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Nov 20

BAPO: Stabilizing Off-Policy Reinforcement Learning for LLMs via Balanced Policy Optimization with Adaptive Clipping

Reinforcement learning (RL) has recently become the core paradigm for aligning and strengthening large language models (LLMs). Yet, applying RL in off-policy settings--where stale data from past policies are used for training--improves sample efficiency, but remains challenging: policy entropy declines sharply, optimization often becomes unstable and may even collapse. Through theoretical and empirical analysis, we identify two key insights: (i) an imbalance in optimization, where negative-advantage samples dominate the policy gradient, suppressing useful behaviors and risking gradient explosions; and (ii) the derived Entropy-Clip Rule, which reveals that the fixed clipping mechanism in PPO-like objectives systematically blocks entropy-increasing updates, thereby driving the policy toward over-exploitation at the expense of exploration. Building on these insights, we propose BAlanced Policy Optimization with Adaptive Clipping (BAPO), a simple yet effective method that dynamically adjusts clipping bounds to adaptively re-balance positive and negative contributions, preserve entropy, and stabilize RL optimization. Across diverse off-policy scenarios--including sample replay and partial rollout--BAPO achieves fast, stable, and data-efficient training. On AIME 2024 and AIME 2025 benchmarks, our 7B BAPO model surpasses open-source counterparts such as SkyWork-OR1-7B, while our 32B BAPO model not only achieves state-of-the-art results among models of the same scale but also outperforms leading proprietary systems like o3-mini and Gemini-2.5-Flash-Thinking.

Experience-Guided Adaptation of Inference-Time Reasoning Strategies

Enabling agentic AI systems to adapt their problem-solving approaches based on post-training interactions remains a fundamental challenge. While systems that update and maintain a memory at inference time have been proposed, existing designs only steer the system by modifying textual input to a language model or agent, which means that they cannot change sampling parameters, remove tools, modify system prompts, or switch between agentic and workflow paradigms. On the other hand, systems that adapt more flexibly require offline optimization and remain static once deployed. We present Experience-Guided Reasoner (EGuR), which generates tailored strategies -- complete computational procedures involving LLM calls, tools, sampling parameters, and control logic -- dynamically at inference time based on accumulated experience. We achieve this using an LLM-based meta-strategy -- a strategy that outputs strategies -- enabling adaptation of all strategy components (prompts, sampling parameters, tool configurations, and control logic). EGuR operates through two components: a Guide generates multiple candidate strategies conditioned on the current problem and structured memory of past experiences, while a Consolidator integrates execution feedback to improve future strategy generation. This produces complete, ready-to-run strategies optimized for each problem, which can be cached, retrieved, and executed as needed without wasting resources. Across five challenging benchmarks (AIME 2025, 3-SAT, and three Big Bench Extra Hard tasks), EGuR achieves up to 14% accuracy improvements over the strongest baselines while reducing computational costs by up to 111x, with both metrics improving as the system gains experience.

Learning from Peers in Reasoning Models

Large Reasoning Models (LRMs) have the ability to self-correct even when they make mistakes in their reasoning paths. However, our study reveals that when the reasoning process starts with a short but poor beginning, it becomes difficult for the model to recover. We refer to this phenomenon as the "Prefix Dominance Trap". Inspired by psychological findings that peer interaction can promote self-correction without negatively impacting already accurate individuals, we propose **Learning from Peers** (LeaP) to address this phenomenon. Specifically, every tokens, each reasoning path summarizes its intermediate reasoning and shares it with others through a routing mechanism, enabling paths to incorporate peer insights during inference. However, we observe that smaller models sometimes fail to follow summarization and reflection instructions effectively. To address this, we fine-tune them into our **LeaP-T** model series. Experiments on AIME 2024, AIME 2025, AIMO 2025, and GPQA Diamond show that LeaP provides substantial improvements. For instance, QwQ-32B with LeaP achieves nearly 5 absolute points higher than the baseline on average, and surpasses DeepSeek-R1-671B on three math benchmarks with an average gain of 3.3 points. Notably, our fine-tuned LeaP-T-7B matches the performance of DeepSeek-R1-Distill-Qwen-14B on AIME 2024. In-depth analysis reveals LeaP's robust error correction by timely peer insights, showing strong error tolerance and handling varied task difficulty. LeaP marks a milestone by enabling LRMs to collaborate during reasoning. Our code, datasets, and models are available at https://learning-from-peers.github.io/ .

