION**
IMO, by every measure the company is currently is overvalued. With the last quarter revenue of $175.55 million and negative net income, the company’s current free float valuation stands at over $4B with a P/E ratio of over 460! CAVA is expected to have about $850M of revenue in 2024 with about 9% EBITDA margins, but only 1.5% net income margins, which at best would make it a $1B company and that is everything goes perfect by the end of next year, which again would equate to about $9/share (in the future).
As initial IPO hype has dies down, the stock (peaking at around $58/share) seems to continuously trend down (similar to Sweetgreen Inc., which started IPO at around $53/share a couple of years ago and got all the way down to $6.50/share, before recovering to a current $10.50/share). Ironically, Sweetgreen ($SG) was founded in 2007 also in Washington, DC.
The trajectory repeating Chipotle’s success stock-wise, even long-term is unlikely for multiple reasons (including Product & Competition section below).
Portfolio managers at Artal Group, T. Rowe Price, Swan Hospitality, Revolution Growth, Capital International Investors or all other major $CAVA shareholders (as well as company principals) that control tens of millions of shares in total should trip over each other to offload at least a portion of their holdings (as I am sure, like me they see the stock dwindling down to sub-$10 price range). This can create a temporary death spiral and bring the price down very quickly.
**3. PRODUCT & COMPETITION**
I have personally been a Carnivore now for several months. I am down 48lbs (and counting) and feeling much better than before. I have studied the Carnivore diet in great detail every day for the past 7 months, listened to hundreds of lectures and read thousands of testimonials. It is blatantly clear to me that I have been eating completely wrong my whole life and there’s an overwhelming amount of data to show that Carnivore (or at least Ketovore) is the way to eat. I am continuously sharing my research with my family and closest friends, but I do “meat” (couldn’t help myself) lots of resistance – it’s a process.
As the Carnivore movement gains more and more popularity, I expect a major shift from plant- based “healthy” choices to animal product outlets, restaurants and chains. Please check out thousands of video lectures and interviews on YT of Drs. Anthony Chaffee, Shawn Baker, Ken Berry and many others and see for yourself. This could be one of the most important decisions for you and your family.
That said, I source, grind, grill and season all of my meat and fish myself to ensure the hyper-optimal quality of my nutrition. However, when travelling I occasionally buy meat-based dishes at Chipotle, QDOBA, Shake Shack, McDonalds, Burger King, Chick-fil-A and other food chains and restaurants. I would strip out all the carbs and vegetables and consume just the meat/fish. While that’s not ideal, it suffices once in a while and most Carnivores would agree with me. And by once in a while, I mean once or twice per month out of 60 (or so) meals.
I’ve looked into CAVA’s menu and found nothing that any Carnivore would find appropriate for human consumption, let alone anything being “healthy”. While some dishes do contain chicken, typically birds are considered barely above eating cardboard in the Carnivore world, as they are typically kept in horrible conditions, fed absolute (often GMO) garbage (including cuts of other birds), and don’t have multiple stomachs (e.g. cows) to process their own (modified) food properly. So, technically it’s still considered meat, but it carries very marginal nutritional value. All other items include carbs (converts to sugar), sugar (feeds cancers) and vegetables (thousands of various low-grade toxins), none of which our ancestors ate in any significant quantities.
So, while other chains and restaurants are not particularly great by any stretch of imagination either, at least you can find meats and fish there (if you must eat out), while CAVA would be my least favorite choice. I’ve read many reviews and people’s reactions are mixed between the price and quality of CAVA’s food (seemingly more negative than positive). Like many other places they are fighting an uphill battle. Rebranding to a radically opposite diet would not work well either.
Furthermore, there are other chains out there with somewhat similar offerings on top of hundreds of thousands of general restaurants on every corner. Their prices are not particularly great and margins are quite thin, like with most restaurants.
**4. CONCLUSION**
I expect a bloodbath in the next few weeks. The stock already started to crack. “Don't sugar coat it, Taj” (Van Wilder, 2002) seems an appropriate quote here.
Questions and comments are welcomed.
**POSITIONS:** $CAVA 01/19/24 $30 & $35 puts, considering short $CAVA shares
**TL;DR:** Become a Carnivore and buy Jan 19 2024 $30/$35 puts on $CAVA and short $CAVA shares
| 1,702,073,464
|
2023-12-08 22:11:04
|
Veritatis-Cupitor
| 10
| 42
| 0.66
|
Company Analysis
|
/r/stocks/comments/18dy44d/cava_december_short_play_potential_crash_andor/
|
https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/18dy44d/cava_december_short_play_potential_crash_andor/
|
stocks
|
3m
|
17r9m69
|
InPost Group: Q3 EBITDA up 40% yoy, Q3 EBIT up 75% yoy. Revenue +22% yoy, net leverage down
|
[InPost S.A. (Yahoo Finance)](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/INPST.AS/?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAAFczN3JDtOH_MynmgiIfmTzmn6IrZBvgDL5GQwYMBTHltaob8N8w5_NXetijdjeM9T2-i0Hk0qOwdmYf1jELjBnZiu_CBXNMojfmXYes-Adnp66M5SBD8fdX94zl3BmBHoTaHAqOqbf6Om-J2fzNC4lv6wJ-kgVNNqW-RpMty_t)
Last year I wrote a short post about InPost: [https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/xbif69/inpost\_sa\_inpst\_analysis\_why\_i\_think\_its\_a\_great/](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/xbif69/inpost_sa_inpst_analysis_why_i_think_its_a_great/)
Since then the stock is up by over 50% and I am still buying & holding. +3% today after earnings.
[Press Release](https://inpost.eu/sites/default/files/2023-11/Q3%202023%20InPost%20Press%20Release%2009.11.2023_0.pdf)
[Detailed Q3 & 9M 2023 results](https://inpost.eu/sites/default/files/2023-11/Q3%202023%20financial%20results.pdf)
**Summary (Q3)**:
* **Parcel volume** 210m (+18% YoY)
* **Revenue** 2,067.2m PLN (+22% YoY)
* **Adjusted EBITDA** 639.4m PLN (+40% YoY)
* **Net leverage** 2.6x (down from 3.2x vs 2022 YE)
* \+13% **volume increase** in Poland, +28% international
* **UK market finally profitable** & growing very rapidly. InPost has the **#1 APM network** in UK.
* **UK revenue**: 125.2m PLN (+138% YoY), **UK adjusted EBITDA**: 11.3m PLN
* **FCF** 310.9m PLN
* **Volumes ahead of the market in all markets**
​
| 1,699,523,736
|
2023-11-09 09:55:36
|
frankjohnsen
| 5
| 3
| 0.73
|
Company News
|
/r/stocks/comments/17r9m69/inpost_group_q3_ebitda_up_40_yoy_q3_ebit_up_75/
|
https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/17r9m69/inpost_group_q3_ebitda_up_40_yoy_q3_ebit_up_75/
|
stocks
|
3m
|
17fkx76
|
Summary of Oct 24 morning earnings
|
* SPOT Spotify ⬆️ up almost 9% as it reports a quarterly profit and hits 226M subscribers
* KO Coca-Cola ⬆️ up 3% after topping estimates and raising guidance
* VZ Verizon ⬆️ up 9% after earnings & subscriber growth top estimates
* GE ⬆️ up a 7% after profit beat & 'rapid growth' in aviation business
* MMM 3M ⬆️ up almost 6% after earnings beat, raising profit forecast
| 1,698,175,348
|
2023-10-24 19:22:28
|
FaatmanSlim
| 27
| 6
| 0.88
|
Broad market news
|
/r/stocks/comments/17fkx76/summary_of_oct_24_morning_earnings/
|
https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/17fkx76/summary_of_oct_24_morning_earnings/
|
stocks
|
3m
|
16pb52s
|
What stocks do you like?
|
What stocks would you get?
I got a 25k bonus in the start of September. Right now I am maxing out my 401k and my Roth. I usually just buy Voo, Vti, little bit of Vt, Dividend stocks and etfs Like O, Vym, 3m, Ko, Vz, JnJ, Xom. I also have some Eth and 2 bitcoins lol.
So I'm curious if I should keep doing what I'm doing or also add in some individual stocks. I kind of like Nvidia, Amazon, Nucor, Ford, Delta, Sofi etc.
What would you get? What's your favorite stock? And any particular reason?
For context I am 35 and plan to hold for 20 to 40 years. I am not opposed to other investments like crypto or other stuff.
| 1,695,391,327
|
2023-09-22 14:02:07
|
Severe-Spirit4547
| 73
| 312
| 0.77
| null |
/r/stocks/comments/16pb52s/what_stocks_do_you_like/
|
https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/16pb52s/what_stocks_do_you_like/
|
stocks
|
3m
|
16odnok
|
3m value trap or perfect buy in
|
So timing the market is impossible but I was going through one of my old watch lists from years ago and saw 3m.
Couple of things they owe lots of expensive debt and money, 3m as a company isn’t going anywhere but the question is will it recover to the $200 price range in the next decade. Very much reminds of me of intel, cisco and ibm, Texas Instruments.
Right now it gives 1.50 dividend per quarter which is pretty high for the type of stock it is, expecting a cut.
Couple of other things 9B in debt at 2027, there also the chemical law suit 10b and the ear plugs one 6b so potentially will the stock drop lower to the 50 range.
The company is an industry gaint, I have a feeling the activist investors might take interest soon, similar to crm which back fired my short position.
| 1,695,296,588
|
2023-09-21 11:43:08
|
Ragepower529
| 46
| 38
| 0.87
|
Company Discussion
|
/r/stocks/comments/16odnok/3m_value_trap_or_perfect_buy_in/
|
https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/16odnok/3m_value_trap_or_perfect_buy_in/
|
stocks
|
3m
|
15oob56
|
Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning August 14th, 2023
|
Good Friday evening to all of you here on r/stocks! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and are ready for the new trading week ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning August 14th, 2023.
# **Nasdaq Composite slips Friday, falls two weeks straight for the first time in 2023: Live updates - [(Source)](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/08/10/stock-market-today-live-updates.html)**
*****
> The Nasdaq Composite ended Friday lower and notched its second consecutive losing week in 2023 as semiconductor stocks languished.
*****
> The tech-heavy Nasdaq slid about 0.6% to end at 13,644.85, pulled down by a selloff in semiconductor stocks such as Advanced Micro Devices, Nvidia and Micron. The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) ended the week down 5.2%, its worst week since October 2022.
*****
> The S&P 500 inched lower by 0.1%, ending at 4,464.05. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 105.25 points, or 0.3%, closing at 35,281.40. The 30-stock index was helped by advances of 2.1% and 1.8% in Chevron and Merck & Co., respectively.
*****
> The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq declined about 0.3% and 1.9%, respectively, on the week. Both registered their second straight losing week — a first of that length for the technology-heavy Nasdaq since the conclusion of a four-week losing streak in December 2022.
*****
> The Dow is an outlier of the three major averages, advancing 0.6% this week.
*****
> Investors had much to celebrate earlier in the week.
*****
> July’s consumer price index, a major inflation reading for markets and the Federal Reserve, came in softer than anticipated on a year-over-year basis. Prices climbed 3.2% on an annual basis, less than the Dow Jones consensus estimate of 3.3%.
*****
> To be sure, the CPI reading showed some signs of stickiness. So-called core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, rose 4.7% from the prior year.
*****
> Elsewhere, Disney rallied on the back of its earnings report released Wednesday. Despite a pullback in Friday’s session, shares were 3.2% higher on the week. That marks the biggest weekly gain for the entertainment giant since March.
*****
> But inflation data released Friday complicated the picture. July’s producer price index, which tracks the price wholesalers pay for raw goods, rose 0.3% from the previous month. Economists polled by Dow Jones expected a 0.2% increase month over month.
*****
> This week’s moves are the latest in what’s been a rocky patch for the stock market after a strong performance in the first half of the year. The three major indexes are all lower than where they began August.
*****
> “Investors continue to try to hang their hat on more consistency” within economic data, said Greg Bassuk, CEO of AXS Investments. “What we’re seeing with these mixed results certainly increases the likelihood of more volatility ahead.”
*****
# **This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:**
###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!](https://i.imgur.com/39gIPDG.png))**
# **S&P Sectors for this past week:**
###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!](https://i.imgur.com/v6oPKc4.png))**
# **Major Indices for this past week:**
###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!](https://i.imgur.com/Lnhh3ON.png))**
# **Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:**
###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!](https://i.imgur.com/aKSZenr.png))**
# **Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:**
###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!](https://i.imgur.com/0EXkZVf.png))**
# **Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:**
###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://i.imgur.com/WIFRBit.png))**
# **S&P Sectors for the Past Week:**
###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://i.imgur.com/qM1ECGT.png))**
# **Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:**
###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://i.imgur.com/aAI9kHn.png)**
# **Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:**
###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://i.imgur.com/TaaFi7f.png))**
# **Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:**
###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://i.imgur.com/TOK8mjS.png))**
# **Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:**
###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://i.imgur.com/hJqQHKA.png))**
# **Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:**
###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://i.imgur.com/f7AWP21.png))**
*****
> # Looking for a Mid-August Bounce After Weak Start
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://64.media.tumblr.com/458b256926b027a6198d940e5576926d/7778c651dc41d06a-fb/s500x750/a5d8bb981b690e42143e64d57d6152168295aac5.jpg))**
> Despite modest gains yesterday by DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ, all the major indexes we track were down over the first eight trading days of August. As of yesterday’s close, August 10, NASDAQ was the weakest, off 4.24% this month. Russell 2000 was the second weakest, down 4.02%. S&P 500 slipped 2.62% while DJIA was down 1.08%. Compared to past pre-election year August performance since 1950, this August has tracked closely. Should the market continue to track the historical pre-election year August pattern, a mid-month bounce could begin soon. This historical mid-month move is shaded in yellow in the following chart.
*****
> # Why $1 Trillion in Credit Card Debt Isn’t a Bad Thing
> “It’s not what you look at that matters, it’s what you see.” -Henry David Thoreau
> It finally happened, US consumers officially have more than $1 trillion in credit card debt, an all-time record. Not surprisingly, many claimed this was a sign the consumer was tapped out and simply spending and buying everything on credit cards. We don’t think it is that simple, in fact, we’d take the other side that this isn’t a major warning sign and the consumer is still quite healthy and not up to their eyeballs in debt.
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://www.carsongroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/blog-1-1-800x529.png))**
> Every quarter the New York Fed releases their Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit, and this is the report that just showed record credit card debt. Here’s a great chart that showed overall debt reached $17.06 trillion. Peeling back the onion showed that mortgage debt stood still at $12.01 trillion as of the end of June, making up a huge part of overall debt. Credit cards were up $45 billion to $1.03 trillion, meanwhile, car loans were at $1.58 trillion and student loans checked in at $1.57 billion.
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://www.carsongroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/blog-2-1-800x580.png))**
> What stands out to me the most about the chart above is overall debt was virtually flat the past two quarters, from $17.05 to $17.06 trillion. Tells a much different picture than what the media makes it sound like with all the ‘soaring debt’, huh?
> I really like the chart below from the NY Fed’s report that zooms in on the relative size of each part of debt. If you look at credit card debt specifically, it has consistently stayed in the same range over the long-term. So, credit card debt might be at a nominal record, but by no means are we seeing consumers go nuts buying everything on credit anymore than they ever have in history.
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://www.carsongroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/blog-3-1.png))**
> Another way to think about this is wouldn’t people likely have more credit card debt if they were worth more? I call this ‘denominator blindness’. All we hear about is the numerator at a new high, but in a lot of cases, the denominator has been soaring as well. Go read the quote at the top from Thoreau again. I love that one, as there are different ways to look at things and to me, seeing the denominator is very important.
> Here’s a good way to show this, overall net worth has increased significantly over time, from $44 trillion in 2000 to close to $150 trillion today. Maybe more credit debt shouldn’t be a surprise?
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://www.carsongroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/blog-4-1.png))**
> Taking that same denominator blindness approach and looking at the percentage change of credit card debts and net wealth showed a much better backdrop. Since 2000, credit card debt has gained 106%, but net worth was up close to 250%. I will say it again, maybe more credit debt shouldn’t be such a surprise?
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://www.carsongroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/blog-5-800x545.png))**
> Yes, rates are higher and there’s a lot of debt, so one logical question is: can consumers pay for all this debt? Here’s a great chart showing household debt service payments as a percentage of disposable income was down to 9.6% in the first quarter, well below the pre-pandemic average of 11.2%. In simple English, there might be a lot of debt, but people are making more money so it isn’t such a stretch to service all the debt. The second quarter data isn’t out yet, but given disposable income has increased and debt likely stayed flat, this will probably fall again soon.
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://www.carsongroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/blog-6.png))**
> Here’s yet another way to show things aren’t as bad out there as it sounds. Credit card debt as a percentage of disposable income is 21%, still below the 22% from the end of 2019 and well beneath the 2003-2019 average of 26%. In other words, people have been making more than they have been adding to their credit cards the past few years.
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://www.carsongroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/blog-7.png))**
> But aren’t people just maxing out their credit cards? No they aren’t is the quick and simple answer. Here’s a chart that looks at credit utilization to show what we mean. Credit utilization is how much of your credit limit you are using. Sure enough, this has held steady at 22%, compared with the pre-pandemic level of 24%. Even home equity credit utilization is running at 38%, well beneath the historical average of 51%. Again, this might shock most people who saw on the nightly news how ‘high overall debt’ has been lately. It simply isn’t true.
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://www.carsongroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/blog-8.png))**
> That’s enough about denominator blindness. Another thing we keep hearing is how consumers are in bad shape and the glass house is about to crack. Yet again, this just isn’t true, as delinquency balances didn’t increase last quarter, with 97.4% of total balances current on payments, unchanged from last quarter and higher than it was at the end of 2019. The chart below shows that delinquent balances that are more than 120 days late (including severely derogatory) are just 1.3% of total balances, below the 2.8% level before the pandemic.
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://www.carsongroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/blog-9.png))**
> There has been a jump in serious delinquencies on credit cards, but this is also simply getting back to more normal levels. The good news is other areas haven’t jumped higher yet.
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://www.carsongroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/blog-10.png))**
> Here’s one that might shock most people, third-party collections hit an all-time low. If the consumer was in such bad shape like they keep telling us, this would probably show a much different backdrop. In fact, only 4.6% of consumers have collections against them, the lowest in history and well beneath the 6.3% from a year ago and 9.2% average through 2019.
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://www.carsongroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/blog-11.png))**
> Another way of showing consumers are in better shape than they keep telling us is business applications are soaring. In other words, entrepreneurship is soaring, not something you tend to see when people are worried about paying that next bill. Nearly 300,000 applications were filed the first half of this year, 2% more than last year and 21% above 2019.
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://www.carsongroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/blog-12.png))**
> I will end this blog (which turned out to be much longer than I expected) with some help from three of my friends.
> First up, Callie Cox at eToro noted that credit card debt as a percent of total bank deposits was still historically low.
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://www.carsongroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/blog-13.png))**
> Neil Dutta at RenMac noted that household balance sheets are in fine shape, as household debt to income fell to nearly 86% in Q2, the lowest level since Q4 2021. Neil surmises that it is incomes, not debt, that are the main drivers of consumption lately.
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://www.carsongroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/blog-14.png))**
> Lastly, economists at Wells Fargo in a recent note said one major positive down the road is home equity. Consumers are sitting on trillions in equity and this could help in a lot of ways over the coming years. Read their great report for more on this concept.
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://www.carsongroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/blog-15.png))**
> We are aware the headlines regarding record credit card debt, student loan forgiveness and now some talk of credit card forgiveness are causing much anxiety for investors. Our take is we doubt there will be any forgiveness plans, especially in an election year. Instead, these headlines are being used in the media to create more division, eyeballs and clicks.
> The bottom line to us is the consumer remains in much better shape than the average investor realizes.
*****
> # Disinflation is Happening, And There’s More to Come
> Inflation has been top of mind for investors over the past year and a half, both from the perspective of what that means for the economy as well as monetary policy. So, the latest release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which tracks a basket of goods and services purchased by households, looms large every month. The big question going into this report was: inflation has pulled back, but will it stay lower and continue to pull back further?
> Based on the July report, the answer is yes.
Headline CPI rose 0.2% in July, as was expected. Inflation was up 3.2% year-over-year, a tick below expectations for a 3.3% reading. That’s well below the June 2022 level of 9%. As you can see in the chart below, energy, food, and vehicle prices have driven inflation lower.
> Over the past year:
> * Energy prices are down 12%
> * Food price inflation has eased to 4.9% (it was 11% in July 2022)
> * Used car prices are down 6%
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://www.carsongroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Blog-2023-08-10-headline-CPI-662x800.png))**
> Looking at year-over-year numbers can be a little misleading, especially because they’re dependent on the data from a year ago and that’s not particularly helpful to understand what’s happening right now. At the same time, monthly data can be noisy. That is why I like to look at the 3-month average, and as of July, headline inflation is running at a 1.9% annual pace over the past 3 months.
> We got good news on the core inflation front too, which is what the Federal Reserve focuses on since it removes volatile components like food and energy. Core inflation rose 0.2% in July, and over the last three months, it’s running at an annual pace of 3.1%. That’s a decisive shift lower from what we’ve seen over the past year and a half.
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://www.carsongroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Blog-2023-08-10-headline-core-inflation-3M-changes-567x800.png))**
> There are two big reasons why core inflation is pulling back, and it gets to why we believe inflation has more room to go lower. Vehicle and shelter make up 50% of the core inflation basket, and so what happens there is critical. Let’s talk about these.
> As I noted above, used car prices are pulling back. In fact, private data indicates that used car prices have fallen 11% since March, but that’s yet to be fully reflected in official data. So, there’s further room to fall over the next couple of months. Also, new vehicle prices have fallen about 0.5% since March, and this could continue moving lower as auto production improves and inventories rise.
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://www.carsongroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Blog-2023-08-10-used-car-prices-597x800.png))**
> Shelter inflation has been decelerating for a while now. It was running at an 8-10% annual pace at the beginning of the year. That slowed to the 6-7% range between March and May, and over the last two months, it’s moved below 6%. That’s progress, albeit slow.
> However, we know there’s a lot more room to go further down based on what’s happening in the rental market. Note that official shelter inflation does NOT include home prices and is just a measure of rents. Vacancies are up, and data from Apartment List shows that the national average rent is down 1% over the past year as of July.
> Official shelter inflation may not get to that low a level, but safe to say, it’s heading a lot lower from where it is now. Shelter inflation averaged about 3-3.5% between 2018-2019, which was consistent with core inflation running at 2% (the Fed’s target). Based on what we know now, shelter could fall to an annual pace as low as 2.5%, and that would be a significant downward force on inflation.
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://www.carsongroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Blog-2023-08-10-rnets-apartment-list-vs-official-598x800.png))**
> Even beyond vehicles and shelter, there are positive signs.
> A lot of supply-chain-impacted categories, like household furnishings and apparel, are also seeing disinflation. Airfares have been falling for four straight months now, with prices 20% lower from March. Even hotel/motel prices are down 4% over the same period. Of course, this is unlikely to continue, but it is more than welcome.
> All in all, the big takeaway is that disinflation is happening, and we’re likely to see more of it going forward.
> This also means the Federal Reserve is less likely to raise rates again at their September meeting. And if the inflation data progresses as we expect, the July rate hike may very well have been the last of the cycle. That’s going to be a big positive for investors as we head into the fall and winter.
*****
> # Bulls and Bears Beat the Average for Ten
> The S&P 500's selloff over the last week heading into today's CPI print caused bullish sentiment to dip a little. Compared to last week when 49% of respondents to the weekly AAII survey reported as bullish, this week only 44.7% reported as such. That is the weakest reading on optimism in a month, but remains well above the range of readings of most of the past year and a half.
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2023/08/081023-AAII-1.png))**
> The drop in bullishness was met with an increase in bearishness. Bearish sentiment rose back above 25% for the first time since the week of July 14th.
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2023/08/081023-AAII-2.png))**
> In turn, the bull-bear spread moved lower this week, crossing back below 20 to 19.2. That is the lowest reading in four weeks as the spread continues to point toward an overall bullish tilt to investor sentiment.
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2023/08/081023-AAII-3.png))**
> In fact, this week marked the tenth in a row that bullish sentiment sat above its historical average while simultaneously bearish sentiment was below its historical average. Looking across the past twenty years, there are not many examples of this sort of extended bullish sentiment streaks. In fact, only three other periods saw streaks of similar length. The most recent ended in May 2021 at 13 weeks. Before that, there was an identically long streak in the first quarter of 2012 and prior to that, you'd have to go all the way back to 2004 to find an example. In the 1990s through late 2000, such streaks were much more common.
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2023/08/081023-AAII-5.png))**
*****
> # Claims Seasonal Tailwinds Waver
> Initial Jobless Claims have been back on the rise for the last two weeks with this week's reading coming in at 248k versus estimates for 230k. That is the most elevated reading since the first week of July and marks the largest week-over-week rise since the first week of June.
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2023/08/081023-Claims-1.png))**
> Before seasonal adjustment, claims totaled 225.6K, up roughly 20K from the previous week. At those levels, claims are above those of the comparable week of last year and multiple pre-pandemic years. The past couple of weeks have seen particularly pronounced seasonal tailwinds which have historically ebbed this week and will again likely happen next week. However, those tailwinds are set to continue later this month into September when claims have typically reached an annual low point.
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2023/08/081023-Claims-2.png))**
> Lagged one week to initial claims, continuing claims came in lower than expected, dropping to 1.684 million from 1.7 million. That is slightly above the low from two weeks ago but does not yet disrupt the trend downward in continuing claims.
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2023/08/081023-Claims-3.png))**
> As for a state level breakdown of claims, in the heatmap below we show where continuing claims are most and least elevated as a share of the each state's respective labor force. As shown, the West Coast and Northeast are the two weakest regions of the country with the highest percentage of continuing claims. Some states in the Southwest like Texas and New Mexico and the Midwest like Illinois and Minnesota also have pockets of weakness. Given various states have different unemployment insurance program eligibility requirements, benefit amounts, and program lengths, that is not necessarily to say these are the areas with the highest unemployment rates, but rather these are the places contributing the most to national claims counts.
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2023/08/081023-Claims-4.png))**
*****
> # Small Businesses Less Concerned With Inflation
> In an earlier post, we noted the improvement to small business sentiment per the latest data from the NFIB. The report also includes survey responses as to what small businesses perceive to be their biggest problems. The July report showed that small businesses have begun to take notice of easing inflation. As shown below, throughout 2022 and into portions of 2023, inflation has ranked as the number one problem among small businesses. But in July, Quality of Labor retook the number one spot as it had temporarily back in May. Meanwhile, there has been a rise businesses saying that government requirements and red tape are their number one problem, tying cost of labor for the fourth most pressing issue.
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2023/08/080823-NFIB-MIP-1b.png))**
> Obviously, as it still occupies the number two spot, inflation remains a major problem. Even though it is a big improvement from 37% exactly one year ago, there continues to be 21% of firms that report inflation as their biggest problem. That is also well above any reading observed pre-pandemic.
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2023/08/080823-NFIB-MIP-2.png))**
> On a combined basis, cost and quality of labor are the most commonly reported problem for small businesses at 33% of responses. Unlike inflation which is hitting new lows, that is in the middle of the past few years' range.
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2023/08/080823-NFIB-MIP-5.png))**
> Historically, the NFIB survey has had sensitivities to politics with a bias towards being more optimistic during Republican administrations and vice versa. Since the Biden Presidency began, government related problems have been on the backburner given that inflation has been playing a more pressing role. However, there has been a steadily rising number of responses once again reporting government red tape or taxes as their biggest issues. That has come hand in hand with an increase in the survey's Economic Policy Uncertainty Index which experienced a pronounced 4 point jump month over month in July.
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2023/08/080823-NFIB-MIP-1.png))**
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2023/08/080823-NFIB-MIP-3.png))**
> Finally, we would note very few firms are reporting sales as their biggest problem. That is a significant disconnect from the index on actual sales changes which hit new lows in July.
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2023/08/080823-NFIB-MIP-4.png))**
*****
> # Small Business Sentiment Bounces Back
> Small business sentiment from the NFIB's monthly survey rebounded in July with the headline index reading 91.9 versus expectations of it rising only 0.3 points to 91.3. As shown below, small businesses are still reporting much weaker optimism than pre-pandemic or even in the first year of the pandemic, but sentiment has been making steady improvements in recent months.
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2023/08/080823-NFIB-1.png))**
> In the table below, we break down each category of the NFIB's survey. Again, the headline index remains historically low in the 14th percentile of readings. However, that is up from the 9th percentile last month. Most other categories that contribute to the optimism index also rose month over month, albeit there were multiple that went unchanged. As a result of those moves, most categories remain at the low end of their historical ranges with a couple of exceptions: Plans to Increase Employment and Job Openings Hard to Fill. Each of those readings are in the 76th and 94th percentiles, respectively. However, as we noted in today's Morning Lineup, overall this survey's employment metrics have pointed to softening of labor market activity.
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2023/08/080823-NFIB-1a.png))**
> While several categories saw stronger readings in July, none rose more than Outlook for General Business conditions which jumped by 10 points month over month. That is the second 10 point increase in a row which makes for the largest two month increase since May 2020. Although that reading showed an increase in optimism which coincides with continued improvement in the number of firms reporting that inflation pressures have eased, readings on small businesses actual operations were less rosy. Even though sales expectations were up, actual sales changes hit a new low of -13, the weakest since the spring of 2020, resulting in earnings changes to also drop.
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2023/08/080823-NFIB-2.png))**
*****
> # Long End Historically Oversold
> Treasury yields at the long end of the curve are once again rising today with the yield on the 30 year up 3.3 bps as of this writing. That is in the context of what has already been a dramatic move higher in yields of long term Treasuries. As we discussed in Friday's Bespoke report, the ETF tracking longer-dated Treasuries, the iShares 20+ Year US Treasury ETF (TLT), fell 1% or more three days in a row last week (prices fall when yields rise). Meanwhile, that move higher in long end yields has also been observed in other places of the world like Germany, as discussed in today's Morning Lineup.
> Given the steep rise in yields and hence a drop in the price of TLT, the ETF is trading at extremely oversold levels. While it has come back slightly and is currently 2.66 standard deviations below its 50-day moving average, at the most oversold reading last Thursday, TLT traded 3.84 standard deviations below its 50-DMA. In its over 20 years of history, that is the most oversold reading on record.
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2023/08/080723-TLT-1.png))**
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2023/08/080723-TLT-2.png))**
> As shown above there have only been a handful of other periods in which TLT has fallen at least three standard deviations below its 50-DMA as it did last week. In most circumstances, when an asset reaches such extreme levels of oversold, the thinking is that some upside mean reversion can be expected. However, the exact opposite has played out for TLT historically. As shown below, across the prior seven instances in which TLT got 3+ standard deviations below its 50-DMA, the ETF was lower a year later four times.
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2023/08/080723-TLT-3a.png))**
*****
Here is the list of notable tickers reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
*****
> (**T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.**)
*****
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!](https://i.imgur.com/TOK8mjS.png))**
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!]())**
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!](https://i.imgur.com/cOzqXUb.png))**
*****
# DISCUSS!
What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?
*****
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and an awesome trading week ahead r/stocks. :)
| 1,691,796,452
|
2023-08-11 23:27:32
|
bigbear0083
| 22
| 0
| 0.81
| null |
/r/stocks/comments/15oob56/wall_street_week_ahead_for_the_trading_week/
|
https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/15oob56/wall_street_week_ahead_for_the_trading_week/
|
stocks
|
3m
|
15nckuy
|
Sony Q1 revenue up 33% YoY to ~$20.7B, PS5 sales up 38% YoY to 3.3M, raises sales forecasts for the full year + more good news for Sony
|
Here’s how Sony did in the June quarter versus Refinitiv consensus estimates:
* **Revenue:** 3 trillion Japanese yen ($20.7 billion) versus 2.46 trillion yen expected. That represents a 33% year-on-year rise.
* **Operating profit:** 253 billion Japanese yen versus 251.24 billion yen expected. That marks a 31% year-on-year fall.
Sony raised its **revenue forecast for the full year by 6% to 12.2 trillion yen**, thanks to strength in its PlayStation gaming unit.
Sony made a **7% upward revision to its sales forecast for games and network services to 4.2 trillion yen**.
Sony is so far winning the latest round of the console wars — by a substantial margin.
**Sony PlayStation FY23 Q1 Earnings**
* Net Sales: $4.91B +28% YoY Operating Income: $313.3m -7% YoY
* Shipped 3.3m PS5 (+0.9m YoY); 41.7m LTD
* Shipped 56.5m software, of which 6.6m 1P (+8.4m YoY, 1P sales flat)
**Xbox Q4**
* Xbox hardware -13%
* Content/services +5%
* Total gaming revenue +1%
**PlayStation Q1**
* PS hardware +35%
* Network Services +17%
* Total gaming revenue +33%
In other news, **Crunchyroll passed 12 million paying subscribers**
* Feb 2017: 1 million subs
* Oct 2018: 2 million subs
* July 2020: 3 million subs
* Feb 2021: 4 million subs
* Aug 2021: 5 million subs
* Feb 2023: 10 million subs
* May 2023: 11 million subs
* July 2023: 12 million subs
NCLT greenlights **Zee-Sony merger, paves way for $10 bn media giant creation** \- The order by NCLT's Mumbai bench will pave the way for the creation of the biggest in the country.
| 1,691,674,155
|
2023-08-10 13:29:15
|
msaleem
| 50
| 9
| 0.9
| null |
/r/stocks/comments/15nckuy/sony_q1_revenue_up_33_yoy_to_207b_ps5_sales_up_38/
|
https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/15nckuy/sony_q1_revenue_up_33_yoy_to_207b_ps5_sales_up_38/
|
stocks
|
3m
|
15ezvef
|
The 2023 stock market rally got a lot healthier in June and July
| ERROR: type should be string, got "https://finance.yahoo.com/news/the-2023-stock-market-rally-got-a-lot-healthier-in-june-and-july-210139678.html\n\nJuly has come and gone for investors, bringing with it a continuation and a new twist on the blistering stock market gains seen in the first half of this year.\n\nThe Tech sector (XLK), along with some of last year's biggest losers like Communication Services (XLC) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY), powered the market's rally through May.\n\nJuly has come and gone for investors, bringing with it a continuation and a new twist on the blistering stock market gains seen in the first half of this year.\n\nThe Tech sector (XLK), along with some of last year's biggest losers like Communication Services (XLC) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY), powered the market's rally through May.\n[Money doesn't grow on trees]\n\nBut over the last two months, one of the biggest concerns among market bears — that the rally had become too concentrated — has been addressed with all 11 sectors in the S&P 500 (^GSPC) logging gains between June and July.\n\nAnd while the aforementioned stars of this year's rally are still playing a leading role, a surge in oil prices has brought Energy (XLE) into the fold with cyclical sectors like Materials (XLB) and Industrials (XLI) also sitting on gains north of 14% since June as optimism about the economy abounds.\n\nThis has left all sectors with the exception of Health Care (XLV) and Utilities (XLU) sitting on year-to-date gains through July.\n\nCombine this broad strength with the bullish year-to-date seasonality stats we've been compiling and the final five months of the year have some powerful tailwinds. Notably, however, Tuesday brings us into August, which has been the weakest month of the year over the last 25 years.\n\n[**Broadening of the market.**](https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/Cj8RJI9cSQHXtbHDpHlEqQ--/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjt3PTcwNQ--/https://s.yimg.com/os/creatr-uploaded-images/2023-07/134ad610-2fe2-11ee-bf6f-1ffefac75b64)\n\nIn the table above, we can see that the three leading sectors until May were those that house the so-called Magnificent Seven stocks, as well as the growthier names that tend to be less cyclical.\n\nThe Tech sector is home to much of the artificial intelligence trade, including Microsoft (MSFT) and Nvidia (NVDA). Apple (AAPL), which is up some 50% so far this year, is also a member of the Tech sector.\n\nAlphabet (GOOGL, GOOG), along with Meta Technologies (META), is a member of the Communication Services sector.\n\nAnd even with the rally broadening in recent months, we can see Tech is still doing a lot of the heavy lifting. It may not be a surprise, then, to learn that both Apple and Meta have been positive each month this year. (For Meta, the streak of monthly wins extends all the way back to November 2022.)\n\nThrough May, Amazon (AMZN) and other e-commerce plays were primarily responsible for boosting gains in the Consumer Discretionary sector.\n\nIn the two months since, brick and mortar stalwarts like Kohl's (KSS) and Nordstrom (JWN) have joined the rally, with each up over 50% since the end of May.\n\nCyclical names — whose fortunes vary more alongside the state of the economy — dominate the components of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI).\n\nAnd inside the index we can also see the game of catch-up taking place.\n\nThe latest returns from June to July are reflected on the x-axis in the chart below, while prior gains through May are expressed vertically on the y-axis.\n\nIndustrial giant Caterpillar (CAT) is alone at the right edge of the chart — up 29% the last two months after sinking 14% earlier this year. Caterpillar will report earnings on Tuesday.\n\n3M (MMM) and Boeing (BA) are also among top recent returns, while rounding out the top five are banking giant JPMorgan (JPM) and retail leader Home Depot (HD).\n\nAlso noteworthy are the few laggards that haven't mustered much the entire year and are camping out in the lower left of the chart.\n\nConsumer Staples (XLP) company Walgreens (WBA) happens to be dead last on the year-to-date list, down 20%. Telecom company Verizon (VZ) and pharmaceutical giant Merck (MRK) are also toward the bottom."
| 1,690,857,488
|
2023-08-01 02:38:08
|
putsRnotDaWae
| 31
| 5
| 0.78
|
Broad market news
|
/r/stocks/comments/15ezvef/the_2023_stock_market_rally_got_a_lot_healthier/
|
https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/15ezvef/the_2023_stock_market_rally_got_a_lot_healthier/
|
stocks
|
3m
|
159gla5
|
Summary of earnings from Jul 25 morning
|
* ↔️ **Verizon (VZ)** beat expectations on strong subscriber growth, stock is flat +0.47%
* 🔻 **General Motors (GM)** revenue and earnings soar, but unveils cost cutting measures, stock is down -4%
* ⬆️ **3M (MMM)** beat earnings expectations, raises profit outlook / forecast, stock up +5%
* ⬆️ **General Eletric (GE)** crushes earnings and raises outlook, stock up +6%
* 🔻 **Spotify (SPOT)** has revenue miss and weak guidance despite price hike, stock down -14%
* 🔻**Alaska Airlines (ALK)** posts record quarterly revenue but weak revenue forecast, stock down -10% pulling other airline stocks down with it.
I have no positions in any of the above individual stocks.
| 1,690,309,543
|
2023-07-25 18:25:43
|
FaatmanSlim
| 214
| 16
| 0.97
|
Broad market news
|
/r/stocks/comments/159gla5/summary_of_earnings_from_jul_25_morning/
|
https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/159gla5/summary_of_earnings_from_jul_25_morning/
|
stocks
|
3m
|
14zskrk
|
Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning July 17th, 2023
|
Good Friday evening to all of you here on r/stocks! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and are ready for the new trading week ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning July 17th, 2023.
# **Dow closes 100 points higher Friday on solid earnings, registers best week since March: Live updates - [(Source)](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/13/stock-market-today-live-updates.html)**
*****
> The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed Friday as strong earnings results from some of the biggest banks and companies kicked off earnings season.
*****
> The 30-stock Dow added 113.89 points, or 0.33%, to close at 34,509.03 and mark its fifth consecutive day of gains. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 dropped 0.10% to close at 4,505.42. The Nasdaq Composite declined 0.18%, ending at 14,113.70. Both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq touched their highest intraday levels since April 2022.
*****
> On a weekly basis, the Dow notched its best performance since March, up 2.3%. The S&P 500 added 2.4%, and the Nasdaq gained 3.3%.
*****
> UnitedHealth shares lifted the blue-chip index Friday as its top performer. The insurance giant jumped more than 7% after it reported better-than-expected adjusted earnings and revenue. The company also raised the lower end of its full-year adjusted earnings guidance. UnitedHealth was also the biggest gainer in the S&P 500′s health-care sector, which advanced 1.5%.
*****
> JPMorgan Chase rose 0.6% after its second-quarter earnings topped expectations. The bank was boosted by higher interest rates and rising interest income. Wells Fargo inched down 0.3%, even though the bank posted better-than-expected results.
*****
> “What we’ve seen out of big bank earnings, especially JPMorgan, is pretty resilient,” said Scott Ladner, chief investment officer at Horizon Investments.
*****
> “We’re seeing right now [that] default rates are still historically incredibly low and not showing signs of skyrocketing higher. So that’s a good sign for consumers and the economy,” Ladner added.
*****
> Expectations for this season are downbeat, with analysts forecasting a roughly 7% year-over-year drop in S&P 500 earnings, according to FactSet. That would mark the worst earnings season since the second quarter of 2020, when S&P 500 profits dropped 31.6%.
*****
> Investors’ sentiment has been lifted by soft inflation reports this week. The latest producer price index report showed inflation rose less than anticipated and built on trader optimism from the June consumer price index data, which came out Wednesday. Investors are now considering whether a strong economy illustrated by the recent data could push stocks higher by the end of the year.
*****
> “The Goldilocks scenario is alive and well, in terms of declining inflation pressures and [there’s] still fairly robust economic growth. So it’s a pretty good backdrop for risk assets,” said Ladner.
*****
# **This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:**
###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!](https://i.imgur.com/SnVyBia.png))**
# **S&P Sectors for this past week:**
###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!](https://i.imgur.com/8wwgPm7.png))**
# **Major Indices for this past week:**
###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!](https://i.imgur.com/zlKkM6r.png))**
# **Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:**
###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!](https://i.imgur.com/whAgQks.png))**
# **Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:**
###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!](https://i.imgur.com/HGfojKF.png))**
# **Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:**
###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://i.imgur.com/3SFz5nZ.png))**
# **S&P Sectors for the Past Week:**
###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://i.imgur.com/hzQE2Fl.png))**
# **Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:**
###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://i.imgur.com/zNBN2v5.png))**
# **Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:**
###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://i.imgur.com/HVJYMrk.png))**
# **Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:**
###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://i.imgur.com/KDO56Qe.png))**
# **Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:**
###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://i.imgur.com/cHQZN54.png))**
# **Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:**
###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!](https://i.imgur.com/96ajmzB.png))**
###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!](https://i.imgur.com/jr3IoGr.png))**
*****
> # NASDAQ Down 5 Straight During July Monthly Options Expiration Week
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://64.media.tumblr.com/0e35ad96acb434fc8ff47cfbe253ba09/4a5924a75bd97043-2b/s500x750/f43f7c12a146f12f283341caf2e57d15204eef2f.jpg))**
> Since 1982, the Friday of monthly options expiration week has a bearish bias for DJIA declining 23 times in 41 years with two unchanged years, 1991 and 1995. On Friday the average loss is 0.23% for DJIA and 0.25% for S&P 500. NASDAQ’s record is even weaker, down 25 of 41 years with an average loss of 0.38%. DJIA posts the best full-week performance, up 24 of 41 with an average 0.37% gain. However, NASDAQ has been weakest, down 22 times and the last five straight. The week after monthly options expiration leans bearish for NASDAQ over the longer-term with an average loss. In recent years the track record had been improving until 2015’s across the board, greater than 2% loss.
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://64.media.tumblr.com/58446a6c0eff3bfccb318adcf7147f43/4a5924a75bd97043-b1/s500x750/4a9c4beb42c23893f574aa73b0c155bb941438d6.jpg))**
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://64.media.tumblr.com/cb48f0bdcb96429703fed837638da305/4a5924a75bd97043-fd/s500x750/94f18d8f1557859ffaf50c57279d07b0f545a5df.jpg))**
*****
> # The Path to Lower Inflation is Now Clear
> The June CPI report was a positive surprise, both in terms of the headline numbers as well as the underlying details.
> Headline inflation rose 0.2% in June, which translates to a 2.2% annual pace. Over the past three months, inflation’s averaged about 2.7%, and over the last year it’s up 3.0%. That’s well off the peak pace of over 9% exactly a year ago.
> In my opinion, the reason for the decline is obvious when you look at the chart below. Energy prices drove the inflation surge in 2022, especially after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Energy prices have now declined 17% over the past year, pulling inflation lower. The good news is that food inflation is also easing a lot, rising at an annual pace of just 1.3% over the past 3 months. Remember the surge in egg prices? Well, egg prices have fallen 21% over the past 3 months.
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://www.carsongroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Blog-2023-07-13-headline-CPI-breakdown-698x800.png))**
> All this of course has been occurring for a few months now and shouldn’t be a big surprise.
> The problem until now was that “core inflation,” i.e., inflation once you strip out energy and food prices, remained elevated. But we got good news on that front.
> Core inflation rose just 0.16% in June, which translates to a 1.9% annual pace — the slowest monthly pace since August 2021! That’s great, but as you can see below, the 3-month pace remains above 4%. So, we’ve yet to see a consistent deceleration in core inflation, which is what the Federal Reserve is looking for.
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://www.carsongroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Blog-2023-07-13-headline-and-core-CPI-3M-607x800.png))**
> **Positive signs**
> We realize that one month does not make a trend, but a lot of the underlying details point to downward momentum. Let’s look at a few of these.
> Used and new vehicle prices, which make up 9% of the core inflation “basket,” have reversed a lot over the past year. However, used car prices rose in April and May, reversing some of that momentum. But things look to have turned around once again, with used car prices falling 0.5% in June. In fact, prices are likely to fall further over the next few months based on private used car auction data (Ryan pointed this out in his previous blog as well).
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://www.carsongroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Blog-2023-07-13-used-car-prices-597x800.png))**
> Moreover, the auto production supply chain bottlenecks are being resolved, and therefore we’re seeing vehicle production increase. As a result, prices for new vehicles have fallen about 0.4% over the past three months, and that downtrend is likely to continue given increased supply.
> The big one is housing inflation, which Ryan and I have been talking a lot about over the past year. Housing makes up 40% of core inflation, but importantly, it does not include home prices. Instead, it’s based on rents. The problem is that there is a significant lag between official rental inflation and private rents data. Private data from Apartment List shows that rents have decelerated from a peak of 18% year-over-year pace to zero as of June! Official data lags this data by about 12 months or so and it’s taken a while to reflect market reality.
> The good news is that official rental inflation appears to be turning lower. Rental inflation was averaging a 9% annual pace between June 2022 and February 2023. However, that’s fallen to about 6% over the past 4 months. That’s still higher than the 2018-2019 average of about 3-3.5%. But given what we’re seeing in market rents, we expect housing inflation to continue decelerating and that’s going to pull core inflation down in a big way later this year and into 2024 as well.
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://www.carsongroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Blog-2023-07-13-rents-598x800.png))**
> **What about the rest?**
> Fed Chair Powell has cited “core services ex housing” as still being elevated. We believe it’s their way of saying,
> “Yes, we see vehicle prices heading lower, and acknowledge the lags in housing inflation data; but we want to see the rest of it fall”
> But there’s good news on that front too.
> The Atlanta Federal Reserve calculates something called the “Sticky Price CPI excluding food, energy, and shelter.” Simply put, it measures inflation for items whose prices typically don’t change frequently.
> In June, this sticky price measure was flat. Over the past 3 months it’s running at a 1.4% annual pace, well below the peak of 7.3% we saw 15 months ago. A key piece of this is restaurant food prices, which have slowed down a lot recently on the back of falling food prices. But even things like airfares, daycare and pet care services inflation have been falling.
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://www.carsongroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Blog-2023-07-13-sticky-price-CPI-638x800.png))**
> You can see why the June inflation report was positive from so many angles. A low reading is positive by itself, but it also confirmed what we know from other sources about what to expect going forward.
> Perhaps the best news is that inflation is falling, and poised to fall even further, without a rise in unemployment and an economic slowdown. A year ago, Federal Reserve officials and many economists were saying that we probably need to go into a recession for inflation to slow down, and that aggressive rate hikes by the Fed would push us into one.
> Instead, the unemployment rate is at 3.6%, close to 50-year lows. If real GDP growth clocks in around 2% for last quarter (as seems likely), that would mean the economy’s grown at a 2.5% pace over the past year. While inflation’s fallen from 9% to 3%. That’s huge!
*****
> # NASDAQ’s Midyear Rally Ends on Friday
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://64.media.tumblr.com/098d81db4edec466f1ab4940532e7935/ba32bd5bc8ad9f7b-b2/s540x810/367ce2de99632e9aec0e376b195125b5c3cd5e2d.jpg))**
> From its close on June 27 (the fourth from last trading day) through today, NASDAQ has gained 2.7% which makes this year’s NASDAQ midyear rally slightly better than average. Today’s gains were largely fueled by better than anticipated CPI reading. Provided this translates into a better-than-expected PPI report tomorrow, additional gains are likely before NASDAQ’s midyear rally officially ends on Friday, July 14. The end of the rally also coincides with the historical seasonal mid-month July market peak in pre-election years. Since 1950, the second half of July has been weaker than the first half.
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://64.media.tumblr.com/619be3287d870f3ac7b6b4991b4e7073/ba32bd5bc8ad9f7b-39/s500x750/f8425b8e777ffd6c5d00551f442b733881c28980.jpg))**
*****
> # Inflation Expectations Still on the Decline
> Ahead of Wednesday's CPI, the New York Fed's Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCES) was released earlier this week and showed a continuation of the trend where consumer inflation expectations have been falling. Over the next 12 months, the Fed's survey showed that the median expected rate of inflation fell from 4.07% down to 3.83%. While still above its historical average of 3.4%, consumer expectations for inflation over the next year are down to the lowest level since April 2021. Over a longer time horizon, inflation expectations haven't fallen nearly as fast, but they didn't rise anywhere near as much as short-term expectations either. In the June survey, the median expected rate of inflation over the next three years fell from 2.98% down to 2.95%. While that reading barely budged, we would note that current expectations for inflation over the next three years are slightly below the long-term average. Unlike the FOMC, which ditched the term transitory 18 months ago, consumers have remained on team transitory.