  • 8 authors
·
May 12 4

Every Step Evolves: Scaling Reinforcement Learning for Trillion-Scale Thinking Model

We present Ring-1T, the first open-source, state-of-the-art thinking model with a trillion-scale parameter. It features 1 trillion total parameters and activates approximately 50 billion per token. Training such models at a trillion-parameter scale introduces unprecedented challenges, including train-inference misalignment, inefficiencies in rollout processing, and bottlenecks in the RL system. To address these, we pioneer three interconnected innovations: (1) IcePop stabilizes RL training via token-level discrepancy masking and clipping, resolving instability from training-inference mismatches; (2) C3PO++ improves resource utilization for long rollouts under a token budget by dynamically partitioning them, thereby obtaining high time efficiency; and (3) ASystem, a high-performance RL framework designed to overcome the systemic bottlenecks that impede trillion-parameter model training. Ring-1T delivers breakthrough results across critical benchmarks: 93.4 on AIME-2025, 86.72 on HMMT-2025, 2088 on CodeForces, and 55.94 on ARC-AGI-v1. Notably, it attains a silver medal-level result on the IMO-2025, underscoring its exceptional reasoning capabilities. By releasing the complete 1T parameter MoE model to the community, we provide the research community with direct access to cutting-edge reasoning capabilities. This contribution marks a significant milestone in democratizing large-scale reasoning intelligence and establishes a new baseline for open-source model performance.

inclusionAI inclusionAI
·
Oct 21 3

DeepPrune: Parallel Scaling without Inter-trace Redundancy

Parallel scaling has emerged as a powerful paradigm to enhance reasoning capabilities in large language models (LLMs) by generating multiple Chain-of-Thought (CoT) traces simultaneously. However, this approach introduces significant computational inefficiency due to inter-trace redundancy -- our analysis reveals that over 80% of parallel reasoning traces yield identical final answers, representing substantial wasted computation. To address this critical efficiency bottleneck, we propose DeepPrune, a novel framework that enables efficient parallel scaling through dynamic pruning. Our method features a specialized judge model trained with focal loss and oversampling techniques to accurately predict answer equivalence from partial reasoning traces which realizes 0.87 AUROC on equivalence prediction, combined with an online greedy clustering algorithm that dynamically prunes redundant paths while preserving answer diversity. Comprehensive evaluations across three challenging benchmarks (AIME 2024, AIME 2025, and GPQA) and multiple reasoning models demonstrate that DeepPrune achieves remarkable token reduction by over 80% compared to conventional consensus sampling on most cases, while maintaining competitive accuracy within 3 percentage points. Our work establishes a new standard for efficient parallel reasoning, making high-performance reasoning more efficient. Our code and data are here: https://deepprune.github.io/

Solve-Detect-Verify: Inference-Time Scaling with Flexible Generative Verifier

Large Language Model (LLM) reasoning for complex tasks inherently involves a trade-off between solution accuracy and computational efficiency. The subsequent step of verification, while intended to improve performance, further complicates this landscape by introducing its own challenging trade-off: sophisticated Generative Reward Models (GenRMs) can be computationally prohibitive if naively integrated with LLMs at test-time, while simpler, faster methods may lack reliability. To overcome these challenges, we introduce FlexiVe, a novel generative verifier that flexibly balances computational resources between rapid, reliable fast thinking and meticulous slow thinking using a Flexible Allocation of Verification Budget strategy. We further propose the Solve-Detect-Verify pipeline, an efficient inference-time scaling framework that intelligently integrates FlexiVe, proactively identifying solution completion points to trigger targeted verification and provide focused solver feedback. Experiments show FlexiVe achieves superior accuracy in pinpointing errors within reasoning traces on ProcessBench. Furthermore, on challenging mathematical reasoning benchmarks (AIME 2024, AIME 2025, and CNMO), our full approach outperforms baselines like self-consistency in reasoning accuracy and inference efficiency. Our system offers a scalable and effective solution to enhance LLM reasoning at test time.

  • 6 authors
·
May 17 2

Implicit Actor Critic Coupling via a Supervised Learning Framework for RLVR

Recent advances in Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR) have empowered large language models (LLMs) to tackle challenging reasoning tasks such as mathematics and programming. RLVR leverages verifiable outcome rewards to guide policy optimization, enabling LLMs to progressively improve output quality in a grounded and reliable manner. Despite its promise, the RLVR paradigm poses significant challenges, as existing methods often suffer from sparse reward signals and unstable policy gradient updates, particularly in RL-based approaches. To address the challenges, we propose PACS, a novel RLVR framework that achieves imPlicit Actor Critic coupling via a Supervised learning framework. By treating the outcome reward as a predictable label, we reformulate the RLVR problem into a supervised learning task over a score function parameterized by the policy model and optimized using cross-entropy loss. A detailed gradient analysis shows that this supervised formulation inherently recovers the classical policy gradient update while implicitly coupling actor and critic roles, yielding more stable and efficient training. Benchmarking on challenging mathematical reasoning tasks, PACS outperforms strong RLVR baselines, such as PPO and GRPO, achieving superior reasoning performance. For instance, PACS achieves 59.78\% at pass@256 on AIME 2025, representing improvements of 13.32 and 14.36 points over PPO and GRPO. This simple yet powerful framework offers a promising avenue for LLMs post-training with verifiable rewards. Our code and data are available as open source at https://github.com/ritzz-ai/PACS.

  • 8 authors
·
Sep 2 4

Klear-Reasoner: Advancing Reasoning Capability via Gradient-Preserving Clipping Policy Optimization

We present Klear-Reasoner, a model with long reasoning capabilities that demonstrates careful deliberation during problem solving, achieving outstanding performance across multiple benchmarks. Although there are already many excellent works related to inference models in the current community, there are still many problems with reproducing high-performance inference models due to incomplete disclosure of training details. This report provides an in-depth analysis of the reasoning model, covering the entire post-training workflow from data preparation and long Chain-of-Thought supervised fine-tuning (long CoT SFT) to reinforcement learning (RL), along with detailed ablation studies for each experimental component. For SFT data, our experiments show that a small number of high-quality data sources are more effective than a large number of diverse data sources, and that difficult samples can achieve better results without accuracy filtering. In addition, we investigate two key issues with current clipping mechanisms in RL: Clipping suppresses critical exploration signals and ignores suboptimal trajectories. To address these challenges, we propose Gradient-Preserving clipping Policy Optimization (GPPO) that gently backpropagates gradients from clipped tokens. GPPO not only enhances the model's exploration capacity but also improves its efficiency in learning from negative samples. Klear-Reasoner exhibits exceptional reasoning abilities in mathematics and programming, scoring 90.5\% on AIME 2024, 83.2\% on AIME 2025, 66.0\% on LiveCodeBench V5 and 58.1\% on LiveCodeBench V6.

  • 8 authors
·
Aug 11 4

AceReason-Nemotron: Advancing Math and Code Reasoning through Reinforcement Learning

Despite recent progress in large-scale reinforcement learning (RL) for reasoning, the training recipe for building high-performing reasoning models remains elusive. Key implementation details of frontier models, such as DeepSeek-R1, including data curation strategies and RL training recipe, are often omitted. Moreover, recent research indicates distillation remains more effective than RL for smaller models. In this work, we demonstrate that large-scale RL can significantly enhance the reasoning capabilities of strong, small- and mid-sized models, achieving results that surpass those of state-of-the-art distillation-based models. We systematically study the RL training process through extensive ablations and propose a simple yet effective approach: first training on math-only prompts, then on code-only prompts. Notably, we find that math-only RL not only significantly enhances the performance of strong distilled models on math benchmarks (e.g., +14.6% / +17.2% on AIME 2025 for the 7B / 14B models), but also code reasoning tasks (e.g., +6.8% / +5.8% on LiveCodeBench for the 7B / 14B models). In addition, extended code-only RL iterations further improve performance on code benchmarks with minimal or no degradation in math results. We develop a robust data curation pipeline to collect challenging prompts with high-quality, verifiable answers and test cases to enable verification-based RL across both domains. Finally, we identify key experimental insights, including curriculum learning with progressively increasing response lengths and the stabilizing effect of on-policy parameter updates. We find that RL not only elicits the foundational reasoning capabilities acquired during pretraining and supervised fine-tuning (e.g., distillation), but also pushes the limits of the model's reasoning ability, enabling it to solve problems that were previously unsolvable.