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2023/07/071123-NY-Fed-Inflation-Exp.png))**
> One issue which has the potential to push inflation higher is how consumers expect their incomes to change over time. In this month's survey, the median expected rate of earnings growth increased from 2.80% up to 2.98% which is right around the high end of its range from the last two years. As shown in the chart below, while this series has tested the 3% level multiple times, it hasn't been able to bust through it. As it pertains to inflation, that's a good thing, because if consumers expect their incomes to increase, they're probably also less likely to push back on higher prices. At the same time, the fact that this reading has settled into a new higher range relative to its long-term average suggests that getting back down to and staying at levels of inflation that prevailed before COVID may prove to be difficult.
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2023/07/071123-NY-Fed-Earnings-Growth.png))**
*****
> # Small-caps Catch a Bid
> Small-caps have caught a bid over the last few days with the Russell 2,000 ETF (IWM) rallying more than 3% since last Thursday's close. Over the same time frame, the large-cap S&P 500 is up just 0.3%.
> While large-cap indices have recently traded to 52-week highs, small-caps are still well below 2023 highs made back in Q1. As shown below, though, IWM is currently attempting to break above the top end of the sideways range it has been in over the last month. If it can do that, the highs from earlier in the year will come into sight.
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2023/07/smalluse.png))**
> The Russell 2,000 (IWM) chart looks pretty interesting over a multi-year time frame. As shown below, the pre-COVID high made in early 2020 has acted as strong support over the past year. While IWM fell sharply during the mini-banking crisis this March, it stopped going down once it reached this key support level, and then it traded sideways and consolidated throughout much of April and May. Going forward, it appears that the Russell has built a strong base over the past year to springboard off of if the bull market for US equities can continue.
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2023/07/rtyiwm.png))**
> A chart that always captures our attention is the one below that shows Apple's (AAPL) market cap versus the combined market cap of all of the stocks in the small-cap Russell 2,000. Prior to COVID, Apple's market cap wasn't even close to the $2+ trillion market cap of the Russell 2,000. Since late 2021, though, the two have been battling it out. After its huge gain in Q2, Apple is currently in the lead at $2.96 trillion, but the Russell isn't too far behind at $2.81 trillion.
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2023/07/aaplrty.png))**
*****
> # Here We Go Again
> “Here I go again on my own. Going down the only road I’ve ever known.”
> -Here I Go Again by Whitesnake
> One of the main reasons we came into 2023 overweight equities (when everyone else was talking recessions and bear markets) was the over-the-top negativity. Rarely is the crowd and obvious trade right when it comes to investing and we assumed should we get any good news, stocks could surprise to the upside. One of the most staggering signs of negativity was the median strategist in this Bloomberg survey was looking for negative stock returns in ’23.
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://www.carsongroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/blog-1.jpg))**
> As we noted in Is Anyone Bullish? (from December 11, 2022), we’d never seen strategists this bearish heading into a new year. Then layer on the fact that stocks were down close to 20% in 2022 and the odds greatly favored a big bounce back year, as stocks were rarely down two years a in a row. Not to mention, the macro backdrop was on much better footing than the M2 is crashing, LEI is down, and yield curve fearmongers were telling us.
> All that happened was that the first six months of this year was the second best start to a year since 2000 for the S&P 500, best start for the NASDAQ in 40 years and the best start ever for the NASDAQ-100.
> Where are we now? Well, similar to the great Whitesnake song in the quote above, here I go again, down the only road I’ve ever known.
> Apparently, the only road these strategists know is doubling down on lower prices, as they expect the most bearish second half EVER. We’ll gladly take the other side to this, as we expect stocks to gain nicely the rest of this year, likely to new all-time highs.
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://www.carsongroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/blog-2.jpg))**
> Take note the other years they expected lower prices during the final six months of the year were 1999, 2019, 2020, and 2021. All the S&P 500 did those years was gain 7.0%, 9.8%, 21.2%, and 10.9%, respectively, over the final six months. That comes out to a very impressive 12.2% average, not bad, not bad.
> What also has my attention? We have some big inflation data out this week, but we’ve already seen some nice signs that inflation could surprise to the downside. First up, used cars accounted for nearly a third of the jump in inflation the past few years, but it is crashing lower, with used car prices experiencing their largest monthly drop since COVID. Given light auto production is running close to pre-COVID levels, this is another sign supply chains are working again and price pressures are abating.
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://www.carsongroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/blog-3_edit-800x450.png))**
> Speaking of supply chains, the New York Fed Global Supply Chain Pressure Index did jump last month, but it was coming off of the lowest level in history. Bottom line, supply chains are back to normal after years of disruptions.
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://www.carsongroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/blog-4-800x309.png))**
> Along with supply chains and used car prices improving, we expect to see shelter take a big dive the second half of this year. Remember, shelter makes up more than 40% of CPI and it has stayed stubbornly high lately. Well, we’ve seen drastic improvements from private data places like Apartment List and Zillow, suggesting that the government’s data will likely follow suit soon.
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://www.carsongroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/blog-5-598x800.png))**
> Lastly, we’ve been hearing a lot that the trillions of dollars in excess savings that consumers had over COVID was nearly all the way gone. The media are spinning this as a bearish event, as it means consumers aren’t saving anymore and they will run out of money to spend and keep the economy growing. Here’s the issue with that, the savings rate has been trending higher the past year and is more than two percent higher than it was in early 2022. The employment backdrop is still healthy, spending is solid and consumer confidence is improving. To us, all of that is positive.
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://www.carsongroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/blog-6-800x293.png))**
*****
Here is the list of notable tickers reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
*****
> (**T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.**)
*****
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!](https://i.imgur.com/KDO56Qe.png))**
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!]())**
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!]())**
(N/A.)
*****
# DISCUSS!
What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?
*****
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and an awesome trading week ahead r/stocks. :)
| 1,689,369,719
|
2023-07-14 21:21:59
|
bigbear0083
| 12
| 0
| 0.94
| null |
/r/stocks/comments/14zskrk/wall_street_week_ahead_for_the_trading_week/
|
https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/14zskrk/wall_street_week_ahead_for_the_trading_week/
|
stocks
|
3m
|
14woihu
|
(7/11) Tuesday's Pre-Market Stock Movers & News
|
#Good morning traders and investors of the r/stocks sub! Welcome to the new trading day and a fresh start! Here are your pre-market stock movers & news on this Tuesday, July the 11th, 2023-
*****
# [Stock futures are little changed as traders look ahead to key inflation data: Live updates](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/10/stock-market-today-live-updates.html)
*****
> U.S. stock futures were little changed Tuesday, after the major averages snapped a three-day decline, as traders await key inflation data slated for release later in the week.
*****
> S&P 500 futures dipped slightly, while Nasdaq-100 futures nudged higher by just 0.05%. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were down 57 points, or 0.2%.
*****
> Investors are coming off a positive session for the major averages. On Monday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 209.52 points, or 0.62%, while the S&P 500 advanced 0.24%. The Nasdaq Composite lagged, rising just 0.18%.
*****
> The June consumer price index report set for release Wednesday, as well as the June producer price index due out Thursday, will shed light on whether the decline in inflation has continued, and create the backdrop for future direction of interest rates.
*****
> Investors have penciled in another quarter-point increase at the Federal Reserve’s July 25-26 meeting. But they are undecided about what the central bank will do at its September meeting after last week’s continued robust jobs data raised concern that policymakers will revert to raising rates following the June pause.
*****
> “The pause, agree or disagree, is to gather more information,” Solus Alternative Asset Management’s Dan Greenhaus said Monday on CNBC’s “Closing Bell.” He added, “One more hike or two more hikes is much less important than when, ultimately, they begin to cut rates on the other side of this. That’s much more consequential for, I think, the risk landscape than one more hike or two more hikes.”
*****
> On the economic front, June’s NFIB Small Business Index, a measure of business confidence, is set for release Tuesday before the bell. Economists polled by Dow Jones are anticipating a reading of 90.0, slightly higher than the 89.4 level in May.
*****
> Second-quarter earnings season kicks off later this week with results from “systemically important financial institutions” such as JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo and Citigroup, plus BlackRock, PepsiCo and Delta Air. Dow component UnitedHealth reports Friday.
*****
#STOCK FUTURES CURRENTLY:
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR STOCK FUTURES CHARTS!](https://finviz.com/futures.ashx)**)
*****
#YESTERDAY'S MARKET MAP:
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR YESTERDAY'S MARKET MAP!](https://i.imgur.com/srvCuUg.png)**)
*****
#TODAY'S MARKET MAP:
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR TODAY'S MARKET MAP!](https://finviz.com/map.ashx?t=sec_all)**)
*****
#YESTERDAY'S S&P SECTORS:
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR YESTERDAY'S S&P SECTORS CHART!](https://i.imgur.com/uCHMuDV.png)**)
*****
#TODAY'S S&P SECTORS:
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR TODAY'S S&P SECTORS CHART!](https://finviz.com/groups.ashx)**)
*****
#TODAY'S ECONOMIC CALENDAR:
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR TODAY'S ECONOMIC CALENDAR!](https://i.imgur.com/7l2O9ef.png)**)
*****
#THIS WEEK'S ECONOMIC CALENDAR:
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR THIS WEEK'S ECONOMIC CALENDAR!](https://i.imgur.com/OWX8zmj.png)**)
*****
#THIS WEEK'S UPCOMING IPO'S:
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR THIS WEEK'S UPCOMING IPO'S!](https://i.imgur.com/6he4UyZ.png)**)
*****
#THIS WEEK'S EARNINGS CALENDAR:
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR THIS WEEK'S EARNINGS CALENDAR!](https://i.imgur.com/aGyM3dS.png)**)
*****
#THIS MORNING'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS CALENDAR:
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR THIS MORNING'S EARNINGS CALENDAR!](https://i.imgur.com/FXY9Exw.png)**)
*****
#EARNINGS RELEASES BEFORE THE OPEN TODAY:
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR THIS MORNING'S EARNINGS RELEASES!](https://i.imgur.com/R0tPh0c.png)**)
*****
#THIS AFTERNOON'S AFTER-HOURS EARNINGS CALENDAR:
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR THIS AFTERNOON'S EARNINGS CALENDAR!]()**)
(NONE.)
*****
#EARNINGS RELEASES AFTER THE CLOSE TODAY:
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR THIS AFTERNOON'S EARNINGS RELEASES!]()**)
(NONE.)
*****
#YESTERDAY'S ANALYST UPGRADES/DOWNGRADES:
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S ANALYST UPGRADES/DOWNGRADES LINK #1!](https://i.imgur.com/GologVf.png)**)
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S ANALYST UPGRADES/DOWNGRADES LINK #2!](https://i.imgur.com/YQM4lLb.png)**)
*****
#YESTERDAY'S INSIDER TRADING FILINGS:
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR YESTERDAY'S INSIDER TRADING FILINGS!](https://i.imgur.com/mqx4hM8.png)**)
*****
#TODAY'S DIVIDEND CALENDAR:
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR TODAY'S DIVIDEND CALENDAR!](https://i.imgur.com/atsKWzS.png)**)
(N/A.)
*****
#THIS MORNING'S STOCK NEWS MOVERS:
######(**source: [cnbc.com](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/11/stocks-making-the-biggest-premarket-moves-.html)**)
*****
> **JetBlue Airways** — JetBlue Airways lost nearly 2% after Evercore ISI downgraded the airline to underweight, citing the recent sharp rally in shares and balance sheet concerns.
> #**STOCK SYMBOL:** JBLU
> * [CLICK HERE FOR CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=JBLU&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)
> ######(**[CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/JBLU)**)
*****
> **Zillow Group** — The stock popped 4.7% after being upgraded by Piper Sandler to overweight from neutral. Analyst Thomas Champion also hiked his price target to $62 per share, suggesting 33% upside from Monday’s close. Product optionality and new initiatives, as well sequential improvements in the housing macro environment were among the reasons for his call.
> #**STOCK SYMBOL:** ZG
> * [CLICK HERE FOR CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=ZG&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)
> ######(**[CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/ZG)**)
*****
> **JPMorgan Chase** — The Wall Street heavyweight added 1.2% in premarket trading after an upgrade from Jefferies to buy from hold on Tuesday. The firm also labeled JPMorgan Chase as “best-in-class.”
> #**STOCK SYMBOL:** JPM
> * [CLICK HERE FOR CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=JPM&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)
> ######(**[CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/JPM)**)
*****
> **U.S. Bancorp** — Shares of the Minnesota-based bank gained 2.2% following an upgrade to buy from neutral by Bank of America. Analyst Ebrahim Poonawala said U.S. Bancorp is among the highest quality franchises in the U.S. banking industry, with its scale, earnings and strong execution expected to drive superior earnings growth and stock outperformance.
> #**STOCK SYMBOL:** USB
> * [CLICK HERE FOR CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=USB&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)
> ######(**[CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/USB)**)
*****
> **Amazon** — Shares ticked 0.8% higher as the e-commerce giant kicked off its highly anticipated Prime Day summer sale, which goes through Wednesday. Wells Fargo also added Amazon to its Signature Picks list, citing better expectations for Amazon Web Services, Prime Day revenue growth and a risk-reward that is still favorable.
> #**STOCK SYMBOL:** AMZN
> * [CLICK HERE FOR CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=AMZN&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)
> ######(**[CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/AMZN)**)
*****
> **WD-40** — Shares jumped more than 5% after the lubricant and rust-remover maker reported fiscal third-quarter results postmarket Monday. WD-40 posted $141.7 million in total net sales, a 15% increase from the prior year.
> #**STOCK SYMBOL:** WDFC
> * [CLICK HERE FOR CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=WDFC&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)
> ######(**[CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/WDFC)**)
*****
> **3M** — Shares rose nearly 2% in premarket trading following an upgrade to neutral from underperform by Bank of America. The bank said 3M has positive catalysts ahead related to litigation settlements, restructuring and the planned spin-off for the health care business.
> #**STOCK SYMBOL:** MMM
> * [CLICK HERE FOR CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=MMM&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)
> ######(**[CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/MMM)**)
*****
> **Zions Bancorp, Truist** — The bank stocks were under pressure Tuesday morning after Jefferies downgraded both Zions and Truist to hold from buy, lowering its earnings estimates for the two companies. Shares of Zions fell 1.5% in premarket trading, while Truist’s were down 1%.
> #**STOCK SYMBOL:** ZION
> * [CLICK HERE FOR CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=ZION&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)
> ######(**[CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/ZION)**)
*****
> #**STOCK SYMBOL:** TFC
> * [CLICK HERE FOR CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=TFC&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)
> ######(**[CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/TFC)**)
*****
> **Iovance Biotherapeutics** — Iovance Biotherapeutics fell more than 11%. The biotech company on Monday said the pricing of its underwritten public offering, of 20 million shares of common stock, would be at $7.50 per share. The gross proceeds from the offering are set to be about $150 million.
> #**STOCK SYMBOL:** IOVA
> * [CLICK HERE FOR CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=IOVA&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)
> ######(**[CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/IOVA)**)
*****
#**FULL DISCLOSURE:**
> /u/bigbear0083 has no positions in any stocks mentioned. Reddit, moderators, and the author do not advise making investment decisions based on discussion in these posts. Analysis is not subject to validation and users take action at their own risk.
*****
#**DISCUSS!**
What's on everyone's radar for today's trading day ahead here at r/stocks?
*****
# **I hope you all have an excellent trading day ahead today on this Tuesday, July 11th, 2023! :)**
| 1,689,074,444
|
2023-07-11 11:20:44
|
bigbear0083
| 7
| 0
| 0.88
| null |
/r/stocks/comments/14woihu/711_tuesdays_premarket_stock_movers_news/
|
https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/14woihu/711_tuesdays_premarket_stock_movers_news/
|
stocks
|
3m
|
14ujbvm
|
CIM-B: Higher for Longer
|
As the market continues to price in higher interest rates for longer, there is opportunity in owning floating rate securities. CIM-B is a preferred stock issued by Chimera Investment Corporation with a fixed rate coupon of 8.0%. CIM-B trades at a 15% discount to par leading to a current rate of 9.4%.
On 3/30/24, 9 months from now, CIM-B switches to a floating rate security of 5.79% + 3m SOFR + 0.26%. The 3m SOFR is the replacement for LIBOR and is currently at 5.26%. That puts the floating rate coupon at 11.3%. At the current price of $21.34, the yield would be 13.2%.
My investment thesis is that CIM-B moves to its par value of $25 over the next 9 months. I think there will be $1.50 in dividends and $3.66 in capital gains in those 9 months resulting in a 24% total return. I think $25 is a fair price because that puts the yield at 130 bps higher than the fixed rate CIM-A, more than enough additional yield to compensate for the potential for rate decreases. However, $25 is roughly the maximum share price as CIM can redeem the shares at $25 at anytime after 3/30/24. I wouldn’t be surprised if CIM does redeem the shares, a win for investors.
CIM-B is far from risk free, but I think the potential for a quick 9 month profit is worth the risk. CIM owns residential mortgages. Not the type guaranteed by Freddie or Fannie. If you remember the Big Short’s quote of dog shit wrapped in cat shit. CIM owns the dog shit. It’s not as bad as 2007. The mortgages have low loan to value (LTV) as mortgage standards are tighter and the housing market has had considerable appreciation since the mortgages were written. The job market for subprime mortgage customers is strong. CIM has minimal leverage allowing it to handle delinquencies.
It’s not a risk free 24% 9 month return, but I’m comfortable with it.
Here’s the CIM [investor presentation](https://d1io3yog0oux5.cloudfront.net/_a0f938f160fc1c8a4f78fe77ecb8044f/chimerareit/db/862/7941/pdf/Investor+Presentation+June+2023_Final+%281%29.pdf)
I encourage you to look up the details of CIM-B at QuantumOnline.com. Benefits of CIM-B include cumulative dividends (if CIM can’t pay preferred dividends, they accrue and must be fully paid before their common stock can pay a dividend.). CIM is an mREIT that must pay out 90% of profits to maintain its tax status, meaning the preferred stock dividends must be paid. Not a tax advisor, but every mREIT dividend I’ve seen qualifies as a 199A tax break effectively leading to dividends taxed at only 80% of your marginal tax rate.
If you want more ideas like CIM-B, here’s my previous posts.
[RITM-D](https://www.reddit.com/r/dividends/comments/xnoxsu/ritmd_high_yield_preferred_shares/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=ioscss&utm_content=1&utm_term=1)
[ASB-E](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/13j0e5j/regional_bank_preferred_stock/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=ioscss&utm_content=1&utm_term=1)
[High Yield Corporate Bonds](https://www.reddit.com/r/dividends/comments/14207bq/high_yield_corporate_bonds/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=ioscss&utm_content=1&utm_term=1)
| 1,688,860,357
|
2023-07-08 23:52:37
|
Rule_Of_72T
| 10
| 0
| 0.78
|
Company Analysis
|
/r/stocks/comments/14ujbvm/cimb_higher_for_longer/
|
https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/14ujbvm/cimb_higher_for_longer/
|
stocks
|
3m
|
13sbdgz
|
Sell at&t and 3M?
|
Hello everyone.
I bought into T and 3M around the begging of COVID and stupidly didn't sell even with the looming problems of both companies.
My problem is I want to downsize my portfolio and inject that cash into vusa or split it between my other holdings.
Does anyone actually have any faith left in these companies or is it time to let go? I've tried to average down as much as I can but I don't see much light at the end of the tunnel for them.
| 1,685,102,764
|
2023-05-26 12:06:04
|
AlexRazyy
| 38
| 52
| 0.88
| null |
/r/stocks/comments/13sbdgz/sell_att_and_3m/
|
https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/13sbdgz/sell_att_and_3m/
|
stocks
|
3m
|
13kvyir
|
Disney (DIS) DCF UPDATED.
|
# Introduction:
I did a DCF during Bob Chapek's reign and now during Bob Iger's reign, I think DIS is a lemon not because of how badly the company is ran but rather the industry that DIS is in. In this new DCF, I gave my opinion on certain arms of the business and even made assumptions that DIS will pivot fast enough into greener pastures. But even that didn't save the value of this company. Not to mention, this company utterly sucks at reporting their financials so a fair bit of simplifying assumptions had to be made. I've linked my old DCF if you'd like to read it but I'll tear apart why my old DCF was wrong in the end. Old DCF: ([SOURCE](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/zvn7if/disneydis_dcf_analysis_need_advice_and_criticisms/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3))
# REVENUE:
DMED (%REV)
The emphasis on DMED will eventually fade away, linear network seems to be phasing out in popularity as it’s mainly being held up by Gen X and Baby Boomers ([SOURCE](https://morningconsult.com/2023/03/28/linear-tv-viewership-gen-z-millennials/)), The average life expectancy is 72 years ([SOURCE](http://datatopics.worldbank.org/world-development-indicators)). So DIS will pivot away from Linear Network, as evident by management's heavy emphasis on DIS+ especially during conference calls. “About 50% of this demographic is expected to cut the cord by 2025” ([SOURCE](https://www.brid.tv/what-is-linear-tv/)). So I’m assuming it has a half life of about 3 years. But, given Linear Network contributes 25% of Revenue in FY22 it may not drop to a very large extent so I’m assuming it plateaus at about 23%.
DMED (Y/Y)
Given how volatile to changes DMED is for the duration of my forecast, I used a historic number when forecasting DMED. Believing that 2022’s Linear TV trend will continue.
DPEP (%REV)
DPEP will plateau at a level slightly below pre disney+ levels of 2017 and 2018, as Disney+ begins taking up larger portions of the revenue.
DPEP (Y/Y)
The largest 4 theme parks in the US and UK had an average CAGR of 4.93% for the last 10 years. (SOURCE). However, with the advent of more entertainment and more addictive kind e.g. Tiktok or VR, I’d say this trend is unlikely to continue for the next 10 years. The growth tend downwards.
DTC (%REV)
DTC will begin taking up a larger portion of its revenue as it takes over some of the role played by linear network and as DTC has a much wider reach than Linear Network e.g. Able to reach mobile phones instead of being fixed on television, very valuable in countries where television is expensive (See success of NFLX in APAC). DTC makes portions of Linear Network obsolete.
DTC (Y/Y)
Management has stated its goal is to make DTC profitable by end 2024, I project that it will reach this goal. I’ve done the calculation and DTC will maintain this pace in accordance with the pace that NFLX is growing at as well, given that the streaming industry is an oligopoly one.
REVENUE MODEL: \[[SOURCE](https://imgur.com/a/8Sx5AH3)\]
#
#
COST:
COST OF SERVICES
Most of disney services have variable costs e.g. Theme Parks having to expand more to take on higher capacity or DTC having to pay more for bandwidth as more customers subscribe, and DIS has to constantly maintain production in order to remain attractive for existing subscribers.
COST OF PRODUCTS
As DIS gets more popular, they produce more merchandise in bulk which could lead to economies of scale. So the cost of products falls over time.
SG&A
Utilities are a variable cost, whereas rent is a fixed cost so increasing capacity has higher marginal benefit. I’d argue that SG&A falls slightly over time as DIS approaches its capacity limits.
COST MODEL: \[[SOURCE](https://imgur.com/a/2lUUVLI)\]
# COST OF CAPITAL:
**COST OF DEBT**
RFR (3M Average) = 3.53%
Risk Spread = 1.62% (SOURCE, Bond Rating A-)
COD = 5.15%
Marginal Tax Rate = 21%
AT-COD = 4.0685%
**COST OF EQUITY**
Market Beta = 1.04 (SOURCE)
Market Price(3M Average) = $97.11
Shares O/S = 1823M
MV Equity = 177032M
4105.02 = \[4.58% x 4105.02\] x (1+5%) / (1+R) + (\[4.58% x 4105.02\] x (1+5%)) x (1+3.417%) / R - 3.417% / (1+R) \^2
R = 8.635%
RFR (US) = 3.417%
ERP = 5.218%
COE = 8.96%
**WEIGHTAGE**
(SOURCE) Thereafter taken to be 10 Years.
PV Operating Lease Liability = 3626M
For debt there was no debt breakdown so I took BV Debt as the best estimate of Liability.
Total Liability = 51995M
%Equity = 77.3%
%Liability = 22.7%
WACC = 7.85%
# Conclusion:
I've valued DIS at $69.38. With so much of their revenue in an outdated system, it's like a time bomb waiting to go off. What's worse is that most of DIS' cost are variable cost which means that they increase as o/p increases so margins are more or less fixed in place. It's hard for me to see how DIS could potentially dig themselves out of this. The plus side is that they are generating positive cash flow so hope is definitely there.
Now, my old DCF is inaccurate because I did not capitalize content acquisition costs so that did not accurately reflect the nature of content acquisition. In perpetuity, I'm assuming that D&A > CapEX which is impossible as you can't depreciate more than the par value of a PP&E. I've just done the math but for my terminal year to hold I need to earn a ROE of 522%, beyond ridiculous. Terminal Year Y/Y is at 8% which is significantly beyond TGR.
NEW DCF: \[[SOURCE](https://imgur.com/a/RUGDnwf)\]
| 1,684,408,445
|
2023-05-18 11:14:05
|
Hanzoisbad
| 48
| 58
| 0.76
|
Company Analysis
|
/r/stocks/comments/13kvyir/disney_dis_dcf_updated/
|
https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/13kvyir/disney_dis_dcf_updated/
|
stocks
|
3m
|
138q0z6
|
Netflix (NFLX) DCF Analysis.
|
# INTRODUCTION:
NFLX has come a long way since being rejected by blockbuster, its secret formula being the first to embrace change. It embraced DVD at a time where VHS was still the dominant mode of display. It embraced Streaming when the world started catching onto DVD. NFLX's edge was that it always pivoted quickly to the next big thing. But NFLX’s massive progress may soon grind to a halt. From lackluster solutions to strong competitors and pure market saturation, NFLX has a tough road ahead.
**INVESTMENT THESIS 1:**
*Overblown Growth Solutions*
When NFLX lost subscribers for the first time in 10 years, people freaked out and started selling off NFLX. But it seems that when NFLX announced its plans and after 1 successful quarter with some results from Ad-Tier NFLX bounced back up almost doubling from when it first dropped due to the shock.
Ad-Tier has some parallels to pirated sites. Both stream contents with Ads injected into the mix, either before the video plays or on the side of the screen. The main difference is that one is free and the other costs $6.99/month.
There are only so many people in the world that wants a YouTube equivalent as their streaming platform. The people who purchase Ad-Tier are usually “seasonal” fans, those that purchase cheaply so that they can watch their favorite series and unsubscribe afterwards. These subscribers have no longevity to them and temporarily bump up NFLX’s numbers.
Paid-sharing, getting people to get off shared accounts and getting their own accounts. Depending on how NFLX goes about it paid sharing could be a game changer for NFLX. There is already an existing customer base from those that are sharing account, they show a liking for NFLX but whether these customers will convert is dependent on certain factors Effectiveness of Paid-Sharing, ‘FOMO’ factor and Piracy.
Effectiveness of Paid-Sharing,
Is the net cast wide enough to catch all the paid-sharing users? What are the ways we go about catching Paid-Sharing?
‘FOMO’ factor,
Just how much are customers missing out will determine how they weigh the cost of monthly subscription and the ability to participate in the latest series.
Piracy,
Is it easy to find alternatives that can provide what NFLX provides for free?
**INVESTMENT THESIS 2:**
*Strong Competitors & Lack of C.A.*
The usual suspects obviously include DIS, Hulu and AMZN prime. But, what about the less obvious ones?
TikTok & Instagram reels. There’s only so much entertainment needed in one’s life. You can’t possibly simultaneously watch TikTok while watching a NFLX series, your attention can only be paid in one direction. ([SOURCE](https://www.marketingdive.com/news/tiktok-netflix-gen-z-video-broadcast-app/634594/#:~:text=TikTok%20has%20jumped%20over%20Netflix,the%20sixth%20most%20popular%20service))
Or AMZN with an all-inclusive ride on their AMZN prime with AMZN prime offering other benefits on their online retail store. They are “Offer-Stacking” creating an unbeatable offer that NFLX can’t counter.
DIS has a large vault of already created storyline that they have archived yet to be released onto Disney+ and the familiarity of DIS’ brand name enhanced by their theme park creates a very strong branding fit for the entire family that NFLX can’t parallel. ([SOURCE](https://www.statista.com/statistics/294111/leading-organizations-in-licensed-merchandise-worldwide/))
NFLX has no differentiator other than it was the earliest entrant and is now the largest entrant. There are certain exclusive content on NFLX that may make it appealing, but these kinds of advantages are superficial and over the long run, these exclusive content may offer their rights to stream to competitors or may be pirated.
**INVESTMENT THESIS 3:**
*Market Saturation*
NFLX can only grow so much.
UCAN from FY21-22 only added 0.7M subscribers and LATAM added 3M. LATAM’s market was already said to be 75% penetrated by NFLX ([SOURCE](https://labsnews.com/en/articles/technology/netflix-streaming-leader-latin-america-future/)).
NFLX should focus on making its subscribers more valuable which management has said it will focus on now, but it has only so far laid out plans to attract new subscribers.
Even if Linear Network loses most of its grounds in the next 10 years, NFLX may not gain much subscribers from Linear Network simply because Linear Network is mainly supported by the exact demographic that would not be on NFLX.
# REVENUE:
***Model***
I’ve used a bottoms-up approach when modelling my revenue and forecasted using historical data and surveys done.
***Revenue/Subscriber***
NFLX applies third degree price discrimination in how it prices subscriptions/month for different regions. Regions where it has already established a presence and where NFLX integrated into their daily life, NFLX charges a higher subscription/month.
But I don’t think every region will eventually tend towards the UCAN cost. Certain regions may see subscription services as a luxury good.
Overall, with the implementation and wide rollout of the Ad Tier I project my average revenue/customer to be higher for every region as the Ad Tier generates higher revenue per subscriber monthly, according to management.
According to 2021 US Bureau of Labor Statistics, an American with Annual income of $78,743 and expenditure of $66,928 spent 0.97% of that amount in entertainment and of that 0.97% only 18% goes towards “Fees and admissions” so about 0.17% of $66,928 went towards NFLX. $654 represented the annual spending on subscription services + others. NFLX takes up 30% of this, most households have more than 1 subscription. So, NFLX is probably tethering at the limit at which it can raise prices.
Comparing the cost per month of subscription between NFLX and its closest competitor DIS, Disney+ cost $4.80 compared to NFLX $15.86.
So, I forecast that the majority of increase in Revenue/Subscriber for the US will come from wider adoption of Ad-Tier subscription which yields a higher amount of Revenue/Subscriber rather than NFLX increasing prices.
European subscription is one of the highest cost to subscribe ([SOURCE](https://beebom.com/how-much-netflix-costs-each-country-worldwide/)) so, I'd say its unlikely EMEA will raise monthly subscription cost but rather EMEA is the region with the highest likelihood to group subscribe to lower subscription cost. So EMEA is more likely to add subscribers than revenue/subscriber.
**OVERALL, I assume that the full effects of FOMO for Ad-Tier will only show up from 2025 onwards.**
***No. of Subscriber***
For Paid Sharing,
NFLX has stated that the potential market could be up to 100+M households. I do also believe that convincing people who were previously sharing accounts of purchasing their own account may take some time to catch on, as they will have large FOMO after being locked out of their old account and missing the latest shows. And since NFLX only intends on fully releasing Paid Sharing from 23Q2 onwards, I believe the substantial addition to subscribers will only show up from 2025 onwards with the FOMO effect in full and Paid Sharing being rolled out entirely.
For fall of Linear Network,
([SOURCE](https://morningconsult.com/2023/03/28/linear-tv-viewership-gen-z-millennials/))
Almost 40% of Linear Network supporters are baby boomers. As the baby boomers age and decrease in numbers Linear Network will start losing its main customers, freeing up market share for NFLX to take as the younger generations start being associated with Streaming services, streaming will become the new norm.
BUT, this cultural change will be one that takes time. It will not show up to a substantial amount in the time period of my forecast. So I opt for more granularity.
**REVENUE MODEL: \[**[INSERT](https://imgur.com/a/9c2expe)\]
# MARGINS:
The difficulty in figuring out margins is that there is no reliable historic data within the past 5 years. Margins were always extremely skewed by extreme conditions.
E.g. from 2019 to 2020 margins jumped from 12% to 18% due to covid accelerating the adoption of NFLX.
OR in 2021 the marginal cost of acquiring content wrt to revenue being generated was the cheapest of the past 7 years at $0.5836 per $1 of revenue generated. Likely because people were embracing NFLX as tech adoption was accelerated prior year, margins peaking only a year later.
So, cost is broken down into 3 categories (Acquisition, Marketing and (Tech & Dev + G&A)). Tech & Dev + G&A are lumped together for more granularity instead of inaccurate forecasts.
***Acquisition***
As NFLX transitions into subscriber retention mode rather than attracting subscribers it inevitably will spend more on making its services more attractive so that existing customers will face a higher “emotional” switching cost, so churn rate is lowered. But acquisition will continue to take the largest portion of cost.
***Marketing***
Eventually the NFLX brand becomes more well-known or integrated into people’s daily life that they spend less on marketing themselves and more on advertising new content. Marketing costs will start to tend downwards. BUT there must always be a baseline amount of marketing cost to advertise new content.
***Tech & Dev + G&A***
Tech & Dev + G&A is likely to remain elevated for the first few years as NFLX starts to roll out Ad-Tier and begin supporting a substantial amount of new subscribers from Ad-Tier. But eventually as the number of new subscribers dwindles down, NFLX gets more efficient and needs fewer employees. It will also implement new tech features e.g. AI tech support to lower the number of employees necessary. So at that point Tech & Dev + G&A will tend downwards.
**COST MODEL: \[**[INSERT](https://imgur.com/a/yX54W9I)**\]**
# COST OF CAPITAL:
***Cost of Debt***
RFR (3M Average) = 3.53%
Risk Spread (3M Average) = 1.71% ([SOURCE](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLC0A4CBBB))
Cost of Debt = 5.24%
***Timing of Debt***
\[[TABLE](https://imgur.com/a/CoSEpe2)\]
Weighted Average Timing of Debt = 1.57 Years.
MV Debt = 19225M
***Cost of Equity***
Market Beta = 1.27 ([SOURCE](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NFLX?p=NFLX))
Market Price(3M Average) = $341.52
Shares O/S = 445M
MV Equity = 151976M
4105.02 = \[4.58% x 4105.02\] x (1+5%) / (1+R) + (\[4.58% x 4105.02\] x (1+5%)) x (1+3.417%) / R - 3.417% / (1+R) \^2
R = 8.635%
RFR (US) = 3.417%
ERP = 5.218%
COE = 10.16%
***Weightage***
% Equity = 88.8%
%Debt = 11.2%
***WACC***
Corporate marginal Tax Rate = 21%
WACC = 9.49%
# CONCLUSION:
Ultimately, I’ve valued NFLX at $174.62, I just don’t believe in how astronomical growth could be, with all the changes that NFLX has introduced into the company. I believe that NFLX has set their priorities wrongly and are focusing on the wrong things, Subscriber growth shouldn’t be the focus it should be making our subscribers more profitable. It’s a good sign that they started caring and innovating again. But at the current trajectory I just don’t see it working out.
DCF: \[[INSERT](https://imgur.com/a/pCyLgNV)\]
| 1,683,297,671
|
2023-05-05 14:41:11
|
Hanzoisbad
| 21
| 12
| 0.8
|
Company Analysis
|
/r/stocks/comments/138q0z6/netflix_nflx_dcf_analysis/
|
https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/138q0z6/netflix_nflx_dcf_analysis/
|
stocks
|
3m
|
134dq26
|
Bill.com Holdings, Inc. ($BILL) target price was reduced by KeyCorp while analysts remain optimistic about future growth.
|
On April 29, 2023, it was reported that Bill.com Holdings, Inc. ($BILL) had its target price reduced by equities research analysts at KeyCorp from $100.00 to $95.00 in a research report issued to clients and investors on Friday. However, KeyCorp’s price target still reveals a potential upside of 21.27% from the stock’s current price.
Bill.com Holdings, Inc is a cloud-based software company that offers financial solutions for small and midsize businesses around the globe. The company provides software-as-a-service for automated accounts payable and receivable transactions, cloud-based payments, and spend management products that enable users to connect with their suppliers and customers effortlessly.
Bill.com had revenue of $260.01 million during the last quarter, compared to analyst estimates of $242.59 million. It reported negative net margins of up to 40.65% and negative return on equity of 6.23%, but exceeded earnings per share (EPS) expectations. Despite the unexpected slump in Bill.com’s target price reduction by KeyCorp, such reductions are not uncommon in the stock market industry. Sell-side analysts forecast that $BILL will post -2 EPS for the current fiscal year, investors should keep track of how this prediction unfolds over time before making any investment decisions regarding Bill.com Holdings, Inc.’s stock options.
In conclusion, while some investors may view Bill.com target price reduction as negative news in light of current market conditions, others may see it as an opportunity to acquire shares at a discounted rate with hopes that they will rise again in due time according to future predictions or market speculation.
Bill.com Holdings, Inc provides cloud-based software that simplifies, digitizes, and automates back-office financial operations for small and midsize businesses worldwide. The company offers a suite of software-as-a-service, cloud-based payments, and spend management products designed to help users automate accounts payable and accounts receivable transactions while connecting them with their suppliers and/or customers to do business.
In recent months, several brokerages have issued reports on Bill.com, with Piper Sandler reducing their price target from $140.00 to $110.00 and Oppenheimer lowering their price objective from $150.00 to $125.00. Despite these adjustments, Bill.com still holds strong fundamentals, closing at $78.34 following its Friday opening priced at $79.09 for its 50-day simple moving average and $101.22 for its 200-day simple moving average.
CFO John Rettig sold 6,008 shares of BILL stock at an average price of $93.01 per share on February 6th for a total transaction value of $558K. Insider Rajesh Aji sold two separate portions totaling up to 847 shares in the same quarter: his first transaction on February 15th when he sold his initial set of shares at an average price of $99; his second transaction involved trading away another set worth roughly the same amount. These transactions were significant for both insiders.
Raymond James & Associates, Dimensional Fund Advisors LP, and MetLife Investment Management LLC are two institutional investors that have modified their holdings in Bill.com Holdings Inc. during Q1. Raymond James & Associates increased its stake in shares of Bill.com Holdings Inc by 3.8% during the first quarter, acquiring an additional 306 shares and now owning over 8K shares valued at $1.9M. Dimensional Fund Advisors LP and MetLife Investment Management LLC also modified their holdings in $BILL, buying several thousand shares worth $30M and $1.3M, respectively.
Overall, analysts have noted growth potential for Bill.com as interest in digitizing and automating business operations continues to surge globally. According to Bloomberg, the company presently has a consensus rating of “Moderate Buy” with a price target of just over $140 per share – highlighting continued investor momentum headed into Q2 and beyond.
| 1,682,919,318
|
2023-05-01 05:35:18
|
Ben_aid
| 6
| 0
| 0.81
|
Company Discussion
|
/r/stocks/comments/134dq26/billcom_holdings_inc_bill_target_price_was/
|
https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/134dq26/billcom_holdings_inc_bill_target_price_was/
|
stocks
|
3m
|
130tscl
|
TDOC Earnings Report
|
[https://s21.q4cdn.com/672268105/files/doc\_financials/2023/q1/Teladoc-Q1-2023-EPR-Final.pdf](https://s21.q4cdn.com/672268105/files/doc_financials/2023/q1/Teladoc-Q1-2023-EPR-Final.pdf)
TDOC reported earnings yesterday. The results seem much more solid than the past few. Some highlights:
* Revenue: $629.2m, +11% Year over Year
* Net Loss: $69.2m, $0.42/share (year-over-year is meaningless because of the goodwill losses the past couple years - happy to finally see this missing).
* Adjusted EBITDA: $52.7m, -3% Year over Year
**Revenue split into segments:**
* Teladoc Health Integrated Care: $350.0m, +5%
* BetterHelp: $279.3m, +21%
**Net Loss: ($0.42) per share**
* Stock based compensation: $0.28 per share
* Restructuring costs: $0.05 per share (primarily due to severance from layoffs in January)
* Amortization of acquired intangibles: $0.31 per share
**Adjusted EBITDA**
* Overall: $52.8m (-3% year-over-year)
* Integrated Care: $35.1m (+51% year-over-year)
* BetterHelp: $17.6m (-41% year-over-year)
**Operating Metrics:**
* U.S. Integrated Care Members: 84.9m, +7%
* BetterHelp Paying Users: 0.467m, +22%
* Chronic Care Program Enrollment: 1.028m, +13%
\----
Stock based compensation tends to be front-loaded into the first quarter pretty heavily and those severance packages should mostly be a one time hit; imo: this looks like a great build up for next quarter.
| 1,682,611,800
|
2023-04-27 16:10:00
|
mrdhood
| 27
| 0
| 0.85
| null |
/r/stocks/comments/130tscl/tdoc_earnings_report/
|
https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/130tscl/tdoc_earnings_report/
|
stocks
|
3m
|
12yhs2y
|
(4/25) Tuesday's Pre-Market Stock Movers & News
|
#Good morning traders and investors of the r/stocks sub! Welcome to the new trading day and a fresh start! Here are your pre-market stock movers & news on this Tuesday, April the 25th, 2023-
*****
# [Stock futures dip as traders pore through key earnings reports: Live updates](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/24/stock-market-today-live-updates.html)
*****
> U.S. stock futures slipped Tuesday as traders assessed the latest quarterly figures from several major companies.
*****
> Dow Jones Industrial Average futures fell 87 points, or 0.3%. S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 futures dipped 0.4% each.
*****
> Shares of First Republic Bank slid more than 20% after the regional bank posted its latest quarterly results. The bank said late Monday that deposits dropped 40% to $104.5 billion in the first quarter but have since stabilized.
*****
> First Republic will also be trimming expenses, including slashing headcount by 20% to 25% in the second quarter. The regional bank has been closely followed after investors grew concerned it could face the same fate as Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank, whose closures set off an industry crisis last month. First Republic shares have fallen more than 86% so far this year.
*****
> UPS dropped almost 5% on the back of quarterly results that missed Wall Street’s expectations. PepsiCo, General Motors and McDonald’s, meanwhile, were up on better-than-expected numbers.
*****
> Amazon and Microsoft are slated to report Tuesday, the first of multiple Big Tech names on the earnings schedule this week.
*****
> Bill Northey, U.S. Bank Wealth Management’s senior investment director, anticipates companies reporting decreased growth momentum as 2023 progresses.
*****
> “We’re looking for signs of deterioration, or alternatively health revenues, margins and ultimately earnings — and importantly, earnings guidance as we progress through the balance of the year. The expectation is for slower levels of growth as the year progresses. And those items as well as the broader macro factors will influence largely how portfolios are positioned,” Northey said.
*****
> “We entered 2023 with a modestly defensive portfolio orientation,” he continued, noting that he has not made any material changes to his positioning.
*****
> “The fundamental factors underpinning our more cautious and defensive positioning remain in place,” said Northey. “And that is slowing growth, a more restrictive set of central bank policies and expectation that as we move through this year, that growth will slow sufficiently and inflation will come under control sufficiently that the Federal Reserve will be able to pause the rate hike cycle and respond to the resultant pace of economic growth.”
*****
> Investors on Tuesday will get a gauge on the state of the housing prices through the new home sales numbers in March, as well as the S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index data for February. Consumer confidence data for April will also be released.
*****
> Wall Street is coming off a mixed session, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite losing 0.3% on. Meanwhile, the Dow rose by 66.44 points, or 0.2%, while the S&P 500 ticked up 0.09%.
*****
#STOCK FUTURES CURRENTLY:
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR STOCK FUTURES CHARTS!](https://finviz.com/futures.ashx)**)
*****
#YESTERDAY'S MARKET MAP:
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR YESTERDAY'S MARKET MAP!](https://i.imgur.com/J4b3dWU.png)**)
*****
#TODAY'S MARKET MAP:
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR TODAY'S MARKET MAP!](https://finviz.com/map.ashx?t=sec_all)**)
*****
#YESTERDAY'S S&P SECTORS:
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR YESTERDAY'S S&P SECTORS CHART!](https://i.imgur.com/zkv9ucy.png)**)
*****
#TODAY'S S&P SECTORS:
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR TODAY'S S&P SECTORS CHART!](https://finviz.com/groups.ashx)**)
*****
#TODAY'S ECONOMIC CALENDAR:
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR TODAY'S ECONOMIC CALENDAR!](https://i.imgur.com/sSSEQbz.png)**)
*****
#THIS WEEK'S ECONOMIC CALENDAR:
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR THIS WEEK'S ECONOMIC CALENDAR!](https://i.imgur.com/g7rVv6a.png)**)
*****
#THIS WEEK'S UPCOMING IPO'S:
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR THIS WEEK'S UPCOMING IPO'S!](https://i.imgur.com/AvWwFap.png)**)
*****
#THIS WEEK'S EARNINGS CALENDAR:
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR THIS WEEK'S EARNINGS CALENDAR!](https://i.imgur.com/Ky9YilO.png)**)
*****
#THIS MORNING'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS CALENDAR:
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR THIS MORNING'S EARNINGS CALENDAR!](https://i.imgur.com/crstbh7.png)**)
*****
#EARNINGS RELEASES BEFORE THE OPEN TODAY:
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR THIS MORNING'S EARNINGS RELEASES LINK #1!](https://i.imgur.com/XylCixc.png)**)
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR THIS MORNING'S EARNINGS RELEASES LINK #2!](https://i.imgur.com/aP8JOCq.png)**)
*****
#THIS AFTERNOON'S AFTER-HOURS EARNINGS CALENDAR:
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR THIS AFTERNOON'S EARNINGS CALENDAR!]()**)
(N/A.)
*****
#EARNINGS RELEASES AFTER THE CLOSE TODAY:
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR THIS AFTERNOON'S EARNINGS RELEASES LINK #1!](https://i.imgur.com/UjZmpgB.png)**)
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR THIS AFTERNOON'S EARNINGS RELEASES LINK #2!](https://i.imgur.com/8XxYML0.png)**)
*****
#YESTERDAY'S ANALYST UPGRADES/DOWNGRADES:
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR YESTERDAY'S ANALYST UPGRADES/DOWNGRADES LINK #1!](https://i.imgur.com/3AoaoGF.png)**)
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR YESTERDAY'S ANALYST UPGRADES/DOWNGRADES LINK #2!](https://i.imgur.com/goyWBy3.png)**)
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR YESTERDAY'S ANALYST UPGRADES/DOWNGRADES LINK #3!](https://i.imgur.com/VoMniyO.png)**)
*****
#YESTERDAY'S INSIDER TRADING FILINGS:
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR YESTERDAY'S INSIDER TRADING FILINGS!](https://i.imgur.com/pjGSnBS.png)**)
*****
#TODAY'S DIVIDEND CALENDAR:
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR TODAY'S DIVIDEND CALENDAR!](https://i.imgur.com/pw8t4G3.png)**)
*****
#THIS MORNING'S STOCK NEWS MOVERS:
######(**source: [cnbc.com](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/25/stocks-making-the-biggest-moves-premarket-nvs-jblu-mmm.html)**)
*****
> **First Republic Bank** — The San Francisco-based regional bank plunged after it said Monday that deposits fell by 40% to $104.5 billion during the first quarter, which came out worse than Wall Street’s expectations. First Republic said that its deposit flows have since stabilized. The stock was down nearly 22% in early morning trading and has declined by 86.6% so far this year. On Tuesday, Janney downgraded First Republic to sell from neutral and lowered its price target on the stock to $8 from $10, implying a 50% downside from Monday’s closing price.
> #**STOCK SYMBOL:** FRC
> * [CLICK HERE FOR CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=FRC&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)
> ######(**[CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!](http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/FRC)**)
*****
> **UPS** — UPS shares fell 1.6%after the shipping giant reported quarterly results that missed analyst expectations. The company earned an adjusted $2.20 per share on revenue of $22.93 billion. Analysts expected earnings of $2.21 per share on revenue of $23.01 billion, according to Refinitiv.
> #**STOCK SYMBOL:** UPS
> * [CLICK HERE FOR CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=UPS&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)
> ######(**[CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!](http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/UPS)**)
*****
> **3M** — The industrial stock added 1.3% before the opening bell. 3M reported $1.97 in earnings per share, higher than analysts expectations of $1.58 from FactSet. The Minnesota-based company announced it would cut about 6,000 positions globally in efforts to focus on high-growth markets such as automotive electrification and home improvement, while prioritizing emerging growth areas such as climate technology and semiconductors.
> #**STOCK SYMBOL:** MMM
> * [CLICK HERE FOR CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=MMM&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)
> ######(**[CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!](http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/MMM)**)
*****
> **McDonald’s** — Shares advanced less than 1% after the company beat Wall Street expectations for the first quarter. The company reported $2.63 in adjusted earnings per share on $5.9 billion in revenue. Analysts polled by Refinitiv expected $2.33 in per-share earnings and $5.59 billion in revenue. The stock was recently up 9.8%.
> #**STOCK SYMBOL:** MCD
> * [CLICK HERE FOR CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=MCD&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)
> ######(**[CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!](http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/MCD)**)
*****
> **General Motors** — Shares gained 2.1% after General Motors raised its key guidance for 2023 and reported first-quarter earnings that beat Wall Street’s top- and bottom-line forecasts. The company reported $39.99 billion in revenue, higher than $38.96 billion according to Refinitiv data. Adjusted earnings came in at $2.21 per share, above the consensus estimate of $1.73. General Motors and Samsung SDI are also expected to announce as early as Tuesday that they plan to build a joint battery manufacturing plant in the U.S.