  • 8 authors
·
May 22 2

Kimi K2: Open Agentic Intelligence

We introduce Kimi K2, a Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) large language model with 32 billion activated parameters and 1 trillion total parameters. We propose the MuonClip optimizer, which improves upon Muon with a novel QK-clip technique to address training instability while enjoying the advanced token efficiency of Muon. Based on MuonClip, K2 was pre-trained on 15.5 trillion tokens with zero loss spike. During post-training, K2 undergoes a multi-stage post-training process, highlighted by a large-scale agentic data synthesis pipeline and a joint reinforcement learning (RL) stage, where the model improves its capabilities through interactions with real and synthetic environments. Kimi K2 achieves state-of-the-art performance among open-source non-thinking models, with strengths in agentic capabilities. Notably, K2 obtains 66.1 on Tau2-Bench, 76.5 on ACEBench (En), 65.8 on SWE-Bench Verified, and 47.3 on SWE-Bench Multilingual -- surpassing most open and closed-sourced baselines in non-thinking settings. It also exhibits strong capabilities in coding, mathematics, and reasoning tasks, with a score of 53.7 on LiveCodeBench v6, 49.5 on AIME 2025, 75.1 on GPQA-Diamond, and 27.1 on OJBench, all without extended thinking. These results position Kimi K2 as one of the most capable open-source large language models to date, particularly in software engineering and agentic tasks. We release our base and post-trained model checkpoints to facilitate future research and applications of agentic intelligence.

Rethinking Thinking Tokens: LLMs as Improvement Operators

Reasoning training incentivizes LLMs to produce long chains of thought (long CoT), which among other things, allows them to explore solution strategies with self-checking. This results in higher accuracy, but inflates context length, token/compute cost, and answer latency. We ask: Can current models leverage their metacognition to provide other combinations on this Pareto frontier, e.g., better accuracy with lower context length and/or latency? Abstractly, we view the model as an improvement operator on its own "thoughts" with a continuum of possible strategies. We identify an interesting inference family Parallel-Distill-Refine (PDR), which performs the following: (i) generate diverse drafts in parallel; (ii) distill them into a bounded, textual workspace; and (iii) refine conditioned on this workspace, producing an output that seeds the next round. Importantly, context length (hence compute cost) is controllable via degree of parallelism, and is no longer conflated with the total number of generated tokens. We report PDR instantiations of current models that give better accuracy than long CoT while incurring lower latency. Setting degree of parallelism to 1 yields an interesting subcase, Sequential Refinement (SR) (iteratively improve a single candidate answer) which provides performance superior to long CoT. Success of such model orchestrations raises the question whether further training could shift the Pareto frontier. To this end, we train an 8B thinking model with Reinforcement Learning (RL) to make it consistent with PDR as the inference method. On math tasks with verifiable answers, iterative pipelines surpass single-pass baselines at matched sequential budgets, with PDR delivering the largest gains (e.g., +11% on AIME 2024 and +9% on AIME 2025).

The Surprising Effectiveness of Negative Reinforcement in LLM Reasoning

Reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR) is a promising approach for training language models (LMs) on reasoning tasks that elicit emergent long chains of thought (CoTs). Unlike supervised learning, it updates the model using both correct and incorrect samples via policy gradients. To better understand its mechanism, we decompose the learning signal into reinforcing correct responses and penalizing incorrect ones, referred to as Positive and Negative Sample Reinforcement (PSR and NSR), respectively. We train Qwen2.5-Math-7B and Qwen3-4B on a mathematical reasoning dataset and uncover a surprising result: training with only negative samples -- without reinforcing correct responses -- can be highly effective: it consistently improves performance over the base model across the entire Pass@k spectrum (k up to 256), often matching or surpassing PPO and GRPO. In contrast, reinforcing only correct responses improves Pass@1 but degrades performance at higher k, due to reduced diversity. These inference-scaling trends highlight that solely penalizing incorrect responses may contribute more to performance than previously recognized. Through gradient analysis, we show that NSR works by suppressing incorrect generations and redistributing probability mass toward other plausible candidates, guided by the model's prior beliefs. It refines the model's existing knowledge rather than introducing entirely new behaviors. Building on this insight, we propose a simple variant of the RL objective that upweights NSR, and show that it consistently improves overall Pass@k performance on MATH, AIME 2025, and AMC23. Our code is available at https://github.com/TianHongZXY/RLVR-Decomposed.