> #**STOCK SYMBOL:** GM
> * [CLICK HERE FOR CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=GM&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)
> ######(**[CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!](http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/GM)**)
*****
> **JetBlue** — The stock popped more than 2.3% in the premarket after the airline forecasted a “solidly profitable” second quarter due to strong travel demand. For the first quarter, JetBlue posted a 34 cents loss, less than the 39 cents expected, per Refinitiv.
> #**STOCK SYMBOL:** JBLU
> * [CLICK HERE FOR CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=JBLU&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)
> ######(**[CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!](http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/JBLU)**)
*****
> **Packaging Corp of America** — Shares fell 6.8% after the company reported an adjusted profit per share of $2.20, which came in below a StreetAccount forecast of $2.27 per share. The company’s second-quarter guidance also missed expectations.
> #**STOCK SYMBOL:** PKG
> * [CLICK HERE FOR CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=PKG&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)
> ######(**[CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!](http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/PKG)**)
*****
> **Novartis** — Shares of the pharmaceutical company added more than 3% after it raised its full-year earnings outlook, saying it expects sales to grow by mid-single digits. Novartis reported earnings per share of $1.71 on $12.95 billion in revenue, topping analysts’ expectations of $1.54 per share on $12.52 billion in revenue.
> #**STOCK SYMBOL:** NVS
> * [CLICK HERE FOR CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=NVS&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)
> ######(**[CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!](http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/NVS)**)
*****
> **PepsiCo** — Shares of the beverage and snacks giant climbed nearly 1.6% in premarket trading after it posted earnings and revenue that topped Wall Street’s expectations. PepsiCo also raised its outlook on the full year. The company said first-quarter revenue totaled $17.85 billion, surpassing the $17.22 billion consensus estimate of analysts polled by Refinitiv. PepsiCo reported earnings per share of $1.50, topping analysts’ expectations of $1.39.
> #**STOCK SYMBOL:** PEP
> * [CLICK HERE FOR CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=PEP&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)
> ######(**[CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!](http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/PEP)**)
*****
#**FULL DISCLOSURE:**
> /u/bigbear0083 has no positions in any stocks mentioned. Reddit, moderators, and the author do not advise making investment decisions based on discussion in these posts. Analysis is not subject to validation and users take action at their own risk.
*****
#**DISCUSS!**
What's on everyone's radar for today's trading day ahead here at r/stocks?
*****
# **I hope you all have an excellent trading day ahead today on this Tuesday, April 25th, 2023! :)**
| 1,682,425,280
|
2023-04-25 12:21:20
|
bigbear0083
| 12
| 0
| 0.79
| null |
/r/stocks/comments/12yhs2y/425_tuesdays_premarket_stock_movers_news/
|
https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/12yhs2y/425_tuesdays_premarket_stock_movers_news/
|
stocks
|
3m
|
12bm0d5
|
stocks dip after JOLTS report below 10m jobs, first time since May 2021
|
[source](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-04-03/stock-market-today-dow-s-p-live-updates)
I think it's exaggerated reaction, although it is only a small reaction major indexes are around 0.5% loss, but the trajectory is downward, so we might see larger losses for today, also volatility is rising.
9.9m job openings is still a lot of jobs.
At 3.8% unemployment and [the civilian labor force](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t01.htm) is 166m, so that means 6.3m ppl looking for work and 3.9m excess job openings (BLS actually says that only 5.1m want a job meaning 4.8m excess job openings which is even better).
| 1,680,621,046
|
2023-04-04 15:10:46
|
provoko
| 26
| 3
| 0.85
|
Industry News
|
/r/stocks/comments/12bm0d5/stocks_dip_after_jolts_report_below_10m_jobs/
|
https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/12bm0d5/stocks_dip_after_jolts_report_below_10m_jobs/
|
stocks
|
3m
|
11o4qzw
|
Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning March 13th, 2023
|
Good Friday evening to all of you here on r/stocks! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this week, and are ready for the new trading week ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning March 13th, 2023.
# **Dow closes more than 300 points lower, posts worst week since June as Silicon Valley Bank collapse sparks selloff: Live updates - [(Source)](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/09/stock-market-today-live-updates.html)**
*****
> Stocks tumbled Friday as tech-focused lender Silicon Valley Bank shut down following losses in its bond portfolio, prompting the biggest bank failure since the global financial crisis and sending shockwaves through the banking sector.
*****
> The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped for a fourth consecutive day, finishing 345.22 points lower, or 1.07%, to close at 31,909.64. The S&P 500 lost 1.45% to settle at 3,861.59. The Nasdaq Composite shed 1.76% to end at 11,138.89.
*****
> All the major averages capped off the week with losses. The Dow fell 4.44% to post its worst weekly performance since June. The S&P dropped 4.55%, while the Nasdaq lost 4.71%.
*****
> Regulators took control of Silicon Valley Bank on Friday, after shares tumbled Thursday and the bank struggled on Friday to find another company to buy it. Regional bank stocks tumbled in the wake of Silicon Valley Bank’s demise, with the SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF lost nearly 4.4%. For the week, the regional bank fund lost about 16%, its worst week since March 2020 as the pandemic hit.
*****
> “You had a major U.S. bank collapse, the biggest bank failure since 2008, inevitably that’s going to spook the market,” said Sylvia Jablonski, CEO and chief investment officer of Defiance ETFs. The failure, she added, is also fueling concern among investors over whether the contagion spreads beyond SVB.
*****
> Several bank stocks were repeatedly halted on Friday, including First Republic, PacWest and c/rypto-focused Signature Bank. First Republic dropped 14.8%, and PacWest shed 37.9%. Some bellwether bank stocks suffered smaller losses even as SVB’s fallout wreaked havoc on regional names. Goldman Sachs and Bank of America fell 4.2% and 0.9% respectively. JPMorgan held onto a 2.5% gain.
*****
> “This is gamebook play, where traders and shorter term investors don’t want to be long over the weekend,” said Rich Steinberg, chief market strategist at The Colony Group.
*****
> The turmoil among bank stocks overshadowed a February jobs report, which gave some hints that inflation could be slowing. Payrolls increased more than expected, but investors focused on the smaller-than-expected gain in wages, which may cause the Federal Reserve to rethink its aggressive stance on rate hikes.
*****
# **This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:**
###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!](https://i.imgur.com/4cXeQ7w.png))**
# **S&P Sectors for this past week:**
###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!](https://i.imgur.com/JyDJSE5.png))**
# **Major Indices for this past week:**
###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!](https://i.imgur.com/Lhh6XPf.png))**
# **Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:**
###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!](https://i.imgur.com/P6TdnTu.png))**
# **Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:**
###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!](https://i.imgur.com/txxF4eq.png))**
# **Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:**
###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://i.imgur.com/IC6C8yi.png))**
# **S&P Sectors for the Past Week:**
###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://i.imgur.com/7SBc0QC.png))**
# **Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:**
###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://i.imgur.com/osQiPWy.png))**
# **Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:**
###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://i.imgur.com/pjcSQaB.png))**
# **Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:**
###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://i.imgur.com/697Z91K.png))**
# **Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:**
###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://i.imgur.com/dZlNPqB.png))**
# **Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:**
###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!](https://i.imgur.com/7icyoPG.png))**
###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!](https://i.imgur.com/DJIV7Wz.png))**
*****
> # Payrolls Strong but Unemployment Rises: All Mixed Up
> Another month, another solid employment report. Employment rose by 311,000 in February, on the back of 504,000 in January and 239,000 in December. It’s certainly been a warm winter. This is the labor market that refuses to give in, despite the Fed throwing almost 500 bps (5%-points) of rate hikes at it and gearing up for more.
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://www.carsongroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/Blog-2023-03-10-payrolls-1202x1600.png))**
> # But the unemployment rate rose …
> Yes, the unemployment rate rose to 3.6%, up from 3.4% in January. However, that was entirely for positive reasons.
> The unemployment rate, as the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) measures it, is the number of people unemployed who are looking for work divided by the size of the labor force. Last month, the number of unemployed people that are looking for work rose by about 240,000. However, that’s because 419,000 people “entered” the labor force, i.e., started looking for work. That’s a sign of a healthy labor market. People will start looking for work only if they think they can get a job.
> The labor force measure has issues related to how participation is measured – they count someone as being in the labor force only if someone is looking for work. But a lot of people may not do so for any number of reasons, including not feeling confident in the job market or non-economic reasons like not having access to childcare. The measure also can fall over time because of a lot of retiring baby-boomers.
> One way to get around these issues is to look at the employment-population ratio for prime age workers, i.e., workers aged 25-54 years. This measures the number of people working as a percent of the civilian population – think of it as the opposite of the unemployment rate, and because we use prime age, you get around the demographic issue as well.
> The good news is that the prime-age employment-population ratio just hit 80.5%, which is close to the highest level we’ve seen in a couple of decades.
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://www.carsongroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/Blog-2023-03-10-e-pop-ratio-1203x1600.png))**
> It helps to recall that we just had a multi-generational black swan event in the form of a pandemic. But once everything re-opened, the expectation was that things would bounce back immediately. And a lot of numbers did, including GDP, employment, and consumption.
> However, there were also a lot of people who left the labor force amid the pandemic. And what we’re seeing now is that each month there’s a continuous flow of people back into the labor force, and these people are finding jobs quickly. Just over the past six months, 1.5 million more people have come into the labor force as prospects for finding a job improve.
> Make no mistake, this is a really strong labor market in my opinion.
> # Is the labor market too strong?
> It’s weird to even ask that question, but it matters for the Federal Reserve. In their model for the economy, they see a tight labor market as one that results in stronger wage growth. And strong wage growth can drive demand higher, pushing up prices and inflation.
> Well, hopefully, they can rest a little easy on that front. Average hourly earnings rose just 0.2% in February. Over the past three months, wages have been growing at an annualized pace of 3.6%, well below the 6%+ pace we saw last year. It’s getting very close to the pre-pandemic pace of 3.1%.
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://www.carsongroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/Blog-2023-03-10-ahe-3m-change-1212x1600.png))**
> This backs up other evidence that wage growth is indeed easing, including the Employment Cost Index, which is the gold standard of wage growth measures. The ECI was running at an annualized pace of 4.2% in Q4 2022, down from 4.8% in Q3. The January-February hourly earnings data suggest that wage growth continues to decelerate.
> The big question is whether the Fed buys this. Powell’s comments this week in front of Congress did not inspire confidence. It looks like a string of hot economic data has left them questioning their decision to ease the pace of rate increases from 50 bps to 25 bps (as of February) – and wondering if they should move that back up to 50 bps at their March meeting. At this point, markets think the outcome is a coin toss, which is not great as Powell simply injected maximum uncertainty into markets.
> But looking beyond the Fed’s March meeting, the big picture is that the labor market appears to remain really strong. This means the economy also remains strong, and that’s not a bad thing as far as markets are concerned. Though it also means the Fed is likely to keep interest rates higher for longer.
*****
> # Panic! At the Fed?
> Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s comments this week during his semi-annual testimony in front of Congress did not inspire much confidence with respect to the path for monetary policy. It seems like Fed officials’ are confused as to what they want to do next.
> Case in point: last month, Powell said that the “disinflationary process has started.”
> Since then, we’ve had a run of strong economic data, including January payrolls, retail sales, and inflation. And it looks like that was enough to spook the Fed. The shift was clear in Powell’s statements this week:
> “Inflationary pressures are running higher than expected at the time of our previous Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.”
> And
> “The ultimate level of interest rates is likely to be higher than previously anticipated.”
> At the same time, he also said:
> “If – and I stress that no decision has been made on this — if the totality of the data were to indicate that faster tightening is warranted, we would be prepared to increase the pace of rate hikes.”
> Markets were clearly taken aback by his comments, with equities falling 1.5% on Tuesday (March 7th) and rate hike expectations rising.
> This becomes clear if you look at expectations for their March meeting. Last Friday, markets were expecting a 0.25% increase in the federal funds rate, pricing the probability of that at 72%.
> That’s shifted significantly since Powell’s comments this week. Investors moved the probability of a 0.25% increase down to 28%, and the probability of a 0.50% increase rose to almost 80%.
> This is a huge shift, especially this close to a meeting. Typically, the couple of weeks prior to the meeting is a “quiet period,” where Fed officials don’t give speeches or comments, i.e., anything that may lead to a shift in expectations. The last time this happened was in June 2022, when the Wall Street Journal reported that the Fed was considering raising rates by 0.75% instead of the 0.50% they guided markets toward.
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://www.carsongroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/Blog-2023-03-09-March-rate-hike-expectations-1202x1600.png))**
> # There’s not much reason to panic
> To be clear, the January data was hotter than expected. But this is just one month of data and is likely a rebound from the relatively soft December data (which, at the time, led to increased recession calls) and perhaps positive weather-related effects.
> We’re yet to get February data, but it’s hard to believe the string of hot data continues into February and March.
> Take vehicle sales, for example. Sales surged 19% in January to a 15.9 million annualized pace, the highest since May 2021. But sales pulled back to 14.9 million in February. So the trend is still positive, but nothing suggests that the economy is overheating to the extent that the Fed has to up-end market expectations for upcoming policy.
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://www.carsongroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/Blog-2023-03-09-auto-sales.png))**
> The Carson Investment Research team has been in the camp that the economy will avoid a recession this year. As we’ve discussed before, we believe consumers are in good shape, and real incomes are rising, which should keep consumption humming along.
> This gets to the point that we don’t see the Fed cutting rates any time soon. Expectations for the terminal rate, i.e., the highest rate the Fed will get to, also rose this week. At the beginning of the year, investors expected the terminal rate to end up around 4.9%. That’s now increased to about 5.6% on the back of strong economic data.
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://www.carsongroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/Blog-2023-03-09-rate-expectations-1202x1600.png))**
> The good news is that, at the end of the day, positive economic data is positive. This perhaps explains why equities have remained resilient this year. The S&P 500 is up just under 4% year-to-date, despite rate expectations repricing higher.
> That’s a big shift from last year and a positive one. And we believe equities have the potential to remain resilient, even as the economic data (and the Fed) swing back and forth.
*****
> # This Doesn't Happen Often
> After a surge earlier this week that took the yield on the two-year US Treasury up above 5% for the first time since 2007, concerns over the health of bank balance sheets have caused a sharp reversal lower. From a closing high of 5.07% on Wednesday, the yield on the two-year US Treasury has plummeted to 4.62% and is on pace for its largest two-day decline since September 2008. Remember that?
> A 45 basis point (bps) two-day decline in the two-year yield has been extremely uncommon over the last 46 years. Of the 79 prior occurrences, two-thirds occurred during recessions, and the only times that a move of this magnitude did not occur either within six months before or after a recession were during the crash of 1987 (10/19 and 10/20) as well as 10/13/89 when the leveraged buyout of United Airlines fell through, resulting in a collapse of the junk bond market. As you can see from the New York Times headline the day after that 1989 plunge, just as investors are worrying today over whether we're in for a repeat of the Financial Crisis, back then they were looking at 'troubling similarities' to the 1987 crash. The year that followed the October 1989 decline wasn't a particularly positive period for equities, but a repeat of anything close to the 1987 crash never materialized.
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2023/03/031023-Two-Year-ROC.png))**
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE IMAGE!](https://media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2023/03/031023-NYT.png))**
*****
> # 50-DMAs Couldn't Hold
> Worries about banks today left major US index ETFs across the market cap spectrum back below their 50-day moving averages. The uptrend channels that have been formed over the last six months are also getting tested with this week's move lower. You can see the current set-ups in the snapshot from our Chart Scanner tool below.
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2023/03/50days.png))**
> Looking at our Trend Analyzer, every sector ETF except for Technology has now moved back below its 50-day moving average. Six of eleven sectors are actually oversold (>1 standard deviation below 50-DMA), with Financials (XLF) and Health Care (XLV) at "extreme oversold" levels. XLF had been up more than 8% on the year about a month ago, but it's now down 1.93% YTD.
> Technology (XLK) and Utilities (XLU) are the only two sectors up over the last week. Interestingly, Utilities (XLU) has been one of the worst performing sectors so far this year, while Tech has been the best.
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2023/03/ussectoretfs.png))**
> With Financials seeing such a sharp decline this week, below is a snapshot of various banks and brokers in the sector with the ones highlighted in red all now trading at least 5% below their 50-DMA. As shown, Charles Schwab (SCHW) is down the most over the last week with a decline of 12.6%, which has left it 16.4% below its 50-DMA and down nearly 20% on the year. Other names like Bank of America (BAC), JP Morgan (JPM), and Raymond James (RJF) are in extreme oversold territory as well. Of the major banks and brokers listed, Goldman Sachs (GS) has actually held up the best over the last week with a decline of just 2%.
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2023/03/banksbrokers.png))**
*****
> # Bearish Sentiment Remains
> The S&P 500's swings higher and then lower over the past week have left sentiment little changed. For the American Association of Individual Investors' (AAII) weekly survey, 24.8% of respondents reporting as bullish compared to 23.4% the previous week. That is the second higher reading in a row but still well below the recent high of 37.5% from one month ago.
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2023/03/030923-AAII-1.png))**
> Along with a modest bounce in bullishness, bearish sentiment has taken a modest decline falling from a recent high of 44.8% last week down to 41.7% today. That is the first decline in a month, leaving it in the middle of its range since the start of last year.
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2023/03/030923-AAII-2.png))**
> Given the moves in bullish and bearish sentiment, the bull-bear spread remains skewed in favor of bears for the third week in a row.
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2023/03/030923-AAII-3.png))**
> Following a sharp eight percentage point decline last week, neutral sentiment has bounced rising to 33.4%. Albeit higher, outside of last week, that reading would be the lowest since the end of 2022.
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2023/03/030923-AAII-4.png))**
> Although recent weeks have seen the AAII survey return to deeply bearish sentiment, other surveys are not nearly as pessimistic. While the AAII survey's bull-bear spread sits well over a standard deviation below its historical average, the NAAIM Exposure index continues to show only modestly long positioning among active managers. Currently, that reading is 0.2 standard deviations below the historical norm. Meanwhile, the weekly Investors Intelligence survey is actually showing respondents are reporting as more bullish than has been historically normal.
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2023/03/030923-AAII-5.png))**
*****
> # A Closer Look at Seasonality
> We talked a lot about how February (especially the second half of February) could be a potential break for stocks, well the good news is that we now see many signs of better times potentially coming soon.
> Here’s what the average year for the S&P 500 looks like. Looking at the chart below, the blue line shows gains from January through April, and November and December are normal. It is the middle part of the year that stocks tend to struggle.
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://www.carsongroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/blog-164.png))**
> Lately, things look a little different. Looking at only the past 20 years showed that stocks tended to bottom in March. This is likely due to major bear market lows taking place during this month in 2003, 2009, and 2020.
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://www.carsongroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/blog-273.jpg))**
> We’ve shared before that pre-election years tend to be strong for stocks, lower only twice going back to World War II and up nearly 17% on average, making this historically the strongest year of the 4-year Presidential cycle. Looking at these years it is once again common to see the second half of February weakness and a tradeable low in late February.
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://www.carsongroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/blog-321.jpg))**
> Building on this, we found that pre-election years of a new President do even better, up close to 20% on average. But wouldn’t you know it, right about now tended to be a consolidation period before late March and April strength.
> What about years that started off with big gains? When stocks gained more than 5% in January (like 2023) we found that a consolidation period took place now and into April. The good news is that eventual gains of close to 23% on average were how things ended up, suggesting any potential consolidation here could potentially be used as an opportunity.
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://www.carsongroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/blog-599.png))**
> Lastly, I’ve seen other places combine many of the things I’ve just discussed and make one composite combining them all. I did that and we called it the Carson Cycle Composite. This proprietary composite looks at the average year, pre-election years, pre-election years under a new President, the past 20 years, and years that had a 5% January. As you can see, this year started off stronger, but as of early March is right in line with what the average composite looks like. Take note, a gain of 15.6% is what has been the average Carson Cycle Composite.
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://www.carsongroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/blog-640.png))**
> The bottom line is many cycles suggest the potential for some type of a consolidation here and now would be perfectly normal, but the likelihood of strength before the end of the year is quite strong.
*****
Here are the most notable companies reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
*****
> (*T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.*)
*****
###### **([CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!](https://i.imgur.com/697Z91K.png))**
###### **([CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!](https://i.imgur.com/25PzLoS.png))**
###### **([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!](https://i.imgur.com/cTzzeKU.jpg))**
*****
> # (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)
**(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)** (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).
> #([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://charts.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=SPY&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l))
*****
# DISCUSS!
What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?
*****
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead r/stocks. :)
| 1,678,491,871
|
2023-03-10 23:44:31
|
bigbear0083
| 17
| 1
| 0.84
| null |
/r/stocks/comments/11o4qzw/wall_street_week_ahead_for_the_trading_week/
|
https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/11o4qzw/wall_street_week_ahead_for_the_trading_week/
|
stocks
|
3m
|
117ibgr
|
TakeTwo stock analysis and valuation - How Zynga distorts the financials
|
This post is a summary of my analysis of Take-Two (Ticker symbol: $TTWO). I hope you enjoy reading it and feel free to add your take and agree/disagree with what's mentioned below.
​
The article is divided into the following sections:
* Introduction & Fundamental analysis of the business.
* Historical financial performance
* The Zynga acquisition
* The balance sheet
* Assumptions & valuation
* Valuation based on assumptions different than mine
​
**Introduction & Fundamental analysis of the business**
Take-Two is a video game company that grows primarily through acquisitions. It owns well-positioned, well-known IPs, such as Grand Theft Auto, Red Dead Redemption, NBA 2K, Civilization, Mafia, Max Payne, and many more.
In 2022, the company acquired Zynga, a company that owned a significant number of top mobile games, which fits well into Take-Two's portfolio.
Obviously, one of the big risks that come with every gaming company is, what if the next sequel of a popular game disappoints? What if the next Civilization isn't a big hit, what if the next Grand Theft Auto fails to meet the expectations of the gamers? Although Take-Two isn't immune to this risk, owning a large number of popular games allows them to diversify this risk to a large extent. If we take a look at Activision for example, a giant in the industry, the conclusion would be different as 3 of the franchises (Call of Duty, World of Warcraft, and Candy Crush) bring roughly 3/4 of the total revenue.
​
**Historical financial performance**
Before we move into the financials, it is important to note that the fiscal year of Take-two ends on March 31st. Hence, the fiscal year 2022 starts on April 1st, 2021, and ends on March 31st, 2022.
At the moment of this writing, the last publicly available report is as of December 31st, 2022, so LTM (last twelve months) is referring to the calendar year 2022.
The company's revenue grew 16% CAGR over the last 5 years, and a significant portion of this is coming from acquisitions. As Zynga was acquired in 2022, the full effect of its revenue isn't reflected in the financials yet. Its revenues for the LTM were $4,8 billion.
The gross margin has improved over the last 5 years from 43% to slightly over 50%. However, if we take all the operating expenses into account (Sales & Marketing, General & Administrative, Research & Development as well as Depreciation and amortization), it seems as if something is going wrong.
The operating margin was fluctuating between 8 and 19%, until the Zynga acquisition. Suddenly, the profitability is down to roughly 0%. To better understand this, we need to look into the Zynga acquisition.
​
**The Zynga acquisition**
The consideration for this acquisition was $9,5 billion:
\- 46.3m shares of Take-Two ($5,4 billion)
\- Cash ($4 billion)
\- Equity awards ($0,1 billion)
​
The expected outcome of this acquisition by the management is as follows:
1. Revenue synergies of over $500m
2. Cost synergies of over $100m in the first 2 years
3. 14% revenue growth in the next 3 years
​
When there's an acquisition, the acquiring company doesn't just take over what's on the balance sheet of the acquiree. Instead, there's an entire valuation and purchase price allocation process that takes place.
Let me elaborate: The accounting standards have very strict rules for recognizing (capitalizing) internally generated intangible assets (such as brands, trade names, etc.). The main reason is, if this is allowed, most companies would do that, which means instead of recognizing an expense, the capital used would be on the balance sheet (amortized over time), and the profitability of the business would be overstated, and would not reflect the actual performance.
However, when an acquisition happens, that's when the intangible assets that have been generated in the past are valued and recognized.
Because of this acquisition, Take-Two recognized intangible assets of $5,5 billion, in addition to the goodwill of $6.2 billion.
What this means is, all of these intangible assets (excl. the goodwill) will now be amortized and part of Take-Two's income statement, decreasing its operating profit by $700m per year and is the explanation for the significant decrease in the operating margin. However, this is a non-cash expense. Take-two has already paid for this in the past, so from a cash point of view, it doesn't exist.
Let's take a look at how Take-Two (with and without Zynga) compares to the key competitors:
​
|Company|Gross margin|S&M expenses|G&A expenses|R&D expenses|Total operating expenses|Operating margin|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|Take-Two|55%|15%|15%|10%|40%|15%|
|Zynga|64%|34%|7%|20%|61%|3%|
|Take-Two (/w Zynga)|56%|23%|18%|15%|56%|0%|
|Activision|71%|14%|10%|15%|39%|32%|
|Nintendo|55%|7%|7%|6%|20%|35%|
|EA Sports|74%|13%|11%|30%|54%|20%|
The explanation above also helps understand why Take-Two with Zynga has significantly worse margins than the two companies separately.
**The balance sheet**
Looking at the financial position, Take-Two has a fairly stable cash position of over $800m, but it rarely holds a significant amount of excess cash. After the acquisition of Zynga, the intangible assets make up roughly 3/4 of the entire balance sheet.
On the other side of the balance sheet, the company has a low level of debt ($1,7 billion, including leases) and it doesn't seem to be interested in increasing its financial leverage significantly.
​
**Assumptions & Valuation**
​
To value Take-two, there are two main inputs required: Revenue growth over time & Operating margin. Here are my assumptions:
**Revenue growth:** 25% in year 1 (mainly driven by the Zynga acquisition), followed by 8% until year 5 and a decrease to 3.5% by year 10, this represents revenue growth of 114% in the next decade.
**Operating margin:** 16% for the next year, improving to 18% over time as synergies kick in.
**Discount rate (WACC-based)**: 7.78% increasing to 8.02% by year 10 (approaching a beta of 1, vs. the beta of 0.9 today)
Here's the outcome: The company's value is **$14.5b ($86/share).**
**Valuation based on assumptions different than mine**
If you have different assumptions regarding the revenue 10 years from now, as well as the operating margin, I hope the table below helps in valuing Take-two as a whole.
|Revenue / Op. margin|14%|18%|22%|26%|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|100% ($9,7b)|$52.0|$79.6|$105.8|$128.0|
|114% ($10,3b)|$56.6|$86.2|$114.2|$137.9|
|150% ($12,1b)|$64.9|$98.9|$131.2|$159.0|
|200% ($14,5b)|$76.2|$116.1|$154.4|$187.6|
As with any other company, there is a wide range of outcomes. Personally, I think the company is doing well and I'd love to own shares sometime in the future, but not at today's price.
If Take-two increases its margins significantly and moves closer to Activision/Nintendo, the company could be undervalued at today's price.
One important topic to mention is GTA6 as it is a game anticipated for quite a long period of time. Although its (lack of) success will have an impact on Take-two as a company, it is important to acknowledge that it is not the only game that's a cash cow, but it does represent a risk/opportunity in the short and medium-term.
| 1,676,921,918
|
2023-02-20 19:38:38
|
k_ristovski
| 80
| 22
| 0.9
|
Company Analysis
|
/r/stocks/comments/117ibgr/taketwo_stock_analysis_and_valuation_how_zynga/
|
https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/117ibgr/taketwo_stock_analysis_and_valuation_how_zynga/
|
stocks
|
3m
|
10sfmoz
|
ChatGPT investment portfolio
|
I asked ChatGPT to suggest an investment portfolio based on the criteria described below.
I am curious how well you guys think ChatGPT did. I am planning to invest a small amount of my fun money and see how it goes.
I took the criteria from a book summary video. I can provide a link to it if people are interested.
​
**Criteria:**
1. Conservatively financed, current ratio of at least 150%.
2. Dividend should have been paid in the last year.
3. No earnings deficit in the last 5 years.
4. Annually earnings growth >0% in the last 5 years.
5. Market cap is less then 1.2x all liabilities.
6. P/E < 15.
**Response:**
1. Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)
2. Procter & Gamble (PG)
3. Coca-Cola Co. (KO)
4. Walmart (WMT)
5. PepsiCo (PEP)
6. Microsoft (MSFT)
7. AT&T (T)
8. Verizon Communications (VZ)
9. 3M (MMM)
10. Walmart (WMT)
​
**Exact prompt was as follow:**
suggest an investing portfolio of 5 to 10 companies that best fit the following criteria: 1. Conservatively financed, current ratio of at least 150%. 2. dividend should have been paid in the last year. 3. no earnings deficit in the last 5 years. 4. annually earnings growth >0% in the last 5 years. 5. market cap is less then 1.2x all liabilities. 6. P/E < 15.
​
**Full response:**
Here are a few companies that meet your criteria:
1. Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)
2. Procter & Gamble (PG)
3. Coca-Cola Co. (KO)
4. Walmart (WMT)
5. PepsiCo (PEP)
6. Microsoft (MSFT)
7. AT&T (T)
8. Verizon Communications (VZ)
9. 3M (MMM)
10. Walmart (WMT)
Please note that these are not specific recommendations to buy these stocks and it's important to do your own research and consult a financial advisor before making any investment decisions. These companies were selected based on publicly available information and their meeting of the criteria listed, but other factors such as industry conditions and overall economic trends may also impact their performance.
| 1,675,414,152
|
2023-02-03 08:49:12
|
intothefray22
| 27
| 37
| 0.75
|
Resources
|
/r/stocks/comments/10sfmoz/chatgpt_investment_portfolio/
|
https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/10sfmoz/chatgpt_investment_portfolio/
|
stocks
|
3m
|
10lxfvq
|
Rockwell’s Blowout Earnings Show U.S. Manufacturing Is Strong
|
[https://www.barrons.com/articles/rockwell-automation-earnings-stock-price-51674738828](https://www.barrons.com/articles/rockwell-automation-earnings-stock-price-51674738828?mod=hp_LATEST)
Rockwell Automation quarterly earnings beat estimates as the benefits of reshoring manufacturing capacity and the rise of electric vehicles overwhelmed any headwinds from a [weakening economy](https://www.barrons.com/articles/manufacturing-ism-pmi-51672849942?mod=md_stockoverview_news&mod=article_inline).
Thursday, the industrial [automation](https://www.barrons.com/articles/robots-qutomation-stocks-invest-51671752135?mod=md_stockoverview_news&mod=article_inline) giant [reported](https://ir.rockwellautomation.com/press-releases/press-releases-details/2023/Rockwell-Automation-Reports-First-Quarter-2023-Results-Updates-Fiscal-2023-Guidance/default.aspx) fiscal first-quarter earnings per share of $2.46 from sales of $2 billion. Wall Street was looking for $1.88 a share and $1.9 billion in sales.
Looking ahead, Rockwelll expects comparable sales to grow between 11% and 15% in its fiscal 2023, which ends in September. Prior guidance indicated that sales would grow between 9% and 13%. The midpoint of Rockwell’s range of forecasts for earnings per share went to $11.10 from $10.60. Wall Street is projecting $10.70 a share.
“Our strong execution and continued focus on supply chain resiliency helped Rockwell exceed our expectations in the quarter, with earnings growing double digits year over year,” said CEO Blake Moret in the company’s news release. “In addition to a gradually improving supply chain environment, we are encouraged by the continued strength of our customers’ demand across all business segments and regions.”
Strength in businesses might sound surprising when industrial companies such as Dow **DOW** **–0.79%** (DOW) and 3M **MMM** (MMM) are [laying off](https://www.barrons.com/articles/dow-inc-earnings-job-cuts-51674733816?mod=article_inline) workers. But Rockwell is benefiting from several trends, including new semiconductor, electric vehicle, and EV battery manufacturing coming to the U.S. Rockwell’s automation hardware and software also helps manufacturing businesses become more efficient. That is something businesses are even more interested in when times are tough.
It isn’t all about EVs. “\[We’ve\] added enough mass to be relevant in information solutions and connected services,” Moret tells *Barron’s*. “\[We made\] additional acquisitions as well and so gave ourselves more ways to win.”
Annual recurring revenue, more characteristic of tech than industrial businesses, now represents about 8% of total sales at Rockwell. That revenue stream grew 14% year over year in the quarter.
The moderate rise in Rockwell stock may reflect it already trades at a premium to the market. Shares are trading for about 23 times estimated 2023 earnings, while the S&P 500 trades for about 16 times.
Rockwell stock has also had a solid start to the year. Coming into Thursday trading, Rockwell shares are up about 8% so far in 2023, and up 15% over the past three months.
| 1,674,754,457
|
2023-01-26 17:34:17
|
_hiddenscout
| 30
| 7
| 0.86
| null |
/r/stocks/comments/10lxfvq/rockwells_blowout_earnings_show_us_manufacturing/
|
https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/10lxfvq/rockwells_blowout_earnings_show_us_manufacturing/
|
stocks
|
3m
|
10k4ddf
|
3M Shares Drop After Q4 EPS Miss As Macro Headwinds Weigh; Downsizes Manufacturing Roles
|
* 3M Co (NYSE:MMM) reported fourth-quarter FY22 sales of $8.08 billion, a decline of 6% year-over-year, beating the consensus of $8.04 billion.
* Organic sales grew 0.4%, which included a 2.6% headwind from the combined impact of China's COVID-related lockdowns and decline in disposable respirator demand.
* Adjusted EPS of $2.28 missed the consensus of $2.36.
* Adjusted operating margin fell by 90 bps to 19.1%. Adjusted free cash flow grew 3% Y/Y to $1.7 billion.
* Chair and CEO Mike Roman said, "The slower-than-expected growth was due to rapid declines in consumer-facing markets - a dynamic that accelerated in December - along with significant slowing in China due to COVID-related disruptions. As demand weakened, we adjusted manufacturing output and controlled costs, which enabled us to improve inventory levels."
* "We expect macroeconomic challenges to persist in 2023," Roman continued. "Our focus is executing the actions we initiated in 2022 and delivering the best performance for customers and shareholders. Based on what we see in our end markets, we will reduce approximately 2,500 global manufacturing roles - a necessary decision to align with adjusted production volumes."
* In December 2022, 3M shared plans to exit per- and polyfluoroalkyl substance (PFAS) manufacturing by the end of 2025.
* Related: 3M Plans To Exit PFAS Manufacturing By 2025 End; Expects Up To $2.3B In Charges
FY23 Outlook: 3M sees -6 to -2 percent adjusted total sales growth and -3 percent to flat adjusted organic sales growth.
* The company expects adjusted EPS of $8.50 - $9.00 versus 2022 of $9.88 on a comparable basis.
* Price Action: MMM shares are trading lower by 3.04% at $118.89 in the premarket on the last check Tuesday.
| 1,674,563,388
|
2023-01-24 12:29:48
|
danisfermi
| 269
| 61
| 0.94
|
Company News
|
/r/stocks/comments/10k4ddf/3m_shares_drop_after_q4_eps_miss_as_macro/
|
https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/10k4ddf/3m_shares_drop_after_q4_eps_miss_as_macro/
|
stocks
|
3m
|
zqnb45
|
Thoughts on 3M?
|
I have been building out an ira portfolio and adding strong dividend yield stocks with modest to solid upside. I schd and add to it incrementally but I also put some money into individual positions. I am looking at adding 3M. It has a nearly 5% yield and a pretty modest 10P/E. They bring in roughly $35B a year and have a $65B market cap. Earnings historically look pretty strong. But what spooks me is the stock performance since 2018. It looks undervalued to me but clearly the market feels otherwise.
Anyone else watching 3M, own it, or avoid it?
| 1,671,539,709
|
2022-12-20 12:35:09
|
Didntlikedefaultname
| 13
| 20
| 0.79
| null |
/r/stocks/comments/zqnb45/thoughts_on_3m/
|
https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/zqnb45/thoughts_on_3m/
|
stocks
|
3m
|
zo5r54
|
How are dividends accounted for in the stock chart performance?
|
Question: How are dividends accounted for in stock performance comparisons?
A company's stock price movement is often seen as a way of measuring the performance of a stock.
However, paying out dividends decreases stock price increase, since it decreases the assets of a company. If a stock has a 5% yield, then I would expect the stock to rise 5% less than a company with similar performance but no dividends.
​
My understanding is that when I look at the performance summary of a stock ticker (how did it fare in the last 1m, 3m, 1y, 5y, etc), the dividends disappear. This would make dividend paying companies look weaker than they actually are.
Is my understanding correct, or are the dividends somehow acounted for in stock charts and statistics?
| 1,671,281,793
|
2022-12-17 12:56:33
|
joe-re
| 21
| 25
| 0.89
|
Industry Question
|
/r/stocks/comments/zo5r54/how_are_dividends_accounted_for_in_the_stock/
|
https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/zo5r54/how_are_dividends_accounted_for_in_the_stock/
|
stocks
|
3m
|
z5d4ui
|
The first inversion is the 1Y/2Y yield. Does that mean the bond market predicts rate cuts occurring between Nov 2023 and Nov 2024?
|
The 1M, 3M, 6M, and 1Y are all normal, the first inversion is the 1Y/2Y bond. I'm just trying to understand what this means, from what I gather this means the bond market *does not expect* rate cuts until at least 1 year from now, but *it does expect* rate cuts within 2 years from now?
I'm really not sure though so any insight is appreciated.
| 1,669,484,314
|
2022-11-26 17:38:34
|
SoullessGinger666
| 9
| 7
| 0.8
| null |
/r/stocks/comments/z5d4ui/the_first_inversion_is_the_1y2y_yield_does_that/
|
https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/z5d4ui/the_first_inversion_is_the_1y2y_yield_does_that/
|
stocks
|
3m
|
yjvye2
|
Why aren’t more companies give retail shareholders perks?
|
I know 3M gives giftboxes, but wonder why wouldn’t Netflix gives subscription discount for say, someone who has 100 shares or more Netflix? Is this more of a tracking / verification issue or more of a SEC regulatory issue? It seems like a no brainer for companies to do this to make their share holder feel special.
Edit: Okay, so I've read a few things about why the heck a company should consider this, so hear me out.
First of all, employees are humans and they have emotions, companies give all sort of perks, t-shirts, special discounts to employees, and they also give shares to employees, to keep them motivated, feel part of a group and community and retained in the company, and hopefully they perform and deliver increase in your share prices. And if they don't, the employee doesn't directly get punished, they could be still earning a high salary, keeping the perks but the investor suffer. META is a clear example of this.
Retail investors are human beings, they have feelings, and when they support a stock they want to feel special, feel part of a community as well, so gestures that make investor, especially those who has a bigger shares or have been holding shares for a long period feels special doesn't need to cost a lot of money, but can positively affect the investor relationship, images for the company, boosting sentiment, and that goes back to the employees who's taking RSUs, so it's a win win.
My thoughts is more of a regulatory concerns, but then I looked up an found GME is basically already doing this so it's not really a concern, more of just a investor relationship strategy, and dealing with retail simply won't scale, but for big big stake holders, inviting them to investor conference and pay for their drinks and meal is probably more common than not.
| 1,667,365,029
|
2022-11-02 04:57:09
|
bwang29
| 172
| 123
| 0.78
|
Industry Question
|
/r/stocks/comments/yjvye2/why_arent_more_companies_give_retail_shareholders/
|
https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/yjvye2/why_arent_more_companies_give_retail_shareholders/
|
stocks
|
3m
|
yd3nrn
|
(10/25) Tuesday's Pre-Market Stock Movers & News
|
#Good morning traders and investors of the r/stocks sub! Welcome to Tuesday! Here are your pre-market stock movers & news on this Tuesday, October the 25th, 2022-
*****
# [Dow and S&P 500 futures slip as investors await big tech earnings](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/24/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html)
*****
> Stock futures fell Tuesday as investors looked ahead to big technology earnings for further clues into the health of the U.S. economy.
*****
> Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 115 points, or 0.4%. S&P 500 futures dipped 0.3%, while Nasdaq 100 futures were down 0.1%.
*****
> Shares of Amazon slipped slightly in premarket trading on reports of a hiring freeze, while Discover Financial shed more than 1% on disappointing earnings results.
*****
> Tuesday’s moves came after another strong day for stocks.
*****
> The Dow rose 417.06 points, or 1.3%, on Monday. The Nasdaq Composite finished 0.9% higher and the S&P 500 added roughly 1.2%, with nine of 11 sectors finishing higher, led by health care.
*****
> “The market has become accustomed to the real price volatility, almost desensitized to it,” said Jeff O’Connor, head of market structure in the Americas for Liquidnet. “And the wild moves are making trading conditions that much more difficult.”
*****
> Investors this week remain laser-focused on earnings from the biggest technology companies, with reports from Alphabet and Microsoft due Tuesday. Meta Platforms reports Wednesday, followed by Amazon and Apple on Thursday. Given their sheer size and market capitalization, any moves are likely to drive the market going forward.
*****
> So far this season, companies have proven they may be faring better than anticipated. That’s due in part to the fact that analysts’ earnings estimates have come down in recent months as companies faced foreign exchange headwinds and other growth concerns. This could set up stocks for rallies on potentially better-than-feared outcomes.
*****
> ″’Earnings really have come down quite a bit,” said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA. “Maybe investors are happy because it’s up 2% and not down 2% but we’ve also been seeing reductions in 2023 forecasts. This bear market probably has to play itself out even if we do get a near-term bear market rally.”
*****
> UPS, GE, Coca-Cola all reported earnings before the bell Tuesday. Chipotle Mexican Grill and Texas Instruments will report after the Tuesday close.
*****
> On the economic data front, S&P/Case-Shiller August home prices, FHFA August home prices and October consumer confidence are slated for release Tuesday.
*****
#STOCK FUTURES CURRENTLY:
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR STOCK FUTURES CHARTS!](https://finviz.com/futures.ashx)**)
*****
#YESTERDAY'S MARKET MAP:
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR YESTERDAY'S MARKET MAP!](https://i.imgur.com/O210XcU.png)**)
*****
#TODAY'S MARKET MAP:
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR TODAY'S MARKET MAP!](https://finviz.com/map.ashx)**)
*****
#YESTERDAY'S S&P SECTORS:
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR YESTERDAY'S S&P SECTORS CHART!](https://i.imgur.com/GMrDySN.png)**)
*****
#TODAY'S S&P SECTORS:
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR TODAY'S S&P SECTORS CHART!](https://finviz.com/groups.ashx)**)
*****
#TODAY'S ECONOMIC CALENDAR:
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR TODAY'S ECONOMIC CALENDAR!](https://i.imgur.com/6Nk6xS1.png)**)
*****
#THIS WEEK'S ECONOMIC CALENDAR:
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR THIS WEEK'S ECONOMIC CALENDAR!](https://i.imgur.com/ghkyRuO.png)**)
*****
#THIS WEEK'S UPCOMING IPO'S:
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR THIS WEEK'S UPCOMING IPO'S!](https://i.imgur.com/Zv07SoZ.png)**)
*****
#THIS WEEK'S EARNINGS CALENDAR:
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR THIS WEEK'S EARNINGS CALENDAR!](https://i.imgur.com/NjDUtkd.png)**)
*****
#THIS MORNING'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS CALENDAR:
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR THIS MORNING'S EARNINGS CALENDAR!](https://i.imgur.com/gRulGez.jpg)**)
*****
#EARNINGS RELEASES BEFORE THE OPEN TODAY:
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR THIS MORNING'S EARNINGS RELEASES LINK # 1!](https://i.imgur.com/M1WkoSB.png)**)
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR THIS MORNING'S EARNINGS RELEASES LINK # 2!](https://i.imgur.com/FNf8O5A.png)**)
*****
#EARNINGS RELEASES AFTER THE CLOSE TODAY:
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR THIS AFTERNOON'S EARNINGS RELEASES LINK #1!](https://i.imgur.com/qo22IwS.png)**)
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR THIS AFTERNOON'S EARNINGS RELEASES LINK #2!](https://i.imgur.com/WveMVqp.png)**)
*****
#YESTERDAY'S ANALYST UPGRADES/DOWNGRADES:
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR YESTERDAY'S ANALYST UPGRADES/DOWNGRADES LINK #1!](https://i.imgur.com/aavHB6j.png)**)
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR YESTERDAY'S ANALYST UPGRADES/DOWNGRADES LINK #2!](https://i.imgur.com/2sggMMU.png)**)
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR YESTERDAY'S ANALYST UPGRADES/DOWNGRADES LINK #3!](https://i.imgur.com/XQl2BX1.png)**)
*****
#YESTERDAY'S INSIDER TRADING FILINGS:
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR YESTERDAY'S INSIDER TRADING FILINGS!](https://i.imgur.com/EENujxr.png)**)
*****
#TODAY'S DIVIDEND CALENDAR:
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR TODAY'S DIVIDEND CALENDAR!](https://i.imgur.com/94qwyE8.png)**)
*****
#THIS MORNING'S STOCK NEWS MOVERS:
######(**source: [cnbc.com](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/25/stocks-making-the-biggest-moves-premarket-coca-cola-general-motors-jetblue-and-others.html)**)
*****
> **Coca-Cola (KO)** – Coca-Cola shares rose 2.9% in the premarket after the beverage giant’ third-quarter earnings and sales beat Street forecasts. The company also raised its full-year outlook as demand remains steady even as it has raised prices to make up for higher expenses.
> #**STOCK SYMBOL:** KO
> * [CLICK HERE FOR CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=KO&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)
> ######(**[CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!](http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/KO)**)
*****
> **General Motors (GM)** – GM shares rallied 4.4% in premarket trading after the automaker reported a better-than-expected third-quarter profit, helped by rebounding sales. GM also said supply chain constraints are easing, allowing it to increase inventories on dealer lots.
> #**STOCK SYMBOL:** GM
> * [CLICK HERE FOR CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=GM&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)
> ######(**[CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!](http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/GM)**)
*****
> **JetBlue (JBLU)** – JetBlue reported a quarterly profit as elevated travel demand helped to make up for rising costs. But its bottom line results fell short of estimates and revenue merely matched consensus. JetBlue slipped 4.5% in premarket trading.
> #**STOCK SYMBOL:** JBLU
> * [CLICK HERE FOR CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=JBLU&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)
> ######(**[CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!](http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/JBLU)**)
*****
> **Xerox (XRX)** – The office equipment maker’s stock tumbled 8.2% in premarket action after it reported an adjusted quarterly profit of 19 cents per share compared with a consensus estimate of 40 cents. Xerox was hit by surging costs and supply chain constraints.
> #**STOCK SYMBOL:** XRX
> * [CLICK HERE FOR CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=XRX&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)
> ######(**[CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!](http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/XRX)**)
*****
> **3M (MMM)** – 3M reported better-than-expected earnings for the third quarter, but the conglomerate’s revenue fell short of Street forecasts. It also cut its full-year outlook due to rising costs and the impact of the strong U.S. dollar.
> #**STOCK SYMBOL:** MMM
> * [CLICK HERE FOR CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=MMM&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)
> ######(**[CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!](http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/MMM)**)
*****
> **General Electric (GE)** – GE jumped 4.2% in premarket action even though its earnings fell short of forecasts. The company cut its full-year outlook as it works its way through supply chain issues and higher costs. GE’s revenue was stronger than expected, as was free cash flow.
> #**STOCK SYMBOL:** GE
> * [CLICK HERE FOR CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=GE&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)
> ######(**[CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!](http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/GE)**)
*****
> **UPS (UPS)** – The delivery service’s shares rallied 4.4% in the premarket following a mixed quarterly report that saw earnings beat consensus and revenue fall short. UPS was helped by expanded profit margins as it raised prices.
> #**STOCK SYMBOL:** UPS
> * [CLICK HERE FOR CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=UPS&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)
> ######(**[CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!](http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/UPS)**)
*****
> **UBS (UBS)** – UBS jumped 5.1% in the premarket after the Swiss bank posted better-than-expected quarterly results, helped by a jump in customer cash inflows to its wealth management business.
> #**STOCK SYMBOL:** UBS
> * [CLICK HERE FOR CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=UBS&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)
> ######(**[CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!](http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/UBS)**)
*****
> **SAP (SAP)** – SAP rose 3% in premarket action after the German business software company reported upbeat quarterly results, helped by strong growth in its cloud business. SAP also confirmed its full-year outlook.
> #**STOCK SYMBOL:** SAP
> * [CLICK HERE FOR CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=SAP&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)
> ######(**[CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!](http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/SAP)**)
*****
> **Logitech (LOGI)** – Logitech jumped 7% in the premarket after the maker of computer peripherals maintained its current full-year guidance, which was reduced in July. Logitech has seen sales cool off following a long period of elevated demand spurred by the pandemic.
> #**STOCK SYMBOL:** LOGI
> * [CLICK HERE FOR CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=LOGI&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)
> ######(**[CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!](http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/LOGI)**)
*****
> **Qualtrics (XM)** – Qualtrics surged 9.6% in the premarket after the maker of customer feedback software reported better-than-expected quarterly results and lifted its full-year forecast.
> #**STOCK SYMBOL:** XM
> * [CLICK HERE FOR CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=XM&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)
> ######(**[CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!](http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/XM)**)
*****
#**FULL DISCLOSURE:**
> /u/bigbear0083 has no positions in any stocks mentioned. Reddit, moderators, and the author do not advise making investment decisions based on discussion in these posts. Analysis is not subject to validation and users take action at their own risk.
*****
#**DISCUSS!**
What's on everyone's radar for today's trading day ahead here at r/stocks?
*****
# **I hope you all have an excellent trading day ahead today on this Tuesday, October 25th, 2022! :)**
| 1,666,701,003
|
2022-10-25 12:30:03
|
bigbear0083
| 1
| 1
| 0.57
| null |
/r/stocks/comments/yd3nrn/1025_tuesdays_premarket_stock_movers_news/
|
https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/yd3nrn/1025_tuesdays_premarket_stock_movers_news/
|
stocks
|
3m
|
y8kzjr
|
The 10y-3m spread finally turned negative today suggesting recession is now imminent
|
As many here know the 10y-2y spread has been deeply inverted for some time now, but today another commonly watched spread, the 3m-10y inverted too.