  • 6 authors
·
Jun 2

Deep Self-Evolving Reasoning

Long-form chain-of-thought reasoning has become a cornerstone of advanced reasoning in large language models. While recent verification-refinement frameworks have enabled proprietary models to solve Olympiad-level problems, their effectiveness hinges on strong, reliable verification and correction capabilities, which remain fragile in open-weight, smaller-scale models. This work demonstrates that even with weak verification and refinement capabilities on hard tasks, the reasoning limits of such models can be substantially extended through a probabilistic paradigm we call Deep Self-Evolving Reasoning (DSER). We conceptualize iterative reasoning as a Markov chain, where each step represents a stochastic transition in the solution space. The key insight is that convergence to a correct solution is guaranteed as long as the probability of improvement marginally exceeds that of degradation. By running multiple long-horizon, self-evolving processes in parallel, DSER amplifies these small positive tendencies, enabling the model to asymptotically approach correct answers. Empirically, we apply DSER to the DeepSeek-R1-0528-Qwen3-8B model. On the challenging AIME 2024-2025 benchmark, DSER solves 5 out of 9 previously unsolvable problems and boosts overall performance, enabling this compact model to surpass the single-turn accuracy of its 600B-parameter teacher through majority voting. Beyond its immediate utility for test-time scaling, the DSER framework serves to diagnose the fundamental limitations of current open-weight reasoners. By clearly delineating their shortcomings in self-verification, refinement, and stability, our findings establish a clear research agenda for developing next-generation models with powerful, intrinsic self-evolving capabilities.

microsoft Microsoft
·
Oct 20 2

Beyond Scaling Law: A Data-Efficient Distillation Framework for Reasoning

Large language models (LLMs) demonstrate remarkable reasoning capabilities in tasks such as algorithmic coding and mathematical problem-solving. Recent methods have improved reasoning through expanded corpus and multistage training combining reinforcement learning and supervised fine-tuning. Although some methods suggest that small but targeted dataset can incentivize reasoning via only distillation, a reasoning scaling laws is still taking shape, increasing computational costs. To address this, we propose a data-efficient distillation framework (DED) that optimizes the Pareto frontier of reasoning distillation. Inspired by the on-policy learning and diverse roll-out strategies of reinforcement learning, the key idea of our approach is threefold: (1) We identify that benchmark scores alone do not determine an effective teacher model. Through comprehensive comparisons of leading reasoning LLMs, we develop a method to select an optimal teacher model. (2) While scaling distillation can enhance reasoning, it often degrades out-of-domain performance. A carefully curated, smaller corpus achieves a balanced trade-off between in-domain and out-of-domain capabilities. (3) Diverse reasoning trajectories encourage the student model to develop robust reasoning skills. We validate our method through evaluations on mathematical reasoning (AIME 2024/2025, MATH-500) and code generation (LiveCodeBench), achieving state-of-the-art results with only 0.8k carefully curated examples, bypassing the need for extensive scaling. Our systematic analysis demonstrates that DED outperforms existing methods by considering factors beyond superficial hardness, token length, or teacher model capability. This work offers a practical and efficient pathway to advanced reasoning while preserving general capabilities.

  • 14 authors
·
Aug 13

Enigmata: Scaling Logical Reasoning in Large Language Models with Synthetic Verifiable Puzzles

Large Language Models (LLMs), such as OpenAI's o1 and DeepSeek's R1, excel at advanced reasoning tasks like math and coding via Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR), but still struggle with puzzles solvable by humans without domain knowledge. We introduce Enigmata, the first comprehensive suite tailored for improving LLMs with puzzle reasoning skills. It includes 36 tasks across seven categories, each with 1) a generator that produces unlimited examples with controllable difficulty and 2) a rule-based verifier for automatic evaluation. This generator-verifier design supports scalable, multi-task RL training, fine-grained analysis, and seamless RLVR integration. We further propose Enigmata-Eval, a rigorous benchmark, and develop optimized multi-task RLVR strategies. Our trained model, Qwen2.5-32B-Enigmata, consistently surpasses o3-mini-high and o1 on the puzzle reasoning benchmarks like Enigmata-Eval, ARC-AGI (32.8%), and ARC-AGI 2 (0.6%). It also generalizes well to out-of-domain puzzle benchmarks and mathematical reasoning, with little multi-tasking trade-off. When trained on larger models like Seed1.5-Thinking (20B activated parameters and 200B total parameters), puzzle data from Enigmata further boosts SoTA performance on advanced math and STEM reasoning tasks such as AIME (2024-2025), BeyondAIME and GPQA (Diamond), showing nice generalization benefits of Enigmata. This work offers a unified, controllable framework for advancing logical reasoning in LLMs. Resources of this work can be found at https://seed-enigmata.github.io.