Generally a 10y-2y inversion can be seen as a forward indicator of recession where as a 10y-3m inversion suggests recession is likely imminent. Both being inverted has been a very strong recession indicator historically, but my understanding is that the Fed watches the 10y-3m specifically to gauge the health of the US economy.
I don't think this is signalling anything we don't already know but it does perhaps suggest the bond market now sees the possibility of a soft-landing as very unlikely.
[https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y3M](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y3M)
| 1,666,230,722
|
2022-10-20 01:52:02
|
kriptonicx
| 1,797
| 539
| 0.92
| null |
/r/stocks/comments/y8kzjr/the_10y3m_spread_finally_turned_negative_today/
|
https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/y8kzjr/the_10y3m_spread_finally_turned_negative_today/
|
stocks
|
3m
|
y6u7up
|
Scared me, says Yahoo Finance: Tesla could become a "zombie stock" as interest rates rise
|
A longtime pessimist about Tesla TSLA +7.01% says the shares could be headed for what he calls “zombie stock” territory.
David Trainer, CEO of stock research firm New Constructs, who wrote in August 2013 that Tesla stock was “way overvalued” at $11 a share, said in a research note Monday that the shares have a long way to fall. The company’s spectacular sales growth could be the problem, he wrote.
Back in 2013, Trainer was worried about Tesla ’s low profitability, reliance on sales of zero-emission regulatory credits, and persistent cash burn. Tesla reported a small operating loss in 2013, but things have improved substantially.
The company is expected to report about $15 billion in operating profit for 2022. What’s more, Tesla has now generated positive free cash flow over its entire life and Wall Street projects another $6.5 billion during the second half of 2022. The total expected between 2023 and 2025 is roughly $55 billion.
Cheap growth capital and falling interest rates helped Tesla achieve those financial results. The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury debt went from roughly 2.5% to 0.5% between mid-2013 and mid-2020, but interest rates are rising now. The 10-year Treasury yields almost 4%.
Rising rates are a new concern for Trainer. Higher interest rates tend to depress valuations for richly valued growth stocks the most. Growth companies, such as Tesla, generate most of their earnings and cash flow far in the future. Both are worth less in today’s dollars when discounted back at higher interest rates.
High valuations and rising rates help create the category of what Trainer refers to as “zombie stocks”—those that, roughly speaking, go nowhere, or fall, no matter what the underlying business produces. And Tesla is certainly highly valued, especially for a car company. Trainer notes that Tesla’s market capitalization at near $700 billion dwarfs the combined figure of nearly $400 billion for Toyota Motor (TM), General Motors (GM), Stellantis (STLA), Honda Motor (HMC), Tata Motors (TTM), and Nissan Motor (NSANY).
Growth, of course, is the reason for the gap. Tesla’s sales rose more than 110% between 2019 and 2021. Combined sales for the peer group dropped almost 10% over the same span.
Investors might think that growth would lift Tesla stock out of the zombie zone, but the reverse could be true. The larger Tesla’s car business gets, the more investors will treat the company like a car stock, giving it a valuation like those of other auto manufacturers, according to Trainer.
“If we assume Tesla sells 9% more vehicles than Toyota \[in 2031\] Tesla has 56%+ downside,” Trainer wrote. The logic is that for Tesla to get that big, its operating profit margins would have to fall to match those of its competitors. For Tesla, sales 9% higher than Toyota’s and comparable operating profit margins would yield roughly $44 billion in 2031 operating profit.
It’s a big number, but only 80% higher than what is now expected for 2023. According to Trainer’s financial model, that justifies a current share price of only $90 for Tesla stock, while the stock is comfortably above $200.
Concern over Tesla’s valuation isn’t new, and the stock remains controversial. Targets for the price on Wall Street range from about $24 to $530 a share. The so-called bull-bear spread of more than $500 is almost 250% of the recent stock price.
The bull-bear spread for GM stock is about 175%, while the figure for the industrial conglomerate 3M (MMM) is about 67%.
Trainer’s report didn’t hurt Tesla shares on Monday. The stock closed up 7%, at $219.35, while the S&P 500SPX +2.65% and Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA +1.86% gained 2.7% and 1.9%, respectively.
| 1,666,060,064
|
2022-10-18 02:27:44
|
tang4685
| 0
| 57
| 0.46
|
Company News
|
/r/stocks/comments/y6u7up/scared_me_says_yahoo_finance_tesla_could_become_a/
|
https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/y6u7up/scared_me_says_yahoo_finance_tesla_could_become_a/
|
stocks
|
3m
|
y5hlal
|
Duolingo stock analysis and valuation - A company that I love
|
This week's casual valuation is Duolingo, a company that's very close to my heart offering a great language learning experience that is universally available. I am a huge proponent of free knowledge and I try to contribute to that as much as I can. All of these posts that I share weekly are free (and will continue to be that way). I strongly believe knowledge should be easily accessible to everyone.
The post will be divided into a few segments:
1. Understanding the business
2. Understanding the historical financial performance
3. Laying down some assumptions to value the company
4. Valuing the company based on assumptions significantly different than mine
**What is Duolingo?**
It's a technology company that wants to develop the best education in the world. At the moment, a more accurate description would be that it is a gamified language-learning platform offering over 40 different languages. What will come next, is to be seen. We could see mathematics, physics, and a lot more diversified content in the future.
As for the language-learning part, they are not alone in this field. There are plenty of ways to learn a new language, starting from YouTube, attending formal classes with tutors, to reading books and other similar apps. So, how is Duolingo different?
It's more personalized and provides a different and more fun user experience that guides the user through this journey. The user is not only engaged but also gets instant feedback. As a user, whether you've got it right or wrong, you are aware of it and can take action.
As a company, it has a significant amount of data that it can use to test and figure out what works and why. Similarly, the data can be used to understand what mistakes are most often made and help the users overcome these mistakes.
So, how does it make money? There are 4 different revenue sources:
\- Subscription (74%) - Those users that would like an ad-free experience can subscribe to their platform and get other features as well. This is by far their largest revenue source
\- Advertising (15%) - Users that cannot afford or aren't willing to pay for the content watch advertisements. They do not pay money, but they do pay with their time. Duolingo is monetizing these users as well which is great. Dropbox has a ton of free users as well, however, they don't earn anything from them as there are no ads. In addition, they need to pay for the storage, so the free users that Dropbox has, are destroying value over time.
\- DET (9%) - It stands for Duolingo English Tests - an English proficiency assessment and it is their fastest growing segment at this moment. This is being more and more accepted by universities, but also can be used as part of a resume/CV for those who would like to show their proficiency. In addition, it costs roughly 1/4 of what their competitors charge.
\- In-app purchases (2%) - related to additional features such as streak freeze/repairs, etc.
​
In each of these segments, Duolingo has growth plans. In the end, it all comes down to:
\- Getting more users
\- Converting more users from free to paid
\- Increasing the lifetime value of the subscribers (by keeping them subscribed for a longer period of time)
\- Expand adoption of DET
\- Extend the platform beyond language learning
​
**Historical financial performance**
So, how well did they do until now?
The # of monthly active users grew from **27.3m** back in 2019 to **49.5m** as of June 30th, 2022.
The # of daily active users grew from **5.2m** to **13.2m** for the same period.
The # of paid users grew from **0.9m** to **3.3m**.
Their penetration rate (Paid users / monthly active users) increased from **3.3%** to **6.7%**!
​
This growth reflects in their financials, as the revenue grew from $71m in 2019 to $306m for the last twelve months ("LTM") ending June 30th, 2022. The LTM revenue is still roughly 10% of their market cap.
Their gross margin grew from 71% to 73% during this period, but isn't sufficient yet to cover all the other operating expenses:
\- Research & Development (was **45%** of revenue back in 2019 --> **40%** LTM)
\- Sales & Marketing (was **21%** of revenue back in 2019 --> **20%** LTM)
\- General & Administrative (was **23%** back in 2019 --> **37%** LTM)
It is clear that the company isn't profitable, but the general & administrative seems too high. That's mainly due to IPO-related expenses. It will decrease as % of revenue in the coming period.
As they are working on diversifying content away from languages, they are pouring a lot of money into R&D. All of the expenses are expected to decrease significantly over time.
​
**The balance sheet**
As it is a technology company, there isn't really much on the balance sheet. Almost 85% of their entire balance sheet ($591m / $701m) represents the cash that they own.
On the other side of the balance sheet, there isn't much to discuss, except the unearned revenue of $128m. This represents the cash that Duolingo has received from users that have paid in advance for using the platform in the future. For example, if someone purchases an annual plan today, Duolingo will get the cash today, but the service will be provided over the next 12 months. Hence, the company does not recognize the revenue today, but over time.
​
**Assumptions about the future & valuation**
My assumptions:
**- Revenue growth** of 25% for the next 5 years, then declining to 10% by year 10 and then to 4% afterward (same as the risk-free rate).
**- Operating margin** of -20% for the next year, improving to -5% in year 5 and ultimately to 25%.
**- A discount rate of 12.92%** (WACC-based), decreasing to 11.31% over time (assuming the company becomes more mature and hence, less risky)
​
There are two classes of share, each one with a different number of voting rights. Since this has an impact on the control of the company coming from owning these shares, I've applied a 15% discount for lack of control.
Based on these assumptions, the fair value is $1,5b **($37.45/share)**
The current market cap is $3,1b ($78.31/share)
​
However, out of the $1,5b, only $72m is due to the present value of the cash flows in the next 10 years! The majority is based on the value that the company generates afterward as a stable, mature, profitable company with more users and diversified content.
​
**What if my assumptions are significantly wrong?**
​
Based on the assumptions above, the revenue will grow by 539% to $2b in 10 years and the operating margin will be 25%.
I am aware that my assumptions could be significantly wrong. So, let's take a look at how the value of the company (per share) will change based on different assumptions regarding the revenue 10 years from now and the operating margin:
​
|Revenue / Op. margin|20%|25%|30%|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|350% ($1,4b)|$20.5|$26.0|$31.1|
|539% ($2,0b)|$29.7|$37.5|$44.7|
|650% ($2,3b)|$35.1|$44.1|$52.6|
|1000% ($3,4b)|$51.9|$65.2|$77.0|
​
The table illustrates how much the company needs to grow and how high should the operating margin be so that it is fairly valued today.
Personally, I love everything about the company, except the price. It has a great mission, the management team is doing a good job, it is the best platform out there that I know of, and the users are engaged.
I am definitely excited about its future and I would love to have it in my portfolio one day.
​
What are your thoughts about Duolingo and its valuation?
| 1,665,928,944
|
2022-10-16 14:02:24
|
k_ristovski
| 233
| 103
| 0.91
|
Company Analysis
|
/r/stocks/comments/y5hlal/duolingo_stock_analysis_and_valuation_a_company/
|
https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/y5hlal/duolingo_stock_analysis_and_valuation_a_company/
|
stocks
|
3m
|
xrn18p
|
FCF Yield of Stocks I am Watching
|
I recently compiled a list of stocks with their free cash flow (FCF) yield to see how good or bad that investment might be compared to a **2 year treasury bond (which is currently yielding \~4.2%)**. The yield was calculated using the enterprise value (EV) of the company since a lot of the companies carry a high debt load (think about AT&T, Verizon, and Comcast for example).
**Here is the equation for FCF yield of a company/stock that I used: FCF(ttm)/EV and FCF(5 yrs avg)/EV.** So basically I looked at the trailing 12 months (ttm) free cash flows and last 5 years average free cash flows as well. The data was taken from Yahoo Finance app and approximate. If you like any of the stocks based on their FCF yield, definitely do additional research to verify /cross check the numbers (some of the data might be inaccurate because of human error ).
***Disclaimer: Some of the data might be inaccurate, please cross check, and I am not responsible for any investment decision you make based on this analysis (don't sue me LOL)***
​
|Company Name (Ticker) |Current Price|FCF Yield (TTM)|FCF Yield (5 yrs Avg)|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|Microsoft (MSFT)|$236.41|3.72%|2.97%|
|Apple (AAPL)|$142.48|4.35%|3.23%|
|Meta (META)|$136.37|10.1%|7.65%|
|Alphabet Inc. (GOOG/GOOGL)|$98.81|5.4%|3.75%|
|Adobe (ADBE)|$276.96|5.44%|4.13%|
|Mastercard (MA)|$286.48|3.09%|2.57%|
|Visa (V)|$177.87|4.04%|3.22%|
|Paypal (PYPL)|$91.12|4.92%|4.6%|
|Home Depot (HD)|$268.69|3.35%|3.88%|
|Lowes (LOW)|$187.67|5.08%|4.44%|
|Lam Research (LRCX)|$371.44|4.77%|4.93%|
|Applied Materials (AMAT)|$82.94|6.56%|5.04%|
|KLAC Corp (KLAC)|$303.57|6.29%|3.98%|
|Texas Instruments (TXN)|$160.46|4.03%|4.04%|
|Broadcom (AVGO)|$464.75|6.95%|5.24%|
|Qualcomm (QCOM)|$120.34|4.58%|4.02%|
|TSMC (TSM)|$73.03|4.21%|2.65%|
|ASML Holdings (ASML)|$441.23|5.35%|3.2%|
|United Healthcare (UNH)|$508.37|4.11%|3.63%|
|Nike (NKE)|$96.29|2.95%|2.8%|
|Thor Industries (THO)|$71.75|14.10%|9.06%|
|A.O. Smith (AOS)|$49.41 |5.6%|5.95%|
|Church & Dwight (CHD)|$73.22|4.15%|4.02%|
|Procter & Gamble (PG)|$131.98|3.87%|3.96%|
|Colgate (CL)|$72.58|3.4%|3.96%|
|J&J (JNJ)|$166.36|4.59%|4.51%|
|Walmart (WMT)|$130.95|1.36%|3.72%|
|Costco (COST)|$488.29|2.65%|2.43%|
|Target (TGT)|$148.47|0.5%|4.65%|
|Cocacola (KO)|$56.38|3.66%|3.2%|
|Pepsi (PEP)|$166.01|2.38%|2.35%|
|Tyson (TSN)|$68.56|4.38%|6.08%|
|Philip Morris (PM)|$87.02|7.05%|5.78%|
|Williams Sonoma (WSM)|$127.71|10.33%|8.52%|
|Booking Holdings (BKNG)|$1669.16|9.2%|5.42%|
|Dominos (DPZ)|$314.19|2.46%|2.55%|
|3M (MMM)|$112.41|5.6%|7.01%|
|Snap On (SNA)|$204.32|5.88%|6.59%|
|Caterpillar (CAT)|$162.44|2.58%|3.36%|
|Cummins (CMI)|$203.17|4.13%|5.89%|
|Verizon (VZ)|$38.89|2.97%|4.9% (normalized)|
|Comcast (CMCSA)|$30.26|6.56%|6.24%|
|Sonos (SONO)|$14.39|3.22%|6.64%|
|Emerson Electric (EMR)|$73.06|3.75%|4.62%|
|Medtronic (MDT)|$82.59|4.6%|4.53%|
|Southwest Airlines (LUV)|$31.50|5.5%|9.1%|
|Magna Intl. (MGA)|$50.04|5.01%|9.71%|
​
***Do you have any other recommendations that I should add to the list? I will add more stocks to this list over the next 3 days (i.e. until October 2, 2022). So comment below if you want any other stocks to be added....***
| 1,664,496,457
|
2022-09-30 00:07:37
|
ali_b_investing
| 5
| 3
| 0.73
| null |
/r/stocks/comments/xrn18p/fcf_yield_of_stocks_i_am_watching/
|
https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/xrn18p/fcf_yield_of_stocks_i_am_watching/
|
stocks
|
3m
|
xmdo61
|
Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning September 26th, 2022
|
Good Friday evening to all of you here on r/stocks! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and are ready for the new trading week ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning September 26th, 2022.
# **Dow drops nearly 500 points to close at new low for 2022 on rising recession fears - [(Source)](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/22/futures-inch-higher-following-another-day-of-losses-after-fed-rate-hike-sell-offs.html)**
*****
> Stocks tumbled Friday to cap a brutal week for financial markets, as surging interest rates and foreign currency turmoil heightened fears of a global recession.
*****
> The Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbled 486.27 points, or 1.62%, to 29,590.41. The S&P 500 slid 1.72% to 3,693.23, while the Nasdaq Composite dropped 1.8% to 10,867.93.
*****
> The Dow notched a new low for the year and closed below 30,000 for the first time since June 17. The 30-stock index ended the day 19.9% below an intraday record, flirting with bear market territory. At one point, the Dow was down more than 826 points.
*****
> The major averages capped their fifth negative week in six, with the Dow giving up 4%. The S&P and Nasdaq shed 4.65% and 5.07%, respectively. It marked the fourth negative session in a row for stocks, as the Fed on Wednesday enacted another super-sized rate hike of 75 basis points and indicated it would do another at its November meeting.
*****
> “The market has been transitioning clearly and quickly from worries over inflation to concerns over the aggressive Federal Reserve campaign,” said Quincy Krosby of LPL Financial. “You see bond yields rising to levels we haven’t seen in years — it’s changing the mindset to how does the Fed get to price stability without something breaking.”
*****
> The British pound hit a fresh more than three-decade low against the U.S. dollar after a new U.K. economic plan that included a slew of tax cuts rattled markets that are fearing inflation above all right now. Major European markets lost 2% on the day.
*****
> “This is a global macro mess that the market is trying to sort out,” Krosby said.
*****
> Bond yields soared this week following the Fed’s actions, with the 2-year and 10-year Treasury rates hitting highs not seen in over a decade.
*****
> Goldman Sachs cut its year-end S&P 500 target because of rising rates, predicting at least a 4% downside from here.
*****
> Stocks positioned to suffer the most in a recession led the week’s losses with the S&P 500′s consumer discretionary sector falling 7%. Energy slumped 9% as oil prices dropped. Growth stocks, including big technology names Apple, Amazon, Microsoft and Meta Platforms fell on Friday.
*****
> “Based on our client discussions, a majority of equity investors have adopted the view that a hard landing scenario is inevitable and their focus is on the timing, magnitude, and duration of a potential recession and investment strategies for that outlook,” wrote Goldman Sachs’ David Kostin in a note to clients as he cut his outlook.
*****
# **This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:**
###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!](https://i.imgur.com/f74j3wZ.png))**
# **S&P Sectors for this past week:**
###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!](https://i.imgur.com/RY5yAn6.png))**
# **Major Indices for this past week:**
###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!](https://i.imgur.com/i2lueAy.png))**
# **Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:**
###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!](https://i.imgur.com/9HxK7AL.png))**
# **Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:**
###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!](https://i.imgur.com/ujpA6eb.png))**
# **Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:**
###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://i.imgur.com/gzWEdcI.png))**
# **S&P Sectors for the Past Week:**
###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://i.imgur.com/nIaQRMh.png))**
# **Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:**
###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://i.imgur.com/Cd7vMGH.png))**
# **Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:**
###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://i.imgur.com/wVxDHyr.png))**
# **Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:**
###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://i.imgur.com/6zs87jB.jpg))**
# **Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:**
###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://i.imgur.com/jeJV4rn.png))**
# **Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:**
###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!](https://i.imgur.com/5oP5PDF.png))**
###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!](https://i.imgur.com/D3NobOu.png))**
###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #3!](https://i.imgur.com/zu87XNw.png))**
*****
> # Market Atones for Sins Early
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://64.media.tumblr.com/14389b6eb9f59fcb82be553d2eb6ec89/8489dff9c57e81f8-10/s500x750/85668c595adc715f861d98fab2c2d2c6383bde07.jpg))**
> So, it might be a bit late for Sell Rosh Hashanah, but Buy Yom Kippur is looking like a good set up. A host of fears from inflation, hawkish Fed, bellicose Russia, global upheaval, US midterm politics is exacerbating the usual seasonal and 4-year cycle carnage.
> The thesis is that folks sell positions on Rosh Hashanah the first of the Days of Awe to rid themselves of financial commitments and then return to the market after Yom Kippur, the Day of Atonement. It is no coincidence that this coincides with the seasonal September/October weakness.
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://64.media.tumblr.com/73ee07aab9aad9010423b62e060f0ce7/8489dff9c57e81f8-a9/s500x750/8283b997870471cc877e46b4686b6b8734cd2e12.jpg))**
> Interestingly the Sell Rosh Hashanah/Buy Yom Kippur period is not so bad in midterm years, likely due to the fact it lands at the end of the Weak Spot and the beginning of the Sweet Spot of the 4-Year cycle – the best buying opportunity of the 4-Year Cycle.
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://64.media.tumblr.com/8123ce44b73879106622d4cf3e79616d/8489dff9c57e81f8-ad/s500x750/b59357326b8bd57bc6cccc9c12577e63e59ab8c2.jpg))**
*****
> # Five Reasons Inflation Isn’t So Sticky
> After the disappointing all around Consumer Price Index (CPI) report last week, the worries over inflation staying higher for longer (what they call sticky) is a very real worry. That report showed prices for many goods and services were increasing more than expected (even things like dental services were much higher than expected), while nearly every economist we saw on tv before the report was saying inflation had peaked and would be heading down, and in a hurry.
> Full disclosure, I was in that camp as well, as I discussed with Yahoo! Finance here.
> Well, it isn’t all bad news, as there are many signs inflation could still come back down quickly. For one thing gas prices continue to head lower, as my colleague Sonu Varghese recently wrote about. Sure, core consumer prices (excluding energy and food) are higher than anyone would like, but there are other types of inflation than just at the consumer level.
> Here are five reasons that suggest inflation could still fall quite quickly and last month’s CPI data isn’t the beginning of a new trend.
> First up, used car prices collapsed four percent last month according to the Manheim Used Car Value Index. This was the second largest monthly decline ever and the year-over-year change is down to 8.4%, the lowest since June 2020. This large drop wasn’t accounted for in the recent CPI report and will put downward pressure on prices over the coming months.
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://www.carsongroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Graph-1-092122.png))**
> Second, how much companies are paying for things is going down and quickly. Looking at the prices paid component of the ISM services and manufacturing surveys show a big move lower the past few months. Prices paid tends to lead overall CPI by several months, and so this is another reason to think inflation could come down quickly before year-end.
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://www.carsongroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Graph-2-092122.png))**
> Third, the ISM is a national survey, but regional surveys show similar results. The recent Philly Fed and Empire State surveys each show prices paid crashing lower.
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://www.carsongroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Graph-3-092122.png))**
> Fourth, supply chain issues were a major reason for the huge spike in inflation. So, you would think once those supply chains begin to improve, so would inflation. The good news is we are seeing substantial improvements in supply chains. For instance, back in January more than 100 ships were caught in a logjam at the Port of Los Angeles, yet earlier this month there were less than 10 ships. And as the chart below shows, overall supply chain pressures have come down significantly. Another source of potential downward pressure on overall inflation.
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://www.carsongroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Graph-4-092122.png))**
> Lastly, prices at the producer level have come back much quicker than at the consumer level. The Producer Price Index (PPI) year-over-year peaked at 11.6% in March, but it was already down to 8.7% five months later. Compare that with the CPI peaking at just over 9.0% and only at 8.3% currently.
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://www.carsongroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Graph-5-092122.png))**
> So there you have it. Inflation is still a major issue, and that recent CPI report wasn’t pretty in any way. But there is light at the end of the inflation tunnel, as other aspects of inflation is showing some incredible improvement and not many people are noticing.
*****
> # September to (Not) Remember
> Hat tip George Noble @gnoble79 for this title from his superb Twitter Space today. He has been on point all year. Disappointing CPI and increasingly hawkish remarks and action from the Fed clearly brought the usual September peak early. But that does not mean we are out of the woods.
> Late September is still a dangerous period for the market, especially month-end, and then there is Octoberphobia to contend with, which promises to be turbulent with all the market must digest. On top of the Fed, inflation, weaker fundamentals, fickle market internals, shaky technicals we have the negative seasonality from fund tax selling, end of Q3 window dressing and portfolio restructuring.
> We have been cautious all year and mostly in cash, having honored our stops and indicators. June lows are only 1% away for the Dow, S&P 3.4%, NASDAQ 5.4%, Russell 2000 6.8%. Cash is still king. Patience is in order. We are sticking to our Seasonal Trading Playbook. If you’re not nimble and able to trade quickly, wait for our Best Six Months Seasonal MACD Buy Signal.
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://64.media.tumblr.com/b3028d078cff847c816f2ba188b0f9e0/d21403cd066948d5-25/s500x750/e12ec7d217d9fdcfb4dbf8c88347068407531c37.jpg))**
*****
> # Worse Before It Gets Better
> For those checking in on our Seasonality Tool in the past week, the current point of the year can either look like one of the worst, middling, or best times of the year depending on the time frame. As shown below, the median one-week performance of the S&P 500 from the close on 9/20 over the last ten years has been a decline of 95 bps loss which ranks in just the fourth percentile of all days of the year. Extending out to look at the S&P 500's median one-month performance, the 105 bps median gain is about smack dab in the middle of the range of historical one-month returns. Moving out to three months, the S&P 500's median gain of 578 bps ranks in the top 5% of all days.
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2022/09/092022-Season-1.png))**
> To look at seasonality in another way, the charts below show the average S&P 500 5-day performance (including a smoothed look via a 7-day moving average) and the percentage of time the index has traded positively at each calendar day of the year going all the way back to 1945. The current week of the year has averaged some of the worst one-week returns for the S&P 500 across all years of the post-WWII period while the index has tended to fall more often than not.
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2022/09/092022-Season-5-Day.png))**
> Again, contrary to short-term seasonal weakness, taking a similar look but using a 3-month performance window, we are entering one of the best times of the year. As shown below, the second half of September into October sees the average 3-month performance rocket higher and by early October has tended to be the strongest of any point of the year.
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2022/09/092022-Season-3Mo.png))**
*****
> # The Biggest Pandemic Losers
> With President Biden declaring that "the pandemic is over" on 60 Minutes last night, we thought we'd take a look at stock market performance since the pandemic began. At its peak on January 3rd, 2022, the S&P 500 was up more than 40% from its closing price on February 19th, 2020 -- the peak reading for the index prior to the COVID Crash. After entering bear market territory in 2022, the S&P is currently only 14% above its pre-COVID high. In the Russell 1,000 -- another large-cap index -- 41% of stocks are now trading below their closing price on February 19th, 2020. 20% of stocks in the index are down more than 20%! Given that two and a half years have passed, we think it's safe to say that any stock down 20% from pre-COVID levels has been a "pandemic loser." At least at this point in time.
> Below are stocks with market caps above $15 billion that are down at least 20% from their closing price on 2/19/20. Names like Boeing (BA), Delta (DAL), Uber (UBER), and Las Vegas Sands (LVS) were some of the initial "lockdown losers" that never really recovered, but other stocks that were initially viewed as "lockdown winners" are also on the list like Netflix (NFLX), Meta (META), Spotify (SPOT), and Zoom Video (ZM). Go figure.
> Boeing (BA) and Intel (INTC) have been two of the biggest losers since pre-COVID with declines of more than 56%. Other "blue chips" that have been crushed since the pandemic hit include Biogen (BIIB), Citigroup (C), General Electric (GE), Verizon (VZ), 3M (MMM), Square (SQ), Disney (DIS), Adobe (ADBE), and salesforce (CRM). It's interesting that there's representation from nearly every sector of the economy on this list. The only sector that's NOT included is Energy, which is crazy since the sector was one of the hardest hit in the early days of COVID as the price of oil even went negative for a day.
> Of course, COVID isn't the reason why all of these large-cap stocks are now down so much since the pandemic began, but the performance numbers are the performance numbers, and there's no getting around it. Management at big travel & leisure companies have always wished COVID never happened, but more and more companies in sectors like Tech that thought the pandemic might be a game-changer for them in a positive way are now staring at big 2+ year declines thinking "what the hell just happened."
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2022/09/pandemiclosers.png))**
*****
Here are the most notable companies reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
*****
> * (**T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.**)
*****
###### **([CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!](https://i.imgur.com/6zs87jB.jpg))**
###### **([CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!](https://i.imgur.com/FZ7DshT.png))**
###### **([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!]())**
(NONE.)
*****
Below are some of the notable companies coming out with earnings releases this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:
*****
> # ***Monday 9.26.22 Before Market Open:***
> ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)
> # ***Monday 9.26.22 After Market Close:***
> ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)
*****
> # ***Tuesday 9.27.22 Before Market Open:***
> ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!](https://i.imgur.com/e72E0eU.png))
> # ***Tuesday 9.27.22 After Market Close:***
> ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!](https://i.imgur.com/G9KvsN7.png))
*****
> # ***Wednesday 9.28.22 Before Market Open:***
> ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!](https://i.imgur.com/JvImAw9.png))
> # ***Wednesday 9.28.22 After Market Close:***
> ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!](https://i.imgur.com/n93o18Z.png))
*****
> # ***Thursday 9.29.22 Before Market Open:***
> ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!](https://i.imgur.com/PbFqh6U.png))
> # ***Thursday 9.29.22 After Market Close:***
> ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!](https://i.imgur.com/OPA7S3z.png))
*****
> # ***Friday 9.30.22 Before Market Open:***
> ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!](https://i.imgur.com/ZYlvCTx.png))
*****
> # ***Friday 9.30.22 After Market Close:***
> ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)
*****
> # (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)
**(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)** (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).
> #([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://charts.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=SPY&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l))
*****
# DISCUSS!
What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?
*****
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead r/stocks. :)
| 1,663,978,340
|
2022-09-24 00:12:20
|
bigbear0083
| 48
| 3
| 0.89
| null |
/r/stocks/comments/xmdo61/wall_street_week_ahead_for_the_trading_week/
|
https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/xmdo61/wall_street_week_ahead_for_the_trading_week/
|
stocks
|
3m
|
x9wybb
|
Troubled 3M Gets a Boost: an Upgrade
|
3M is tangled in a web of legal problems besides facing the inflation and economic slowdown that everyone else is. On Friday, though, Wall Street-backed off its harsh stance —just a bit: One bearish analyst is now a little less bearish.
UBS analyst Chris Snyder upgraded his rating of 3M (ticker: MMM) stock to Hold from Sell and raised his price target to $126 a share from $118. He believes the stock price is down enough where potential outcomes from litigation are accounted for.
3M is facing hundreds of thousands of lawsuits related to its sale of faulty earplugs to the military. The gear has been tied to hearing problems in veterans. In addition, the company is on the hook for cleaning up chemicals that leaked into the ground water where they were produced.
Wall Street has struggled to quantifying the liabilities. Analysts estimate the number in the tens of billions of dollars. Comparatively speaking, 3M’s market capitalization sits at about $68 billion. The liabilities are in large part why the stock for about 11 times estimated next year’s earnings, down from about 16 times three years ago. The Buy-rating ratio isn’t impacted by the upgrade. Of 21 analysts covering the company, one rates shares Buy—a little less than 5%. The average Buy-rating ratio for stocks in the S&P 5000 is 58%.
Snyder’s move, however, did change the Sell-rating ratio. Now, six of 21 analysts rate shares Sell—almost 30%. The average Sell-rating ratio for S&P stocks is less than 10%. Also on Friday, Deutsche Bank analyst Nicole Deblase lowered her price target to $127 from $155. She rates shares Hold.
The average analyst price target now sits at about $138 a share. In trading, upgrade was outweighing the target cut. 3M shares were up 0.8%, at $120.18. The S&P 500 was up 0.8% as well, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 0.6%. The stock is down about 33% this year.
[https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/3m-ear-plugs-lawsuits-upgrade-51662732513?mod=newsviewer\_click](https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/3m-ear-plugs-lawsuits-upgrade-51662732513?mod=newsviewer_click)
| 1,662,733,663
|
2022-09-09 14:27:43
|
mikeyrocksin2021
| 0
| 0
| 0.36
|
Company News
|
/r/stocks/comments/x9wybb/troubled_3m_gets_a_boost_an_upgrade/
|
https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/x9wybb/troubled_3m_gets_a_boost_an_upgrade/
|
stocks
|
3m
|
x7afyx
|
Neogen (NEOG) - how far can it fall
|
Completed the merger with 3M food safety last week, but the fall continues.
I've met some of the people there, and the business seems set for growth.
I'm thinking about building a position, but it is hard to start when the knife seems to continue to fall; and I'm not very good at catching them.
| 1,662,470,315
|
2022-09-06 13:18:35
|
Joegmcd
| 4
| 8
| 0.67
| null |
/r/stocks/comments/x7afyx/neogen_neog_how_far_can_it_fall/
|
https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/x7afyx/neogen_neog_how_far_can_it_fall/
|
stocks
|
3m
|
x2whmm
|
3M Plans Job Cuts as Part of a Broader Cost-Cutting Initiative
|
(Bloomberg) -- 3M Co. plans to eliminate jobs as part of a broader cost-cutting drive in response to the slowing economy, according to internal communications.
The move comes just days after 3M suffered a setback over a key legal strategy designed to mitigate mounting liabilities and as it faces an array of other challenges, ranging from inflationary woes to sluggish growth.
Michael Vale, head of 3M’s safety and industrial division, disclosed the planned cuts in a message to employees of the unit. “The business can’t avoid this tough necessity,” he said in the communication, which was reviewed by Bloomberg News.
The scope of the workforce reduction couldn’t be immediately determined, but in the memo Vale said other parts of the company would see similar actions. 3M, which makes everything from dental adhesives to Post-it notes, employed about 95,000 people at the end of 2021, according to securities filings.
“3M is taking decisive actions to position the company for continued growth, while also adjusting to the challenging macroeconomic environment,” the company said in a statement, without being more specific. “As we prioritize our investments and resources, we will be adjusting on an ongoing basis the roles and responsibilities needed for future growth.”
The multinational manufacturer has underperformed in recent years amid supply-chain snags, currency fluctuations and rising costs. 3M said in July it will spin off its health-care operation, which accounted for almost a quarter of sales. Management also cut its full-year sales and profit outlook.
It also potentially faces billions of dollars in future costs tied to environmental liabilities and lawsuits alleging that it sold faulty combat earplugs to the US military that led to hearing damage. A bankruptcy judge last week rejected 3M’s attempt to use controversial bankruptcy rules to halt those claims, allowing them to proceed to trial. 3M has said it plans to appeal the ruling.
Read more: 3M Bankruptcy Tactic Fails as Combat Earplug Suits Move to Trial
The company’s safety and industrial division plans to realign and reduce its structure, streamline its portfolio and rethink business processes, as well as eliminate jobs, according to the message. It is 3M’s largest business unit by revenue and accounted for 34% of its $35.4 billion in sales last year.
It also operates other divisions, selling a variety of products in the consumer, transportation and electronics markets.
Shares of the St. Paul, Minnesota-based company were little changed late Wednesday in New York. They are down 30% this year, compared with a 17% loss for the S&P 500.
| 1,662,001,195
|
2022-09-01 02:59:55
|
rockinoutwith2
| 29
| 6
| 0.86
|
Company News
|
/r/stocks/comments/x2whmm/3m_plans_job_cuts_as_part_of_a_broader/
|
https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/x2whmm/3m_plans_job_cuts_as_part_of_a_broader/
|
stocks
|
3m
|
x1nwsu
|
Radio isn't dead...…yet
|
Hi All!
I have come across a "Special Situation" in the broadcasting sector, Saga Communications. Below is my investment memo. Remember, do your own diligence, this isn't investment advice.
**Saga Communications (SGA: NASDAQ)**
Date 8/30/2022
Current Price: $28
Target Price: $36.95
Implied Upside: 34%
​
**Abstract and Investment Thesis**
**Abstract**
I believe Saga Communications (SGA) which currently trades at $28/share is undervalued. My target price of $36.95 implies a 34% upside.
SGA shares are attractively priced given the following catalysts:
Super voting control by the former CEO has been terminated due to his passing
Dual share class has collapsed into one share class
Near-term revenue growth driven by mid-term political advertising spend
**Investment Thesis**
Given the above catalysts, I believe SGA is uniquely situated for an activist investor to emerge or a competitor to acquire the company in the near-term.
**COMPANY BACKGROUND**
Saga Communications, Inc. is a broadcast company whose business is primarily devoted to acquiring, developing, and operating radio stations. Saga currently owns or operates broadcast properties in 27 markets, including 79 FM and 35 AM radio stations. Saga Communications is located in Grosse Pointe Farms, Michigan.
Saga's strategy is to operate top billing radio stations in mid-sized markets, defined as markets ranked (by market revenues) from 20 to 200. Saga's radio stations employ a myriad of programming formats, including Active Rock, Adult Album Alternative, Adult Contemporary, Country, and others.
Saga began operations in 1986 and became a publicly traded company in December 1992.
SGA employs 570 full-time individuals and 227 part-time individuals.
SGA owns and operates over 100 radio licenses.
SGA operates in 27 markets including: Columbus, Milwaukee, Norfolk, Des Moines, Charleston, and Ocala FL.
**COMPANY BACKGROUND**
Saga decentralizes the corporate brand from each local station. This allows the local stations to build their own brand outside of the corporate enterprise and create long-term community goodwill in their respective cities.
In addition to the decentralized corporate enterprise, Saga focuses on winning local advertisement accounts over national advertising accounts. In larger markets, national advertising is less personable as the ad accounts will come from well established companies like General Motors, Apple and Proctor and Gamble.
Focusing on local advertising gives the Saga team an opportunity to build a reputation with small businesses — establishing community goodwill. This decentralized system has given the Company a competitive advantage over larger radio companies in the area who tend to focus more on larger national accounts.
The Company has consistently generated \~$125 million in revenues, \~$25 million in EBITDA and \~$20 million in free cash flow.
Saga Communications operates radio stations in the top 30 – 200 markets. SGA markets are located in the Midwest, Southeast, and Northeast.
Within SGA’s top seven markets, their radio stations are ranked from 1st to 5th in listenership (Nielsen's Audio Ranking).
Of SGA’s 100+ radio licenses, 33 were up for renewal in 2022. These licenses have either been re-granted or are pending approval by the FCC. All other SGA licenses expire in 2027, 2028, or 2029.
**MANAGEMENT OVERVIEW**
Edward Christian was the CEO of Saga Communications for over 2 decades before he passed away in August 2022.
Warren Lada: Interim CEO. Formerly COO of Saga Communications and a current board member.
Samuel Bush: CFO. Has been with the company for over a decade.
Christopher Forgy: SVP Operations
**MARKET OVERVIEW**
SGA operates in the radio sector. Radio listenership has remained consistent up until 2020. In 2020, 83% of Americans ages 12 or older listened to terrestrial radio in a given week, a figure that dropped slightly from 89% in 2019. The decrease coincided with a sharp decrease in automobile use during the COVID-19 pandemic.
More than 244.5 million American adults listen to the radio each month. Audiences are becoming more diverse with more than 45 million Hispanic listeners and more than 35 million Black listeners a month.
Competitors include: Townsquare Media, Audacy, Cumulus, iHeart, Spanish broadcasting, and others.
Broadcasting companies can only own up to 8 stations within a specific market. FCC licenses are granted based upon a two-step renewal process. The FCC must find the radio license was used to serve the public interest and secondly no serious violations occurred.
Marketing analytics firm Cross Screen Media had been projecting a bullish $8.8 billion in advertising buys for the 2022 midterms (by way of comparison, spending was $9.5 billion during the 2020 presidential election and $3.9 billion for the 2018 midterms).
As of August 1st, 2022, $3.6bn has been spent on mid-term elections.
Radio advertising spend has totaled $100m as of August.
**GROWTH DRIVERS (Catalysts)**
**Super voting control by the former CEO has been terminated due to his passing**
Ed Christian held 100% of SGA’s Class B stock. Class B stock had super voting control. This allowed Ed to control all company and board decisions.
Class A shares received 1 vote per share. Class B shares received 10 votes per share.
Upon the death of Ed Christian, his Class B shares will transition to Class A shares, thus dissolving the dual classes and super voting control.
**Dual share class has collapsed into one share class**
The radio sector has historically had a dual share class and super voting structure.
SGA will now be one of the only radio stocks with a single share class and no super voting control.
With a single share class and no super-voting control, SGA is ripe for an activist investor to take a position or for an acquisition by other media companies or PE.
Townsquare Media: TSQ has two classes of shares with Class B receiving 10 votes pers share.
Cumulus: Class A and Class B stock.
Audacy: Class A, B, and C stock.
iHeart Radio: Class A and Class B stock.
**Near-term revenue growth driven by mid-term political advertising spend**
Mid-term elections are held in November 2022.
Political advertising spend is expected to top the 2018 mid-terms and 2020 presidential election.
Mid-term elections drive increased local advertising spend more than national.
Sinclair, Townsquare, Cumulus, and others have signaled strong Q3 and Q4 numbers driven by political revenue in recently earnings calls.
**FINANCIALS**
Annual revenue peaked in 2016 at $142m. In 2020, revenue declined significantly to $95m.
Radio listenership is highly tied to automobile use. With no one driving in 2020, it caused advertising revenue to decline.
Annual revenue has since recovered in 2021 and 2022.
Total gross revenue resulting from national advertising in fiscal 2021 was approximately $13,138,000 or 12% of SGA’s gross revenue
Revenue has recovered to pre-pandemic levels. Digital revenue has grown from $3.7m in 2019 to $6.3m in 2021. 2022 is projected to generate $8.7m.
Edward Christian’s average annual cash compensation was: $2.1m (Interim CEO salary of $750K).
SGA’s annual historic SG&A was $10m. A reduction of Edward’s salary will have a significant and immediate impact on EBITDA.
EPS has historically been positive up to 2020. EPS has since recovered.
SGA has no long-term debt: “On October 27, 2021, we used $10 million from funds generated by operations to voluntarily pay down the remaining amount on our Revolving Credit Facility.”
SGA has $54m in cash.
SGA pays, on average, a $.20 cent quarterly dividend.
**INVESTMENT THESIS**
I believe SGA is situated for an activist investor or acquisition in the near-term.
The collapse of dual share classes and removal of super-voting control opens SGA to new investors.
SGA’s fixed assets generate significant free cash flow and with zero debt, SGA could be appealing for PE or a competitor to acquire them.
SGA’s largest shareholder is Towerview LLC at 22%. Towerview could acquired SGA or force a sales process.
Towerview is 100% controlled by the Tisch family. The Tisch family own the Loews Hotel company along with a variety of other companies and the New York Giants (net worth is $6bn). Towerview LLC is managed by Daniel Tisch. Saga Communications is the second largest holding of Towerview LLC.
With super-voting control dissolved, it opens a variety of ways management, or an activist investor could generate value:
Issue a special dividend
Restart their share repurchase program
Increase their own M&A activity
Dividend recap
Sale lease back on towers and real estate
Increase their quarterly dividend
**VALUATION & COMPS**
SGA currently trades evenly to its sector peers and certain median multiples. SGA is trading on a lower EV/EBITDA multiple compared to peers and the sector. SGA trades at a 20% discount on a median TTM EV/EBITDA multiple compared to radio peer comps.
SGA is also one of the only radio stocks to pay a dividend.
SGA’s share priced increased 12%+ on August 19th due to the CEO passing.
The median EV/EBITDA multiple for acquisitions is 8.5x. This is based on historical transactions.
I used a Sum of the Parts analysis to value Saga Communications. I came to a value through splitting the parts into the operating business, real estate, and towers. Radio stocks have typically been valued based on an EV/EBITDA multiple. SGA’s current market cap is $165m.
Using historical data, I projected revenue to reach $117m in 2022 and EBITDA to reach $23.5m.
I used SGA’s current land value, building value, and tower value. SGA’s land value has most likely not been grossed up to reflect today’s value. I assumed SGA’s buildings are overvalued due to their age. I assumed SGA’s tower value is undervalued based on historic transaction comps. I removed Equipment, furniture, and vehicles from my valuation
**Downside Risk**
If no catalyst emerges driving SGA’s share price upward, the downside risk is low.
Downside risk is mitigated by potentially robust political revenue in Q3 and Q4, and the stock’s 100 day moving average of $23.97. This implies a downside of 13%.
Saga Communications traded between $30-$35/share in 2019 before COVID. Since Oct 2020, SGA has been on an upward trend.
**INVESTMENT MERITS & RISKS**
**Merits**
Experienced management team.
Strong business fundamentals.
Political advertising cycle in the near-term.
Only radio stock with one share class.
Termination of super-voting control.
Private equity dry powder is higher than any point in history.
Historic consolidation in the radio sector.
**Risks**
Macro environment continues to worsen. A recession decreases advertising/marketing spend.
Private equity lags public markets and could significantly scale back M&A activity.
Rate increase will increase the cost of debt.
Interim CEO transitions to FT CEO.
Management and board don’t act and let the interim CEO run the business as before.
Radio continues to slowly lose advertising dollar share.
Digital revenue grows slower than expected and doesn’t make up for lost Radio revenue.
Low trading volume. Average daily volume is 10K shares. Large purchases could have a significant impact on our entry and exit price.
Position: I own shares in SGA
| 1,661,877,811
|
2022-08-30 16:43:31
|
smdauber
| 1
| 7
| 0.55
|
Company Analysis
|
/r/stocks/comments/x1nwsu/radio_isnt_deadyet/
|
https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/x1nwsu/radio_isnt_deadyet/
|
stocks
|
3m
|
x0e9wl
|
$SHYF - The Shift Group - A first look
|
*cross-posted to* r/ValueInvesting
The Shift Group ($SHYF) is a company that manufacturers chassis for specialty vehicles and assemblies for the commercial vehicle (including last-mile delivery, specialty service and vocation-specific upfit segments) and recreational vehicle industries. They've been in business since 1975. They split their business into two reportable segments: Fleet Vehicles and Services (‘‘FVS’’) and Specialty Vehicles (‘‘SV’’), and they own: Utilimaster, Royal Truck Body, DuraMag, Blue Arc, Magnum, Strobes-R-Us, Spartan RV Chassis, and Builtmore Contract Manufacturing. Commercial vehicles are sold under the Aeromaster®, Velocity, Trademaster®, and Utilivan® product brand names. The industry sector is cyclical, but they report that their diversification across several sub-sectors reduces the overall risk becuase of the various markets served tend to have different cyclicality.
They've recently introduced Blue Arc, a division that is building is a complete battery-electric, Class 3 truck. As of this writing and with production planned to start on 2023, they are the only company specifically in the Class 3 EV Chassis environment. Class 3 vans weigh 10,001 to 14,000 pounds and have additional licensing requirements over Class 2 vehicles. In general, they are designed to last 15 years or more and meet warehouse dock heights for loading and unloading.
The FVS segment accounts for 66% of the sales, while the SV segement makes up the other 34%. Over the past five years sales have increased by $587.6 million, a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 25.2%, while income from continuing operations has grown by $52.5 million, a CAGR of 41.4%, and Adjusted EBITDA has grown by $76.4 million, a CAGR of 35.9%.
On February 1, 2020, they completed the sale of their Emergency Response Vehicle (ERV) business. In September 2020, that deal was finalized with a recognized loss on sale of $3.3m for the year ended December 31, 2020. The ERV business included operations in Charlotte, Michigan, and operations in Brandon, South Dakota; Snyder and Neligh, Nebraska; and Ephrata, Pennsylvania. This segment had been a losing proposition for a number of years.
**Specific Risk Factors to the business**:
* **Concentrated customer base/sales**: In 2021, Amazon accounted for 25.1 percent of consolidated sales. Their top 10 customers accounted for 60.6 percent of sales. I believe they are diversifying their customer base, but as I'm writing this I am struggling to find the numbers to support my memory.
* **Implementing a New Information Technology System**: short-term issue. Multiple locations are being upgrade to a new system. It could affect production if something goes catastrophically wrong. Having been through bad ERP software changes, I think this a low risk to the long-term.
* **Supply Chain Disruption**: This is simply a problem for everyone right now. If they somehow fall behind as things improve in the future, then this could be a serious issue.
* **Rising Interest Rates and Material Costs**: Aluminum and energy costs are increasing. At this time analysts are projecting decreased EPS in 2023. It could be a rough 12-24 months in the market as a result. This is not really a problem for a long-term investor. Could be more of an opporuntity if it comes to that.
**Some of the numbers**:
* Market Cap: 873.23M (current)
* PE Ratio: 20.92 (current)
* PS Ratio: 0.88 (current)
* P/FCF: 34.03 (as of 12/2021)
* Free cash flow in the first two quarters of 2022 have declined, however, this seems to be an annual trend. I believe they front load some of their annual cash outflows. I'm still working on this hypothesis.
* Current Ratio: 1.74 (current)
* Quick Ratio: 0.56 (current)
* Debt / Equity: 0.58 (current)
* ROE: 17.60%
* ROA: 9.30%
* ROIC: 17.20%
**Thesis**
This company has very little debt and nearly $1billion in sales backlog. This is a 100% increase since the prior year with a 46.7% increase in Revenue YoY. I believe it is well positioned in the inflationary environment we find ourselves in. I believe they have brand recognition in their sector, and a first mover advantage in the subset of Class 3 EV vehicles. They have a tremendous capital allocator in CEO Daryl Adams. He has laid out a sold plan for this company since coming on board (this is also a weakness to the thesis, if he leaves).
A Value Investors Club write up by a long-time member states, *"Growth in the size of major fleet cariers from 250,000 units in 2020 to 450,000 in 2025.(12% CAGR). The growth is from a 100k retiring/replacement cycle and 200k market growth. This is all per a comissioned 'third party study'. The growth is expected to come from a 7-10% CAGR in parcel delivery volume via growth in e-commerce through 2025. The company estimates that Covid had pulled e-commerce adoption curve forward by 2-3 years."* In the past 6 years, Revenue had grown at a 16% CAGR. This leads me to believe they are positioned to take advantage of this projected growth. Optimistically, they'll increase their market share.