  • 12 authors
·
May 26 1

Datarus-R1: An Adaptive Multi-Step Reasoning LLM for Automated Data Analysis

We present Datarus-R1-14B, a 14 B-parameter open-weights language model fine-tuned from Qwen 2.5-14B-Instruct to act as a virtual data analyst and graduate-level problem solver. Datarus is trained not on isolated question-answer pairs but on full analytical trajectories including reasoning steps, code execution, error traces, self-corrections, and final conclusions, all captured in a ReAct-style notebook format spanning finance, medicine, numerical analysis, and other quantitative domains. Our training pipeline combines (i) a trajectory-centric synthetic data generator that yielded 144 000 tagged notebook episodes, (ii) a dual-reward framework blending a lightweight tag-based structural signal with a Hierarchical Reward Model (HRM) that scores both single-step soundness and end-to-end coherence, and (iii) a memory-optimized implementation of Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) featuring KV-cache reuse, sequential generation, and reference-model sharding. A cosine curriculum smoothly shifts emphasis from structural fidelity to semantic depth, reducing the format collapse and verbosity that often plague RL-aligned LLMs. A central design choice in Datarus is it dual reasoning interface. In agentic mode the model produces ReAct-tagged steps that invoke Python tools to execute real code; in reflection mode it outputs compact Chain-of-Thought (CoT) traces delimited by <think> and <answer> tags. On demanding postgraduate-level problems, Datarus exhibits an "AHA-moment" pattern: it sketches hypotheses, revises them once or twice, and converges avoiding the circular, token-inflating loops common to contemporary systems. Across standard public benchmarks Datarus surpasses similar size models and even reaches the level of larger reasoning models such as QwQ-32B achieving up to 30% higher accuracy on AIME 2024/2025 and LiveCodeBench while emitting 18-49% fewer tokens per solution.

  • 2 authors
·
Aug 18

On the Role of Temperature Sampling in Test-Time Scaling

Large language models (LLMs) can improve reasoning at inference time through test-time scaling (TTS), where multiple reasoning traces are generated and the best one is selected. Prior work shows that increasing the number of samples K steadily improves accuracy. In this paper, we demonstrate that this trend does not hold indefinitely: at large K, further scaling yields no gains, and certain hard questions remain unsolved regardless of the number of traces. Interestingly, we find that different sampling temperatures solve different subsets of problems, implying that single-temperature scaling explores only part of a model's potential. We therefore propose scaling along the temperature dimension, which enlarges the reasoning boundary of LLMs. Averaged over Qwen3 (0.6B, 1.7B, 4B, 8B) and five representative reasoning benchmarks (AIME 2024/2025, MATH500, LiveCodeBench, Hi-ToM), temperature scaling yields an additional 7.3 points over single-temperature TTS. Temperature scaling also enables base models to reach performance comparable to reinforcement learning (RL)-trained counterparts, without additional post-training. We further provide a comprehensive analysis of this phenomenon and design a multi-temperature voting method that reduces the overhead of temperature scaling. Overall, our findings suggest that TTS is more powerful than previously thought, and that temperature scaling offers a simple and effective way to unlock the latent potential of base models.

  • 3 authors
·
Oct 2

AIMI: Leveraging Future Knowledge and Personalization in Sparse Event Forecasting for Treatment Adherence

Adherence to prescribed treatments is crucial for individuals with chronic conditions to avoid costly or adverse health outcomes. For certain patient groups, intensive lifestyle interventions are vital for enhancing medication adherence. Accurate forecasting of treatment adherence can open pathways to developing an on-demand intervention tool, enabling timely and personalized support. With the increasing popularity of smartphones and wearables, it is now easier than ever to develop and deploy smart activity monitoring systems. However, effective forecasting systems for treatment adherence based on wearable sensors are still not widely available. We close this gap by proposing Adherence Forecasting and Intervention with Machine Intelligence (AIMI). AIMI is a knowledge-guided adherence forecasting system that leverages smartphone sensors and previous medication history to estimate the likelihood of forgetting to take a prescribed medication. A user study was conducted with 27 participants who took daily medications to manage their cardiovascular diseases. We designed and developed CNN and LSTM-based forecasting models with various combinations of input features and found that LSTM models can forecast medication adherence with an accuracy of 0.932 and an F-1 score of 0.936. Moreover, through a series of ablation studies involving convolutional and recurrent neural network architectures, we demonstrate that leveraging known knowledge about future and personalized training enhances the accuracy of medication adherence forecasting. Code available: https://github.com/ab9mamun/AIMI.

  • 3 authors
·
Mar 20 2