**Valuation**
I have two simplified valuations that put the current intrinsic value between $32-$40 per share. Due to my inexperience I apply a \~40% margin of safety, which puts it at a buy between around $20.00 to $24.00 per share.
**What do you think?**
* What do you feel I've gotten right?
* What do you feel I've gotten wrong?
* What have I missed entirely?
*I do not currently hold any shares of this company.*
| 1,661,743,545
|
2022-08-29 03:25:45
|
Yo_Biff
| 8
| 3
| 0.84
|
Company Analysis
|
/r/stocks/comments/x0e9wl/shyf_the_shift_group_a_first_look/
|
https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/x0e9wl/shyf_the_shift_group_a_first_look/
|
stocks
|
3m
|
x02mdo
|
3M Earplug Lawsuit: What will be the in store for 3M and what can history teach us?
|
3M is being sued for manufacture of faulty ear plugs leading to hearing loss amongst veterans. Currently there are approximately 270,000 individuals seeking damages.
So far,16 bellweather cases have gone through trial. In 6 cases, the judge ruled in favor of 3M (no payout). In 10 cases, the judge ruled in favor of the plaintiff (1.1 million to 77 million).
Miller and Zois, the law firm representing some of the veterans, estimate settlement payout between 25,000 and 300,000 dollars. Assuming 25,000 payout per case, that adds up to 6.7 billion. In addition, an unknown portion of those effected may opt out of any settlement, preferring to pursue their individual case especially given the large sums awarded in the bellweather cases.
Now, I want to look at the Roundup lawsuit because this is another case where a product (a herbicide trade-named Roundup) has harmed consumers (causing cancer). The first case was filed in 2015. Bayer, the parent company of Monsanto (producer of Roundup), has paid out over 11 billion dollars since to settle 80% of the approximately 100,000 initial cases. However, with new individuals joining in daily, it was confirmed in a Bayer earnings call that 31,000 suits remain active in 2022.
My take on the 3M situation is that this is not over even if a settlement is reached this year. Those who believe they are entitled to high payout will forge ahead with individual suits. Taken together, the earplug debacle will weigh on 3M stock well into 2023 (they tried to escape punishment by declaring bankruptcy of their earplug subsidiary but it failed). Now enough with the negatives lets look at the positives.
NHL (non Hodgkin's lymphoma) is an aggressive cancer that is fatal in 40% of cases within 10 years. Millions were exposed (essentially unknown maximum number) and Bayer is on the hook every time another exposure turns into NHL. With the 3M situation, we know 300,000 were exposed before the earplugs were pulled. Therefore, 3M does not have this massive tail risk of new cases constantly cropping up.
History seems provide context that 3M will move on from their earplug debacle in 2023 (they are working towards settlement this year and I have no reason to believe otherwise). They are a solid company and at this price is an absolute steal.
| 1,661,712,022
|
2022-08-28 18:40:22
|
Longjumping_Rip_1475
| 38
| 44
| 0.78
| null |
/r/stocks/comments/x02mdo/3m_earplug_lawsuit_what_will_be_the_in_store_for/
|
https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/x02mdo/3m_earplug_lawsuit_what_will_be_the_in_store_for/
|
stocks
|
3m
|
wsmwn8
|
Missing the 3Y chart
|
On almost any investment platform you can filter the chart of any stock by 1D, 5D, 1M, 3M, 6M, YTD, 1Y, 5Y and Max. I can't imagine I'm the only one missing the 3Y option. Especially since covid.
It's not like those platforms don't have space left in the bar above the chart. Yahoo finance, Google stocks, you name it. They often have room left over for an additional option.
What do you guys think?
| 1,660,938,006
|
2022-08-19 19:40:06
|
Thymooo
| 13
| 4
| 0.85
| null |
/r/stocks/comments/wsmwn8/missing_the_3y_chart/
|
https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/wsmwn8/missing_the_3y_chart/
|
stocks
|
3m
|
wqc37h
|
3M Co. may face more than $100 billion in losses and potential bankruptcy due to faulty earplugs
|
3M Co. faces more than $100 billion in losses and bankruptcy because of lawsuits brought by veterans who blame their hearing problems on faulty earplugs, according to a litigation consultant hired by lawyers suing the industrial conglomerate.
Initial results from a handful of test cases shows 3M would be swamped by losses should the more than 230,000 lawsuits related to the company’s military earplugs business go forward, the plaintiff’s adviser J.B. Heaton testified in bankruptcy court Tuesday.
“It is more and more likely within the next several years we’ll see a 3M bankruptcy, yes,” Heaton told US Bankruptcy Judge Jeffrey J. Graham during a hearing in federal court in Indianapolis.
“We strongly disagree with this unsupported and clearly flawed speculation,” company communications manager Sean Lynch said in an emailed statement. “3M has committed to provide $1 billion to a trust for claimants determined to be entitled to compensation.”
Some advocates for the suing soldiers want Graham to block 3M from paying any shareholder dividends, buying back any of its stock or spinning off any assets, if the judge also decides to halt the lawsuits.
Restricting how 3M spends its cash will protect money and other assets that could be used to compensate soldiers who have had their hearing damaged by the earplugs, the advocates said in court papers.
The company has a paid shareholders a regular dividend for at least a decade. Currently the quarterly payment is $1.49 per share.
Company lawyers disputed Heaton’s findings during the hearing, arguing that the 19 cases in which juries returned verdicts are outliers and cannot be used to extrapolate results for the other cases. Heaton, a former trial lawyer who now studies corporate litigation, acknowledged that the sample is small and that a judge may conclude $100 billion is not realistic.
3M is in federal court trying to convince Graham to halt the lawsuits while the company’s earplugs subsidiary reorganizes in bankruptcy.
Last month, the company put its Aearo Technologies unit into bankruptcy in Indianapolis as a way to resolve the claims. Under Chapter 11 rules, Aearo is automatically entitled to freeze lawsuits it faces, but because 3M itself didn’t file bankruptcy a judge must agree to give the industrial conglomerate the same protection.
The bankruptcy is Aearo Technologies LLC, 22-02890, United States Bankruptcy Court for the Southern District of Indiana (Indianapolis).
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/3m-faces-100-billion-losses-162828827.html
| 1,660,700,738
|
2022-08-17 01:45:38
|
rockinoutwith2
| 770
| 191
| 0.87
|
Company News
|
/r/stocks/comments/wqc37h/3m_co_may_face_more_than_100_billion_in_losses/
|
https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/wqc37h/3m_co_may_face_more_than_100_billion_in_losses/
|
stocks
|
3m
|
wpslj4
|
Notification from broker on 3M, exchange for Neogen - doesn't seem worth it.
|
OK, I found it - as below. Is anyone taking up 3M up on the Neogen stock? Neogen P/E ratio as of this morning is pretty damned high. P/E ratio 49.82
Key elements of the exchange offer include:
* 3M stockholders have the option to exchange some, all or none of their shares of 3M common stock for shares of common stock of SpinCo, subject to proration as described below. Shares of SpinCo common stock will convert automatically into the right to receive shares of Neogen common stock at the closing of the Merger, which is expected to occur promptly after completion of the exchange offer.
* Tendering 3M stockholders are expected to receive approximately $107.53 of Neogen common stock for every $100.00 of shares of 3M common stock tendered and accepted in the exchange offer, subject to the upper limit described below.
* 3M will determine the prices at which shares of 3M common stock and shares of SpinCo common stock (and ultimately shares of Neogen common stock) will be exchanged by reference to the simple arithmetic average of the daily volume-weighted average prices of shares of 3M common stock on the New York Stock Exchange and shares of Neogen common stock on the Nasdaq Global Select Market on each of the last three full trading days ending on and including the second full trading day prior to the expiration date of the exchange offer (which are currently expected to be August 25, August 26 and August 29, 2022).
* 3M currently expects that approximately 108.3 million shares of SpinCo common stock will be available in the exchange offer, with the final number dependent on the number of outstanding shares of Neogen common stock outstanding immediately prior to the closing of the Merger. The number of shares of 3M common stock that will be accepted in the exchange offer will depend on the final exchange ratio, the number of shares of SpinCo common stock offered and the number of shares of 3M common stock tendered. Based on recent trading prices of shares of 3M common stock and Neogen common stock, and assuming the issuance of 108.3 million shares of SpinCo common stock, if the exchange offer were fully subscribed, approximately 15.7 million shares of 3M common stock would be accepted for exchange in the exchange offer.
* The exchange offer and withdrawal rights are scheduled to expire at 11:59 p.m., New York City time, on August 31, 2022, unless the exchange offer is extended or terminated.
\------------
| 1,660,651,612
|
2022-08-16 12:06:52
|
HaveBlue_2
| 25
| 21
| 0.9
| null |
/r/stocks/comments/wpslj4/notification_from_broker_on_3m_exchange_for/
|
https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/wpslj4/notification_from_broker_on_3m_exchange_for/
|
stocks
|
3m
|
wp317p
|
How can I get my dad to stop day trading?
|
My dad is currently addicted to stocks and it seems to be worsening.
I keep telling him to put his money in an index fund but he keeps pulling out his MBA and venture capital classes he took from Georgia tech and tells me to shut up.
Although I tell him statistically most people lose money from day trading he keeps acting like he can beat the market with individual stocks (he says that in the most literal way possible) and He’s going one step further and making a trading bot now.
I know he’s my dad and I don’t really want to fight him but I’m really worried about him seemingly gambling away his life savings. He is soon going to retire from his data-analytics job.
And although I know that some very talented people make money out of trading bots and stuff but It really is going against traditional knowledge on how to invest as a individual.
Previously posted this on WSB and immediately got a comment to put all the money in bbby. It was fun and all but I’d really like some actual advice
Some additional context: I invest in individual stocks, bonds, and etfs.
I am a minor and a highschooler.
My investments total around 30000$
I read different stuff like john bogle, peter lynch, graham and etc to stuff on investopia.
my dad is a data scientist who works as a r&d researcher or whatever.
He has a portfolio of like 300,000.
Another edit:
He is a investor that often swings stocks
(What I was referring to the “day trading”)
He has stuff like TSLA and google and 3M
And lots of dividend stocks I recommended.
I just can’t get him to bury the idea of actually making a day trading bot and swing trading.
My portfolio is 70% stocks (etfs, reits, blue chips, dividend sfocks) and 30% bonds. (Corporate&treasury)
To be a little more clear:
He’s not retiring with 300k. He has real estate and if I recall correctly he has more in cash to what he has in stocks. His future plan is to expand the stock portfolio.
Lol you guys are kidding me right?
You keep asking me for his returns
He’s up 1% this year. So?
He got hit by the crash and bought the dip
That doesn’t mean he’s capable of making long term returns 😂
Who cares if he made money or not his logic is still flawed
I literally had some dude post this on r/Gatech saying this is likely satire. I swear to god this is real. Why tf do you guys not take this seriously? This is a real problem to me
I told my dad, he instantly downloaded reddit, and is currently going on a rampage to actually find this page. Thank you for all your kind opinions (sarcasm) and have a good day!
| 1,660,578,656
|
2022-08-15 15:50:56
|
gone_bad_carrot
| 1,123
| 1,225
| 0.69
| null |
/r/stocks/comments/wp317p/how_can_i_get_my_dad_to_stop_day_trading/
|
https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/wp317p/how_can_i_get_my_dad_to_stop_day_trading/
|
stocks
|
3m
|
wou7sx
|
Tesla has built 3 million vehicles, a third of those in China, Elon Musk says
|
Tesla Inc. has produced more than 3 million vehicles, and a third of them have been built in China, according to Elon Musk. On Sunday, the Tesla chief executive congratulated the company’s Shanghai “gigafactory” in a tweet: “Congrats Giga Shanghai on making millionth car! Total Teslas made now over 3M.”
The milestone came just a few weeks after Musk said Tesla’s factory in Fremont, Calif., produced its 2 millionth vehicle. Tesla also has new factories in Austin, Texas, and Berlin, which Musk in June referred to as “money furnaces.” The Shanghai factory opened in 2018, but it has been plagued by temporary shutdowns due to COVID-19 restrictions and parts shortages. In July, Tesla said it delivered nearly 255,000 vehicles in the second quarter, down about 18% from the previous quarter. Still, the electric-auto maker beat Wall Street’s expectations in its second-quarter earnings, defying projections that Shanghai shutdowns would hurt its bottom line.
When earnings were released, Musk said the company had been in “supply-chain hell for several years,” but barring a surprise, “we have the potential for a record-breaking second half of the year.”
In that report, Tesla said the Shanghai factory achieved “the highest vehicle production month in our history” in June. Tesla shares TSLA, +4.68% have rallied 25% over the past month, as it gets set for a 3-for-1 stock split Aug. 24, but they are still down about 15% year to date, compared to the S&P 500’s SPX, +1.73% 10% decline this year.
| 1,660,552,166
|
2022-08-15 08:29:26
|
nickytotherescue
| 545
| 338
| 0.9
|
Company News
|
/r/stocks/comments/wou7sx/tesla_has_built_3_million_vehicles_a_third_of/
|
https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/wou7sx/tesla_has_built_3_million_vehicles_a_third_of/
|
stocks
|
3m
|
wkgpog
|
Roblox stumbles 16% after bookings decline, user growth misses
|
Roblox (NYSE:RBLX) has tumbled after the release of second-quarter earnings where the company's bookings declined and it reported a bigger loss than expected, and user growth fell short.
Net bookings fell 3.8% to $639.9M, and average daily active users rose just 21% to 52.2M, missing expectations for 54M. Hours engaged rose 16% to 11.3B, and average bookings per DAU fell 21% to $12.25.
For the second quarter, net cash from operations was $26.5M, while free cash flow was -$57.3M.
The company took a "significant COVID bump" in Q4 but have been making sequential improvements since, it says. While the quarterly bookings fell, the June total toward the end of the quarter was up 8% year-over-year to $217M (or up 12% adjusting for currency). May bookings had fallen 9% year-over-year, it said.
As for outlook, it pointed to strong trends in July, when it says bookings fell between $243M-$247M - up 8-10% year-over-year, while the company is expected to post sub-5% growth for the entire third quarter. July DAUs were up 26% to 58.5M, and hours engaged were up 25% to 4.7B. (Average bookings per DAU fell accordingly, to $4.15-$4.22.)
“We are driving record levels of users and engagement globally as we execute on our innovation roadmap and broaden the appeal of Roblox across geographies and age groups,” said CEO David Baszucki. “We continue to make progress on key operational and product initiatives to enhance the long-term value of the Roblox platform.”
The company will be discussing trends in more detail at next month's Investor Day.
| 1,660,084,273
|
2022-08-09 22:31:13
|
rockinoutwith2
| 97
| 48
| 0.95
|
Company News
|
/r/stocks/comments/wkgpog/roblox_stumbles_16_after_bookings_decline_user/
|
https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/wkgpog/roblox_stumbles_16_after_bookings_decline_user/
|
stocks
|
3m
|
wga7lx
|
3M Commences Split-Off Exchange Offer for Food Safety Business
|
Today 3M announced "3M Commences Split-Off Exchange Offer for Food Safety Business". May someone, pls, explain what does it mean for those who hold 3M stocks and never faced with this issue. What will be with stock 3M if holder isn't agreed to exchange their common 3M stocks? Does it mean that the price of 3M will go down due to part of company's business is splitting-off?
[https://finance.yahoo.com/news/3m-commences-split-off-exchange-164100919.html](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/3m-commences-split-off-exchange-164100919.html)
Thanks!
| 1,659,642,001
|
2022-08-04 19:40:01
|
gns_a
| 26
| 15
| 0.87
|
Industry Question
|
/r/stocks/comments/wga7lx/3m_commences_splitoff_exchange_offer_for_food/
|
https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/wga7lx/3m_commences_splitoff_exchange_offer_for_food/
|
stocks
|
3m
|
w8isxz
|
(7/26) Tuesday's Pre-Market Stock Movers & News
|
#Good morning traders and investors of the r/stocks sub! Welcome to Tuesday! Here are your pre-market stock movers & news on this Tuesday, July the 26th, 2022-
*****
# [Stock futures fall after Walmart cuts forecast, says inflation hit consumer spending](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/25/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html)
*****
> U.S. stock futures fell on Tuesday morning after Walmart cut its profit forecast, sending retail stocks tumbling in the premarket.
*****
> Dow Jones Industrial Average futures fell by 141 points, or 0.4%. S&P 500 futures lost 0.4% also and Nasdaq 100 futures declined 0.5%.
*****
> A late Monday announcement from Walmart, which cut its quarterly and full-year profit estimates because of rising food inflation, alarmed investors who deliberated the implications for other retail stocks. The big-box retailer said higher prices are spurring consumers to pull back on general merchandise spending, particularly in apparel.
*****
> Walmart plunged 9% in early morning trading and dragged other retailers with it. Target dropped 5.2%, and Amazon fell 3.7%. Kohl’s and Dollar General lost 4.5% and 3.6%, respectively, while Costco shed 3.1%.
*****
> “Clearly, they have the wrong stuff, and they have to sell it more aggressively to clear that out, which looks like it’s going to take a pretty dramatic hit as a result of that,” Jeremy Bryan, senior portfolio manager at Gradient Investments, said during CNBC’s “Closing Bell: Overtime.”
*****
> “The question is, how does this relate to the rest of the discretionary space?” Bryan added.
*****
> General Motors fell 3.6% in premarket trading after the company missed earnings estimates, citing supply chain disruptions stemming from Russia’s war on Ukraine and global Covid lockdowns.
*****
> Elsewhere, Coca-Cola shares rose 1.3% premarket after the topped earnings and revenue expectations, citing recovering sales volume that dropped in the pandemic and higher pricing.
*****
> Shares of McDonald’s eked traded just above the flat line in early trading following mixed second-quarter results, in which net sales were hurt in part by the closure of locations in Russia and Ukraine, but international growth elsewhere fueled a rise same-store sales.
*****
> General Electric, UPS and 3M also reported strong quarterly earnings Tuesday.
*****
> Traders are bracing for an onslaught of mega-cap tech earnings and economic data this week, as well as the outcome of the Federal Reserve meeting, that will help Wall Street direct its expectations for the rest of the year.
*****
> “I think that there’s going to be a bifurcated market,” VantageRock Capital’s Avery Sheffield said during CNBC’s “Closing Bell: Overtime.” “I think the bottom might be in certain stocks, but nowhere in others. So this actually could be one of the most dynamic earnings seasons we’ve seen in a long time.”
*****
> Stocks traded in a narrow range during Monday’s session, with the S&P 500 adding 0.1%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 90.75 points, or 0.3%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite lagged, sliding 0.4%. All of the major averages are on track for their best month of the year.
*****
> On Tuesday, the Federal Reserve will commence its two-day policy meeting. Traders are widely expecting a three-quarter percentage point hike.
*****
> On the economic front, investors are expecting the latest reading of the Case-Shiller Home Price Index at 9 a.m. ET. The consumer confidence report and new home sales data are due out at 10 a.m. ET.
*****
#STOCK FUTURES CURRENTLY:
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR STOCK FUTURES CHARTS!](https://finviz.com/futures.ashx)**)
*****
#YESTERDAY'S MARKET MAP:
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR YESTERDAY'S MARKET MAP!](https://i.imgur.com/vGnEBSV.png)**)
*****
#TODAY'S MARKET MAP:
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR TODAY'S MARKET MAP!](https://finviz.com/map.ashx)**)
*****
#YESTERDAY'S S&P SECTORS:
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR YESTERDAY'S S&P SECTORS CHART!](https://i.imgur.com/1HUoy03.png)**)
*****
#TODAY'S S&P SECTORS:
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR TODAY'S S&P SECTORS CHART!](https://finviz.com/groups.ashx)**)
*****
#TODAY'S ECONOMIC CALENDAR:
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR TODAY'S ECONOMIC CALENDAR!](https://i.imgur.com/mnOY9Dx.png)**)
*****
#THIS WEEK'S ECONOMIC CALENDAR:
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR THIS WEEK'S ECONOMIC CALENDAR!](https://i.imgur.com/8A0pSes.png)**)
*****
#THIS WEEK'S UPCOMING IPO'S:
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR THIS WEEK'S UPCOMING IPO'S!](https://i.imgur.com/9SMoEtZ.png)**)
*****
#THIS WEEK'S EARNINGS CALENDAR:
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR THIS WEEK'S EARNINGS CALENDAR!](https://i.imgur.com/Eq5rpsQ.png)**)
*****
#THIS MORNING'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS CALENDAR:
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR THIS MORNING'S EARNINGS CALENDAR!](https://i.imgur.com/PntL4hg.jpg)**)
*****
#EARNINGS RELEASES BEFORE THE OPEN TODAY:
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR THIS MORNING'S EARNINGS RELEASES LINK #1!](https://i.imgur.com/P2mKEic.png)**)
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR THIS MORNING'S EARNINGS RELEASES LINK #2!](https://i.imgur.com/nyvklT5.png)**)
*****
#EARNINGS RELEASES AFTER THE CLOSE TODAY:
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR THIS AFTERNOON'S EARNINGS RELEASES LINK #1!](https://i.imgur.com/3CQp67h.png)**)
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR THIS AFTERNOON'S EARNINGS RELEASES LINK #2!](https://i.imgur.com/FoS6pQ4.png)**)
*****
#YESTERDAY'S ANALYST UPGRADES/DOWNGRADES:
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR YESTERDAY'S ANALYST UPGRADES/DOWNGRADES LINK #1!](https://i.imgur.com/VmQNwbB.png)**)
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR YESTERDAY'S ANALYST UPGRADES/DOWNGRADES LINK #2!](https://i.imgur.com/xdJ5tp6.png)**)
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR YESTERDAY'S ANALYST UPGRADES/DOWNGRADES LINK #3!](https://i.imgur.com/XXyVuA5.png)**)
*****
#YESTERDAY'S INSIDER TRADING FILINGS:
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR YESTERDAY'S INSIDER TRADING FILINGS!](https://i.imgur.com/WUA2AtC.png)**)
*****
#TODAY'S DIVIDEND CALENDAR:
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR TODAY'S DIVIDEND CALENDAR!](https://i.imgur.com/PC9AQUc.png)**)
*****
#THIS MORNING'S STOCK NEWS MOVERS:
######(**source: [cnbc.com](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/26/stocks-making-the-biggest-moves-premarket-walmart-general-motors-polaris-and-more.html)**)
*****
> **Walmart (WMT)** – Walmart slumped 9.5% in the premarket after cutting its outlook for the current quarter and full year. The retail giant said higher prices for food and fuel are prompting consumers to cut back, and it’s had to cut prices at its stores to reduce excess inventory. Other retail stocks fell during premarket trading in the wake of the Walmart warning, including a 3.6% drop for Amazon (AMZN), 5.2% for Target (TGT) and 2.5% for Home Depot (HD).
> #**STOCK SYMBOL:** WMT
> * [CLICK HERE FOR CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=WMT&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)
> ######(**[CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!](http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/WMT)**)
*****
> **General Motors (GM)** – The automaker’s stock fell 3.7% in premarket trading after quarterly earnings fell short of estimates, though revenue was better than expected. GM also said it was preparing for an economic slowdown and hiring fewer people.
> #**STOCK SYMBOL:** GM
> * [CLICK HERE FOR CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=GM&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)
> ######(**[CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!](http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/GM)**)
*****
> **Polaris (PII)** – The recreational vehicle maker’s shares rallied 3.5% in premarket action after its quarterly profit beat Street forecasts, although revenue fell short. Polaris said supply chain issues and inflationary pressures eased during the quarter.
> #**STOCK SYMBOL:** PII
> * [CLICK HERE FOR CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=PII&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)
> ######(**[CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!](http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/PII)**)
*****
> **3M (MMM)** – 3M jumped 4% in the premarket following a flurry of news, including better-than-expected profit and revenue for the second quarter and the announcement that it would spin off its health care business.
> #**STOCK SYMBOL:** MMM
> * [CLICK HERE FOR CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=MMM&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)
> ######(**[CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!](http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/MMM)**)
*****
> **General Electric (GE)** – GE added 3.9% in the premarket after reporting much better than expected second-quarter profit and revenue. GE’s results were boosted by a strong recovery in its jet engine business.
> #**STOCK SYMBOL:** GE
> * [CLICK HERE FOR CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=GE&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)
> ######(**[CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!](http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/GE)**)
*****
> **Raytheon Technologies (RTX)** – The defense contractor reported second-quarter earnings that were better than expected, but revenue was slightly short of Wall Street forecasts. Raytheon said it is dealing with macroeconomic and supply chain challenges, but reaffirmed its full-year outlook. Raytheon fell 3.3% in the premarket.
> #**STOCK SYMBOL:** RTX
> * [CLICK HERE FOR CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=RTX&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)
> ######(**[CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!](http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/RTX)**)
*****
> **Unilever (UL)** – Unilever gained 2.3% in premarket action after raising its full-year sales forecast. Unilever – the seller of popular consumer brands like Dove Soap and Hellman’s mayonnaise – has been able to successfully raise prices to offset higher costs.
> #**STOCK SYMBOL:** UL
> * [CLICK HERE FOR CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=UL&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)
> ######(**[CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!](http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/UL)**)
*****
> **UBS (UBS)** – UBS tumbled 7.5% in the premarket after the Swiss bank reported a lower-than-expected quarterly profit. The bank’s bottom line was hurt by market turmoil which impacted its investment banking and wealth management businesses.
> #**STOCK SYMBOL:** UBS
> * [CLICK HERE FOR CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=UBS&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)
> ######(**[CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!](http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/UBS)**)
*****
> **Whirlpool (WHR)** – Whirlpool reported a quarterly loss, but its revenue and adjusted profit beat Wall Street forecasts. The overall loss was caused by the appliance maker’s exit from the Russian market. Whirlpool gained 1% in the premarket.
> #**STOCK SYMBOL:** WHR
> * [CLICK HERE FOR CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=WHT&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)
> ######(**[CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!](http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/WHR)**)
*****
#**FULL DISCLOSURE:**
> /u/bigbear0083 has no positions in any stocks mentioned. Reddit, moderators, and the author do not advise making investment decisions based on discussion in these posts. Analysis is not subject to validation and users take action at their own risk.
*****
#**DISCUSS!**
What's on everyone's radar for today's trading day ahead here at r/stocks?
*****
# **I hope you all have an excellent trading day ahead today on this Tuesday, July 26th, 2022! :)**
| 1,658,839,383
|
2022-07-26 12:43:03
|
bigbear0083
| 12
| 2
| 0.81
| null |
/r/stocks/comments/w8isxz/726_tuesdays_premarket_stock_movers_news/
|
https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/w8isxz/726_tuesdays_premarket_stock_movers_news/
|
stocks
|
3m
|
w7i1eu
|
Massive week for the markets...here's what's in store
|
It will be a busy week on both the micro and macro fronts. Second-quarter earnings season ramps up, as more than 150 S&P 500 firms report, including Big Tech. The Federal Reserve’s policy committee will announce an interest-rate decision on Wednesday afternoon, and economists will get a look at a bevy of new data.
**Monday 7/25**
Whirlpool, Vodafone Group, Range Resources, Newmont, NXP Semiconductors, and Philips release financial results.
**Tuesday 7/26**
Visa, UPS, Microsoft, Kimberly-Clark, Mondelez International, Unilever, Stryker, 3M, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Skechers, Raytheon Technologies, PulteGroup, Moody’s, McDonald’s, General Motors, Coca-Cola, Alphabet, and General Electric host earnings calls.
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index for May is released. Home prices are expected to rise 21.1% year over year, compared with April’s 21.2% gain.
The Conference Board releases its Consumer Confidence Index for July. Economists forecast a 97 reading, a drop from June’s 98.7.
The Census Bureau reports new residential home sales data for June. Consensus estimate is for a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 680,000 new units, versus 696,000 in May.
**Wednesday 7/27**
The Federal Open Market Committee announces its monetary-policy decision. The central bank is expected to raise the federal-funds rate by 75 basis points.
Meta Platforms, Bristol Myers Squibb, GSK, Boeing, Teladoc Health, Sherwin-Williams, Qualcomm, Humana, Ford Motor, Genuine Parts, CME Group, General Dynamics, Kraft Heinz, T-Mobile US, Etsy, Spotify Technology, and Danone report financial results.
The Census Bureau releases the preliminary durable goods report for June. Economists forecast that new orders increased 0.3% month over month from May’s 0.81% rise.
**Thursday 7/28**
Apple, [Amazon.com](https://Amazon.com), Samsung Electronics, Harley-Davidson, Volkswagen Group, Tilray Brands, Vivendi, Altria Group, Roku, Pfizer, Merck, Intel, Mastercard, Southwest Airlines, Honeywell International, Shell, and Northrop Grumman report financial results.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis releases its preliminary estimate for second-quarter 2022 gross domestic product. The forecast is for a 1.6% rate of growth, after a 1.6% contraction in the first quarter.
**Friday 7/29**
Weyerhaeuser, Phillips 66, Exxon Mobil, Procter & Gamble, Colgate-Palmolive, Chevron, AbbVie, and Sony discuss financial results.
The BEA reports personal income and spending data for June. Personal income is expected to rise 0.5% month over month, while spending is seen rising 1%. This compares with gains of 0.5% and 0.2%, respectively, in May.
The Federal Reserve reports the core personal-consumption expenditures price index for June. Consensus estimate is for the core PCE index to jump 4.8% year over year, compared with 4.7% in May.
[https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/apple-visa-microsoft-exxon-mobil-chipotle-and-other-stocks-for-investors-to-watch-this-week-51658689226?mod=home-page](https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/apple-visa-microsoft-exxon-mobil-chipotle-and-other-stocks-for-investors-to-watch-this-week-51658689226?mod=home-page)
| 1,658,732,578
|
2022-07-25 07:02:58
|
nickytotherescue
| 44
| 9
| 0.87
|
Resources
|
/r/stocks/comments/w7i1eu/massive_week_for_the_marketsheres_whats_in_store/
|
https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/w7i1eu/massive_week_for_the_marketsheres_whats_in_store/
|
stocks
|
3m
|
vrez0i
|
Sprouts Farmers Market - Can a boring company can be a good investment? $SFM
|
**Sprouts Farmers Market ($SFM)** is quite a boring company. However, boring companies can turn out to be great investments. Is SFM one of them?
The goal of this post is to analyze the company's fundamentals and provide insights into the business fundamentals, financials as well as valuation. Feel free to disagree with the analysis and share your views.
***Let's get started!***
​
**What is Sprouts Farmers Market?**
In a nutshell, it is a grocery store chain featuring an open layout with fresh produce at its heart. The company sources the produce locally which makes it less exposed to certain global supply chain issues. One of the components of its business model is its distribution centers. The produce from the local farmers initially goes to these centers and then is delivered to the individual stores. They aim to have one within a 250-mile (400 kilometers) radius of all of their stores. Currently, that's the case for 85% of their stores.
​
**How does a grocery store chain grow?**
I always try to simplify the way companies bring revenue in. In this case, the revenue would be equal to the # of stores multiplied by the ARPS (Average revenue per store), plus the eCommerce sales (currently 10% of the total revenue).
Let's start with the number of stores. This number grew from **285 at the end of 2017** to **374 at the end of 2021**. This net increase of almost 90 stores is outstanding, especially if we take into account that they've closed only 3 stores during the last 5 years. The company is doing a great job choosing good locations. As the growth depends hugely on the success of opening and operating new stores, this is a positive indicator.
​
Based on the available numbers, the revenue per store is flat for the last 5 years (a bit over $16m/store). However, this can be a bit misleading, especially since the company is focused on decreasing the store size from 30k square feet (2.8k square meters) to 23k square feet (2.15k square meters). Smaller stores would require a lower initial investment and come with lower operating costs. Hence, we cannot make any conclusion on the information that the average revenue per store is flat over a 5-years period.
​
**Key financial and operating points**
* The revenue has increased from **$4.7b in 2017** to **$6.1b in 2021**, an almost 7% average annual increase. During the same period, the gross margin increased from **34%** to **36%,** and the operating margin from **4.8%** to **5.5%.** The industry is known for having low margins, so we cannot forecast a substantial increase in this area. The management is aiming for a 6% operating margin, which is not far from the current level.
* What I personally find very interesting about the company is the development and improvements around their inventory management. The inventory turnover has improved from 13.5x to 14.7x and the average inventory per store has decreased from $0.81m to $0.71m (let's not forget, the average revenue/store remained flat).
* It is worth mentioning that roughly 16% of the company's revenue comes from their private label offering (Sprouts branded products). These products allow them to charge less to the final customer, yet the margins are either same or higher.
* Since 2015, 52m shares have been repurchased ($1.2b) leading to a 34% reduction of shares outstanding. The management has almost $600m remaining in the authorized repurchase program.
* As of Q1/2022, the company had $300m in cash, $250m in long-term debt, and $1.3m in capital leases.
**What's ahead of the company?**
The management is forecasting revenue growth of around 4% for 2022 but is aiming to grow the number of stores by 10% as of 2023. This is a big target, which means roughly 40 new stores are to be opened in 2023.
**The valuation**
I used a DCF model to estimate the company's value. The assumptions are listed below:
**Revenue growth:** 4% for the next 12 months, followed by 6% in the 4 years after that and declining over time to 3.16%.
**Operating margin**: To remain at the current level of 5.5%. The management is aiming for 6%, but they're not there yet. Could they reach that level? Absolutely! However, I am always using assumptions that the company can deliver with high probability. I'd rather be conservative than too optimistic and lose money.
**Discount rate**: Currently 4.84% (based on WACC - which is way too low due to its low beta), increasing to 10.9% over time (also due to the fact that the FED is raising the interest rate)
**Outcome**: $22.90 (Current share price $25.72)
\*Note: In the DCF calculation, the outstanding equity options are also taken into account.
​
**What if my assumptions are significantly wrong?**
Based on the assumptions stated above, the revenue will grow by 62% to $10b in the next 10 years and the operating margin remains at 5.5%.
Let's take a look at how the valuation of the company (per share) changes based on different assumptions related to the revenue 10 years from now and the operating margin:
|Revenue / Op. margin|5.0%|5.5%|6.0%|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|40% ($8.6b)|$18.5|$21.1|$23.8|
|62% ($10.0b)|$19.9|$22.9|$25.9|
|100% ($12.4b)|$22.3|$26.0|$29.6|
|130% ($14.2b)|$24.1|$28.3|$32.4|
Looking at the company's performance, I do like how it is evolving. It is growing through opening new stores and not through acquisitions, which makes it less risky as they're copying what is proven to be working. The inventory management has improved and the margins are looking great. Although I do not have a position in the company, I'll definitely consider opening one if the price drops below $20/share.
What are your thoughts?
| 1,656,962,111
|
2022-07-04 19:15:11
|
k_ristovski
| 57
| 44
| 0.86
|
Company Analysis
|
/r/stocks/comments/vrez0i/sprouts_farmers_market_can_a_boring_company_can/
|
https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/vrez0i/sprouts_farmers_market_can_a_boring_company_can/
|
stocks
|
3m
|
uq9hwd
|
An Overview of Musk's Proposed Twitter Acquisition and Discussion of Recent Events.
|
I want to focus on the recent developments in Musk's offer to acquire twitter, and some aspects not always discussed in 3 minute finance articles or headlines. But first, a refresher:
Elon Musk built a 9.2% stake in Twitter during the first few months of 2022. On April 20th, he offered to take Twitter Private recently at $54.20 per share, claiming he can unlock the company’s potential. Musk secured financing the next day and entered an agreement to buy twitter. Recently he announced the deal was “on hold” pending investigation of spam and bot accounts.
This recent development about bots is unusual, especially considering Musk’s proximity to Twitter. This should have been a known concern to Musk. One would think he would have investigated this before he agreed to purchase the company. So, what exactly is going on? Why the erratic behavior? To understand, we must first look at Musk’s financing:
Musk Secured a total of $46.5B in funding on April 21st. This includes: $13B of debt for Twitter the company, 12.5B in margin loans secured against Tesla stock, and $21B in equity investment from Musk.
The debt and margin financing has a variable interest rate of 3-month SOFR +3%, and will currently cost $1B in maintenance per year plus 5% amortization for both debt facilities. Twitter cash from operations was only $600M in 2021, and not likely to exceed $1B in 2022..
The $12.5B margin loan has an initial 20% LTV with a margin call at 35%. This will require $62.5B of Tesla shares to be pledged. The fall in Tesla’s stock price has made this facility unattractive. As of close Friday, Tesla was worth $769.85 per share. This equates to a pledge of 81.2M shares at current prices. Musk had 88.3M shares pledged as of 6/30/2021, this would bring the total to 169.5M of 173M shares. This is likely not very palatable for Musk or Tesla investors.
The $21B in cash required to complete the deal throws in an extra wrench. If he were to sell Tesla shares, he would have to sell at least $25B, likely more, to come up with $21B after tax. He can’t do this and pledge sufficient shares for his margin loan facility. Spacex is highly illiquid and likely not useful as collateral. His final option is to find additional investors to come up with the $21B. This is unlikely to happen, investors are already unwilling to buy Twitter at a 30% discount to Musk’s acquisition price with Musk as the largest shareholder, and Musk's claim that he “doesn’t care about the economics” does him no favors in this endeavor. There were reports he asked around the big PE firms, none of which were interested in equity. The debt load added in the first financing transaction will also make twitter equity even less attractive to investors.
On May 13th, Musk took to Twitter to say his acquisition was on hold pending investigation of the calculations of bots and spam accounts on twitter. There are no carve-outs in the acquisition agreement to allow him to do this. Further, to expedite the deal, he waived any right to view additional non-public financial and analytical data from Twitter. Twitter already discloses that their mDAU spam estimate may not be accurate.
Per Twitter’s most recent 10k:
>The numbers of mDAU presented in this Annual Report on Form 10-K are based on internal company data. While these numbers are based on what we believe to be reasonable estimates for the applicable period of measurement, there are inherent challenges in measuring usage and engagement across our large number of total accounts around the world. Furthermore, our metrics may be impacted by our information quality efforts, which are our overall efforts to reduce malicious activity on the service, inclusive of spam, malicious automation, and fake accounts. For example, there are a number of false or spam accounts in existence on our platform. We have performed an internal review of a sample of accounts and estimate that the average of false or spam accounts during the fourth quarter of 2021 represented fewer than 5% of our mDAU during the quarter. The false or spam accounts for a period represents the average of false or spam accounts in the samples during each monthly analysis period during the quarter. In making this determination, we applied significant judgment, so our estimation of false or spam accounts may not accurately represent the actual number of such accounts, and the actual number of false or spam accounts could be higher than we have estimated.
Twitter discloses that their calculation of spam mDAUs could be greater than 5%.
Recall Musk’s financing woes mentioned earlier. Contrary to popular belief, Musk cannot break the contract at his discretion and pay the termination fee. The only ways that Musk could leave are if twitter misled him or his financiers pulled out. The goal of Elon’s bot check appears to be to find Twitter in violation of reps and warranties. This would give him a $1B termination fee. If it could be shown that Twitter misled Musk (and investors) about the presence of bots, they would be in violation and Musk could terminate the contract. He can then reconsider entirely or offer a lower price for the acquisition, which he can more easily afford. Given the above stated information, I find it difficult to believe Twitter can be found in violation of reps and warranties. Musk specifically skipped DD that could have revealed flaws in their calculation methods and Twitter makes clear that, despite their best efforts, Twitter could be off in their assessment of bot or spam mDAUs.
On the 14th, Musk said his team would check 100 accounts following \\@twitter to see if more or less than 5 are bots. If asked for critique, any high school stats student could absolutely demolish this asinine experiment design.
Musk appears to be in a legal pickle. He has already agreed to buy Twitter, but the financing terms have turned against him. Obviously he still has sufficient assets to buy the company, just not on the terms he or Tesla shareholders would like.
I don’t see there being enough evidence to find twitter in violation, no matter how many bots are in the 100 sampled accounts following \\@twitter. This would mean that twitter would be able to compel Musk to complete the transaction, even if it is against his will. Unless he loses financing, which was almost entirely unconditional, he cannot escape. But, would they? Twitter’s existing board and management has little incentive to follow through. It would be a long, messy , and expensive legal battle that would ultimately result, if successful, their new boss sacking them vindictively.
This looks like a clear cut case of buyer’s remorse for Mr. Musk. His financing of the deal is likely already unattractive for Tesla shareholders and Musk himself, given the recent drop in Tesla stock. Virtually all social media companies have re-rated significantly lower since he made his offer as well. Musk either wants to pay less or leave entirely, it appears, and it will be very difficult for him to do this on paper. Musk has already violated many laws and norms so far, what happens next is anyone's guess. It will be interesting to see what comes of this.
​
TLDR: Deteriorating conditions and Tesla's recent fall has made the deal unpalatable for Musk. Musk must pledge 80M of his remaining 85M shares to his margin loan facility and come up with $21B to complete financing at Tesla's current price -- something he can't do. He cannot simply break the contract as many people think. This bot search appears to be an attempt to find Twitter in violation, and likely should not work. If successful, he could leave or re-offer less.
| 1,652,631,528
|
2022-05-15 16:18:48
|
wesfathonsbstk
| 131
| 45
| 0.9
|
Company Discussion
|
/r/stocks/comments/uq9hwd/an_overview_of_musks_proposed_twitter_acquisition/
|
https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/uq9hwd/an_overview_of_musks_proposed_twitter_acquisition/
|
stocks
|
3m
|
ucca26
|
(4/26) Tuesday's Pre-Market Stock Movers & News
|
#Good morning traders and investors of the r/stocks sub! Welcome to Tuesday! Here are your pre-market stock movers & news on this Tuesday, April the 26th, 2022-
*****
# [Stock futures dip slightly as market attempts to build on Monday’s comeback](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/25/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html)
*****
> Stock futures fell slightly on Tuesday a day after a big reversal in markets gave some traders hope the April sell-off was nearing an end.
*****
> Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average eased about 140 points, or 0.4%. S&P 500 futures were down about 0.4%. Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.4%.
*****
> On Monday, the Dow advanced more than 200 points, after cutting a near 500-point loss from earlier in the day. The dramatic market reversal pushed the Nasdaq Composite higher by 1.3% and the S&P 500 up by 0.6%.
*****
> “Quite an impressive reversal, unfortunately we don’t believe that [Monday’s] low is the end of the market’s drawdown,” wrote Rob Ginsberg, technical analyst with Wolfe Research. “The sell-off still feels a bit too orderly to us.”
*****
> The bounce was welcomed by investors after stocks ended the previous week on a sour note, with the Dow falling to its fourth losing week in a row and the S&P and Nasdaq hitting three-week losing streaks Friday. The tech-heavy Nasdaq fell into bear market territory last week, but after Monday’s comeback sits 19.8% from its record. For April, the S&P 500 is off by 5% and the Nasdaq is down more than 8%.
*****
> Monday’s reversal was led by names like Microsoft, Alphabet and Meta Platforms, which rallied in the afternoon amid falling interest rates and ahead of an intense week of earnings for mega cap tech stocks. Twitter also jumped after its board accepted Tesla CEO Elon Musk’s offer to take it private.
*****
> Alphabet and Microsoft were slightly higher in premarket trading Tuesday before their quarterly reports after the bell. Meta, Amazon and Apple will report later in the week.
*****
> UPS shares added more than 1% in premarket trading after the shipper’s quarterly earnings and revenue topped expectations. The company also reaffirmed its guidance. 3M shares were marginally higher in premarket trading after first-quarter results topped expectations.
*****
> “A third of the S&P is reporting [earnings] this week, and you’re probably going to see much of the same: lots of top- and bottom-line beats. Companies are going to talk about margin pressures and passing on price increases to the consumer, but they’re still going to highlight there’s still overall optimism about the economy,” Edward Moya, senior market analyst at Oanda, told CNBC.
*****
> Between the continuation of strong earnings and a quiet period from the Federal Reserve, there will likely be a relief rally in the market, Moya added.
*****
> “We’re not going to be getting more nervousness about Fed tightening, because we won’t be hearing much more about it until the May meeting,” he said.
*****
> In economic data, investors are expecting fresh numbers for new home sales and consumer confidence Tuesday morning.
*****
#STOCK FUTURES CURRENTLY:
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR STOCK FUTURES CHARTS!](https://i.imgur.com/O1bvedJ.png)**)
*****
#YESTERDAY'S MARKET MAP:
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR YESTERDAY'S MARKET MAP!](https://i.imgur.com/p5ZAEsP.png)**)
*****
#TODAY'S MARKET MAP:
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR TODAY'S MARKET MAP!](https://finviz.com/map.ashx)**)
*****
#YESTERDAY'S S&P SECTORS:
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR YESTERDAY'S S&P SECTORS CHART!](https://i.imgur.com/nHeoZ6D.png)**)
*****
#TODAY'S S&P SECTORS:
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR TODAY'S S&P SECTORS CHART!](https://finviz.com/groups.ashx)**)
*****
#TODAY'S ECONOMIC CALENDAR:
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR TODAY'S ECONOMIC CALENDAR!](https://i.imgur.com/7lDw3If.png)**)
*****
#THIS WEEK'S ECONOMIC CALENDAR:
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR THIS WEEK'S ECONOMIC CALENDAR!](https://i.imgur.com/LlfTgk8.png)**)
*****
#THIS WEEK'S UPCOMING IPO'S:
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR THIS WEEK'S UPCOMING IPO'S!](https://i.imgur.com/j1aRXSM.png)**)
*****
#THIS WEEK'S EARNINGS CALENDAR:
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR THIS WEEK'S EARNINGS CALENDAR!](https://i.imgur.com/UVa2U3u.jpg)**)
*****
#THIS MORNING'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS CALENDAR:
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR THIS MORNING'S EARNINGS CALENDAR!](https://i.imgur.com/W011MPP.jpg)**)
*****
#EARNINGS RELEASES BEFORE THE OPEN TODAY:
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR THIS MORNING'S EARNINGS RELEASES LINK #1!](https://i.imgur.com/dOHwf4E.png)**)
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR THIS MORNING'S EARNINGS RELEASES LINK #2!](https://i.imgur.com/dbeu648.png)**)
*****
#EARNINGS RELEASES AFTER THE CLOSE TODAY:
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR THIS AFTERNOON'S EARNINGS RELEASES #1!](https://i.imgur.com/vltI7XE.png)**)
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR THIS AFTERNOON'S EARNINGS RELEASES #2!](https://i.imgur.com/vHI0AiI.png)**)
*****
#YESTERDAY'S ANALYST UPGRADES/DOWNGRADES:
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR YESTERDAY'S ANALYST UPGRADES/DOWNGRADES LINK #1!](https://i.imgur.com/fAGZ7if.png)**)
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR YESTERDAY'S ANALYST UPGRADES/DOWNGRADES LINK #2!](https://i.imgur.com/tYbduCm.png)**)
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR YESTERDAY'S ANALYST UPGRADES/DOWNGRADES LINK #3!](https://i.imgur.com/oqWFwyJ.png)**)
*****
#YESTERDAY'S INSIDER TRADING FILINGS:
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR YESTERDAY'S INSIDER TRADING FILINGS!](https://i.imgur.com/QSPyA4i.png)**)
*****
#TODAY'S DIVIDEND CALENDAR:
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR TODAY'S DIVIDEND CALENDAR!](https://i.imgur.com/YX853uy.png)**)
*****
#THIS MORNING'S STOCK NEWS MOVERS:
######(**source: [cnbc.com](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/26/stocks-making-the-biggest-moves-premarket-pepsico-general-electric-ups-and-others.html?&qsearchterm=making)**)
*****
> **PepsiCo** – Shares of the food and beverage giant dipped in the premarket although the company reported a beat on the top and bottom lines in the recent quarter as consumers paid more for some of the company’s key brands.
> #**STOCK SYMBOL:** PEP
> * [CLICK HERE FOR CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=PEP&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)
> ######(**[CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!](http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/PEP)**)
*****
> **General Electric** – General Electric’s stock fell 3.5% despite topping estimates in its quarterly report. The company confirmed its previous full-year profit guidance range and said it sees challenges from inflation and supply chain issues.
> #**STOCK SYMBOL:** GE
> * [CLICK HERE FOR CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=GE&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)
> ######(**[CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!](http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/GE)**)
*****
> **United Parcel Services** — Shares of the shipping and logistics giant gained 1.7% after beating analyst estimates on the top and bottom lines. UPS reported adjusted earnings per share of $3.05 on revenues of $24.38 billion while analysts expected $2.88 earnings per share on $23.79 billion in revenue.
> #**STOCK SYMBOL:** UPS
> * [CLICK HERE FOR CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=UPS&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)
> ######(**[CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!](http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/UPS)**)
*****
> **3M** – 3M shares were flat premarket after reporting quarterly earnings that topped estimates. The company saw revenues of $8.83 billion while analysts expected $8.74 billion in revenue.
> #**STOCK SYMBOL:** MMM
> * [CLICK HERE FOR CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=MMM&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)
> ######(**[CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!](http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/MMM)**)
*****
> **D.R. Horton** — The homebuilder stock rose 2.8% during premarket trading after beating analyst estimates in the previous quarter. D.R. Horton reported adjusted earnings of $4.03 a share on revenues of $8 billion. Analysts anticipated $3.37 adjusted earnings per share on $7.62 billion in revenue.
> #**STOCK SYMBOL:** DHI
> * [CLICK HERE FOR CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=DHI&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)
> ######(**[CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!](http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/DHI)**)
*****
> **SeaWorld** — The theme park and entertainment company’s stock surged 4.6% after Rosenblatt Securities initiated coverage with a buy and said despite pandemic headwinds the company has faired well under the vision of big investor Scott Ross.
> #**STOCK SYMBOL:** SEAS
> * [CLICK HERE FOR CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=SEAS&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)
> ######(**[CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!](http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/SEAS)**)
*****
#**FULL DISCLOSURE:**
> /u/bigbear0083 has no positions in any stocks mentioned. Reddit, moderators, and the author do not advise making investment decisions based on discussion in these posts. Analysis is not subject to validation and users take action at their own risk.
*****
#**DISCUSS!**
What's on everyone's radar for today's trading day ahead here at r/stocks?
*****
# **I hope you all have an excellent trading day ahead today on this Tuesday, April 26th, 2022! :)**
| 1,650,978,750
|
2022-04-26 13:12:30
|
bigbear0083
| 5
| 0
| 0.86
| null |
/r/stocks/comments/ucca26/426_tuesdays_premarket_stock_movers_news/
|
https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/ucca26/426_tuesdays_premarket_stock_movers_news/
|
stocks
|
3m
|
u7ouu4
|
Question regarding netflix earnings.
|
Netflix 10q isnt out yet for netlfix. so im looking for Netflix earnings articles. this is what it says:
>The company said it lost 200,000 subscribers in its first quarter, falling well short of its forecast of adding 2.5 million subscribers. Suspending service in Russia after the Ukraine invasion took a toll, resulting in the loss of 700,000 members.
im not seeing how the numbers work here. the only thing that is explicit is that 2022 Q1 they expected 2.5m new subscribers (new correct? not total subs?) however
1. it doesnt mention their total subscribers in Q1.
2. they said it lost 200k subscribers falling short of "adding 2.5m subs". does that mean they got 2.3m new subs?
3. suspension of service in russia resulted in loss of 700k members. is that including the 200k lost? or on top of that resulting in 900k lost members?
| 1,650,431,141
|
2022-04-20 05:05:41
|
AIONisMINE
| 7
| 13
| 0.69
| null |
/r/stocks/comments/u7ouu4/question_regarding_netflix_earnings/
|
https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/u7ouu4/question_regarding_netflix_earnings/
|
stocks
|
3m
|
u4xg2a
|
SP500 Price-To-Sales Ratio
|
By now most of us have been brought to the attention of the rising P/S of SP500, it seems the current equal-weight P/S ratio has nearly doubled over the last 10 years. I did some research on the top100 companies (by weight -- I had to search each ticker and record the numbers manually, that's why I couldn't do all 500) and did the following:
​
1. Record 3Y, 5Y, 10Y, 15Y and 20Y P/S
2. Measure against current P/S as %
3. Sort by lowest % on 3Y, 5Y and 10Y
4. Filter out anything over 85%
​
||vs 3Y|vs 5Y|vs 10Y|vs 15Y|vs 20Y|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|Paypal|50%|54%||||
|Facebook|62%|57%|53%|||
|Netflix|63%|63%|69%|77%|83%|
|Starbucks|71%|74%|75%|80%|85%|
|Adobe|76%|80%|88%|96%|104%|
|Salesforce|76%|79%|81%|82%||
|Disney|78%|82%|87%|94%|103%|
|3M|78%|74%|76%|80%|82%|
|Citigroup|81%|77%|78%|81%|76%|
|Pfizer|81%|81%|85%|89%|91%|
|Intel|82%|81%|83%|82%|81%|
|IBM|84%|80%|76%|75%|75%|
My rationale is, anything under 100% vs 3Y, 5Y and 10Y means they have not "doubled over the last 10 years", hence off the Burry radar, which may mean they are better value among their peers?
Then I use Morningstar's Fair Value, while it may not be the best calculation, I reckon with the same methodology applied to these companies, it should still give some meaningful comparison. I keep companies with at least 70% of Morningstar's FV:
​
||Fair Value|Current|Current$ of FV|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|Paypal|$145|$102|70%|
|Facebook|$400|$210|53%|
|Adobe|$615|$420|68%|
|Salesforce|$320|$196|59%|
|Citigroup|$78|$51|65%|
|Intel|$65|$46|70%|
Worth mentioning that P/S of C is 1.24 (max 1.64) and INTC is 2.43 (max 3.00). So of the six above, perhaps Citigroup and Intel are now reasonably priced to enter?
| 1,650,114,462
|
2022-04-16 13:07:42
|
investulator
| 18
| 19
| 0.77
|
Advice Request
|
/r/stocks/comments/u4xg2a/sp500_pricetosales_ratio/
|
https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/u4xg2a/sp500_pricetosales_ratio/
|
stocks
|
3m
|
tz6thq
|
$NVT DD; a manufacturer benefitting from "the electrification of everything"
|
Looked into NVT recently, so figured I'd share my quick DD with the community. As always, do your own research, this isn't personal advice, yada, yada, yada.
[nVent Electric](https://investors.nvent.com/investor-relations/default.aspx) (NVT) is an electrical component manufacturer that owns brands like Caddy, Erico, Hoffman, Raychem, Schroff, and Tracer. If it protects and connects critical electronics and equipment, nVent probably makes it.
The company divides its products into three segments:
* **Enclosures**: metallic and non-metallic enclosures, cabinets, subracks, and backplanes.
* **Thermal Management:** heat tracing, floor heating, fire-rated and specialty wiring, sensing, and snow melting and de-icing solutions.
* **Elecrical & Fastening Solutions:** fastening solutions can range from bridle rings for cable management to clips for securing light fixtures to the ceiling.
Since the pandemic, nVent has steadily increased quarterly revenue and expects momentum to remain strong for the current year, even with supply chain challenges and inflation headwinds.
Why? Because the company benefits from the broader electrification movement. Solar, data centers, data networking, automotive, oil & gas, infrastructure — these industries (and many more) all rely on electronics one way or another. nVent creates the oft-overlooked components that enable safety, constant up-time, and cost-efficiency.
It helps to have a physical tie to the electrification of everything. Here are a few financial highlights:
* **Solid revenue growth.** 13% increase in revenue in FY21 relative to FY19; pandemic set the company back briefly. Management anticipates 6-10% growth in FY22.
* **Prudent management of corporate costs.** SG&A is routinely 22-24% of sales.
* **100%+ net income conversion to free cash flow.** (FCF of $334 million in FY21)
* **Decent forward P/E ratio based on FY22 expectations** (15.5, which is below the comparable average for electrical component makers of 20).
Compared to peers, there may be other opportunities with higher upside, such as WIRE and ATKR. (Based on yesterday's close numbers.)
|Ticker|Price|Market Cap|P/E|Revenue (TTM)|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|ABB|$31.79|$62.06B|13.9|$28.9B|
|EMR|$95.89|$57.13B|20.9|$18.5B|
|ROK|$271.05|$31.63B|31.6|$7.3B|
|AME|$132.30|$30.50B|31.1|$5.5B|
|GNRC|$296.96|$19.14B|35.8|$3.7B|
|RRX|$138.47|$9.32B|31.5|$3.8B|
|ST|$48.25|$7.66B|21.2|$3.8B|
|**NVT**|**$34.32**|**$5.66B**|**21.3**|**$2.5B**|
|ATKR|$90.24|$4.05B|6.1|$3.3B|
|ENS|$71.52|$2.98B|20.6|$3.3B|
|WIRE|$106.55|$2.11B|4.1|$2.6B|
|AZZ|$47.19|$1.19B|15.2|$873.6M|
|AMOT|$27.38|$424.3M|16.5|$403.5M|
|PLPC|$62.74|$312.98M|8.7|$517.4M|
That said, shares currently trade at $34.50, representing a PE ratio of 21.5. Looking ahead, NVT trades at 15-16x forward earnings for FY22, which suggests — *all else equal* — there’s a chance for NVT to hit mid-$40s over the next year.
| 1,649,433,687
|
2022-04-08 16:01:27
|
stockduediligence
| 10
| 2
| 0.92
|
Company Analysis
|
/r/stocks/comments/tz6thq/nvt_dd_a_manufacturer_benefitting_from_the/
|
https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/tz6thq/nvt_dd_a_manufacturer_benefitting_from_the/
|
stocks
|
3m
|
tozqhk
|
What do you think of MMM after they just got another 50M lawsuit? If they get cheaper will you consider buying them?
|
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.foxbusiness.com/technology/3m-50-million-army-veteran-earplugs-lawsuit.amp
"Friday's judgment is the second-largest related to earplugs produced by 3M. In January, a federal jury awarded $110 million to two Army veterans who claimed they suffered hearing damage because of the product."
So basically more than 280,000 former and current military members have sued 3M over the earplugs and veterans were award 110M and now another 50M (25/03).
Will 3M recover from this? If they do and if you have the possibility of buying them under $140 do you think it can pay out?
| 1,648,319,471
|
2022-03-26 18:31:11
|
Migueli2021
| 13
| 20
| 0.76
|
Company Discussion
|
/r/stocks/comments/tozqhk/what_do_you_think_of_mmm_after_they_just_got/
|
https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/tozqhk/what_do_you_think_of_mmm_after_they_just_got/
|
stocks
|
3m
|
tchdta
|
Are there any high growth/high valuation stocks that have fallen a lot from their highs that you have started buying?
|
My new positions are: Nvidia at 215, AMD at 106, Square/Block at 103, TSM at 102, SOFI at 8.77, SnowFlake at 180, Spotify at 125, and PayPal at 110.
Other stocks that have fallen from their highs, but aren't really that high growth/high PE include: Apple at 156, Microsoft at 280, 3M at 141, Intel at 48, Starbucks at 84, Micron at 73, Corsair Gaming at 20, and Skyworks at 130.
Some of these stocks, especially the first set I listed, I feel I might still be overpaying despite these big drops, so I have plenty of cash in reserve to average down if needed.
| 1,647,094,902
|
2022-03-12 14:21:42
|
Hayden97
| 176
| 255
| 0.9
|
Advice Request
|
/r/stocks/comments/tchdta/are_there_any_high_growthhigh_valuation_stocks/
|
https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/tchdta/are_there_any_high_growthhigh_valuation_stocks/
|
stocks
|
3m
|
t96d4t
|
3M (MMM) Extreme Dip Buy Candidate
|
First off: this is a trend analysis, not fundamental analysis, and it's just my particular method of looking for extreme dip buys. I screen on fundamentals before I run any of these numbers on a company.
10-year trendlines: MMM is currently below both its linear and exponential 10-year growth curves by a significant amount. 2 standard deviations below would be a price target around 136 (currently about 5% above). Its current downward deviation from trend is the 2nd largest in the past 10 years (the largest being the COVID crash).
PE ratio: Its current PE ratio of 14.17 is the lowest it's been in 10 years, with a mode (nearest integer round) of 17 and mean of 21. 2 standard deviations below mean is a PE of 14, so this basically puts it at the PE price target.
200-weekly MA Deviation: Currently at around -20% deviation from its 200 weekly. This is the 2nd largest downward deviation in 10 years (again, the largest being the COVID crash). Again, at/below target.
Miscellaneous considerations: [Revenue is relatively consistent over time.](https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/MMM/3m/revenue). [EPS also relatively consistent.](https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/MMM/3m/eps-earnings-per-share-diluted). And since "safe" stocks with a solid dividend yield seem to be the current vogue (outside of energy, commodities, and defense), it has a 4.16% dividend yield [with a solid history of increasing dividends.](https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/MMM/3m/dividend-yield-history).
I'll admit the chart looks terrible, and the current general market environment doesn't look great, but in the past 10 years, the only better time to buy was the COVID crash.
I went in a tad early at $148.70 with a 2% starting position.
| 1,646,706,832
|
2022-03-08 02:33:52
|
HeyYoChill
| 23
| 23
| 0.85
|
Company Analysis
|
/r/stocks/comments/t96d4t/3m_mmm_extreme_dip_buy_candidate/
|
https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/t96d4t/3m_mmm_extreme_dip_buy_candidate/
|
stocks
|
3m
|
t2t0ei
|
3M analysis and valuation - A fairly priced resilient dividend company
|
I did analyse and value 3M and if I have to summarize everything into one sentence, it would be the following: 3M is a fairly-priced resilient dividend company and it can serve as a good example that the market is not always rational.
For those that would like to read more, below is my analysis:
**Introduction of a boring company**
3M is a mature company that grew revenue by 2.8% annually in the last 5 years with a stable operating margin of around 21%. On top of that, its CAPEX is almost equal to depreciation + amortization. This basically means it is reinvestment just enough to keep doing what it has been doing and we can expect similar performance in the coming years. However, just because it's a boring company, doesn't mean it is a bad one nor a bad investment today.
​
**What about Covid?**
Looking into the revenue, it dropped less than 2% in 2019, which shows how resilient it is to events like the pandemic.
​
**So what makes it interesting?**It has been paying dividends for over 100 years and has 64 years with a consecutive dividend increase. With the current market price of $150.51, the dividend yield is close to 4%. The 2017 annual dividend was $4.7 and increased to $5.92 in 2021.
On top of that, they're buying back shares. How much? Well, the outstanding shares decreased from 613m in 2017 to 571m.
Combining the dividend payouts + the share buybacks is very close to the net income. It is quite clear that everything that they make is being distributed back to the shareholders.
Yes, this makes the company more boring, but it depends on your risk appetite and investment philosophy. This could be a perfect fit for someone with a defensive dividend portfolio.
​
**3M's poor buyback timing**
I've mentioned that they've been buying back shares, but if we take a look at the timing, it's not great:
2017: $2.1b
2018: $4.9b
2019: $1.4b
2020: $0.4b
2021: $2.2b
​
If we take a look at the share price in the last 5 years, it is clear that it dropped around May 2019. Strangely, they were buying back fewer shares during those periods. Of course, nobody can expect when the dip happens, so I don't blame them for the buybacks in the years prior, however, when the dip was there (and still is), they could buy back more shares at a lower price. One of the reasons could be Covid-19, but I am sure that the management could assess the impact within a few quarters.
​
**How much is the company worth?**
I used two different approaches to value the company.
**Model #1 - Dividend growth model**
This is fairly simple to calculate as it takes only a few numbers, the dividend in the next year, the discount rate, and the dividend growth in perpetuity. Based on this approach, the price should be around $141/share (current share price $150.51).
**Model #2 - Discounted cash flow**
This one takes requires a few more assumptions that you can find below:
Revenue growth - 3% in the next year (as per analysts' estimates) and 2% for the years after that
Operating margin - 21% (same as in the past 5 years)
Discount rate - 7.22% (Based on WACC)
Value - $138/share
Of course, I used conservative assumptions and if they perform better, the fair value would increase.
However, it's worth noting that with both models, the fair value is not that far from the current share price.
​
**What did I mean when I mentioned the market is irrational?**
The market gives a premium to companies with long periods of dividend payments and 3M definitely fits in this category. So, we have a mature company that is growing at a very low pace, maintaining profitability, and using all of its cash to pay dividends and buy back shares. On top of that, it proved resilient to events such as Covid. All of this points out to a company that has low risk and one should expect low volatility.
Yet, the price went from $192, 5 years ago, to $250 and now is down to $150. This volatility is not justified by the company's fundamentals as nothing significant happened.
​
**Would 3M beat the market?**
In my personal opinion, 3M could beat the market in the short term. However, it is not the type of company that could deliver 15% returns year over year in the next decade. The low-risk companies should deliver lower returns, but that's not always bad. As mentioned above, this could be a great fit for someone who's into dividend investing and is happy with a guaranteed 4% yield/year that grows over time.
​
EDIT: **What is the main risk? - Lawsuits**
It operates in a few industries that are very prone to lawsuits and the company's section related to this topic is always a long one. The main question around this is: Would this bankrupt the company or impact its ability to pay dividends?
​
I'd love to hear your thoughts and feedback. I'm trying to improve not only my skills in analysis and valuation but also the way I structure the story as a Reddit post.
Feel free to challenge every single word that I've written as it will only add value to me and to the rest who read this post.
| 1,645,982,560
|
2022-02-27 17:22:40
|
k_ristovski
| 41
| 26
| 0.86
|
Company Analysis
|
/r/stocks/comments/t2t0ei/3m_analysis_and_valuation_a_fairly_priced/
|
https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/t2t0ei/3m_analysis_and_valuation_a_fairly_priced/
|
stocks
|
3m
|
sztkxo
|
LMND drops 20% after disappointing outlook, Q4 earnings fall short of consensus
|
Lemonade (NYSE:LMND) stock tumbled 20% in afterhours trading Wednesday after poor Q1 and full-year guidance, as well as missing Q4 earnings consensus estimate.
Sees Q1 revenue of $41M-$43M vs. consensus of $44.0M; in-force premium at March 31 of $405M-$410M vs. $380.1M at Dec. 31, 2021.
Sees Q4 gross earned premium of $92M-$94M vs. $89.3M in Q4.
Q4 GAAP EPS of -$1.14 vs. consensus estimate of -$1.12 and -$1.08 in Q3.
Q4 premium per customers of $266 vs. $254 in Q3.
Q4 adjusted EBITDA loss of $51.2M vs. loss of $51.3M in Q3
Q4 total revenue of $41.0M exceeded consensus of $39.4M; compares with $35.7M in Q3.
In-force premium, on an annualized basis, increased by 78% Y/Y to $380.1M; customer count rose by 43% to 1.42M and premium per customer of $266 increased by 25%.
Q4 sales and marketing expense fell to $37.2M from $42.2M in Q3 and $22.9M in Q4 2020; technology development expense increased to $16.4M from $14.3M in Q3.
Net loss ratio of 98% vs. 81% in Q3.
| 1,645,654,352
|
2022-02-23 22:12:32
|
rockinoutwith2
| 47
| 29
| 0.89
|
Company News
|
/r/stocks/comments/sztkxo/lmnd_drops_20_after_disappointing_outlook_q4/
|
https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/sztkxo/lmnd_drops_20_after_disappointing_outlook_q4/
|
stocks
|
3m
|
sx6gbp
|
3M High Debt
|
I know 3M (MMM) is a popular dividend stock and they make a lot of products everyone uses but they have about $16 billion in debt with around $4 billion in cash. Is anyone concerned about this? I know they’ve been going strong for longer than I’ve been alive but this seems it could come back around down the road. I understand majority of companies carry debt and very few could pay it all off if they wanted, but this seems to be worrisome. If anyone has thoughts I’d love to hear.
Disclosure: I’ve owned 3M before but I don’t at this current moment
| 1,645,378,281
|
2022-02-20 17:31:21
|
jtrichjr
| 74
| 62
| 0.83
|
Company Analysis
|
/r/stocks/comments/sx6gbp/3m_high_debt/
|
https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/sx6gbp/3m_high_debt/
|
stocks
|
3m
|
soo6re
|
3M Rewards Shareholders with Dividend Hike
|
Industrial conglomerate 3M recently announced a quarterly dividend of $1.49 per share, a marginal increase from the previous dividend of $1.48.
The dividend will be paid on March 12, 2022, to shareholders of record as of February 18, 2022.
Following the news, shares of the company declined marginally to close at $162.27 in Tuesday’s extended trading session.
The company’s annual dividend of $5.96 per share now reflects a dividend yield of 3.7% based on Tuesday’s closing price.
| 1,644,441,372
|
2022-02-09 21:16:12
|
gomeszh
| 23
| 29
| 0.69
| null |
/r/stocks/comments/soo6re/3m_rewards_shareholders_with_dividend_hike/
|
https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/soo6re/3m_rewards_shareholders_with_dividend_hike/
|
stocks
|
3m
|
scdbou
|
(1/25) Tuesday's Pre-Market Stock Movers & News
|
#Good morning traders and investors of the r/stocks sub! Welcome to Tuesday! Here are your pre-market stock movers & news on this Tuesday, January 25th, 2022-
*****
# [S&P 500 futures slide by more than 1% as market’s wild ride continues](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/24/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html)
*****
> U.S. stock index futures fell sharply in early trading Tuesday, after a wild session that saw the Dow erase a more than 1,100-point decline to finish the day in positive territory.
*****
> Futures contracts tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 230 points, or 0.7%, having earlier fallen by as much as 380 points. S&P 500 futures dropped 1.3%, while Nasdaq 100 futures fell 1.9%.
*****
> The 10-year Treasury yield, which has climbed this year as the Federal Reserve tightens its monetary policy, rose Tuesday morning. The higher rates pressured growth-oriented parts of the market with technology shares lower in early morning trading.
*****
> During regular trading Monday, the Dow gained 99 points, or 0.3%, and snapped a six-day losing streak. At the lows of the day, the 30-stock benchmark shed 3.25%. The S&P 500 advanced 0.28% for its first positive session in five, after losing nearly 4% earlier in the day. At one point the benchmark index fell into correction territory, dropping 10% from its Jan. 3 record close.
*****
> The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.6%, reversing a 4.9% decline from earlier in the day. The comeback was the first time the tech-heavy index clawed back a 4% loss to end higher since 2008.
*****
> “The buyers are coming in to buy the dip here,” Lindsey Bell, Ally’s chief money and markets strategist, said Monday on CNBC’s “Closing Bell.” “Things looked a little bit over-stretched to the oversold side, so it’s not surprising. But that doesn’t mean we are going to be in the clear ... there’s a lot that we have going on this week,” she said
*****
> Ultimately, Bell said volatility is here to stay until the Fed begins hiking rates.
*****
> Despite Monday’s comeback, the S&P 500 is still down 7.5% in January, its worst month since March 2020 at the onset of the pandemic.
*****
> Markets have been rattled by a combination of factors, primarily a Federal Reserve expected to start raising interest soon to combat inflation, and geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine. The economic impact of omicron also has been a concern, though signs that the Covid variant spread is diminishing have lessened those fears.
*****
> The Fed’s signal that it would began raising rates as soon as this March is the main culprit behind the market’s volatile start to the year.
*****
> The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee will begin its two-day meeting on Tuesday, with an interest rate decision slated for Wednesday at 2 p.m. ET. The Fed is not expected to begin hiking rates just yet, but is likely to maintain a path to tighter policy this year as it fights the highest inflation in decades.
*****
> “We’re in what I call the triple threat of ... rapidly rising rates, and the market has been working overtime, as have all of the algorithms, to try to figure out what that means, and what that pace means for valuations and global equities,” UBS Private Wealth Management’s Alli McCartney told CNBC Monday.
*****
> Monday’s reversal was “capitulation,” she said, before adding that while volatility is here to stay, the market narrative is beginning to shift towards one of strong earnings growth supporting stocks.
*****
> Monday’s volatility follows the S&P 500′s worst week since the pandemic took hold in March 2020. Spooked by rising rates, investors have rotated out of high-growth areas of the market in favor of safer bets. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note stood at 1.769% on Monday.
*****
> The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite has been hit especially hard and fell into correction territory last week. The index is down 11.4% so far this year, underperforming the S&P and Dow, which have declined 7.5% and 5.4%, respectively.
*****
> “Considering expectations for solid gains in the economy and corporate profits...we’re not convinced the fundamentals support any near-term technical weakness beyond the classic 10.0% correction,” said John Lynch, chief investment officer for Comerica Wealth Management. “Yet a review of the technical and fundamental backdrops suggests a bottom is forming,” he added.
*****
> Investors digested a slew of quarterly earnings reports before the open.
*****
> General Electric fell about 2% and Johnson & Johnson lost 1.8% in the premarket after both companies beat earnings expectations, but missed revenue estimates.
*****
> 3M rose 1.9% and American Express gained 3.4% after
*****
#STOCK FUTURES CURRENTLY:
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR STOCK FUTURES CHARTS!](https://finviz.com/futures.ashx)**)
*****
#YESTERDAY'S MARKET MAP:
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR YESTERDAY'S MARKET MAP!](https://i.imgur.com/FFztpOI.png)**)
*****
#TODAY'S MARKET MAP:
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR TODAY'S MARKET MAP!](https://finviz.com/map.ashx)**)
*****
#YESTERDAY'S S&P SECTORS:
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR YESTERDAY'S S&P SECTORS CHART!](https://i.imgur.com/eNi8hHh.png)**)
*****
#TODAY'S S&P SECTORS:
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR TODAY'S S&P SECTORS CHART!](https://i.imgur.com/2JZE6Tm.png)**)
*****
#TODAY'S ECONOMIC CALENDAR:
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR TODAY'S ECONOMIC CALENDAR!](https://i.imgur.com/IKf95WC.png)**)
*****
#THIS WEEK'S ECONOMIC CALENDAR:
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR THIS WEEK'S ECONOMIC CALENDAR!](https://i.imgur.com/yqzcr7u.png)**)
*****
#THIS WEEK'S UPCOMING IPO'S:
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR THIS WEEK'S UPCOMING IPO'S!](https://i.imgur.com/wU0MH38.png)**)
*****
#THIS WEEK'S EARNINGS CALENDAR:
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR THIS WEEK'S EARNINGS CALENDAR!](https://i.imgur.com/qEznZhN.jpg)**)
*****
#THIS MORNING'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS CALENDAR:
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR THIS MORNING'S EARNINGS CALENDAR!](https://i.imgur.com/07valqh.png)**)
*****
#EARNINGS RELEASES BEFORE THE OPEN TODAY:
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR THIS MORNING'S EARNINGS RELEASES!](https://i.imgur.com/kOH5KSW.png)**)
(NONE.)
*****
#EARNINGS RELEASES AFTER THE CLOSE TODAY:
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR THIS AFTERNOON'S EARNINGS RELEASES!](https://i.imgur.com/qdZljVb.png)**)
*****
#YESTERDAY'S ANALYST UPGRADES/DOWNGRADES:
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR YESTERDAY'S ANALYST UPGRADES/DOWNGRADES LINK #1!](https://i.imgur.com/QVaAiif.png)**)
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR YESTERDAY'S ANALYST UPGRADES/DOWNGRADES LINK #2!](https://i.imgur.com/rzWyRzT.png)**)
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR YESTERDAY'S ANALYST UPGRADES/DOWNGRADES LINK #3!](https://i.imgur.com/twxKkty.png)**)
*****
#YESTERDAY'S INSIDER TRADING FILINGS:
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR YESTERDAY'S INSIDER TRADING FILINGS!](https://i.imgur.com/plqasOQ.png)**)
*****
#TODAY'S DIVIDEND CALENDAR:
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR TODAY'S DIVIDEND CALENDAR!](https://i.imgur.com/Dm0jKcH.png)**)
*****
#THIS MORNING'S STOCK NEWS MOVERS:
######(**source: [cnbc.com](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/25/stocks-making-the-biggest-moves-in-the-premarket-3m-johnson-johnson-general-electric-and-more.html)**)
*****
> **3M (MMM)** – 3M rose 1.9% in the premarket after reporting quarterly earnings of $2.31 per share, 30 cents a share above estimates. Revenue also topped estimates, and 3M said its business improved during December as supply chain issues, omicron and other concerns abated.
> #**STOCK SYMBOL:** MMM
> * [CLICK HERE FOR CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=MMM&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)
> ######(**[CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!](http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/MMM)**)
*****
> **Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)** – Johnson & Johnson beat estimates by a penny a share, with quarterly earnings of $2.13 per share. The company gave an upbeat full-year forecast, however fourth-quarter revenue came in below analysts’ forecasts. Its shares fell 1.6% in premarket trading.
> #**STOCK SYMBOL:** JNJ
> * [CLICK HERE FOR CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=JNJ&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)
> ######(**[CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!](http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/JNJ)**)
*****
> **General Electric (GE)** – GE slid 2.8% in premarket action as fourth-quarter revenue fell below Street forecasts. Quarterly earnings came in at 92 cents a share, compared to a consensus estimate of 85 cents a share. The company also forecast improved cash flow for 2022.
> #**STOCK SYMBOL:** GE
> * [CLICK HERE FOR CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=GE&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)
> ######(**[CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!](http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/GE)**)
*****
> **American Express (AXP)** – Record card spending helped American Express report better-than-expected profit and revenue for the fourth quarter. Earnings came in at $2.18 per share, well above the $1.87 a share consensus estimate.
> #**STOCK SYMBOL:** AXP
> * [CLICK HERE FOR CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=AXP&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)
> ######(**[CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!](http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/AXP)**)
*****
> **Polaris Industries (PII)** – The recreational vehicle maker beat estimates by 13 cents a share, with quarterly profit of $2.16 per share. Revenue also topped consensus. Profit was lower than a year ago as Polaris dealt with higher costs for components and logistics.
> #**STOCK SYMBOL:** PII
> * [CLICK HERE FOR CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=PII&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)
> ######(**[CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!](http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/PII)**)
*****
> **IBM (IBM)** – IBM beat estimates by 5 cents a share, with quarterly profit of $3.35 per share. Revenue also beat estimates on strength in IBM’s cloud computing business. IBM shares experienced some volatility in after-hours trading after the company declined to give an earnings forecast, but shares recovered to gain 1.5% in premarket trading.
> #**STOCK SYMBOL:** IBM
> * [CLICK HERE FOR CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=IBM&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)
> ######(**[CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!](http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/IBM)**)
*****
> **Ericsson (ERIC)** – Ericsson reported better-than-expected quarterly earnings, with the Swedish telecom equipment maker benefiting from the accelerating rollout of 5G networks around the world. Shares surged 5.5% in the premarket.
> #**STOCK SYMBOL:** ERIC
> * [CLICK HERE FOR CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=ERIC&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)
> ######(**[CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!](http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/ERIC)**)
*****
> **Logitech (LOGI)** – Logitech sales fell 2% for its latest quarter, with the maker of computer peripheral equipment facing tough comparisons to elevated pandemic-induced demand a year ago. Logitech raised its sales forecast for the current quarter, however, and its shares jumped 4.5% in premarket trading.
> #**STOCK SYMBOL:** LOGI
> * [CLICK HERE FOR CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=LOGI&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)
> ######(**[CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!](http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/LOGI)**)
*****
> **PetMed Express (PETS)** – PetMed Express fell 9 cents a share shy of consensus estimates, with quarterly profit of 21 cents per share. The pet products seller’s revenue also came in short of analysts’ forecasts. The stock dropped 2.7% in the premarket.
> #**STOCK SYMBOL:** PETS
> * [CLICK HERE FOR CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=PETS&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)
> ######(**[CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!](http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/PETS)**)
*****
> **Zions Bancorporation (ZION)** – Zions shares rose 1.1% in the premarket after beating top and bottom line estimates for its latest quarter. It’s the latest in a series of upbeat reports from regional banks.
> #**STOCK SYMBOL:** ZION
> * [CLICK HERE FOR CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=ZION&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)
> ######(**[CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!](http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/ZION)**)
*****
> **Allscripts Healthcare Solutions (MDRX)** – Allscripts issued preliminary quarterly earnings and revenue numbers that exceeded Wall Street forecasts. The provider of physician practice management technology also announced a new $250 million share repurchase program. The stock surged 8.6% in premarket action.
> #**STOCK SYMBOL:** MDRX
> * [CLICK HERE FOR CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=MDRX&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)
> ######(**[CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!](http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/MDRX)**)
*****
#**FULL DISCLOSURE:**
> /u/bigbear0083 has no positions in any stocks mentioned. Reddit, moderators, and the author do not advise making investment decisions based on discussion in these posts. Analysis is not subject to validation and users take action at their own risk.
*****
#**DISCUSS!**
What's on everyone's radar for today's trading day ahead here at r/stocks?
*****
# **I hope you all have an excellent trading day ahead today on this Tuesday, January 25th, 2022! :)**
| 1,643,116,059
|
2022-01-25 13:07:39
|
bigbear0083
| 9
| 2
| 0.86
| null |
/r/stocks/comments/scdbou/125_tuesdays_premarket_stock_movers_news/
|
https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/scdbou/125_tuesdays_premarket_stock_movers_news/
|
stocks
|
3m
|
sabkrx
|
Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning January 24th, 2022
|
Good Saturday afternoon to all of you here on r/stocks! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and are ready for the new trading week ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning January 24th, 2022.
# **Markets are expected to remain on edge as the Fed meets in the week ahead - [(Source)](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/21/markets-are-expected-to-remain-on-edge-as-the-fed-meets-in-the-week-ahead.html)**
*****
> Market turbulence is likely to continue in the week ahead as the Federal Reserve meets and the biggest of big tech —Apple and Microsoft — report earnings.
*****
> Stocks on Friday closed out their worst week since 2020, with big losses in technology and consumer discretionary names. FANG darling Netflix was ripped after its Thursday afternoon earnings, and traders are watching to see whether the same fate will take down other big tech names.
*****
> It was a painful week on Wall Street, with the Nasdaq slumping 7.6% for the week, its worst performance since March, 2020. The S&P 500 ended the week at 4,397, down 5.7%, and is now 8.7% from its Jan. 4 high.
*****
> The Nasdaq has fallen 15.5% from its high and is off to its worst start to the year, through the first 14 trading days, since 2008, according to FactSet.
*****
> The Federal Reserve’s meeting Tuesday and Wednesday trumps everything else for markets, as investors await any new clues on how much the central bank will raise interest rates this year and when it will start. Economists expect the Fed to steer markets to a quarter-percentage-point March rate hike.
*****
> There is also an avalanche of major earnings reports expected, including nearly half the Dow 30′s blue chips, such as 3M, IBM, Intel, Caterpillar and American Express. The two biggest stocks in terms of market capitalization, Microsoft and Apple, report Tuesday and Thursday respectively. Tesla reports Wednesday.
*****
> The economy will also be a focus with a first look at fourth-quarter GDP on Thursday, and Friday’s personal consumption expenditures data, which includes the Fed’s preferred inflation measure.
*****
> Stocks could be in for more volatile trading, after a wild week of seesaw action resulted in steep declines in major indexes. The weakest major sectors for the week were consumer discretionary, off 8.5%, followed by communication services and technology, both lower by about 7%.
*****
> Earnings season has been mixed so far with some high-profile negative stock reactions when investors did not like what they heard.
*****
> Netflix stock cratered Friday, losing 22% after a disappointing disclosure about subscriber data when it released earnings Thursday afternoon. JP Morgan Chase fell sharply a week earlier when it reported higher expenses and slower trading activity.
*****
> “We do not think that the earnings season is a macro catalyst to send the indexes significantly in one direction or the other. This is a stock-by-stock story,” said Julian Emanuel, chief equity, derivatives and quantitative strategist at Evercore ISI.
*****
> “The good reports are likely to be rewarded but in a much more muted fashion, whereas the companies that miss on either [revenues or earnings] are going to be disproportionately punished. It doesn’t matter if you beat or miss, but if you had negative comment around margins and costs, you’re going to pay a price,” he added.
*****
> # Fed ahead
> The same inflation that is showing up in rising costs in company earnings and higher prices has become a major concern for the Fed. Investors will be listening closely to hear how worried the Fed is about inflation when Chairman Jerome Powell briefs the media Wednesday afternoon after the policymaking Federal Open Market Committee releases its statement.
*****
> The Fed is not expected to raise interest rates or change policy at this meeting, but it could be setting the stage for how it will act when it finishes up its bond buying program, likely in March. Many economists expect the Fed could start raising its fed funds target rate from near-zero with a quarter-percentage-point hike in March.
*****
> “The baseline is we see four hikes and the start of quantitative tightening somewhere around the middle to later in the year,” Emanuel said. “I don’t think the Fed is going to do anything to talk the market out of that stance.”
*****
> The Fed has also said it could move to shrink its balance sheet this year, and that would be another type of policy tightening, as the central bank steps back from replacing the maturing securities on its balance with market purchases. That would in essence start to decrease the size of the nearly $9 trillion balance sheet.
*****
> The Fed has sounded much more hawkish, or in favor of rate hikes and other policy tightening, particularly since it released its December forecast. Powell is not likely to change his tone this week, even with stocks selling off, Emanuel said.
*****
> “If Powell were going to come off sounding dovish, the presumption would be that would be a positive for the market, but we might argue that would not be,” he said. “If the market doesn’t really believe he’s going with the four-hike plan, it’s very likely that 10-year yields which have broken out of the three-year range by going over 1.80%, could make a very quick move to 2%.”
*****
> He added “growth is already backfooted versus value. That would be very destabilizing for the market.”
*****
> The Fed is already considered to be behind the curve by some Fed watchers.
*****
> “The Fed has never responded this slowly to an emerging inflation risk and even today is signaling a benign hiking cycle,” wrote Ethan Harris, Bank of America’s head of global economic research. “If they are wrong, and inflation settles closer to 3% than 2%, it is bad news for both stocks and bonds.”
*****
> # Bond yields stall
Bond yields continued to stair-step higher early in the past week but fell back down by the end of the week. The widely watched benchmark 10-year Treasury yield touched 1.9% in the middle of the week before slipping back to 1.76% Friday.
*****
> Ian Lyngen, BMO head of U.S. rates strategy, said the bond market is pricing in a move in the fed funds rate to 1.75%. He said the Fed would have to indicate it could push the funds target higher in order for the 10-year to get to 2%
*****
> “We expect it will consolidate in this range until Wednesday,” Lyngen said. “If the Fed does not come out as more hawkish, then we’ll see a classic ‘buy the rumor, sell the fact,’ and the 10-year yield drifts lower.” Yields move opposite price.
*****
> Tech and growth stocks have been most negatively impacted by the move higher in rates. Those stocks are valued on the prospect of their future profits, and the assumption is in an environment of cheap money, valuations can be higher.
*****
> But as the Fed tightens and inflation continues to flare, many strategists expect cyclical and value stocks to perform better. Since the start of the year, the technology sector is down 11.4%. Energy has been the outperformer, and is the only major sector higher this year, up 12.8%.
*****
> “The Fed’s whole intent of this is to tighten financial conditions so in a way, if you’re the Fed what you’ve seen in the first three weeks of the year you may be perfectly fine with,” Emanuel said. “I don’ think if you’re Powell you’re going to try to talk the market out of the mode that it’s currently in. I think you’re pretty happy with how the year has started.”
*****
> Emanuel expects the S&P 500 to end the year at 5,100. As for the current sell-off, he said the S&P 500 is likely to reach its 200-day moving average at about 4,425, but there’s no guarantee that will be the bottom of this sell-off.
*****
# **This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:**
###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!](https://i.imgur.com/c4Tevzq.png))**
# **S&P Sectors for this past week:**
###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!](https://i.imgur.com/6SHlagj.png))**
# **Major Indices for this past week:**
###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!](https://i.imgur.com/QqKyMQj.png))**
# **Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:**
###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!](https://i.imgur.com/WHRJ6n4.png))**
# **Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:**
###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!](https://i.imgur.com/yqzcr7u.png))**
# **Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:**
###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://i.imgur.com/QWERqr2.png))**
# **S&P Sectors for the Past Week:**
###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://i.imgur.com/sDiPd7N.png))**
# **Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:**
###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://i.imgur.com/LMLaGvv.png))**
# **Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:**
###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://i.imgur.com/NNrHmeH.png))**
# **Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:**
###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://i.imgur.com/qEznZhN.jpg))**
# **Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:**
###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://i.imgur.com/tcASncK.png))**
# **Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:**
###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!](https://i.imgur.com/3Njz2b4.png))**
###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!](https://i.imgur.com/4GJ13ur.png))**
###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #3!](https://i.imgur.com/4ny0D0N.png))**
###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #4!](https://i.imgur.com/nO7W7ua.png))**
###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #5!](https://i.imgur.com/kQW86Bp.png))**
*****
> # Tech Sheds a Trillion
> Earlier this week in our Sector Weightings report, we highlighted how the weight of the Technology sector remains well above that of any other sector, though, it did come off recent highs. In terms of market cap, the Tech sector is still valued at nearly $11 trillion. The next largest sectors are Health Care and Consumer Discretionary at a little over $5 trillion. Utilities is currently the only sector with a market cap under $1 trillion. Remember, back in April 2020, the S&P 1500 Energy sector's market cap got down to just $701 billion!
> Taking a look at the changes three weeks into the new year, Tech has already shed over a trillion dollars in market cap. Combined, Consumer Discretionary, Health Care, and Communication Services have also fallen by over a trillion dollars. Meanwhile, only Energy has seen its market cap increase.
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2022/01/012122-Sector-Mkt-caps.png))**
> As for the individual stocks of the S&P 500, there are currently five members with market caps above $1 trillion, and those five stocks have seen a combined drop in market cap of roughly $850 billion year to date. Apple (AAPL) and Microsoft (MSFT) are the biggest of these with market caps of $2.69 trillion and $2.65 trillion respectively, and as such, their declines year to date are the largest of any S&P 500 stock. Of the 25 largest S&P 500 members, only a handful have seen their market caps rise so far in 2022. Exxon Mobil (XOM) has seen the largest increase followed by Berkshire Hathaway (BRK/B) and Chevron (CVX).
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2022/01/012122-Sector-Mkt-caps-Largest.png))**
> In the table below, we show the 25 S&P 500 stocks that have seen their market caps rise the most this year. Not only does an Energy stock top the list, but across these 25 names, Energy stocks have the most representation. Financials also have a decent number making the list while not a single Consumer Discretionary or Tech name is to be found.
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2022/01/012122-Sector-Mkt-caps-Largest-2.png))**
*****
> # More Lows Than Highs
> With more than half of the S&P 500 lower today, the index is once again looking to end the week in the red and with weak breadth. As a result of the consistent declines lately across the index, the net reading of the percentage of stocks at new 52-week highs versus lows is on pace to see the first negative reading since December 2nd.
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2022/01/012122-Large1.png))**
> Moving down through the spectrum of market caps, the readings on net new highs only get worse. The S&P 400 which is comprised of mid-cap names has an even lower reading of -6.23% of net new highs today. That is the lowest since November 30th, and prior to that, you would have to go back to the record low readings of March 2020 to find the last time that there were as wide of a margin between the number of stocks hitting new lows versus new highs.
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2022/01/012122-Mid1.png))**
> Moving down again to the small cap S&P 600, once again the reading only gets worse. This index is seeing a double-digit negative reading. With a net 11.13% at new 52-week lows, it is the weakest reading since March 23, 2020 and is in the 5th percentile of readings going back to the start of the data in 1995.
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2022/01/012122-Small-1.png))**
*****
> # A/D Line Nearing Selling Climax Indices Test Support
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://64.media.tumblr.com/64a7ee5e9da88666041b4b7de0f5fe94/fe55510aae9d31ed-2b/s500x750/5127f441c3e9ad3199f819af9d1707739eed8d33.jpg))**
> Today’s late market selloff put further pressure on support levels as 69% of stocks traded today declined while only 26% advanced, including all of the nearly 9000 stocks traded on NYSE, AMEX and NASDAQ combined. This is close to the Advance Decline Selling Climax levels 70% total issues declining with no more than 15% advancing. It appears we are nearing the end of this January selloff, which may occur as we approach the FOMC meeting next week.
> The chart above shows the major market averages have caught up with the decline in the NASDAQ and NYSE Advance/Decline Lines that has been going on in earnest since July 2021 and more precipitously since the November highs. NDX and NASDAQ have both hit the 10% correction level this week down -10.4% and -11.9% respectively at today’s close. From their early January highs DJIA and S&P 500 are down -5.7% and -6.5% respectively.
> As you can see from the chart below the NASDAQ 100 (NDX) has fallen through two support levels at 15700 and 15250 rather quickly over the past two weeks. In the process NDX and breached it’s 50- (pink line) and 200-day (blue line) moving averages and two monthly pivot point support levels (green dotted lines) as well as the uptrend line since the March 2021 low. NDX currently sits just below 14900 support and right on the uptrend line from the September/October 2020 lows.
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://64.media.tumblr.com/ae53509e4b75c8d99d5e4a62d8f340ba/fe55510aae9d31ed-e9/s500x750/e49b5e34a2b512f362cc48c8b7016a2ecc3a1bf5.jpg))**
*****
> # How Did Stocks Do The First Year Under President Biden?
> President Biden took over the Oval Office a year ago yesterday, on January 20, 2021. So how did things go for the stock market? Let’s dive into it.
> “The Dow gained 12.3% the first year under President Biden, which is right about the average first year return of 12.1%,” explained LPL Financial Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “But where things really stand out is how many new highs were made, with a very impressive 43 new highs, the third most ever.”
> As we share in the LPL Chart of the Day, the Dow gained 12.3% during his first year in office, which ranks 9th out of all the first years for all Presidents since 1900.
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://i0.wp.com/lplresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/blog-chart-1.21.22-1.png))**
> Breaking it down a little more, stocks historically have done much better under a Democrat that first year than under a Republican, although that 91% gain under FDR had a lot to do with that. Still, stocks rose more than 30% during both President Obama’s and President Trump’s first years, breaking with the historical trend.
> And of course, let’s not forget that stocks did amazingly well right after President Biden won the election in November 2020, so you could say some of those gains were pulled forward perhaps. Here’s a chart we shared a year ago on this. It was the best Election Day to Inauguration Day return ever.
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://i0.wp.com/lplresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/Blog-1.21.22-2.png))**
> Lastly, the stock market’s gain during President Biden’s first 100 days in office was one of the best ever.
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://i0.wp.com/lplresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/blog-1.21.22-3.png))**
> All in all, the economy and stocks did quite well the first year under President Biden. Given this is a midterm year and emotions will run high, we want to remind investors to separate your politics from your investments. Many people have not liked past Presidents, only to miss out on big gains. A strong economy (and we expect it to be this year) matters a lot more to your investments than the makeup of Congress or who is in the White House.
*****
> # January Seasonal Pattern Update: Tech & Small-Cap Extend Declines
> As of today’s close NASDAQ is down 8.3% and the Russell 2000 is down 8.1%. S&P 500 and DJIA are down 4.9% and 3.6% respectively. This is the worst start to a year on the 12th trading day since 2016 when DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ and Russell 2000 were all down over 9%. Compared to the recent 21-year seasonal pattern for January, weakness could persist through the end of the month, but given the current magnitude of declines some modest recovery before the end of the month is also likely. One possible catalyst for a late-month rally could come from the Fed on January 26.
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://64.media.tumblr.com/0d01d8406f0b650d4360e841792a1b5a/4776f7f5429b4398-90/s500x750/35aae9447bf4c43515d3a04ec88550f0d07d6f5f.jpg))**
*****
> The first Fed rate hike is like taking the training wheels off. Some volatility is perfectly normal, but by no means does it mean you fall down. In fact, bull markets go another 3 years plus after the first Fed hike, with the S&P 500 up nearly 70%.
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://i.imgur.com/zyQEBTd.png))**
> Today the S&P 500 closed beneath it's December low during the first quarter. Happened 36 other times since 1950. Full year up 50% of time and up only 0.3% on avg. Definitely a concern for the bulls. Not the end of the world, but a worrisome signal.
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://i.imgur.com/9fmezdB.png))**
> Compare this to the 36 times the December lows held in Q1. S&P 500 up 18.6% on average and higher 94% of the time.
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://i.imgur.com/yKzBj2A.jpg))**
> Here's a nice way to show how the December Low Indicator is a big deal. The 36 times the December lows held in Q1, full year was rather strong. The 36 times it didn't hold (like 2022), there was some tougher sledding. For now, we chalk this up as a warning sign.
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://i.imgur.com/wrNHRqZ.jpg))**
> The S&P 500 is down 5.9% in Jan so far. Worst since 2016 when it was down 9.0% at one point during the month (closed the month down 5.1% though). Worst ever? Down 10.8% in 2008 and 10.9% in 2009. Again, this is the monthly low, not what where it closed at the end of the month.
> It is worth noting that midterm years can be quite weak early in the year. Incredibly, the average midterm year (since '50) is actually down YTD as of October 5th..
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://i.imgur.com/pQBJkMy.jpg))**
> The S&P 500 has already pulled back 6.5% this year. Remember though, the average year (since 1980) sees a 14% pullback and your average midterm year (since 1950) pulls back 17%. After a year with very little volatility, the bottom line is 2022 was likely due for a rockier ride.
> ###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://i.imgur.com/npltDLJ.jpg))**
*****
Here are the most notable companies reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
*****
###### **([CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!](https://i.imgur.com/qEznZhN.jpg))**
###### **([CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!](https://i.imgur.com/kE8ZPsR.png))**
###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES FOR THE NEXT 4 WEEKS!](https://i.imgur.com/86akBly.jpg))**
###### **([CLICK HERE FOR THE NOTABLE EARNINGS BEFORE THE OPEN ON MONDAY!](https://i.imgur.com/ZQyNlWb.jpg))**
*****
Below are some of the notable companies coming out with earnings releases this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:
*****
> # ***Monday 1.24.22 Before Market Open:***
> ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!](https://i.imgur.com/cRpi9xZ.png))
> # ***Monday 1.24.22 After Market Close:***
> ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!](https://i.imgur.com/Wuze873.png))
*****
> # ***Tuesday 1.25.22 Before Market Open:***
> ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!](https://i.imgur.com/YsNBVxL.png))
> # ***Tuesday 1.25.22 After Market Close:***
> ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!](https://i.imgur.com/BBg3Ilg.png))
*****
> # ***Wednesday 1.26.22 Before Market Open:***
> ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!](https://i.imgur.com/4YPm5Of.png))
> # ***Wednesday 1.26.22 After Market Close:***
> ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!](https://i.imgur.com/u2H8JM1.png))
*****
> # ***Thursday 1.27.22 Before Market Open:***
> ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #1!](https://i.imgur.com/tFZDX0A.png))
> ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #2!](https://i.imgur.com/0s4CS6Q.png))
> # ***Thursday 1.27.22 After Market Close:***
> ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #1!](https://i.imgur.com/l41XKjD.png))
> ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #2!](https://i.imgur.com/WnrZhJC.png))
*****
> # ***Friday 1.28.22 Before Market Open:***
> ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK!](https://i.imgur.com/1JUO97V.png))
*****
> # ***Friday 1.28.22 After Market Close:***
> ###### ([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)
*****
> # Tesla, Inc. $943.90
> **Tesla, Inc. (TSLA)** is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:10 PM ET on Wednesday, January 26, 2022. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.26 per share on revenue of $15.75 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.71 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 74% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 276.67% with revenue increasing by 46.59%. Short interest has decreased by 23.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 10.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 17.1% above its 200 day moving average of $806.16. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, January 21, 2022 there was some notable buying of 10,310 contracts of the $1,000.00 call and 9,782 contracts of the $900.00 put expiring on Friday, January 28, 2022. Option traders are pricing in a 10.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 3.1% move in recent quarters.
> #([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://charts.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=TSLA&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l))
*****
> # Apple, Inc. $162.41
> **Apple, Inc. (AAPL)** is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:30 PM ET on Thursday, January 27, 2022. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.89 per share on revenue of $118.17 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.95 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 71% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 12.50% with revenue increasing by 6.04%. Short interest has decreased by 4.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 10.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 9.9% above its 200 day moving average of $147.71. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, January 19, 2022 there was some notable buying of 58,212 contracts of the $170.00 call expiring on Friday, January 28, 2022. Option traders are pricing in a 5.6% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 3.8% move in recent quarters.
> #([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://charts.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=AAPL&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l))
*****
> # Microsoft Corp. $296.03
> **Microsoft Corp. (MSFT)** is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:10 PM ET on Tuesday, January 25, 2022. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.29 per share on revenue of $50.84 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.39 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 83% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 12.81% with revenue increasing by 18.02%. Short interest has decreased by 18.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 6.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 1.5% above its 200 day moving average of $291.62. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, January 18, 2022 there was some notable buying of 8,938 contracts of the $310.00 call expiring on Thursday, April 14, 2022. Option traders are pricing in a 6.6% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.8% move in recent quarters.
> #([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://charts.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=MSFT&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l))
*****
> # Boeing Co. $205.44
> **Boeing Co. (BA)** is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:30 AM ET on Wednesday, January 26, 2022. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.15 per share on revenue of $17.15 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.12) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 52% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 99.02% with revenue increasing by 12.06%. Short interest has decreased by 0.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 3.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 7.9% below its 200 day moving average of $222.96. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, January 21, 2022 there was some notable buying of 4,707 contracts of the $250.00 call expiring on Friday, March 4, 2022. Option traders are pricing in a 6.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 3.3% move in recent quarters.
> #([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://charts.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=BA&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l))
*****
> # Intel Corp. $52.04
> **Intel Corp. (INTC)** is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Wednesday, January 26, 2022. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.90 per share on revenue of $18.39 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.07 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 51% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of approximately $0.90 per share. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 40.79% with revenue decreasing by 7.95%. Short interest has increased by 16.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 3.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 31.2% below its 200 day moving average of $75.69. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, January 14, 2022 there was some notable buying of 14,537 contracts of the $60.00 call expiring on Thursday, April 14, 2022. Option traders are pricing in a 7.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 9.7% move in recent quarters.
> #([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://charts.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=INTC&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l))
*****
> # Johnson & Johnson $164.87
> **Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)** is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:25 AM ET on Tuesday, January 25, 2022. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.12 per share on revenue of $25.26 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.28 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 58% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 13.98% with revenue increasing by 12.39%. Short interest has decreased by 5.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 2.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 0.8% below its 200 day moving average of $166.13. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, January 7, 2022 there was some notable buying of 2,377 contracts of the $175.00 call expiring on Friday, March 18, 2022. Option traders are pricing in a 3.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 1.8% move in recent quarters.
> #([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://charts.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=JNJ&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l))
*****
> # Halliburton Company $27.54
> **Halliburton Company (HAL)** is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:45 AM ET on Monday, January 24, 2022. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.34 per share on revenue of $4.08 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.35 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 59% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 88.89% with revenue increasing by 26.04%. Short interest has decreased by 19.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 5.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 22.0% above its 200 day moving average of $22.57. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, January 11, 2022 there was some notable buying of 5,977 contracts of the $23.00 put expiring on Friday, February 18, 2022. Option traders are pricing in a 7.5% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.0% move in recent quarters.
> #([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://charts.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=HAL&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l))
*****
> # AT&T Corp. $26.61
> **AT&T Corp. (T)** is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:30 AM ET on Wednesday, January 26, 2022. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.76 per share on revenue of $40.68 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.82 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 51% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 1.33% with revenue decreasing by 10.97%. The stock has drifted higher by 1.9% from its open following the earnings release to be 2.4% below its 200 day moving average of $27.26. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, January 6, 2022 there was some notable buying of 80,645 contracts of the $20.00 call expiring on Friday, January 20, 2023. Option traders are pricing in a 4.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.3% move in recent quarters.
> #([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://charts.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=T&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l))
*****
> # General Electric Co. $96.30
> **General Electric Co. (GE)** is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:15 AM ET on Tuesday, January 25, 2022. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.83 per share on revenue of $21.65 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.88 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 42% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 29.69% with revenue decreasing by 1.27%. Short interest has decreased by 20.6% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 8.9% from its open following the earnings release to be 6.5% below its 200 day moving average of $102.98. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, January 4, 2022 there was some notable buying of 5,155 contracts of the $105.00 call expiring on Friday, March 18, 2022. Option traders are pricing in a 6.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.0% move in recent quarters.
> #([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://charts.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=GE&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l))
*****
> # Verizon Communications $53.16
> **Verizon Communications (VZ)** is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:30 AM ET on Tuesday, January 25, 2022. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.28 per share on revenue of $33.90 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.33 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 45% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 5.79% with revenue decreasing by 2.28%. The stock has drifted higher by 0.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 2.4% below its 200 day moving average of $54.48. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, January 6, 2022 there was some notable buying of 12,553 contracts of the $45.00 call expiring on Friday, June 17, 2022. Option traders are pricing in a 3.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 1.6% move in recent quarters.
> #([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!](https://charts.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=VZ&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l))
*****
# DISCUSS!
What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?
*****
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead r/stocks. :)
| 1,642,884,019
|
2022-01-22 20:40:19
|
bigbear0083
| 39
| 15
| 0.9
| null |
/r/stocks/comments/sabkrx/wall_street_week_ahead_for_the_trading_week/
|
https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/sabkrx/wall_street_week_ahead_for_the_trading_week/
|
stocks
|
3m
|
s92epi
|
Detailed comparison of the (M)AANG stocks performance through the years...
|
I was bored, so went to [barchart.com](https://barchart.com) and compared the performance of MSFT, AAPL, AMZN, NFLX and GOOG through the years.
You can find the plots for the performance for 1M, 3M, 6M, 9M, 1Y, 2Y, 3Y, 5Y, 10Y and 20Ys in the following links:
MSFT- gray, AAPL - blue, AMZN - orange, NFLX - pink, GOOG- green
[https://ibb.co/6RFLVND](https://ibb.co/6RFLVND)
[https://ibb.co/NVy4VLT](https://ibb.co/NVy4VLT)
[https://ibb.co/rftKTcq](https://ibb.co/rftKTcq)
[https://ibb.co/GWVVGH9](https://ibb.co/GWVVGH9)
[https://ibb.co/CssFJQf](https://ibb.co/CssFJQf)
[https://ibb.co/qdGcH5n](https://ibb.co/qdGcH5n)
[https://ibb.co/WF21Vn2](https://ibb.co/WF21Vn2)
[https://ibb.co/8chZZFx](https://ibb.co/8chZZFx)
[https://ibb.co/zV0Gn6T](https://ibb.co/zV0Gn6T)
[https://ibb.co/xD3rJ52](https://ibb.co/xD3rJ52)
​
Summary:
​
In the 20Y , MSFT and GOOG are the worst performers, with a gain of roughly around 10x, while AMZN has gone up 180x, AAPL 380x, and NFLX: 471x !
In the 10Y, GOOG: 3.8x, MSFT and AAPL: roughly 9x, AMZN: 14.6x, NFLX: 28.6x
In the 5Y, GOOG: 2.3x, NFLX:2.5x, AMZN: 2.7x, MSFT: 3.7, AAPL: roughly 4x
In the 3Y, GOOG: 50%, AMZN:87%, GOOG:140%, MSFT:193%, AAPL: roughly 3x
In the 2Y, NFLX: 46%, AMZN:62%, MSFT:75%, GOOG: 83%, AAPL:103%
In the 1Y, NFLX: -9%, AMZN: -8%, AAPL:15%, MSFT:31%, GOOG: 41%
In 9M, AMZN: -9%, NFLX: 0.5%, MSFT/GOOG: 15.5%, AAPL:22.5%
In 6M, AMZN: -17%, GOOG: -3%, NFLX: -1.4%, MSFT:4%, AAPL:10.7%
IN 3M, NFLX: -24%, AMZN: -9%, GOOG:-3.75%, MSFT: -2.5%, AAPL:10.7%
In 1M, NFLX: -16%, AMZN:-11%, MSFT:-8%, GOOG: -7%, AAPL: -5%
​
Was really surprised that GOOG was the worst performer in 20y, 10Y, 5Y and 3Y timeframe.
Also, the 20Y gains of aapl and nflx were insane! That is 36% and 34% yearly gains on the average, respectively. (compare with about 8% for the S&P during that time).
​
Just curious, what was surprising for you?
| 1,642,739,983
|
2022-01-21 04:39:43
|
futureIsYes
| 2
| 3
| 0.59
| null |
/r/stocks/comments/s92epi/detailed_comparison_of_the_maang_stocks/
|
https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/s92epi/detailed_comparison_of_the_maang_stocks/
|
stocks
|
3m
|
s4a8sz
|
Who else yoloed the financial crisis?
|
SPY is legit an ETF and the 3M chart makes it look like a penny stock. Wanna know why? There is a legit dark ladder attack on $SPY
Don’t believe me? Read all the posts on my profile
Dems are about to print money like a mofo with Buyden sending a DEM LADY IN POWER. You read that correct, the corruption in the fed is over.
Terrible retail sales, rising covid death, bad job numbers etc. The money printer is just starting.
Don’t agree with me? $SPY YTD chart would look like $BABA
https://ibb.co/b6PswfS
| 1,642,215,987
|
2022-01-15 03:06:27
|
AxemanFromMA
| 0
| 15
| 0.11
| null |
/r/stocks/comments/s4a8sz/who_else_yoloed_the_financial_crisis/
|
https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/s4a8sz/who_else_yoloed_the_financial_crisis/
|
stocks
|
3m
|
ryf8k5
|
2022 Dogs of the Dow
|
Meet the 2022 Dogs of the Dow. These were the top 10 highest yielding stocks of the Dow index at the close of 2021. Strategy involves investing an equal amount in each of these stocks at the beginning of the year.
|Symbol|Company|Price (12/31/21)|Yield (12/31/21)|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|DOW|Dow Chemicals|$56.72|4.94%|
|VZ|Verizon|$51.96|4.93%|
|IBM|IBM|$133.66|4.91%|
|CVX|Chevron|$117.35|4.57%|
|WBA|Walgreens|$52.16|3.66%|
|MRK|Merck|$76.64|3.60%|
|AMGN|Amgen|$224.97|3.45%|
|MMM|3M|$177.63|3.33%|
|KO|Coca-Cola|$59.21|2.84%|
|INTC|Intel|$51.50|2.70%|
| 1,641,582,746
|
2022-01-07 19:12:26
|
OliveInvestor
| 8
| 7
| 0.79
|
Resources
|
/r/stocks/comments/ryf8k5/2022_dogs_of_the_dow/
|
https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/ryf8k5/2022_dogs_of_the_dow/
|
stocks
|
3m
|
riejr1
|
Where / how can I download stock market data for analysis
|
I'd like to download full market data for the past 5 years so I can filter and sort on stocks with positive returns for intervals of the last day/5d/1m/3m/6m/1y/5y.
Ive tried going back and forth looking at individual stock charts from webull, but it's too time consuming and I'd like to download the full market data and filter on my own.
| 1,639,736,844
|
2021-12-17 10:27:24
|
hou8182
| 6
| 32
| 0.69
|
Resources
|
/r/stocks/comments/riejr1/where_how_can_i_download_stock_market_data_for/
|
https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/riejr1/where_how_can_i_download_stock_market_data_for/
|
stocks
|
3m
|
rg7adr
|
(12/14) Tuesday's Pre-Market Stock Movers & News
|
#Good morning traders and investors of the r/stocks sub! Welcome to Tuesday! Here are your pre-market stock movers & news on this Tuesday, December 14th, 2021-
*****
# [Stock futures slip lower ahead of key inflation data, Fed meeting](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/13/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html)
*****
> U.S. stock index futures were marginally lower during morning trading Tuesday after the major averages started the week in the red as Covid omicron fears hit sentiment.
*****
> Futures contracts tied to the S&P 500 futures declined 0.13% while and Nasdaq 100 futures were off by nearly 0.5%. Futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average bounced between gains and losses.
*****
> Tesla shares were among the biggest early droppers on the S&P 500, falling 2.3% premarket after CEO Elon Musk announced that that he has sold another $906.5 million in shares.
*****
> Fellow automaker Ford also fell, down 2.2% following news that by 2030 Toyota would be investing $35 billion into battery-powered electronic vehicles, a space where Ford has sought to establish itself as a leader. Toyota itself declined even more, with shares off 3.4% premarket.
*****
> Pfizer shares rose nearly 1% after final results of tests on its Covid drug showed it reduced hospitalizations and deaths by 89% in high-risk patients.
*****
> The market will get fresh inflation data Tuesday when November’s producer price index number is reported. Economists are expecting it to show that prices rose 0.5% for the month, according to estimates from Dow Jones. This would be a slight slowdown from October’s 0.6% increase.
*****
> The Federal Reserve also kicks off its two-day meeting on Tuesday. The central bank will release a statement on Wednesday with quarterly projections for the economy, inflation and interest rates. Chairman Jerome Powell will also hold a press conference.
*****
> Morgan Stanley CEO James Gorman told CNBC on Monday that he thinks the central bank should start raising rates soon.
*****
> “The Federal Reserve would be better off storing away some of rate increases, so when the inevitable turn down comes, you’ve got some ammunition to fight with,” he said. “At the moment, at zero interest rates, we have no ammunition.”
*****
> Investors will be watching closely for commentary around if the Fed plans to accelerate the end of its bond-buying program. At present, the central bank’s asset purchase program will end in June 2022, but several officials have spoken about ending the purchases sooner.
*****
> “So far the bond market has given the Fed a pass on inflation — whether it will continue to do so is in doubt,” noted Willie Delwiche, investment strategist at All Star Charts. “The real fireworks coming from the meeting are likely to be around expectations for rate hikes in 2022,” he added.
*****
> The latest CNBC Fed Survey showed that investment professionals and economists expect the Fed to wind down its asset purchases by March and begin rate hikes in June.
*****
> During trading Monday, the Dow slid 0.89%, or 320 points, while the S&P 500 dipped 0.9%. The Nasdaq Composite fell 1.39% as investors rotated out of technology stocks with high valuations.
*****
> Shares of airlines and cruise line operators declined amid fears that the omicron variant could slow travel.
*****
> While equities fell broadly on Monday, growth areas of the market underperformed. The iShares Russell 1000 Growth ETF dipped 1.22%, while the iShares Russell 1,000 Value ETF declined 0.45%.
*****
> Despite Monday’s decline for equities, the S&P 500 is roughly 1.6% below its Nov. 22 all-time intraday high. The Dow is 2.5% below its record, while the Nasdaq Composite is about 5% under its high-water mark. The Russell 2000 index is down a sharper 11.3% since its Nov. 8 high.
*****
> Looking forward, some strategists, including LPL Financial’s Ryan Detrick, believe there’s upside ahead for equities.
*****
> “We believe pent-up demand, gradual improvement in supply chain challenges, solid labor force growth, and productivity gains will all contribute to another year of above-trend economic growth in 2022,” he wrote in a note to clients. “COVID-19-related risks remain and the potential for a policy mistake may be elevated as the economy moves towards normalization, but we think the overall environment will be supportive of business growth and ultimately equity markets,” he added.
*****
#STOCK FUTURES CURRENTLY:
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR STOCK FUTURES CHARTS!](https://finviz.com/futures.ashx)**)
*****
#YESTERDAY'S MARKET MAP:
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR YESTERDAY'S MARKET MAP!](https://i.imgur.com/YagIT4P.png)**)
*****
#TODAY'S MARKET MAP:
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR TODAY'S MARKET MAP!](https://finviz.com/map.ashx)**)
*****
#YESTERDAY'S S&P SECTORS:
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR YESTERDAY'S S&P SECTORS CHART!](https://i.imgur.com/QbEGJFO.png)**)
*****
#TODAY'S S&P SECTORS:
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR TODAY'S S&P SECTORS CHART!](https://finviz.com/groups.ashx)**)
*****
#TODAY'S ECONOMIC CALENDAR:
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR TODAY'S ECONOMIC CALENDAR!](https://i.imgur.com/R1qJCX7.png)**)
*****
#THIS WEEK'S ECONOMIC CALENDAR:
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR THIS WEEK'S ECONOMIC CALENDAR!](https://i.imgur.com/iF0hbEZ.png)**)
*****
#THIS WEEK'S UPCOMING IPO'S:
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR THIS WEEK'S UPCOMING IPO'S!](https://i.imgur.com/FwXIQ6E.png)**)
*****
#THIS WEEK'S EARNINGS CALENDAR:
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR THIS WEEK'S EARNINGS CALENDAR!](https://i.imgur.com/jciUpQX.png)**)
*****
#THIS MORNING'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS CALENDAR:
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR THIS MORNING'S EARNINGS CALENDAR!](https://i.imgur.com/uoK7zjI.png)**)
*****
#EARNINGS RELEASES BEFORE THE OPEN TODAY:
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR THIS MORNING'S EARNINGS RELEASES!](https://i.imgur.com/h4BXqOf.png)**)
*****
#EARNINGS RELEASES AFTER THE CLOSE TODAY:
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR THIS AFTERNOON'S EARNINGS RELEASES!](https://i.imgur.com/MlwKSl1.png)**)
*****
#YESTERDAY'S ANALYST UPGRADES/DOWNGRADES:
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR YESTERDAY'S ANALYST UPGRADES/DOWNGRADES LINK #1!](https://i.imgur.com/koovGpo.png)**)
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR YESTERDAY'S ANALYST UPGRADES/DOWNGRADES LINK #2!](https://i.imgur.com/LDsAuVQ.png)**)
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR YESTERDAY'S ANALYST UPGRADES/DOWNGRADES LINK #3!](https://i.imgur.com/z72OmNg.png)**)
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR YESTERDAY'S ANALYST UPGRADES/DOWNGRADES LINK #4!](https://i.imgur.com/g8nGAU7.png)**)
*****
#YESTERDAY'S INSIDER TRADING FILINGS:
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR YESTERDAY'S INSIDER TRADING FILINGS!](https://i.imgur.com/ilrOHpX.png)**)
*****
#TODAY'S DIVIDEND CALENDAR:
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR TODAY'S DIVIDEND CALENDAR!]()**)
(N/A.)
*****
#THIS MORNING'S STOCK NEWS MOVERS:
######(**source: [cnbc.com](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/14/stocks-making-the-biggest-moves-premarket-gamestop-amc-beyond-meat-and-others.html)**)
*****
> **GameStop (GME)** – The videogame retailer – one of the so-called “meme” stocks – lost another 3.1% in the premarket following a nearly 14% tumble yesterday to its lowest close since March. GameStop had seen its stock slide last week after reporting a wider quarterly loss.
> #**STOCK SYMBOL:** GME
> * [CLICK HERE FOR CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=GME&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)
> ######(**[CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!](http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/GME)**)
*****
> **AMC Entertainment (AMC)** – The movie theater operator’s stock slid 6% in premarket trading, after extending a losing streak to 3 days with a more than 15% plummet Monday. Last week, CEO Adam Aron sold all his holdings in AMC while CFO Sean Goodman sold the bulk of his AMC stock.
> #**STOCK SYMBOL:** AMC
> * [CLICK HERE FOR CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=AMC&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)
> ######(**[CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!](http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/AMC)**)
*****
> **Beyond Meat (BYND)** – The maker of plant-based meat substitutes saw its stock jump 4.8% in premarket action, putting it in a position to break a 3-day losing streak. Piper Sandler upgraded the stock to “neutral” from “underweight,” saying a nationwide launch at McDonald’s (MCD) could happen within less than 3 months.
> #**STOCK SYMBOL:** BYND
> * [CLICK HERE FOR CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=BYND&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)
> ######(**[CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!](http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/BYND)**)
*****
> **Pfizer (PFE)** – The drugmaker said a final study of its antiviral Covid-19 pill showed it to be 89% effective in preventing hospitalizations and deaths in high-risk patients, similar to what earlier studies had shown. It added that the drug appears to be effective against the omicron variant.
> #**STOCK SYMBOL:** PFE
> * [CLICK HERE FOR CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=PFE&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)
> ######(**[CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!](http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/PFE)**)
*****
> **Tesla (TSLA)** – Tesla shares slid 1.5% in premarket trading after CEO Elon Musk sold more of his holdings to cover tax bills generated by the exercising of stock options. Tesla has dropped more than 20% from its all-time high and its overall market value has fallen back under the $1 trillion mark.
> #**STOCK SYMBOL:** TSLA
> * [CLICK HERE FOR CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=TSLA&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)
> ######(**[CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!](http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/TSLA)**)
*****
> **Weibo (WB)** – Weibo slid 5.3% in the premarket after the China-based social networking company was fined 3 million yuan (about $471,000) by regulators, who said some of Weibo’s accounts and content violated various laws and regulations.
> #**STOCK SYMBOL:** WB
> * [CLICK HERE FOR CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=WB&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)
> ######(**[CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!](http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/WB)**)
*****
> **Terminix Global (TMX)** – The pest control company’s shares soared 21.9% in the premarket after it agreed to be acquired by British rival Rentokil for $6.7 billion in cash and stock.
> #**STOCK SYMBOL:** TMX
> * [CLICK HERE FOR CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=TMX&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)
> ######(**[CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!](http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/TMX)**)
*****
> **Alcoa (AA)** – The aluminum producer’s shares rallied 4.2% in premarket trading following news that the stock will be added to the S&P Midcap 400 Index prior to the opening of trading next Monday. It replaces Hill-Rom Holdings, which is being acquired by Baxter International (BAX).
> #**STOCK SYMBOL:** AA
> * [CLICK HERE FOR CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=AA&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)
> ######(**[CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!](http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/AA)**)
*****
> **Dell Technologies (DELL)** – The computer maker’s stock was downgraded to “in line” from “outperform” at Evercore, which notes Dell’s nearly 60% appreciation this year ahead of what it sees as a moderating personal computer market. Dell lost 1.7% in the premarket.
> #**STOCK SYMBOL:** DELL
> * [CLICK HERE FOR CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=DELL&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)
> ######(**[CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!](http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/DELL)**)
*****
> **Ralph Lauren (RL)** – The apparel maker slid 3% in the premarket after a Goldman Sachs double downgrade to “sell” from “buy” on the thesis that brand momentum indicators are fading.
> #**STOCK SYMBOL:** RL
> * [CLICK HERE FOR CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=RL&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)
> ######(**[CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!](http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/RL)**)
*****
> **Neogen (NEOG)** – The food safety company’s stock surged 12.1% in premarket trading after it announced a deal to combine itself with the food safety division of 3M (MMM).
> #**STOCK SYMBOL:** NEOG
> * [CLICK HERE FOR CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=NEOG&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)
> ######(**[CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!](http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/NEOG)**)
*****
#**FULL DISCLOSURE:**
> /u/bigbear0083 has no positions in any stocks mentioned. Reddit, moderators, and the author do not advise making investment decisions based on discussion in these posts. Analysis is not subject to validation and users take action at their own risk.
*****
#**DISCUSS!**
What's on everyone's radar for today's trading day ahead here at r/stocks?
*****
# **I hope you all have an excellent trading day ahead today on this Tuesday, December 14th, 2021! :)**
| 1,639,487,860
|
2021-12-14 13:17:40
|
bigbear0083
| 11
| 10
| 0.77
| null |
/r/stocks/comments/rg7adr/1214_tuesdays_premarket_stock_movers_news/
|
https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/rg7adr/1214_tuesdays_premarket_stock_movers_news/
|
stocks
|
3m
|
r79xxu
|
$POWW - Ammo Producer and Biggest Online Gun Broker That Can Defeat the Short Sellers and Protect Your Portfolio against Omicron and Infla
|
**Silver line: $POWW (Ammo Inc.) owns the biggest online market place for guns and ammunition,is making one of the best ammo in the market and they have a game changer in military industry.**
**Oh, and they are profitable making more money every quarter.**
**They’ve been hammered down presenting a good buying opportunity ahead of Omicron fears and/or long lasting inflation.**
**What can actually move $POWW higher?**
**New Covid wave**
Omicron or not, there is clear spike in infections across the globe.
**While media and goverments are still wondering is Omicron is just as bad or worse than Delta, you can have a look in South Africa.** "The number of new cases reported in South Africa doubled from Tuesday to Wednesday." - and **Three-quarters of S.African samples are now Omicron.** [**https://www.reuters.com/world/us-tightens-covid-19-travel-rules-countries-race-quell-omicron-threat-2021-12-01/**](https://www.reuters.com/world/us-tightens-covid-19-travel-rules-countries-race-quell-omicron-threat-2021-12-01/)
**How a new Covid wave will impact $POWW?**
**Online sales boost**
New spike in infections will lead to imposed or self imposed restrictions so more online shopping.
**There is only one big player out there in guns and ammo e-commerce.**
It is called [Gunbroker.com](https://gunbroker.com/) (gun owners reading this know it for sure) and it this the world’s largest gun and ammunition auction platform.
It is like Amazon or Ebay for guns and it is owned by Ammo Inc. aka $POWW.
Accprding to Similarweb gunbroker.com is the most popular website in e-commerce/auctions category in US. Seriously, check it on Similarweb:
[https://www.similarweb.com/top-websites/united-states/category/e-commerce-and-shopping/auctions/](https://www.similarweb.com/top-websites/united-states/category/e-commerce-and-shopping/auctions/)
With 15M visits per month, (Also on SMW) 99.96% of their traffic is **organic, meaning that they get all that traffic for free trough google searches for guns, ammunition or other sports&hunting related searches.**
Small and big gun producers are selling guns and ammo to some 6 -7M registered users.
Gunbroker is even used by analysts and industry experts as a data stream for estimating gun sales.
Even under peaceful conditions (reopening) in q3 the revenues from [gunbroker.com](https://gunbroker.com/) spiked to 16M from 12M in Q2.
Imagine how this numbers will look with pandemic boosted online sales.
**NOTE : Gunbroker business can protect against inflation too**
$POWW is taking a fee from the sellers once a deal is made.the fee is based on the transaction value. With bigger prices POWW will take a bigger fee. Being the biggest and best in this sector, Gunbroker has the pricing power.
The operation costs for Gunbroker are extremely low with a high profit margin (remember that 99.96% organic(free) search traffic?)
While margin for the online platform are not detailed in earnings, we know that overall profit margin was 40% for all business lines of Ammo Inc in q3 and that the online market place has “substantially contributed to improve margins from only 10% in q3 2020.
**So - online market place owned by POWW is making money and is growing fast. An increase in online shopping due to current pandmic conditions can boost that even higher.**
**Let’s go to the second catalyst:**
**Spike in gun/ammo sales**
Now, we don’t know how well gun sales performed in Nov. 2021 but we do know (thanks to the FBI public data) that 2.7M background checks ( legal step before buying guns),were reported in Nov.2021 - Higher than October and **second highest number for November in US history.**
[https://www.fbi.gov/file-repository/nics\_firearm\_checks\_-\_month\_year.pdf/view](https://www.fbi.gov/file-repository/nics_firearm_checks_-_month_year.pdf/view)
**Why second? Because the highest number of gun sales in US history was in 2020. What happened in 2020? Yeah, the pandemic.**
**Gun sales jumped in 2020 also because pple feared Biden will restrict gun sales and also because there was constant civil unrest.**
**But US has not seen this level of interest in guns before Obama became president (also pple expected him to restrict gun sales), neither during Occupy wall street movement.**
**So the main reason was the pandemic helped by political and civil unrest.**
**Guess what will happen with the new Omicron variant?**
Remember the last lock down? Everybody was running to the shop to stock supplies.
**This time people know the drill.** It doesn't take a full lockdown for people to run to the shop. At the first signs of trouble people will stock supplies. Gun owners will most likely buy at least some more ammo.
Guess who’s making a lot of that ammunition? Yup, Ammo Inc.
Gunbroker platform is actually a recent aquisition of Ammo Inc. Their core business is producing quality ammunition for a wide range of guns and calibre.
Their ammunition business has seen a 360% increase in Q3 vs Q3 2020.
They even have some cool innovations to boost the sales: Visual ammo called Streak.
This patented technology is making the bullets emit a light that can be seen by the shooter.
There were previous attempts in the industry - laser beams, burning bullets. This one has a game changer advantage:
The light is cold - so they don’t burn things and the angle of visibility is only 30%. This means that YOU can see your bullet path but it does not give your position.
The sales for POWW ammunition were almost as much as they could produce. So they boosted the production capacity.
**IMPORTANT- they boosted production that while still staying profitable with an GAAP EPS of 0.11 !**
**With a spike in ammunition demand - the earnings of POWW will fly like a rocket.**
And customers can’t go to local shops to buy POWW ammunition - no problem- they can always buy from [gunbroker.com](https://gunbroker.com/) \- owned by POWW.
Lets see the 3rd catalyst:
**DoD follow up contracts - In September DOD contracted POWW to design and produce visual ammunition for military special ops. In army terms -** signature-on-target rounds (SoT).
**The specially designed bullets will have one extra feature on top of the commercially available STREAK.**
**Military Ammo rounds will be visible in daylight!**
**This is game changer in the militar. Don’t take my word for it , DOD is explaining:**
"The SoT ammunition is being developed to provide warfighters with the ability to see the impact of rounds fired from their weapon systems on a wider variety of targets, both day and night. The SoT ammunition allows the machine gunner to see bullet impacts without a visible signature in flight exposing their firing location in the manner which occurs with currently utilized tracer ammunition. **This advanced capability will increase survivability by reducing firing position identification and increase lethality by supporting the shooter’s ability to place more rounds on target and in the beaten zone."**
[**https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2021/09/23/2302217/0/en/AMMO-Inc-Awarded-U-S-Department-of-Defense-Contract-for-the-Development-and-Manufacture-of-Signature-on-Target-Rounds.html**](https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2021/09/23/2302217/0/en/AMMO-Inc-Awarded-U-S-Department-of-Defense-Contract-for-the-Development-and-Manufacture-of-Signature-on-Target-Rounds.html)
**Now this might explain the back log of Ammo INc. That is pretty impressive: 185M.**
But I kept mentioning their financial performance and how well they are building their business.
**So, Just how well Ammo Inc. did in the last earnings?**
Net revenues increased 408% to $61.0 million
Marketplace revenue of $16.8 million
Gross profit margin was 43.0% compared to 10.7%
Net income was $14.1 million compared to a net loss of $2.3 million
Diluted EPS of $0.11 compared to ($0.05); Adjusted EPS of $0.17 compared to ($0.01)
Adjusted EBITDA was $24.0 million versus $0.4 million
**Backlog of over $185 million**
**There is also some consistent SI on $POWW creating some nice short squeeze play:**
Official (old) Nasdaq data - Nov 15,there were some 13.3M shares short out of a 87M float.That is 15.5% shorted.
Now, on Fintell you can see that in the last 2 weeks there has been at least some 5-6M short sells and every day 50-60% of the traded float was in short sales.
Only on Nov. 16 there were some 2.5M short activity recorded in Fintell.
Hard to estimate how much is shorted right now - but this week short sellers have been trigger happy too (Omicron and Powell statements made them hawkish).
**I would say close to 20M shorted and probably they build short positions as we speak.**
Why? Very god earnings gave a little bit of spike for Ammo and short sellers got greedy and jumped hoping that the society will return to "normal" and the interest in gun stocks will fade, driving the price down.
**They have been right about that, until now.**
**Conclusion**
**Short Interest is pretty high, $POWW is making more money as we speak and they have at least 3 catalysts ahead that can push them higher, very fast.**
But don't let only the SI drive your buy. POWW is a good long bet beside that numbers.
If you fear Omicron impact on your portfolio or if you are looking for opportunistic buy under this new market conditions, POWW is good candidate.
If Omicron or Covid in general will fade away, we’ll have to deal with a non transitory inflation.
As I explain above, POWW, especially trough their online gun market place will thrive under inflation as they will take a bigger fee for each sale while keeping the costs of operations under control and they have the pricing power to do so.
Certain trends will not change soon: a rising level of urban criminality & property crimes, increased poverty in some areas, very unstable world due to pandemic and economic crises.
Having Ammo only makes sense.
Good luck to you all.
| 1,638,459,020
|
2021-12-02 15:30:20
|
invest_opinions
| 8
| 6
| 0.64
|
Company Discussion
|
/r/stocks/comments/r79xxu/poww_ammo_producer_and_biggest_online_gun_broker/
|
https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/r79xxu/poww_ammo_producer_and_biggest_online_gun_broker/
|
stocks
|
3m
|
r78m8w
|
TDOC holder, trying to calm myself...
|
**Trying to wrap my mind around this: About a year ago, TDOC finalized the buying of Livongo for 18.3B. Now TDOC is worth around 15B.**
I was "forced" into TDOC because of that, as my shares were transferred to TDOC. Was around 150% up in LVGO, but missed the merger date so was not able to sell my LVGO shares on time. TDOC then picked up a bit of momentum in early 2021, reaching an ATH of 308 in February. Now trading around 92/93, that is a 70% decline in 8 months! I kept on buying the "dips" since February, now holding 455 shares at 149$, -35% down (-22.5K$)
Amazing how things could change that much within a year! This is even wild in the K\*R\*Y\*P\*T\*O market.....
And the sad thing is, even if there comes a stellar q4 ER report, the stock may go up 10% or so, no more..... but to break even, I need 53% runup... Also strange that the stock is plunging even on those days the covid variant FUD is lifting some covid play stocks like ZM and PLTON. The recent sell off of some growth stock (E.g. NET, SE, ) could be attributed to profit taking as they have rallied pretty hard this year, which is the opposite of TDOC...
I read a recent article from Seeking A\* entitled "Teladoc: Understanding The Difference Between A Broken Company And A Broken Stock", that comforted me a bit, sharing the highlights here below:
​
**TLDR**
**T*****eladoc shareholders had a rough couple of months as shares declined by more than 40% YTD and are down roughly 60% from all-time highs in February.***
***Telehealth has seen rapid uptake during the pandemic and utilization rates continue to be more than 30-times higher than pre-pandemic.***
***McKinsey estimated that telehealth could become a >$250bn annual market opportunity in the US alone.***
***Teladoc has pioneered the telehealth industry and has shown strong operating performance while many competitors are failing to keep up.***
***The big question is if the stock can shake off the negative sentiment as a Covid stock and reverse its downtrend. We believe it can.***
***In our view, investors are currently factoring in too much negativity with Teladoc. We believe that the company's future will be driven by the inevitable adoption of virtual care delivery which will help to eliminate major healthcare resource constraints, especially for physician visits and chronic disease management. Remember that the Telehealth market in the US alone is estimated to be a quarter-trillion dollar opportunity at some point. With the majority of that market coming from virtual physician office visits ($126 billion) and the remaining opportunity being equally distributed from virtual urgent care, near-virtual office visits, virtual home health services, as well as tech-enabled home medication administration, Teladoc seems perfectly positioned to capture a significant share of this market as it continues to build out its multitude of services. We believe Teladoc should be able to address up to 80% of the market opportunity with its services.***
\--------------------------------------------
Article (without figures)
It is important to highlight that the telehealth market is still in its infancy and subject to many barriers like accessibility, quality perception, as well as regulatory and partial reimbursement restrictions. The global telehealth market was valued at 62.5 billion USD in 2020 and forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 26.5% until 2026. North America remains by far the largest market as the US market revenue crossed USD 36.6bn in 2020. The US market is expected to grow at a CAGR of close to 30% until 2026 which would result in a market size of >$150 billion by 2026.
There is no doubt that Teladoc will likely continue to grow its business at a significant pace, albeit at slower rates than during the heights of the pandemic. In our view the return to more reasonable and sustainable growth rates was inevitable. At the same time, management's forecast for >$4bn in revenue by 2024 means the company will at least double its current revenues within 3 years which is a strong sign of confidence. We believe that Teladoc can sustain these growth rates at least until 2026 and may be able to reach between $6.2 and $7.5 bn in revenues by 2026. At a current market cap of 18 billion, shares are starting to look quite attractive for long-term investors.
​
​
There is a big difference between a broken company and a broken stock and being able to make returns in a selloff requires understanding the difference between the two. When the market or a particular sector suffers huge losses, investors have an opportunity to buy good companies that have taken an unfair beating at attractive prices. We believe Teladoc (TDOC) provides such an opportunity given its leadership position in a secular growth industry. When speaking about telehealth, the first company that actually comes to mind is Teladoc as it has pioneered the rise of the telehealth market to a large extent, which was further accelerated by the pandemic.
​
Teladoc shares entered 2020 just above $80 per share. The share price shot higher amidst increased demand for virtual healthcare delivery as the pandemic hit the world. Shares reached an all-time high in the beginning of 2021 around $300. Since the end of February, shares are in a continuous downtrend and are down more than 40% YTD and around 60% since its all-time highs in February, compared to a 25% YTD gain for the S&P 500.
​
And while the company continued to report strong growth rates, investors seem concerned about the sustainability of the company's growth and path to profitability. Teladoc posted another set of strong topline growth rates in its most recent quarter, while also boosting its full-year revenue guidance. Management also provided a longer-term outlook until 2024 at its most recent investor day calling for >$4bn in revenue, representing a CAGR between 25 to 30%.
​
But that seemingly isn't enough to please investors and reverse the downtrend. While the outlook anticipates strong sustained growth, the growth rate is far lower compared to last year. In our view, the return to more reasonable and sustainable growth rates was inevitable in light of the re-opening of economies across the globe. Nevertheless, Teladoc's 2024 forecast means the company will continue its strong path of growth (albeit at slower rates) and will at least double its current revenues within 3 years.
​
We believe that Teladoc can sustain these growth rates at least until 2026 and may be able to reach between $6.2 and $7.5 bn in revenues by 2026. At a current market cap of 18 billion, shares are starting to look quite attractive for long-term investors that may want to participate in this secular growth industry.
​
This article will look at Teladoc's most recent financial performance, outlook and will put things into context of the current state of telehealth globally. Let's start with the latter.
​
The Current State of Telehealth
Telehealth is seeing a historically high consumer demand that keeps to be significantly higher than pre-Covid-pandemic levels. While telehealth was rather perceived as a commodity, the pandemic has shown that it became an essential part of our everyday lives. It has become a necessity, an important bridge to allow patients to continue to receive necessary care. Telehealth has enabled to eliminate major healthcare system constraints, e.g., hospital beds and physician visiting hours that were needed for taking care of Covid patients while capacities for regular in-patient visits in chronic or mental care were almost completely eliminated.
​
On the basis of a recent study by McKinsey, Teladoc estimates that the opportunity for telehealth adoption in the US alone could represent up to $261 billion.
​
It is important to highlight that this opportunity still needs to be fully realized as the industry is still in its infancy and subject to many barriers like accessibility, quality, as well as regulatory and partial reimbursement restrictions. In 2020 the global telehealth market was valued at $62.45 billion and is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 26.5% until 2026, and North America crossed $36.6 billion in annual spend. Analysts are expecting the US market to grow at a CAGR of close to 30% until 2026 which would result in a market size of >$150 billion by 2026.
​
With this huge opportunity in mind, where do we stand today?
Overall, there are 3 key enablers that determine the future market growth: 1) consumer demand and acceptance, 2) provider willingness and ability to offer telehealth on a more regular basis, and 3) regulatory changes supporting necessary access and reimbursement.
​
In terms of consumer demand, a McKinsey report showed that, in April 2020, right after the COVID pandemic hit the world, telehealth utilization was 78 times higher than in February 2020.
​
Now that the pandemic is having less of an impact as vaccines have become widely available, and lockdown restrictions are being lifted, telehealth use is still at significantly higher levels than pre-pandemic. Telehealth utilization has now stabilized at levels 38X higher vs. pre-pandemic. At the beginning of the pandemic, more than 32% of office and outpatient visits were occurring via telehealth in April 2020. Now utilization levels have largely stabilized with up to 17% of all outpatient/office-based visits being delivered virtually or virtually-enabled.
​
Despite the relatively higher overall utilization rates compared to pre-pandemic levels, there is still a high level of variation with respect to the point of care and specialties where telehealth is being provided, with mental health services and endocrinology being in the top 3 of service modalities as of February 2021. Similarly, perception of telehealth usage has continuously improved. Around half of the consumers intend to continue to use telehealth going forward, up from 11% prior to COVID-19. This is in line with what Teladoc reported during its most recent Investor Day Presentation.
​
However, there is still some concern, especially on the consumer side on the quality, safety and accessibility of the technology, the latter being especially true for elderly people. Telehealth care delivery models are likely to adapt to such barriers by means of extending their platform offerings from fully virtual care delivery to offering also hybrid virtual and technology enabled in-person care delivery to really break down such barriers.
​
On the provider side, McKinsey suggests that more than half (58%) of doctors view telehealth more favorably now than they did before the COVID pandemic. Looking at actual utilization, 84% of doctors are now offering virtual visits. It has become clear, however, that costs of care delivery and reimbursement regulations are important aspects to consider moving forward.
​
Also, from a regulatory standpoint, things have progressed in favor of making telehealth a permanent care delivery option, enabling access and reimbursement for a range of telehealth services. For example, the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services have expanded coverage on reimbursable telehealth services in the 2021 physician fee schedule final rule.
​
Investments in virtual healthcare have skyrocketed lately, with 3 times the level of venture investment in 2020 vs. 2017. Per Rock Health's H1 2021 digital health funding report 10 the total venture capital investment into the digital health space in the first half of 2021 totaled $14.6 billion, nearly twice the investment from 2019 ($7.7 billion).
*Is Telehealth here to stay?*
As we continue to move out of the pandemic into a more normalized healthcare delivery environment, there is no doubt that telehealth will remain an important component of healthcare delivery, supported by improved customer and provider perceptions, regulatory improvements, and a broadening of access to and coverage of services. Further broad-based adoption will require that providers and regulators work closely together to address some of the still imminent barriers, especially integrating virtually enabled services into the day-to-day routine of clinicians to enable hybrid care models.
One last point to note is that telehealth still remains a highly fragmented industry. This creates two important necessities: first, there is a clear need for a better and more holistic value proposition by means of a whole-person care approach where services from multiple disciplines are integrated to provide the best customer experience. From an industry perspective, this means that consolidation is inevitable to achieve this necessary level of integration.
This brings us to the most important conclusion: telehealth will likely be a winner takes most industry and only a few relevant players will be able to scale their services and will take most of the market opportunity. McKinsey estimated that up to $250 billion in annual healthcare spend could be up for grab, with the majority of that market coming from virtual physician office visits ($126 billion) and the remaining opportunity being equally distributed from virtual urgent care ($35bn), near-virtual office visits ($39 bn), and virtual home health services ($35 bn), as well as an additional $12bn in tech-enabled home medication administration.
What does it mean for Teladoc?
With the above in mind, it becomes obvious that Teladoc has positioned itself as the leader to capture the significant market opportunity in virtual care delivery as its services address almost every area of virtual care delivery.
​
Also in terms of its provider network, Teladoc is already operating at a significant scale with its network of more than 10 thousand care providers and more than 76 Mio members as of Q3 2021. And management sees a long runway of member growth ahead with currently 92 Mio people (\~31% of insured lives in the U.S.) having access to a Teladoc product, and \~63 Mio additional potential customers to grab from existing clients, managed care organizations and Medicare & Medicaid Fee-for-Service lives.
​
Management also believes that the opportunity across the 92 Mio individuals who currently have access to one of its services constitutes at least a $75bn annual revenue opportunity, with significant upside to $137bn if customers would opt for multi-product adoption across Teladoc's services portfolio.
​
Below is an illustration on how multi-product adoption by an employer with 10,000 customers may lead to 4.1x higher revenues vs. a single condition product adoption. This is an important aspect to keep in mind as medical conditions do not occur in isolation, and for example, 40% of Americans live with two or more chronic conditions (like diabetes and hypertension) in parallel and would benefit from an integrated care delivery approach. Teladoc's solutions can offer exactly what is needed and can reinforce each other to drive broader engagement across the platform.
​
And Teladoc is in a leading position to make whole-person virtual care delivery a reality, especially through its Primary360 platform, which functions as the gateway to enabling fully integrated whole-person care delivery. Management estimates that around 80% of the US population could benefit from one of its primary care services under the Primary360 platform, with the total addressable market for managing Diabetes and Hypertension alone representing a $47bn opportunity.
​
Its ability to penetrate the increasing customer need for virtual care delivery solutions is also reflected in the most recent quarterly numbers. For Q3 2021, Teladoc reported:
Revenue growth of 81% YoY to $522 million, and adjusted EBITDA of $67.4 million, growing by 71% YoY.
Revenue growth was driven by +99% YoY growth in access fees revenue and +18% YoY growth in visit fee revenue. Growth in the US came in at 89% vs. 17% growth for international geographies. The difference between US and international is partly historical but was also impacted by the acquisition of Livongo, which is only available to US customers at the moment.
Total visits for the quarter reached 3.9M at a 37% YoY growth rate, showing an acceleration from around 28% growth in the previous quarter, and driven by a 40% increase in US visits vs. 19% growth for international visits.
U.S. Paid Members gained \~2% YoY in Q3, which is a deceleration from the prior-year growth. However, it is good to see that Paid Members and PMPM (per member per month) fees are continuing to trend upwards in parallel as both are two important metrics that together will drive topline growth moving forward.
Most importantly the percentage of chronic care members enrolled in more than one program has grown 3x year-over-year to 24% in the most recent quarter, while more than 40% of telehealth members have access to multiple products compared to less than 10% in 2017.
Looking at profitability, net loss for Q3 more than doubled from the prior-year quarter to reach $84.3M. The lack of profitability is one of the most frequently raised concerns by investors and deserves a look under the surface. Net loss for Q3 was mainly driven by stock-based compensation (SBC), mostly in relation to the recent Livongo acquisition. Teladoc actually reported positive adjusted EBITDA when excluding SBC (which accounted for 85% of the quarter's net loss) and some other smaller items.
The impact from SBC on profitability is expected to decrease over the coming quarters, and when it does we expect Teladoc to make significant steps towards GAAP profitability.
Irrespective of this Teladoc is already showing its cash-generating potential as the company posted a positive operating cash flow of $111 million over the past 9 months, which increased the overall cash position to $823.8M.
Goss margins remained in line with previous quarters, but adjusted EBITDA margins showed a slight decrease in Q3 vs. prior quarters.
Teladoc also boosted its 2021 revenue outlook to between $2.015 to $2.025 billion, compared to \~$2.0B analyst consensus, indicating a \~85% YoY growth at the midpoint. The company also boosted its guidance for total visits to 14.5 to 14.7 Mio, implying 37% to 39% growth, up from the prior guidance of 13.5 to 14.0 Mio visits.
During its investor day management also provided a longer-term outlook for 2024 and expects to generate in excess of $4bn in revenue in FY 2024, implying between 25-30% compounded annual revenue growth throughout 2024.
In our view, the 2024 forecast is quite impressive as it means the company will at least double its current FY 21 revenues within 3 years, at scale, which is a strong sign of confidence by management.
​
*So What?*
Now, there are several concerns by investors that keep weighing on the stock despite strong continued growth. Most importantly, investors fear that Teladoc's growth rates cannot be sustained. This is a valid concern which is already visible in many of Teladoc's metrics, including:
Revenue growth, where the growth rate declined to 81% in Q3 from 109% in Q2 2021. And while the revenue outlook for FY 2021 indicates a robust 85% growth rate (vs. 98% YoY growth in 2020), it's probably the 2022 outlook that surprised investors where management provided a preliminary outlook of $2.6bn in FY22 revenue, implying only 28-29% growth vs. FY 2021.
The growth deceleration is also visible in the customer metrics as U.S. Paid Members came in at \~2% YoY growth, a deceleration from 41% growth for FY 2020, and 20% YoY growth in Q1 2021.
There are two additional concerns that weigh on the stock: one is the above-mentioned concern on profitability. On the surface, Teladoc's net loss during the past nine months increased roughly 4-fold compared to the first nine months of 2020 with current 9-month net loss of $(417.8) million compared to $(91.2) million for the first 9 months of 2020. However, as outlined above, most of this is driven by SBC in relation to the Livongo acquisition which should have a declining impact moving forward.
Lastly, there is competition, which is trying to eat away Teladoc's lunch. Competitors like Amwell (AMWL) continue to expand their services which could become a threat to Teladoc in the fight for market share. In addition, big players are also expanding their telehealth capabilities, e.g. insurer Cigna (NYSE:CI) through its acquisition of MDLive, or Amazon (AMZN) who is significantly expanding its Amazon Care ambition. It's important to highlight again that the market is still very fragmented but only a few have achieved to operate at significant scale, including Teladoc. And Teladoc continues to expand its service offerings, including its recently launched mental health service myStrength Complete, which integrates capabilities to deliver comprehensive virtual mental care delivery, which were shown to have the highest penetration rates at the moment (see McKinsey data above).
Teladoc is further expanding in the US but also internationally which is key to maintaining and build out its leadership position:
In Q3, Teladoc has signed new agreements with CVS Health and Centene to on Teladoc's Health's Primary360 platform.
Teladoc was selected as a vendor by Canada Health Infoway for its whole-person care services, which serve approximately 60% of Canada's population.
Announced a strategic partnership with Philips to deliver virtual healthcare solutions in Australia and New Zealand.
Signed an agreement with giant Latin American telecom company Telefonica, which expands the existing partnership to make Teladoc's services available to over 60 million people in Brazil.
Announced a collaboration with Microsoft (MSFT) to integrate Teladoc's solo platform for health systems into Microsoft Teams to streamline clinician workflows into a unified experience.
Not to forget, in midst of the pandemic Teladoc made a key strategic acquisition with Livongo, a leader in the virtual diabetes and chronic disease management space, which gave the company access to key technological properties that are now leveraged within other services, including the recently launched mental health service, myStrength Complete. The Livongo contribution is paying off nicely as member data points continued to increase significantly, showing over 100% YoY growth to 1.99 billion (cumulative).
All of this also contributed to the fact that Teladoc ranked highest among direct-to-consumer providers in the J.D. Power 2021 U.S. Telehealth Satisfaction Study nearly 30 points above the category average, outperforming all other providers. Teladoc is continuing to provide industry-leading quality of services while expanding geographically and from a product-offerings perspective which is key to maintaining its leadership position moving forward.
| 1,638,455,211
|
2021-12-02 14:26:51
|
futureIsYes
| 6
| 15
| 0.64
|
Company Discussion
|
/r/stocks/comments/r78m8w/tdoc_holder_trying_to_calm_myself/
|
https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/r78m8w/tdoc_holder_trying_to_calm_myself/
|
stocks
|
3m
|
qwxmsh
|
Naked / Cenntro Merger … an undervalued EV?
|
Hopefully since this is a NASDAQ listed company it is OK to post this here….
I’ve been thinking about this one and wanted to sleep on it and crunch some numbers to see what a real valuation of this weird sorta deal would be. I had to research both companies to see how this would work. I’m also just going to copy and paste some other persons article where it makes sense…why waste time.
Naked Brand is an apparel stock that has been on the edge of Nasdaq delisting for several years.
Cenntro Automotive is a privately held electric commercial vehicle maker looking to expand its production to meet soaring demand.
The oddly assorted companies are planning a merger that will bring Cenntro public and give it a cash infusion.
Couple important things to consider…per Schwab:
Shares outstanding are 906M
It shows 0% held by institutions but I’m not sure that is correct.
Market Cap is 627.3M.
“Naked's acquisition of Cenntro is clearly extinguishing Naked as a swimsuit and lingerie company, meaning Naked is acting in a manner very similar to a SP** and launching an effective initial public offering (IPO) for Cenntro through the merger. Naked is bringing $282 million in cash to the deal, after already providing Cenntro with a $30 million loan to help it ramp up its EV production.
Naked will spin off FOH Online, the e-commerce branch of Frederick's of Hollywood that it acquired back in 2018 for $18.2 million, as part of the merger process. Curiously, the new Cenntro will continue trading under the Naked ticker on the Nasdaq exchange, according to the press release.”
I really like this actually. Cenntro gets a lot of cash so no more share dilution right now. I’m not thrilled with the almost 1B shares but compared to other companies it is fine I guess. Naked keeps its FOH business which goes back to being a private company most likely. So far so good…
I then spent some time on Cenntro’s website and I like the vehicles. I work in one of the largest cities in the US and their vehicles are exactly the type I see running around downtown delivering to restaurants, businesses, etc….This is really more of a rival to Rivian and Ford delivery vans then it is to the luxury market. I love this point since the luxury sedan market is quickly getting too much competition….you want to be in a business that other businesses want to buy from, not retail.
Important facts from the website:
3300+ Vehicles Delivered
20 Million+ Miles Traveled
238 Patents Granted
32+ Countries Certified
26+ Countries Shipped
6+ Assembly Plants
That’s right…..they have 6 assemble plants already. What other EV manufacture has that?
Check out their website: https://www.cenntroauto.com
I actually really like all their vehicles but check out the ORV and iChassis. The iChassis is an autonomous driving platform that is pretty cool. I have not seen anything like it from the other EV manufactures. The metro can be anything from a small dump truck (perfect for landscapers in parks, golf courses, etc) and the Logistar 400 is basically a UPS style van. I think once you see their vehicle fleet you will be pretty impressed.
Current Targets:
In 2021, 1,500 vehicles delivered, $25.3 million in revenue.
In 2022, 21,500 vehicles delivered, $506 million in revenue.
In 2023, 74,800 vehicles delivered, $2.1 billion in revenue.
IF they can accomplish this, the stock is trading at about 1.25X next years revenue. Yup….
Final Thoughts:
“On April 24, the index sent a noncompliance warning to Naked after its shares traded under $1 for 30 consecutive days. At that point, Nasdaq officials gave Naked the standard 180 days to raise its bid price above $1 for 10 consecutive days to comply or be taken off the index. Naked failed to meet the deadline by the Oct. 26 deadline, but Nasdaq granted a 180-day extension on Oct. 27. The company must now comply by April 25, 2022.”
Cenntro is not going to take this route to go public if they think there is a high likelihood that the stock will stay under $1. They are betting it gets above $1 and they are going to do whatever they need to do to get it there. For the next six months I expect to see:
Constant updates for vehicle sales to pump up the stock price.
1. Updates for patents and vehicle upgrades.
2. “Surprise” beat on earnings first two quarters of 2022.
3. No further dilution by offering more stock…that would take the price down.
4. Ticker symbol change announcement once the deal is finalized by the end of 2021.
5. At least one major deal with a big company before April 2022.
6. They have 8 trade shows on their current calendar…hopefully will lead to more sales.
Bear Case:
Cenntro’s targets could be too aggressive and they can’t meet them. This doesn’t seem likely to me but companies often offer too rosy of a future outlook.
People can’t get past the Naked brand and don’t buy the stock which leads to de-listing. (This is why I’m pretty positive they will request a ticker change with NASDAQ).
There are too many shares and bag holders which will cause resistance on the way up. (This didn’t stop Lucid and SOFI….they had so many bag holders in the 20s after they dropped down to the teens).
They say they have 6+ assembly plants…so far in my research I have only found references to facilities in Jacksonville, Florida and Düsseldorf, Germany.
With the shareholder split 70% / 30 % at the close of the transaction, I have no idea how this will effect the stock of naked shareholders. Any experts that can enlighten?
Most important comment from CEO of Cenntro in call: “While we confidentially submitted a draft S-1 to go public via an IPO, we came to believe that Naked allowed us to go public faster, providing the working capital to support our substantial backlog. “. And that my friends, is as bullish as it gets.
Don’t look at this as buying the previous company….you are buying shares of Cenntro.
Position: 20k Shares.
| 1,637,264,066
|
2021-11-18 19:34:26
|
Phx-Jay
| 17
| 9
| 0.79
|
Company Analysis
|
/r/stocks/comments/qwxmsh/naked_cenntro_merger_an_undervalued_ev/
|
https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/qwxmsh/naked_cenntro_merger_an_undervalued_ev/
|
stocks
|
3m
|
qtzgu6
|
Extraordinary market situation for Tesla (TSLA) right now. Musk is selling 10% of his holdings. I found daily repeating patterns, is it poss
|
Ok so I there is an extraordinary opportunity to trade Tesla right now
# How it started:
[https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1457064697782489088](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1457064697782489088)
As per this tweet he announced to sell 10% of his stocks, which was at the time of his tweet: 172,6m ordinary shares
He started on monday 8th november and started selling. We know exactly how much he sells each day since he needs to file those numbers to the SEC. You can find them here: [click](https://ir.tesla.com/sec-filings)
This is the proof he is really selling as announced.
You may check this article to see its legit:
[https://www.marketwatch.com/story/elon-musk-sells-tesla-stock-in-plan-set-before-twitter-poll-sec-filing-shows-11636591389](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/elon-musk-sells-tesla-stock-in-plan-set-before-twitter-poll-sec-filing-shows-11636591389)
# How it is going:
I found this graphic on Twitter which visualizes his sales in relation to the performance of the Tesla share price: [here](https://twitter.com/RawBooty2/status/1459121681549733893)
This shows that Elons sales continously move the price downwards. Please note that the graphic wasnt updated for fridays sales yet. I will update it as soon as its available.
# Now the interesting part We know how many shares he still has to sell !
It is 17,3m shares (10% of 172,6m) minus what has been sold already.
**So that is 10,8m shares left for sale** since we know from SEC files he sold 6,5m shares until friday.
I copied all the SEC files in one Excel document and calculated the sales volumes.
​
If we assume he will continue to sell 500k - 1,2k shares a day as he did the last three days that means **he will be selling for another 9-23 trading days**.
So how do we use this knowledge ?
Well I assume and the chart proves it that the buyers will not be willing to jump in front of the bus while Elon dumps his shares. So there is a really good chance we see lower prices until he is done.
Unfortunately i cant include pictures in this post. I will give you guys a link to a post with pictures in the comments.
There was a rise in SP on Wednesday but he filed his first SEC report on Wednesday evening.
So ever since it is public knowledge that he **really** started selling and how much he sells it was going down.
# How to play it:
I see several possibilities to take profit from this knowledge
1. Hold puts until Elon is almost done
2. Sell a part of holding now and buy it back later at lower prices (some say thats what EMusk might intend to do)
3. Hold puts until Elon is done and reinvest your gains in calls
4. Look at the daily patterns, caused by Elons broker dumping shares
Again, i cant post pictures here. I will include the link to the pictured post in the comments.
You might notice that each day from Wednesday to Friday starts with a dip and then a mini rally which peaks between 10:30 AM and 11:00 AM. Followed by descending prices through the day.
Currently i am holding puts which i bought last monday and wednesday.
I am no financial advisor and please dont regard this as any form of advice or recommendation.
Please do your own due dilligence!
Edit updated numbers due to a mistake with fridays sales volume
| 1,636,923,980
|
2021-11-14 21:06:20
|
CarlosVegan
| 77
| 86
| 0.74
| null |
/r/stocks/comments/qtzgu6/extraordinary_market_situation_for_tesla_tsla/
|
https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/qtzgu6/extraordinary_market_situation_for_tesla_tsla/
|
stocks
|
3m
|
qmlkj7
|
What's happened to roku in the last 6ish months? Down 38% from its ATH back in June. Lack of moat catching up to them?
|
Makes perfect sense to me that it's down so much because it's valuation always seemed absurd but you know, so does everything else these days.
Recent news suggests it's user growth is slower than expected, 1.3m users vs 1.7m expected.
But what about earlier in the year, anybody know whats happened?
| 1,636,035,415
|
2021-11-04 14:16:55
|
thefurnaceboy
| 11
| 21
| 0.81
|
Company Question
|
/r/stocks/comments/qmlkj7/whats_happened_to_roku_in_the_last_6ish_months/
|
https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/qmlkj7/whats_happened_to_roku_in_the_last_6ish_months/
|
stocks
|
3m
|
qlw7ro
|
Peeling Back the Layers on Paysafe (PSFE) Parts 5-7
|
Here are Parts 5 - 7 of an article addressing the main bear arguments on Paysafe. Parts 1- 4 covered Paysafe’s outlook on growth, debt, and profit as well as available float. I recommend starting with the [introduction in Part 1](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/qkgndd/peeling_back_the_layers_on_paysafe_psfe/) (Growth), and following the links from there if still interested.
# 5. Blackstone Group
Many have blamed PSFE’s price decline on insider selling by pointing to Blackstone Group’s most recent 13F filings indicating a 23% reduction of their position. However, cross-referencing that 13F and the most recent [SEC filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1833835/000156459021050428/psfe-424b3.htm) with Paysafe’s March 31 20F ([p.124](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1833835/000119312521104105/d159702d20f.htm#toc)) shows that Blackstone holds the exact same number of shares as they did at the time of merger: 123.7 million shares.
It’s true, private equity lockups expired months ago and the 13F appears to show a sale of 37 million shares between Q1 and Q2. BUT, to believe that they sold those shares then you’d also have to believe that they BOUGHT 37 million shares (a half billion dollar stake) in Q1, PRIOR to their payout from merger, and then immediately turned around and sold that exact same amount of shares for a SIGNIFICANT loss, just after merger. Seems like quite a stretch. When asked directly about Blackstone’s 13F and whether they’d sold shares, Paysafe’s investor relations responded, "That swing in the 13F position was an issue with the 13F filing, but I see how that was confusing. It was not reflective of any actual open market selling of Paysafe stock."
Make of it what you will, but there’s no denying that the most recent records show that Blackstone still holds the same number of shares as they did per the original deal structure. The same is true of CVC.
Other factors to consider about Blackstone’s stake:
* Bears commonly claim Paysafe is overvalued because private equity made 3x on this investment. They reach this conclusion by ignoring the difference between market cap and enterprise value and by assuming PE was somehow awarded a full $9 billion from a $3 billion investment. In truth, as Reuters [reported](https://www.reuters.com/article/paysafe-m-a-foley-trasimene-idUSKBN28H1GP), Paysafe, “was taken private by Blackstone Group Inc and CVC Capital Partners in 2017 for $4.7 billion, inclusive of debt.” At the time of the 2021 merger, Blackstone/CVC received $2.3 billion in cash and $2.8 billion in shares. (280 million shares now worth $2.2b). At current levels, that’s a total of $4.5 billion in cash and shares. So, from their initial $3.9 billion USD (£2.96b) investment, Blackstone and CVC are currently up a mere 15%, between cash and shares. That’s after 4 years of significant strategic investment in restructuring, de-risking, replacing the Board of Directors and bringing in all new leadership (CEO, CFO, CTO, CRO, CIO, CISO etc.).
* This is part of a long term strategy. When taking Paysafe private, Blackstone/CVC [paid](https://www.finextra.com/newsarticle/30924/blackstonecvc-agree-296-billion-deal-for-paysafe) “a 42% premium over the group's average value over the past year,” because, as Reuter’s [reported](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-paysafe-group-m-a/paysafe-backs-3-9-billion-offer-from-blackstone-cvc-group-idUSKBN1AK0KN), insiders close to the deal said private equity had “a decade-long thesis that the shift to \[digital payments\] will only grow and grow and they want to get in now.” This “decade-long” thesis matches Blackstone’s typical investment term of “upwards of 7-10 years” according to their published [white paper](https://pws.blackstone.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/5/2020/09/the_life_cycle_of_private_equity_insights.pdf). 7 to 10 years would be 2024-2027, which lines up with the FTAC board investment thesis, as outlined in their [proxy statement](https://pdf.secdatabase.com/2681/0001193125-21-060961.pdf) when approving the business combination (see #9).
* More recently, Reuters [reported](https://cn.reuters.com/article/instant-article/idINKBN28H1GP): “Martin Brand, senior managing director at Blackstone, said in an interview that retaining the majority of its investment would allow the buyout firm to benefit from the expected strong performance that Paysafe will generate going forward.” Blackstone Senior Managing Director Eli Nagler said, “We believe Paysafe has a long runway for further growth and look forward to remaining part of the team and seeing their continued success as a public company.”
* And last month, CEO Philip McHugh [assured](https://bmo.qumucloud.com/view/2021-digitalbanking-paysafe#/): “You won’t see Blackstone and CVC going out there and doing big block sales any time soon. They see our story. They see the pipeline. They see the kind of top of funnel pipeline at the company where we’re gaining traction not only in US iGaming but in crypto, in travel and online gaming.”
​
# 6. Insider Ownership
Bears have argued that lack of insider ownership is a red flag but on top of the large stake held by board members, Blackstone and CVC, Paysafe’s [share registration](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1833835/000156459021050428/psfe-424b3.htm) confirms this argument is another non-starter:
* CEO Philip McHugh owns 2.4m shares
* COO Danny Chazonoff owns 2.2m shares
* Vice Chairman Joel Leonoff owns 8.3m shares
* Chairman of the Board Bill Foley owns 42m shares
* 3 Employee Trusts own 2.3m shares
​
# 7. Competition
Bears like to claim that a large competitor will eat Paysafe’s lunch, but it’s hard to ignore the fact that Paysafe is the one now encroaching on the North American market. Along with expanding in iGaming, they’re initiating their US launch of digital wallets Skrill and Neteller, with higher limits and [real-time pay-in/pay-out](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/skrill-usa-enhances-digital-wallet-080000953.html), which they say “fills a gap in the U.S. market.”
Some theorize that Paysafe’s competitive threat is the reason it’s being shorted, so as to inhibit the company’s ability to raise capital for further acquisitions, or to prime them for a buyout. But the company has leverage to spare and, when asked directly about a buyout, the CEO was very clear that they are not interested.
Speculation aside, bears who claim Paysafe will lose to competitors generally ignore how large, established, specialized and diversified Paysafe is in the global marketplace. With its focus on niche verticals, Paysafe is the undisputed leader in iGaming; it owns the second largest digital wallet in the world; it is #4 globally in integrated payment processing; it does over $100 billion in volume; it is used in 120 countries, and it is so good at multi-jurisdictional regulatory monitoring and risk management that other payment processors often use them as a middle man for transactions.
This last point is a key differentiator for Paysafe. CEO McHugh: “Because it’s complicated, the risk and regulatory management in payments and gaming at a global scale is not something that’s easy to copy.” He further notes, “We can de-risk some transactions where the market has abandoned many of these players…we bring millions of consumers into the ecosystem.”
Paysafe’s regulatory expertise enables them to innovate and enhance their moat with new risk-management solutions in different industries like their recently developed travel safeguarding [model](https://www.paysafe.com/fileadmin/content/pdf/Safeguarding-the-future-of-travel.pdf). It’s also a major reason why most iGaming operators use Paysafe’s [award winning](https://www.yogonet.com/international/noticias/2021/05/31/57794-paysafe-wins-payments-provider-award) platform (which, like any good pick and shovel play, makes them immune to the lack of brand loyalty among sports bettors who tend to migrate between iGaming operators).
Often embedded behind the scenes so that customers don’t know they are using it, Paysafe offers a trusted payment gateway that so effectively mitigates transaction liability that it is commonly used as a hidden partner. They work with [MasterCard](https://www.mastercard.com/news/europe/en-uk/newsroom/press-releases/en-gb/2020/march/paysafe-and-mastercard-extend-strategic-partnership/), Visa, Fiserv, [WorldPay](https://www.infinicept.com/payment-facilitator/archive/game-on-for-worldpay-and-paysafe/)(US DraftKings), [Apple Pay](https://www.paysafe.com/us-en/apple-pay/), [Google Pay](https://www.paysafe.com/us-en/google-pay/), [PayPal](https://developer.paysafe.com/en/rest-apis/paysafe-payments-api/payments-api/payment-methods/paypal/), [Sightline](https://developer.paysafe.com/en/rest-apis/paysafe-payments-api/payments-api/payment-methods/sightline/), REPAY, Intellipay, and a host of others. Paysafe is also behind the roll-out of the [award](https://www.paysafe.com/de-en/paysafegroup/news/detail/paysafe-wins-two-payments-awards/) winning [Coinbase/Visa](https://www.thepower50.com/paysafe-issues-coinbases-new-visa-debit-card-enabling-easier-cryptocurrency-spending/) card. In most cases it would take years of significant investment for others to match Paysafe’s level of monitoring, risk management and underwriting. It’s often easier for a "competitor" to just give them a cut of the take. CEO McHugh notes, “That’s where we get broader and deeper take rates over time. We process with Worldpay and have a capability with Fiserv as well, so we do multi-processor there.” And Danny Chazonoff, COO, adds, “In Europe, we are the acquirer of record, so we have a principal membership with Visa and MasterCard. What that brings for us is the ability to do our own underwriting without any intervention at all from an acquiring bank.”
Rather than competing directly with other payment processors, Paysafe's angle is to quietly work with everyone. This is partly why Bill Foley describes Paysafe as “ubiquitous. It’s just everywhere.”
Having cited a potential $58 trillion total addressable market, rather than competing in the general retail space, they focus on drilling down in “hard to do, hard to copy” niche verticals. CEO McHugh: “That’s why we like the deep verticals as opposed to trying to go head to head in the more general retail space which is more susceptible to scale economics.”
Through its emerging Unity Platform, Paysafe is also differentiating itself with a single cloud-based payment gateway that synthesizes a large [suite](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1833835/000119312521055290/d18419df4a.htm) of interconnected products and payment rails:
* credit and debit card processing
* integrated eCommerce processing
* online banking with real-time bank payments
* ACH check transactions
* digital wallets with real-time pay-in/pay-out functionality
* person to person payments in 40 currencies
* eCash solutions to digitize cash reaching a massive underbanked consumer base
* 38 cryptocurrencies in over 90 markets
* trading crypto and stocks in the wallet
* international money transfers
* branded gift card management
* recurring billing
* data mining for targeted direct marketing
* travel safeguarding for most major airlines
* tokenization and encryption (NFTs)
* in-store brick-and-mortar frictionless checkout (with competitive scalable pricing for a wider range of business sizes)
As the CEO points out, “Merchants just want sales regardless of payment method…There are very few competitors that can compete with us across all of the products…we continue to see the combination of our eCommerce gateway, digital wallets, online banking, and eCash solutions as a true differentiator in the market…The company that can synthesize that onto one platform will do very well."
# Reviews:
While on the topic of competition, Bears who apparently aren’t aware of Paysafe’s award winning consumer products like [Paysafecard](https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/PAYSAFE-LIMITED-120977165/news/Paysafe-Paysafecard-wins-Hermes-Business-Award-2021-36750942/) and [Skrill](https://www.paymentexpert.com/2019/11/01/skrill-wins-best-digital-wallet-at-juniper-research-2019-awards/), often point to an odd Trustpilot 1.9/5 star rating of nondescript “Paysafe” with only 287 reviews.
Meanwhile, they ignore Trustpilot ratings of Paysafe’s actual consumer-facing products like:
* Paysafecard: “Excellent” (4.7/5 stars) [43K reviews](https://www.trustpilot.com/review/www.paysafecard.com)
* Skrill: “great” (4/5 stars) [19K reviews](https://www.trustpilot.com/review/skrill.com)
* Skrill Money Transfer: “Excellent” (4.7/5 stars) [9K reviews](https://www.trustpilot.com/review/transfers.skrill.com)
By contrast, Trustpilot rates competitors:
* PayPal: “bad" (1.2/5 stars) [20K reviews](https://www.trustpilot.com/review/www.paypal.com)
* Stripe: “Average” (3.3/5 stars) [6.6K reviews](https://www.trustpilot.com/review/stripe.com)
* Cash App: “bad” (1.2/5 stars) [3K reviews](https://www.trustpilot.com/review/cash.app)
* Zelle: “bad” (1.1/5 stars) [398 reviews](https://www.trustpilot.com/review/zellepay.com)
* Venmo: “bad” (1.3/5 stars) [281 reviews](https://www.trustpilot.com/review/venmo.com)
Note: This is not to bash competitors, but to point out how the bear argument is essentially meaningless. To be fair, those competing platforms get much better Apple mobile app reviews but, even there, Paysafe’s digital wallet Skrill gets a respectable, [4.4 out of 5 stars](https://apps.apple.com/us/app/skrill-pay-transfer-money/id718248239) with 7.2K ratings. And at GooglePlay, their Paysafecard gets 4.3/5 stars with over [103K reviews](https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=at.paysafecard.android&referrer=adjust_reftag%3DcIGmAvoU2TFcK%26utm_source%3DWebsite%2B-%2BApp%2BSeite).
​
Continue to [Parts 8-10](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/qmke65/gaining_visibility_on_paysafe_psfe_parts_810/).
| 1,635,951,270
|
2021-11-03 14:54:30
|
greensymbiote
| 45
| 4
| 0.92
|
Company Discussion
|
/r/stocks/comments/qlw7ro/peeling_back_the_layers_on_paysafe_psfe_parts_57/
|
https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/qlw7ro/peeling_back_the_layers_on_paysafe_psfe_parts_57/
|
stocks
|
3m
|
qg55ca
|
(10/26) Tuesday's Pre-Market Stock Movers & News
|
#Good morning traders and investors of the r/stocks sub! Welcome to Tuesday! Here are your pre-market stock movers & news on this Tuesday, October 26th, 2021-
*****
# [Dow futures up more than 100 points after closing at record, with big tech earnings on deck](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/25/stock-market-futures-open-close.html)
*****
> U.S. stock futures rose in morning trading Tuesday as investors await a slew of major technology earnings with the broader market at a record high.
*****
> Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were up about 114 points. S&P 500 futures gained 0.4% and Nasdaq 100 futures traded 0.6% higher.
*****
> Shares of social media giant Facebook ticked 2.3% higher in premarket trading after the company topped analysts’ earnings expectations. Facebook missed expectations for revenue and monthly active users.
*****
> United Parcel Service also saw its shares increase 2% premarket after the shipping firm posting strong beats on profit and revenue across all business segments.
*****
> In other earning news, Dow component 3M gained 2.2% premarket after beating earnings on the top and bottom lines.
*****
> General Electric rose 1.4% in premarket trading after the company issued an upward revision to its full-year earnings forecast while reporting higher than expected third-quarter profit.
*****
> “Earnings season is off to another great start, but now the big test is will the big tech names step up? With stocks at all-time highs, the bar is indeed quite high and tech will need to impress to help justify stocks at current levels,” said Ryan Detrick, chief financial strategist at LPL Financial.
*****
> Of the 119companies in the S&P 500 that have reported earnings, 83% beat expectations, according to Refinitiv. S&P 500 companies are expected to grow profit by about 35% in the third quarter.
*****
> The blue-chip Dow and S&P 500 closed at record highs on Monday. The Dow gained 64 points. The S&P 500 gained 0.5%, helped by a 12% rally in Tesla’s stock as the electric carmaker hit a $1 trillion market capitalization for the first time.
*****
> The Nasdaq Composite was the outperformer, rising 0.9%. The technology-focused average is about 1.1% from its record high.
*****
> Technology darlings Alphabet and Microsoft traded higher heading into their earnings reports after the bell on Tuesday. Microsoft bulls are expecting a strong quarter for Microsoft, bolstered by its key Azure business. Analysts are expecting Alphabet earnings to come in 43% higher year over year.
*****
> Twitter, Advanced Micro Devices and Robinhood also report quarterly earnings after the bell on Tuesday.
*****
> Shares of Intercontinental Exchange jumped 3.7% premarket, the day after CNBC reported that Mastercard will partner with ICE’s spinoff Bakkt in a move to allow customers to integrate into their products. ICE will provide behind-the-scenes custodial services for those that sign up.
*****
#STOCK FUTURES CURRENTLY:
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR STOCK FUTURES CHARTS!](https://finviz.com/futures.ashx)**)
*****
#YESTERDAY'S MARKET MAP:
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR YESTERDAY'S MARKET MAP!](https://i.imgur.com/uUssNLX.png)**)
*****
#TODAY'S MARKET MAP:
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR TODAY'S MARKET MAP!](https://finviz.com/map.ashx)**)
*****
#YESTERDAY'S S&P SECTORS:
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR YESTERDAY'S S&P SECTORS CHART!](https://i.imgur.com/9LJKsto.png)**)
*****
#TODAY'S S&P SECTORS:
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR TODAY'S S&P SECTORS CHART!](https://finviz.com/groups.ashx)**)
*****
#TODAY'S ECONOMIC CALENDAR:
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR TODAY'S ECONOMIC CALENDAR!](https://i.imgur.com/xJx7Ru7.png)**)
*****
#THIS WEEK'S ECONOMIC CALENDAR:
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR THIS WEEK'S ECONOMIC CALENDAR!](https://i.imgur.com/DgoH0Ek.png)**)
*****
#THIS WEEK'S UPCOMING IPO'S:
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR THIS WEEK'S UPCOMING IPO'S!](https://i.imgur.com/Hf5aMlH.png)**)
*****
#THIS WEEK'S EARNINGS CALENDAR:
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR THIS WEEK'S EARNINGS CALENDAR!](https://i.imgur.com/wuN1x1X.png)**)
*****
#THIS MORNING'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS CALENDAR:
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR THIS MORNING'S EARNINGS CALENDAR!](https://i.imgur.com/EXV1LJr.jpg)**)
*****
#EARNINGS RELEASES BEFORE THE OPEN TODAY:
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR THIS MORNING'S EARNINGS RELEASES LINK #1!](https://i.imgur.com/c1nqKIA.png)**)
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR THIS MORNING'S EARNINGS RELEASES LINK #2!](https://i.imgur.com/6GZdAew.png)**)
*****
#EARNINGS RELEASES AFTER THE CLOSE TODAY:
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR THIS AFTERNOON'S EARNINGS RELEASES LINK #1!](https://i.imgur.com/ec0o6KI.png)**)
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR THIS AFTERNOON'S EARNINGS RELEASES LINK #2!](https://i.imgur.com/jZyUCj5.png)**)
*****
#YESTERDAY'S ANALYST UPGRADES/DOWNGRADES:
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR YESTERDAY'S ANALYST UPGRADES/DOWNGRADES LINK #1!](https://i.imgur.com/Rl7ZlZ8.png)**)
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR YESTERDAY'S ANALYST UPGRADES/DOWNGRADES LINK #2!](https://i.imgur.com/Icn6pgF.png)**)
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR YESTERDAY'S ANALYST UPGRADES/DOWNGRADES LINK #3!](https://i.imgur.com/WkN1rAx.png)**)
*****
#YESTERDAY'S INSIDER TRADING FILINGS:
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR YESTERDAY'S INSIDER TRADING FILINGS!](https://i.imgur.com/7hhEGXi.png)**)
*****
#TODAY'S DIVIDEND CALENDAR:
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR TODAY'S DIVIDEND CALENDAR LINK!](https://i.imgur.com/BtRP4zw.png)**)
*****
#THIS MORNING'S STOCK NEWS MOVERS:
######(**source: [cnbc.com](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/26/stocks-making-the-biggest-moves-in-the-premarket-polaris-ups-corning-coinbase-and-more.html)**)
*****
> **Facebook (FB)** – Facebook gained 1.9% in the premarket after reporting mixed results for the second quarter. Facebook beat estimates by 3 cents a share, with quarterly earnings of $3.22 per share. Revenue missed, however, as ad sales growth slowed in the face of Apple’s (AAPL) new privacy restrictions.
> #**STOCK SYMBOL:** FB
> * [CLICK HERE FOR CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=FB&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)
> ######(**[CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!](http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/FB)**)
*****
> **General Electric (GE)** – GE beat estimates by 14 cents a share, with quarterly profit of 57 cents per share. Revenue came in below analysts’ forecasts, however. The company also reported better-than-expected free cash flow. Its shares rose 1.4% in premarket trading.
> #**STOCK SYMBOL:** GE
> * [CLICK HERE FOR CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=GE&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)
> ######(**[CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!](http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/GE)**)
*****
> **Tesla (TSLA)** – Tesla remains on watch after the company passed the $1 trillion dollar mark in value during Monday’s trading. The stock is riding a 10-session win streak, but Tesla shares fell 0.4% in premarket trading.
> #**STOCK SYMBOL:** TSLA
> * [CLICK HERE FOR CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=TSLA&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)
> ######(**[CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!](http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/TSLA)**)
*****
> **Polaris (PII)** – The recreational vehicle maker’s stock tumbled 5.9% in premarket action after the company cut its full-year outlook, hurt by supply chain constraints. Polaris matched estimates with quarterly earnings of $1.98 per share. Revenue fell short of consensus.
> #**STOCK SYMBOL:** PII
> * [CLICK HERE FOR CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=PII&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)
> ######(**[CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!](http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/PII)**)
*****
> **United Parcel Service (UPS)** – UPS rallied 5% in the premarket following better-than-expected results. UPS reported quarterly earnings of $2.71 per share, 16 cents a share above estimates. Revenue also topped forecasts on strong e-commerce demand.
> #**STOCK SYMBOL:** UPS
> * [CLICK HERE FOR CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=UPS&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)
> ######(**[CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!](http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/UPS)**)
*****
> **Corning (GLW)** – The glass and specialty materials maker fell 3.4% in the premarket after it reported that the automotive industry production slowdown impacted its quarterly results. Corning missed estimates by 2 cents a share, with quarterly earnings of 56 cents per share. Revenue also missed forecasts.
> #**STOCK SYMBOL:** GLW
> * [CLICK HERE FOR CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=GLW&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)
> ######(**[CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!](http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/GLW)**)
*****
> **Eli Lilly (LLY)** – The drugmaker’s shares gained 1% in premarket action despite a 4 cents a share quarterly earnings miss, with profit of $1.94 per share. Revenue beat forecasts, but Lilly spent more money during the quarter on research and development. The company also raised its full-year outlook.
> #**STOCK SYMBOL:** LLY
> * [CLICK HERE FOR CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=LLY&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)
> ######(**[CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!](http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/LLY)**)
*****
> **3M (MMM)** – 3M reported quarterly earnings of $2.45 per share, compared to a consensus estimate of $2.20 a share. Revenue exceeded Street forecasts. 3M saw increased demand during the quarter for both its consumer and industrial segments.
> #**STOCK SYMBOL:** MMM
> * [CLICK HERE FOR CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=MMM&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)
> ######(**[CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!](http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/MMM)**)
*****
> **Hasbro (HAS)** – Hasbro beat consensus forecasts by 27 cents a share, with quarterly earnings of $1.96 per share. The toy maker’s revenue matched analysts’ projections. Hasbro warned that supply chain bottlenecks would hit holiday sales.
> #**STOCK SYMBOL:** HAS
> * [CLICK HERE FOR CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=HAS&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)
> ######(**[CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!](http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/HAS)**)
*****
> **The RealReal (REAL)** – The online seller of secondhand luxury goods saw its stock jump 4.8% in the premarket after Raymond James upgraded the stock to “outperform” from “market perform.” Raymond James cites near-term revenue strength and the prospects for profitability growth.
> #**STOCK SYMBOL:** REAL
> * [CLICK HERE FOR CHART!](http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=REAL&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)
> ######(**[CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!](http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/REAL)**)
*****
#**FULL DISCLOSURE:**
> /u/bigbear0083 has no positions in any stocks mentioned. Reddit, moderators, and the author do not advise making investment decisions based on discussion in these posts. Analysis is not subject to validation and users take action at their own risk.
*****
#**DISCUSS!**
What's on everyone's radar for today's trading day ahead here at r/stocks?
*****
# **I hope you all have an excellent trading day ahead today on this Tuesday, October 26th, 2021! :)**
| 1,635,250,713
|
2021-10-26 12:18:33
|
bigbear0083
| 12
| 3
| 0.83
| null |
/r/stocks/comments/qg55ca/1026_tuesdays_premarket_stock_movers_news/
|
https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/qg55ca/1026_tuesdays_premarket_stock_movers_news/
|
stocks
|
3m
|
qdbizt
|
Dividends w/ Reasonable Balance Sheet + Growth
|
Just wanted to share my list of recommendations to my mom when she asked for suggestions:
1. Realty Income Corporation (ticker O)
2. Walgreens Boots Alliance (ticker WBA)
3. 3M (ticker MMM)
4. Marten Transport (ticker MRTN)
5. Graham Corporation (ticker GHM)
6. Cerner Corporation (ticker CERN)
7. Argan, Inc. (ticker AGX)
8. McCormick & Company, Incorporated (ticker MKC)
9. The Kroger Co. (ticker KR)
10. KB Home (ticker KBH)
11. Molson Coors Beverage Company (ticker TAP)
12. T. Rowe Price Group, Inc. (ticker TROW)
13. General Mills, Inc. (ticker GIS)
14. Lockheed Martin Corporation (ticker LMT)
15. Schnitzer Steel Industries, Inc. (ticker SCHN)
For the most part all large established companies with high levels of institutional ownership that pay healthy dividends and have reasonable growth prospects and/or low debt.
| 1,634,886,925
|
2021-10-22 07:15:25
|
GemelosAvitia
| 44
| 42
| 0.89
| null |
/r/stocks/comments/qdbizt/dividends_w_reasonable_balance_sheet_growth/
|
https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/qdbizt/dividends_w_reasonable_balance_sheet_growth/
|
stocks
|
3m
|
q15jgs
|
How ThredUP is quietly building a moat around online second hand clothing
|
The current model used by Poshmarck, Mercari, Depop and the others operating in this space is focused on individuals selling their clothing to other individuals.
While it may seem enticing for some people to get a few extra bucks for clothing pieces they no longer wear, when you account for shipping, taxes, commissions, listings, dealing with potential buyers, returns, etc... the payout is extremely low.
Meanwhile, ThredUP has focused on a different approach, building distribution centers able to process millions of clothing pieces, operating as a vertically integrated company, investing in plant equipment and machinery that will yield great results in the future, giving them pricing power over the other platforms. By sending "Clean Out Kits", sellers can fill their boxes with clothing they want to sell and ship it to thredUP. They will process it, list it and sell it, and you will get a piece of it. ThredUP currently has 74% gross margins, with and average order value of $68. They buy from 500k sellers annually and have 1.3M active buyers on the site. The CEO has stated they are not able to meet the demand from sellers, while orders have increased 22% YoY to 1.22M just on the past quarter.
Just recently, the company announced a new 600,000-square-foot distribution center in Lancaster, Tex.
The four-level facility will house 10 million items, more than doubling the number of items in its network, bringing the total to 16.5 million items. This new distribution center is much more automated and efficient compared to the other ones, as the company is now moving more volume and has years of data to develop the distribution center detailed to their needs.
By owning distribution centers, they not only serve individuals but also clothing brands such as GAP, Rebook, Madewell, Wallmart, and many others through their RaaS program. As clothing retail companies are under scrutiny from buyers for their "fast fashion" business models running sweatshops in 3rd world countries, many clothing companies are starting to make a move towards more sustainable business practices to cater to the upcoming Gen Z. All of this will add to ThredUp bottom line.
I believe the company is doing the necessary investments and operating under a business model that will position themselves as a possible leader in the second hand clothing industry which is projected to be $77B in the next 5 years ($33B currently).
| 1,633,354,449
|
2021-10-04 13:34:09
|
bearsgotoalaskanstfu
| 24
| 22
| 0.8
| null |
/r/stocks/comments/q15jgs/how_thredup_is_quietly_building_a_moat_around/
|
https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/q15jgs/how_thredup_is_quietly_building_a_moat_around/
|
stocks
|
3m
|
q14s6v
|
(10/4) Monday's Pre-Market Stock Movers & News
|
#Good Monday morning traders and investors of the r/stocks sub! Welcome to the new trading week and a fresh start! Here are your pre-market stock movers & news on this Monday, October 4th, 2021-
*****
# [5 things to know before the stock market opens Monday](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/04/5-things-to-know-before-the-stock-market-opens-monday-oct-4.html)
*****
> # 1. Dow futures dropped after starting October with a strong rally
> * U.S. stock futures fell modestly Monday after finishing a rough week with strong rally on the first day of October. The Dow Jones Industrial Average led the way higher Friday, with an advance of 482 points, or 1.4%. The S&P 500 rose 1.2%. The Nasdaq’s 0.8% gain broke a five-session losing streak. The tech-heavy index was more than 5.2% away its latest record close on Sept. 7. The S&P 500 was nearly 4% away from its Sept. 2 record close. The Dow was more than 3.6% away from its Aug. 16 record close.
> * The month of October has a reputation for volatility, but the fourth quarter has mostly been a positive time for the market. Many strategists on Wall Street expect stocks to eclipse their recent highs after a rocky period in October. The S&P 500 has averaged outsized gains of 3.9% in the fourth quarter and was up four out of every five times since World War II, according to CFRA. September was the worst month in 2021.
*****
> # 2. U.S. trade rep to vow to enforce ‘phase one’ deal with China
> * Washington must enforce the U.S.-China phase one trade agreement, and it will raise broader policy concerns with Beijing, according to remarks set to be delivered Monday by U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai. CNBC reported last week that the top trade advisor would announce that Beijing has not complied with the phase one deal that was reached under former President Donald Trump’s administration. Tai’s speech, at 10 a.m. ET at Washington think-tank, the Center for Strategic and International Studies, will outline the Biden administration’s China trade strategy.
*****
> # 3. Troubled Evergrande set to raise more cash from partial sale
> * Indebted developer China Evergrande Group is set to sell part of its stake in its property services unit, the second asset sale in as many weeks as the liquidity-squeezed Chinese real estate giant scrambles to raise cash. Trading in shares of Evergrande and Evergrande Property Services was halted Monday morning. In a filing with the Hong Kong exchange, Evergrande said it requested the trading halt ahead of an announcement about a “major transaction.” Last week, Evergrande said it will sell a $1.5 billion stake in Shengjing Bank to a state-owned asset management firm.
*****
> # 4. Whistleblower says Facebook ‘substantially worse’ than rivals
> * Frances Haugen — a Facebook whistleblower who brought internal documents detailing the company’s research to The Wall Street Journal and Congress — revealed her identity ahead of an interview she gave to the CBS program “60 Minutes,” which aired Sunday night. The documents showed Facebook executives had been aware of negative affects of its platforms on some young users.
> * According to her website, Haugen was a former product manager on Facebook’s civic misinformation team. Haugen previously worked as a product manager at Pinterest, Yelp and Alphabet’s Google, according to her LinkedIn profile. “I’ve seen a bunch of social networks and it was substantially worse at Facebook than anything I’d seen before,” Haugen told “60 Minutes.” Shares of Facebook, down 10% in the past month, fell nearly 1% in Monday’s premarket.
*****
> # 5. Tesla beats expectations with Q3 deliveries despite delays
> * Shares of Tesla — up close to 10% year to date — rose nearly 3% in the premarket after the company said Saturday it delivered a better-than-expected 241,300 electric vehicles during the third quarter of 2021. The company produced 237,823 cars in the quarter. Most were Model 3 and Y vehicles, the more affordable mid-range offerings. The rest were the higher-end Model S and X vehicles. Tesla does not break out delivery numbers by model, nor does it report sales or production numbers from China versus the U.S. In its Saturday press release, Tesla acknowledged delivery delays during the quarter, blaming them on “global supply chain and logistics challenges.” It also thanked customers for their patience.
*****
#STOCK FUTURES CURRENTLY:
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR STOCK FUTURES CHARTS!](https://finviz.com/futures.ashx)**)
*****
#LAST WEEK'S MARKET MAP:
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR LAST WEEK'S MARKET MAP!](https://i.imgur.com/hcFVyy5.png)**)
*****
#TODAY'S MARKET MAP:
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR TODAY'S MARKET MAP!](https://finviz.com/map.ashx)**)
*****
#LAST WEEK'S S&P SECTORS:
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR LAST WEEK'S S&P SECTORS CHART!](https://i.imgur.com/18AQjOe.png)**)
*****
#TODAY'S S&P SECTORS:
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR TODAY'S S&P SECTORS CHART!](https://finviz.com/groups.ashx)**)
*****
#TODAY'S ECONOMIC CALENDAR:
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR TODAY'S ECONOMIC CALENDAR!](https://i.imgur.com/onuVkl9.png)**)
*****
#THIS WEEK'S ECONOMIC CALENDAR:
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR THIS WEEK'S ECONOMIC CALENDAR!](https://i.imgur.com/RtabSpV.png)**)
*****
#THIS WEEK'S UPCOMING IPO'S:
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR THIS WEEK'S UPCOMING IPO'S!](https://i.imgur.com/XbTWADD.png)**)
*****
#THIS WEEK'S EARNINGS CALENDAR:
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR THIS WEEK'S EARNINGS CALENDAR!](https://i.imgur.com/aubwMW2.png)**)
*****
#THIS MORNING'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS CALENDAR:
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR THIS MORNING'S EARNINGS CALENDAR!]()**)
(NONE.)
*****
#EARNINGS RELEASES BEFORE THE OPEN TODAY:
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR THIS MORNING'S EARNINGS RELEASES!]()**)
(NONE.)
*****
#EARNINGS RELEASES AFTER THE CLOSE TODAY:
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR THIS AFTERNOON'S EARNINGS RELEASES!](https://i.imgur.com/amkF4UJ.png)**)
*****
#FRIDAY'S ANALYST UPGRADES/DOWNGRADES:
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S ANALYST UPGRADES/DOWNGRADES LINK #1!](https://i.imgur.com/JeByjl1.png)**)
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S ANALYST UPGRADES/DOWNGRADES LINK #2!](https://i.imgur.com/4dO1a3g.png)**)
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S ANALYST UPGRADES/DOWNGRADES LINK #3!](https://i.imgur.com/vOWwHAb.png)**)
*****
#FRIDAY'S INSIDER TRADING FILINGS:
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S INSIDER TRADING FILINGS!](https://i.imgur.com/3XPmdUb.png)**)
*****
#TODAY'S DIVIDEND CALENDAR:
######(**[CLICK HERE FOR TODAY'S DIVIDEND CALENDAR!](https://i.imgur.com/F3XvB4n.png)**)
*****
#THIS MORNING'S MOST ACTIVE TRENDING TICKERS ON STOCKTWITS:
* TSLA
* WISH
* AMPY
* MRNA
* BAC
* GM
* JSPR
* XENE
* CHPT
* NVCR
*****
#THIS MORNING'S STOCK NEWS MOVERS:
######(**source: [cnbc.com](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/04/stocks-making-the-biggest-moves-in-the-premarket-tesla-moderna-novavax-gm-and-more.html)**)
*****
> **Tesla (TSLA)** – Tesla shares rose 3% in the premarket after the company announced it delivered 241,300 vehicles during the third quarter, its most ever for a quarter and a 73% increase over the same quarter a year ago.
> #**STOCK SYMBOL:** TSLA
> * [CLICK HERE FOR CHART!](http://charts.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=TSLA&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)
> ######(**[CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!](http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/TSLA)**)
*****
> **Moderna (MRNA), Novavax (NVAX)** – Moderna and Novavax shares are under pressure once again this morning. Both Covid-19 vaccine makers saw double-digit percentage losses Friday, following news of Merck’s (MRK) successful late-stage trial for its new anti-viral pill. Moderna fell 4% in premarket trading, while Novavax slid 3.3%. Merck rallied another 2.7% in the premarket following Friday’s 8.4% surge.
> #**STOCK SYMBOL:** MRNA
> * [CLICK HERE FOR CHART!](http://charts.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=MRNA&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)
> ######(**[CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!](http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/MRNA)**)
*****
> #**STOCK SYMBOL:** NVAX
> * [CLICK HERE FOR CHART!](http://charts.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=NVAX&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)
> ######(**[CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!](http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/NVAX)**)
*****
> **General Motors (GM)** – Hedge fund Engine No. 1 announced its support for GM’s goal to have a 100% electric car portfolio by 2035, as well as an investment in the automaker. Engine No. 1 gained prominence earlier this year by successfully placing three climate-focused independent directors on Exxon Mobil’s (XOM) board.
> #**STOCK SYMBOL:** GM
> * [CLICK HERE FOR CHART!](http://charts.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=GM&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)
> ######(**[CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!](http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/GM)**)
*****
> **Delta Air Lines (DAL)** – Delta reinstated its original third-quarter revenue forecast, after cutting it a month ago. CEO Ed Bastian said ticket sales stabilized and then improved, and the airline is also expecting 2022 domestic bookings to surpass pre-pandemic levels. Delta will report third-quarter results on October 13.
> #**STOCK SYMBOL:** DAL
> * [CLICK HERE FOR CHART!](http://charts.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=DAL&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)
> ######(**[CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!](http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/DAL)**)
*****
> **Southwest Airlines (LUV)** – Southwest added 1.4% in premarket trading after Barclays upgraded the stock to “overweight” from “equal weight,” saying it sees bluer skies ahead for airlines and that it favors low-cost, low-fare carriers like Southwest.
> #**STOCK SYMBOL:** LUV
> * [CLICK HERE FOR CHART!](http://charts.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=LUV&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)
> ######(**[CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!](http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/LUV)**)
*****
> **Sun Life Financial (SLF)** – The financial services company struck a deal to buy oral health care provider DentaQuest for $2.47 billion in cash. The transaction is aimed at increasing Sun Life’s employee benefits offerings.
> #**STOCK SYMBOL:** SLF
> * [CLICK HERE FOR CHART!](http://charts.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=SLF&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)
> ######(**[CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!](http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/SLF)**)
*****
> **3M (MMM)** – 3M fell 1.5% in the premarket after J.P. Morgan Securities downgraded the stock to “neutral” from “overweight,” citing a lack of “fundamental direction” for the company.
> #**STOCK SYMBOL:** MMM
> * [CLICK HERE FOR CHART!](http://charts.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=MMM&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)
> ######(**[CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!](http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/MMM)**)
*****
> **Roper Technologies (ROP)** – Roper is selling its engineering solutions unit TransCore to Singapore Technologies Engineering for $2.68 billion. TransCore focuses on safety solutions for roads, bridges and tunnels.
> #**STOCK SYMBOL:** ROP
> * [CLICK HERE FOR CHART!](http://charts.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=ROP&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)
> ######(**[CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!](http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/ROP)**)
*****
> **Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)** – Johnson & Johnson is planning to ask the Food and Drug Administration this week to authorize a booster shot for its Covid-19 vaccine, according to The New York Times citing officials familiar with the company’s plans.
> #**STOCK SYMBOL:** JNJ
> * [CLICK HERE FOR CHART!](http://charts.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=JNJ&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)
> ######(**[CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!](http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/JNJ)**)
*****
> **Amazon.com (AMZN)** – Amazon released what it is billing as “Black Friday-worthy” deals – nearly eight weeks before the actual Black Friday date. Amazon also announced a program that will allow Prime members to send gifts using just a mobile phone number or email, without having to know the recipient’s address.
> #**STOCK SYMBOL:** AMZN
> * [CLICK HERE FOR CHART!](http://charts.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=AMZN&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_50,sma_200,sma_20,sma_100,bb_20_2,rsi_b_14,macd_b_12_26_9,stofu_b_14_3_3&p=d&s=l)
> ######(**[CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!](http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/AMZN)**)
*****
#**DISCUSS!**
What's on everyone's radar for today's trading day ahead here at r/stocks?
*****
# **I hope you all have an excellent trading day ahead today on this Monday, October 4th, 2021! :)**
| 1,633,351,801
|
2021-10-04 12:50:01
|
bigbear0083
| 62
| 2
| 0.89
| null |
/r/stocks/comments/q14s6v/104_mondays_premarket_stock_movers_news/
|
https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/q14s6v/104_mondays_premarket_stock_movers_news/
|
stocks
|
3m
|
Subsets and Splits
No community queries yet
The top public SQL queries from the community will appear here once available.